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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #118,541
  • Oct 1, 2008 1:46pm Oct 1, 2008 1:46pm
I would think GU will tank, dow will go up GJ will go up and prolly UJ will go up,
charts sure tell another storm but this is big news and should sway the market accordingly.

Quoting Jmx
Hi Malcomb14,

Like to double confirm if vote is yes jpy goes up fast(due to stock is up).

But Pound?? going down or up??

Thanks and regards
  • #118,542
  • Oct 1, 2008 1:51pm Oct 1, 2008 1:51pm
Quoting rrram2
I would think GU will tank, dow will go up GJ will go up and prolly UJ will go up,
charts sure tell another storm but this is big news and should sway the market accordingly.
Hi rrram2,

Thanks for the info as now iam currently playing euro... just to double confirm as I put a limit short at 1.4092 and tight SL 1.4107 TP 1.4000

so hopefully it will goes up due to speculating then all the way down

Thanks!!
  • #118,543
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:14pm Oct 1, 2008 2:14pm
Why am i under the impression a yes vote will cause the GU / EU to go up?

Doesn't this bail out further depreciate the dollar?
  • #118,544
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:19pm Oct 1, 2008 2:19pm
Is this the same vote they were planning for Thursday, or is this a different one?

Kind of confusing. Althought I must say I find this twist in democratic process quite interesting.....if you're big and powerful and the vote goes against you, just keep voting until the masses give up and vote for you. Our democracy in action. The commies never figured it out.


Regards....


Quoting anthonykay
what will happen if they voted yes to the bailout ?
what will be the effect on the market on the jpy crosses?
Regards, Android.
  • #118,545
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:32pm Oct 1, 2008 2:32pm
This is my opinion. And you know what they say about opinions...

Anyway, I truly feel that the Senate vote is already factored in to the current prices. It's an absolute no-brainer that it will pass. It's not a secret that most of the senators have had large contributions from large finance companies such as Lehman's, M Lynch, etc.

The bill presented to the House that was killed was going to breeze through the Senate. That was pretty much known as fact.

Sooo...Having that said, I don't think we will see anything happen until the House votes on the bill that will pass tonight in the Senate.

In the meantime, we are looking at supply and demand. The Dollar is up as it's in demand right now since it's scarce.

Just my 8 pips. (6 pip spread this time).

B
  • #118,546
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:33pm Oct 1, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting android
Is this the same vote they were planning for Thursday, or is this a different one?

Kind of confusing. Althought I must say I find this twist in democratic process quite interesting.....if you're big and powerful and the vote goes against you, just keep voting until the masses give up and vote for you. Our democracy in action. The commies never figured it out.


Regards....
Tonight's vote is the Senate which is voting on the same bill with some added perks that are meant to sway the Republicans in the House to vote Yes.

B
  • #118,547
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:38pm Oct 1, 2008 2:38pm
But if the government buys all the bad mortgages from the banks, then suddenly the banks will have all sorts of new money to loan out on new loans
and business will boom again, as to the value of those dollars that is another matter.


Quoting Cdawg
Why am i under the impression a yes vote will cause the GU / EU to go up?

Doesn't this bail out further depreciate the dollar?
  • #118,548
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:39pm Oct 1, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting bigcoupe
This is my opinion. And you know what they say about opinions...

Anyway, I truly feel that the Senate vote is already factored in to the current prices. It's an absolute no-brainer that it will pass. It's not a secret that most of the senators have had large contributions from large finance companies such as Lehman's, M Lynch, etc.

The bill presented to the House that was killed was going to breeze through the Senate. That was pretty much known as fact.

Sooo...Having that said, I don't think we will see anything happen until the House votes on the bill that will pass tonight in the Senate.

In the meantime, we are looking at supply and demand. The Dollar is up as it's in demand right now since it's scarce.

Just my 8 pips. (6 pip spread this time).

B
Agree to some degree
Nonetheless, if the market is bullish on yen cross pairs or geppy especially but why it is still at this level. It's lower than yesterday close. So, the price may already priced in as you mentioned. It looks quite bearish to me now ..
  • #118,549
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:39pm Oct 1, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting Scrat
ok, what the heck is this... up, up, up???
karmo, where did you go?
oh, i think i know what happened to the bears. an indigestion from too much fish.
I was out at the mall enjoying the day, I remain bearish based on the Daily chart, my friend
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #118,550
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:40pm Oct 1, 2008 2:40pm
Quoting karmostaji
I was out at the mall enjoying the day, I remain bearish based on the Daily chart, my friend

I am also remaining Bearish as well Karmo... we may see the 184 area before the end of the week.
  • #118,551
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:49pm Oct 1, 2008 2:49pm
I wonder if more recapitilisation will get announced after the bell.
  • #118,552
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:59pm Oct 1, 2008 2:59pm
B i agree with you that they will pass the bill its a no brainer sooner or later

but i dont think its priced into the market just yet my gut feeling is telling

me we will see 190 tonight before the leg down the technicals are bearish

but its not selling fast enough for my liking the momentum isnt there

the news will spoil the tec's until this bill is passed and things calm down

could be wrong but if i see price action moving fast to the north im going to

buy short term
  • #118,553
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:13pm Oct 1, 2008 3:13pm
Quoting cohiba pips
B i agree with you that they will pass the bill its a no brainer sooner or later

but i dont think its priced into the market just yet my gut feeling is telling

me we will see 190 tonight before the leg down the technicals are bearish

but its not selling fast enough for my liking the momentum isnt there

the news will spoil the tec's until this bill is passed and things calm down

could be wrong but if i see price action moving fast to the north im going to

buy short term
I'm holding my shorts for now. I am prepared for a large DD however if I have to take one.

In terms of the bailout, it's a no brainer that the Senate will approve the bill tonight. That's why I'm leaning towards it already priced in. Now when it comes to the House...that's up in the air. If they dont even start discussing it until Friday, are we looking at a weekend vote? Geez these guys are driving me nuts.

On a final note. I have never let fundimentals affect my trading as they are now. It's a new experience. Cant wait to get back to technicals.

B
  • #118,554
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:29pm Oct 1, 2008 3:29pm
typical i take my shorts off pop out for a bottle of coke and then she

pops looks like i might have to sit this one out
  • #118,555
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:35pm Oct 1, 2008 3:35pm
I'm out of market till voting. Gambling time Now technical side is not so good. Everything depends on US billout voting
  • #118,556
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:40pm Oct 1, 2008 3:40pm
I think direction is depending on the timeframe we are trading.

I like to paint such longterm trading maps, and I will like to see in
the coming month, if this happens.

I donīt say, that there will no bullish weeks or maybe month, but if
price breaks (or has already broken the 61.8 fibo-level?),
next serious support is in the beginning 17x.

But is it a serious support ? If I know right, the 76.4 fibo
level, is not a default fibo-level. So, if price breaks this
true 61.8 fibo level, on my charts there is no serious
support for a full full full 100 % retrace.

Just my zoomed out point of view...well, maybe trading plan,
based on fibo-levels and previous monthly candles buildung support and resistance-areas.
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  • #118,557
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:40pm Oct 1, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting LukaszH
I'm out of market till voting. Gambling time Now technical side is not so good. Everything depends on US billout voting

at the moment asl ong as the channel holds it is short the rallies ... we have passed down thru the 50 % fib retracement and likely heading towards 187.12.

Technicals are still working on smaller time frames. I would not trade anything over 15 min right now ...lol

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  • #118,558
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:44pm Oct 1, 2008 3:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Technicals are still working on smaller time frames. I would not trade anything over 15 min right now ...lol
agree but now RISK is too high imo for any trading.Last time when US said NO for billout g/j within 30sec 150 pip down :] I don't wanna go to wc back and see something like that
  • #118,559
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:49pm Oct 1, 2008 3:49pm
Guys,

You can watch them debate the bill here:

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN2_wm.aspx

B
  • #118,560
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:54pm Oct 1, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting bigcoupe
Guys,

You can watch them debate the bill here:

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN2_wm.aspx

B

Thx a lot for link

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