EUR/USD Longer Term Trading

You need to email me and I will help you, if I do it in here it's considered spamming.

Niced little flag formation on the EU 15, that it may go short, but before I could, she broke short.

Here is a chart, for the new traders so they can understand.

Here we go guys, the moment of truth is there....



Maarten

Yea, that was a couple of nice garbage trades down and up out of that little flag.

Impass fellows, Maartin is correct, however, if you step this out to the Monthly you will see a lot of support here. Monthly UTL along with and an old Inside Top or Nesting Doll as I like to call them. We are also smack dab at the 50% Fib from the move up from Dec of 2005 on the Monthly. Time for me to sit and watch to see where we are going and trade something else with a better entry.

Jim

Hello,
I'm new with ForexFactory and I'm Italian.
First sorry for my bad english.

Marteen your hypothesis is attractive......but what about 1,3354 as next target?

Here' s my view with weekly and 4hours charts
Bye

If the Eu does occur the bump and run reversal. Where should be the technical target profit for Bump and RUn incident. I cant find any info about this in google.

Besides a few point :
1) Did the breakout close more than 3%?
2) The support is holding there, havent been broken yet.

what do you people think is the long term trend of the eur/usd. thanks

See on the chart.

Ya, the major trendline did broke out, but for me it doesn't meet the requirement of 3%. Besides, the support 1 still holding. So, ppl might hold a long term LONG on EU.

In opposite, if we take the trendline to be broken already, then next week will be another wave of huge drop. But this is quite a nice setup to trade honestly.

No matter you take short / long, you only need to risk 200+ pips to aim for more than 400pips . SL could be place at below/above of the Trendline. TP you need to figure out yourself jor...

For me, next week will be a key for the EU. And I biased on short...

the problem of analyzing that situation is the huge amount of influences.

1. technical aspect: Euro Down ->people sell who speculate on falling Euro because of the downtrend

2. Long term interest rate difference ->people sell Euro and buy Dollar.
In short term this is very dangerous at 1.37 Euro/Usdollar because there's lot priced in. Only very long term trader should not care about it.

3. Intervention of Fed, ECB etc.

4. Big bubble of "strong Us-Dollar" in short term disregarding the housing market and the shrinking buying power behind this.

Here's what i think.

Lot's of traders and also the Fed, ECB are speculating in near term that US-Economy will recover. There are lots of hopes priced in right now.
To stabilize the Dollar, they sell Euro and buy dollar (central banks). That's why you have that strange effects right now.

The BIG BUBBLE occurs because fundamentals are completely disregarded an ignored in hope of recovering.
There are big wrong locations by the central banks, hoping the Usdollar will recover in few month and they can close the BIG positions step by step...

Don't forget: In future there's a rate CUT priced in on Fed next meeting of 0.5 Points to 1,50.... so a big driver of the Dollar could get crunched.

Short term: if long term support holds: back to 1.47
short term: if break occurs: down to 1.35 than snap back to ... ?

long term: if long term support holds and us economy tumbling maybe 1.55 or test of highs again. (->central banks have to clear their positions...don't forget)

long term: if us economy is coming back first target will be 1.25 (technical aspect) and then parity (1,00 !!) in long term.

conclusion: There big hints that in very long term parity will be there again (that means Euro/usdollar 1,00) BUT there are risks which are getting bigger and bigger that this will not occur because if we get deflation in US interest rates will go down to zero in US and this will destroy the effect which is driving the US-Dollar: speculation on rising interest rates...

Greets T.

Hey guys, I see nothing here at this point except scalping a little. This is the chart I am looking at. I will be looking for a break away from the 89 SMA one way or another. The pair I will probably be talking more about right away is Cable, because it has already crossed the 89 to the upside. I usually trade the gaps on Sunday night and that is all, usually by then the Euro may set up also.

This pair is at the 50 % Fib level pulled from November of 2005. There are people who swear by the 50 % trade on the Euro. I would look for a move North in the near future, however, one thing you have to remember, we are talking about a Monthly chart.

What a hoot. I'm looking at my open trades wondering where my one long term EJ short had got off to. Turns out the final portion of a short from 149.00 which I THOUGHT would be a long termer opened on OCT 1, just closed 2.5 trading days later at 140.00 for 900 pips. So how is someone supposed to do a long term trade when they only last a couple days...

Now what... 130 by Friday?

im big fan of 4hrs TF..so far so good..

Current price taking a breather at 238% Ext. Not shown is 262% Ext at 139.33

This thing just keeps drilling lows.

what a wild market...

phew..+30 earlier in the morning and +60 just now..well i guess i off to bed..

I love to see that in honest.