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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #481
  • Oct 1, 2008 12:45pm Oct 1, 2008 12:45pm
Quoting lostinspace
....and if all else fails you could just wear the market down until it submits

Why do I feel like I've just gone 10 rounds with Iron Mike, I was an honorary member of the debating society at skool!
What can I say. I must get it from Mum

Zug looks freakin sweet btw. I guesin you're not Swiss born though. Not neutral enough.
  • #482
  • Oct 1, 2008 12:52pm Oct 1, 2008 12:52pm
What? Are we done? After only 480-some posts? Not a chance. Here is my definition of luck: It is a typo. Replace the "L" with an "F" and add a "U".
  • #483
  • Oct 1, 2008 1:01pm Oct 1, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting Ted1983
I for one dont believe in luck.

agreed
  • #484
  • Oct 1, 2008 1:02pm Oct 1, 2008 1:02pm
Thats just luckin fucky!
  • #485
  • Oct 1, 2008 1:56pm Oct 1, 2008 1:56pm
Quoting fierceman
What? Are we done? After only 480-some posts? Not a chance. Here is my definition of luck: It is a typo. Replace the "L" with an "F" and add a "U".
Fucuk?
  • #486
  • Oct 1, 2008 2:58pm Oct 1, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting opie999
Ok, ok. Then let's rename it,

"Admit it - your profits are based on increasing your exposure to the favourable outcome of random events and limiting your exposure to the unfavourable outcome of random events by methodically and purposefully taking educated, calculated risks; sound money management practices; and correct planetary alignment"

Too wordy maybe?
As someone already writed, perfect! That's trading!
  • #487
  • Edited 3:26pm Oct 1, 2008 3:13pm | Edited 3:26pm
I know I said I’d left this thread. But if TD is allowed to parole himself temporarily out of his retirement, then…..

Let’s return briefly to first principles. To generalize for the sake of brevity, collective sentiment both creates, and is created by, imbalances within supply/demand, with the result that orders are placed, and price moves accordingly. This is the result of decisions made by individuals, not some random roll of the dice.

Like everybody else here, I’ve studied many, many price charts. One of the things that’s most apparent to me is how differently price behaves around prior areas of support/resistance. Run a simulator like vHands (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849), maintain S/R lines going forward, and then try to tell me that price doesn’t stall, and frequently reverse, around these levels, vastly more often than could be reasonably suggested is mere coincidence.

For me, then, the relevant question is not “is this luck?”, but are these –

(1) Does this behavior occur consistently enough; and/or when prices bounce off, or break through, S/R do they, on average, move far enough to allow a method to be devised that exploits this to the extent that costs can be overcome? (and if so, am I ingenious enough – given that I may be as selective as I wish with my entries, and apply the necessary MM, patience, discipline etc – to find an element in all of this that would give me a statistically significant “edge”?)
Or are there too many lines to consider, too many reversals in “no man’s land”, too many fakeouts etc, that make all of this completely unworkable?

(2) Whatever the underlying market drivers might be, they have produced this behavior repeatedly for many years, even decades. To what extent will it continue in the future?

The same kind of questions could be asked, regarding any other chart patterns, or phenomena (or indicator-based methods that attempt to proxy abstracts like trends, pullbacks and momentum; or trends in economic fundamentals; or whatever; or any combo of the above).

My point is that (IMHO) none of these questions have anything to do with “luck”. “Luck” is merely a oversimplified way of answering “no” and then “yes” to the two questions in (1), and “how can we possibly know?” to (2).

David
  • #488
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:18pm Oct 1, 2008 3:18pm
fucuk
  • #489
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:28pm Oct 1, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting hanover
I know I said I’d left this thread. But if TD is allowed to parole himself temporarily out of his retirement, then…..

Let’s return briefly to first principles. To generalize for the sake of brevity, collective sentiment both creates, and is created by, imbalances within supply/demand, with the result that orders are placed, and price moves accordingly. This is the result of decisions made by individuals, not some random roll of the dice.

Like everybody else here, I’ve studied many, many price charts. One of the things that’s most apparent to me is how differently price behaves around prior areas of support/resistance. Run a simulator like vHands (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849), maintain S/R lines going forward, and then try to tell me that price doesn’t stall, and frequently reverse, around these levels, vastly more often than could be reasonably suggested is mere coincidence.

For me, then, the critical question is not “is this luck?”, but are these –

(1) Does this behavior occur consistently enough; and/or when prices bounce off, or break through, S/R do they, on average, move far enough to allow a method to be devised that exploits this to the extent that costs can be overcome? (and if so, am I ingenious enough – given that I may be as selective as I wish with my entries, and apply the necessary MM, patience, discipline etc – to find an element in all of this that would give me a statistically significant “edge”?)
Or are there too many lines to consider, too many reversals in “no man’s land”, too many fakeouts etc, that make all of this completely unworkable?

(2) Whatever the underlying market drivers might be, they have produced this behavior repeatedly for many years, even decades. To what extent will it continue in the future?

The same kind of questions could be asked, regarding any other chart patterns, or phenomena (or indicator-based methods that attempt to proxy abstracts like trends, pullbacks and momentum; or trends in economic fundamentals; or whatever; or any combo of the above).

My point is that (IMHO) none of these questions have anything to do with “luck”. “Luck” is merely a oversimplified way of answering “no” and then “yes” to the two questions in (1), and “how can we possibly know?” to (2).

David

so true

I also believe the attributing success or failure to 'luck' is a form of shifting blame or credit off of Self. It is more convenient to say my losses were based on 'luck' than admitting straight up that I (yes and you too) BLEW IT. It is also easier on the brain to say that my profits are based on luck when I cannot give a quantifiable and qualified reason why I made a profit.

'It just happened.'
  • #490
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:30pm Oct 1, 2008 3:30pm
The best preparation in the world will fail us sometimes. Even with perfect information, what with unexpected shocks and so on.
  • #491
  • Oct 1, 2008 3:59pm Oct 1, 2008 3:59pm
I think a consistently profitable trader is more likely to attribute his success to skill whereas a consistently unprofitable trader may look for excuses. It's not an opinion backed up by anything scientific, just a hunch.

Does it take skill to trade profitably?
  • #492
  • Oct 1, 2008 4:03pm Oct 1, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting Ted1983
I guesin you're not Swiss born though. Not neutral enough.
lol, correct, born and raised within the sound of Bow Bells
  • #493
  • Edited 11:05pm Oct 1, 2008 9:50pm | Edited 11:05pm
I think this discussion about luck matters, because how we each perceive luck will affect how we move forward toward or away from success.

No matter your opinion everyone, I think, agrees that we cannot control the outcome.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf luck_matters.pdf   69 KB | 459 downloads
  • #494
  • Edited 10:11pm Oct 1, 2008 9:57pm | Edited 10:11pm
Well apparently everyone's brain on this thread is wired differently, because what you call "it just happened" I call getting lucky.

If you dress up for a job interview, practice your interviewing skills, and do your best, you are lucky to get the job. There are hundreds of other people trying to get the same job..... it was just pure coincidence that you were prepared and a good match. Preparation does not replace luck, it just puts you in a position to get lucky.

Same thing with winning the lottery..... you pay to play, and the rest is luck.

If you can't explain what caused the price to move in your favor, it is luck.

If you can't explain why the horse you picked at the racetrack wins, it is luck. You might make your decision based on the size of the jockey, the horse's previous races, and the rest of the field. But that is were skill ends. The horse must run the race alone. The trade must as well.

Even the best poker players in the world (Helmuth, Brunson, Ferguson) tell the interviewer that they are lucky to beat the rest of the field.

Quoting KudzuFX
so true

I also believe the attributing success or failure to 'luck' is a form of shifting blame or credit off of Self. It is more convenient to say my losses were based on 'luck' than admitting straight up that I (yes and you too) BLEW IT. It is also easier on the brain to say that my profits are based on luck when I cannot give a quantifiable and qualified reason why I made a profit.

'It just happened.'
  • #495
  • Oct 1, 2008 10:37pm Oct 1, 2008 10:37pm
Quoting tdion
Well apparently everyone's brain on this thread is wired differently, because what you call "it just happened" I call getting lucky.

If you dress up for a job interview, practice your interviewing skills, and do your best, you are lucky to get the job. There are hundreds of other people trying to get the same job..... it was just pure coincidence that you were prepared and a good match. Preparation does not replace luck, it just puts you in a position to get lucky.

Same thing with winning the lottery..... you pay to play, and the rest is luck.

If you can't explain what caused the price to move in your favor, it is luck.

If you can't explain why the horse you picked at the racetrack wins, it is luck. You might make your decision based on the size of the jockey, the horse's previous races, and the rest of the field. But that is were skill ends. The horse must run the race alone. The trade must as well.

Even the best poker players in the world (Helmuth, Brunson, Ferguson) tell the interviewer that they are lucky to beat the rest of the field.

When I put 'it just happened' in quotes I was suggesting that this is what other people sometimes say. I do not subscribe to 'it just happened.' There has to have been a cause for price moving with me or against me - even if I do not know why somebody else does.
  • #496
  • Oct 2, 2008 10:56pm Oct 2, 2008 10:56pm
I would like to posit a scenario:
You dress up for a job interview, do your best, there are hundreds of others trying to get the job, but you're selected. There was some degree of "luck".

Now let's say you know beforehand exactly what skills they need, schedule, salary, position, and time for application (that they wouldn't need anyone before then). Now let's say you know who the interviewer is, what they do, various things about them. Now let's say you know their employer, who that person(s) is(are), various things about them. Now let's say you know the time they'll enter work, what time they'll leave, what time is best for them, of which time is available for the interview. What very second they would be most likely to have a decision for a candidate. You will need to be very informed.

Of course, the position will appear abruptly, unadvertised at first (since it only just occurred/they have no desire to advertise), but the populace will catch on. You have been waiting outside counting the seconds until the availability officially begins.

I'm probably not specific enough for this. There is the addition in trading that there is no "one", and in fact as long as you're in at the price you want when you want, more people piling in will help.

Knowing each factor and adapting to each presents you with what? I think the job interview is slightly flawed because of the idea of "one" position; What if there are a series of positions, like the market, and whomever is there at the "right place, right time" seeks to benefit the most?

I hope this will do. A public thank you tdion for your work on the forum. Enjoy your time, I hope you make a lot of pips.
  • #497
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:44pm Oct 2, 2008 11:44pm
I'd like to say that "I get it" to those that say luck doesn't exist.

There was a woman I used to work with that said "I'm the unluckiest person in the world." all the time. I got sick of it.

It was as if, the world owed her a favor. She was divorced. Barely making ends meet. Etc etc.

Now, life is hard on everybody in one way or another. So when we find people complaining about life, and blaiming bad luck for things instead of proactively fixing their problems, that is a classic case of "fool's luck" if you will.


My whole point was that some things in life can not be controlled by being proactive.
  • #498
  • Oct 3, 2008 12:07am Oct 3, 2008 12:07am
Quote
My whole point was that some things in life can not be controlled by being proactive.

There are some things you can't inherently change... like if an asteroid smacked into Earth, not much we can do about that. But in cases like that the response is everything. A good response can greatly mitigate the downside.
  • #499
  • Oct 3, 2008 1:16am Oct 3, 2008 1:16am
I think we have a buch of GA member's here trying to justify their favorite pastime.

"Hi, my name is Stevo and I'm a forex gambler."

Would make for a great brokerage ad.
  • #500
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:17am Oct 3, 2008 4:17am
Quoting fxterrapin
I think we have a buch of GA member's here
Quite probably, seeing as how the majority of forex traders don't seem to know what trading is
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