Admit it - your profits are based on luck

Quoting Ted1983

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Well really any direct comparison should be made in pips. Because I could open an account, leverage it to the hilt and go, "Ooooh look at me I doubled my account in a day! whoohooo its the Holy grail."

That said, congratulations on your recent results you're obviusly twice the trader I am.

However that does not mean you get carte blanche on talking crap about the nature of chance and randomness. If what you believe about the markets was true then they could not exist! Just apply your obviously massive intellect to it and you'll realize why.

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Quoting aajduk

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I don't call it luck, I call an educated, calculated risk, so does my father now.

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Quoting lostinspace

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This is getting repetitive and slightly tedious, not to mention pointless.

Trading performance can't be measured in pips, alone they mean nothing. For example you made 300, I made 600, does that make me twice the trader as you suggested? No, of course not.

As regards luck, chance, and randomness, KudzuFX explained it to you far better than I could in this post .

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Quoting euclid

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I would give up. These guys are speaking another language.

Everybody knows that:
good luck = favourable outcome of a random event
bad luck = unfavourable outcome of a random event

You win in forex by increasing your exposure to the former while limiting your exposure to the latter.

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Quoting opie999

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In consideration of this excellent post, the thread should be renamed to "Admit it - your profits are based on increasing your exposure to the favourable outcome of random events and limiting your exposure to the unfavourable outcome of random events"

All those is favor say aye, those opposed can bugger off.

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Quoting Ted1983

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Read and UNDERSTAND my posts please before you respond. You clearly didnt grasp the point being made here. And yes performace should be measured in pips as two different traders will have varying risk tolerance.

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Quoting lostinspace

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In one lucid paragraph what I've been trying to convey in a dozen slightly muddled posts!

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Quoting lostinspace

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The risk tolerance of an individual trader makes no difference when measuring performance, performance is the measure of return against risk not the number of pips a trader makes or his own particular tolerance for risk.

Regards your other questions, I've already advised you to read and UNDERSTAND the reply KudzuFX gave you, he explained it far better than I could.

If you really have a need to ask the same questions over and over again perhaps you could save time and just refer to this post and KudzuFX's reply?

Are we done now, I sure hope so, for everyone's sake and sanity!

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Quoting aajduk

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Tut tut,

First time i have been on this part of FF, very interesting. I think the original quote was "admit it - your profits are based on luck". Its funny because when I started trading my father said I was gambling. I said to him, trading is a bit like crossing the road. You can rush up to the road and bolt accross without a single glance to either side. That is a 50/50 chance you will get hit. Or you can learn some basic rules, walk up to the road, look both ways and then methodically and purposefully cross the road. You have just put the odds in your favour. You can still get hit by not seeing something or not following the rules precisely, but you have a better than 50/50 of getting across safely. Trading is the same, you can go blindly long or short with a 50/50 chance. Or you can learn some basic rules and a bit of technique, apply them methodically and purposefully and put the odds in your favour. You can still lose by not seeing everything on the chart or by not following precisely your own rules. But if you abide by the rules you increase your chances of success.
I don't call it luck, I call an educated, calculated risk, so does my father now.

Regards,

Anthony

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Quoting KudzuFX

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Thanks!
My words seems to have assembled themselves into an orderly and cohesive string. What luck.

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Quoting Ted1983

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I have attempted at various junctures to outline my position

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Quoting Ted1983

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I for one dont believe in luck.

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Quoting opie999

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Ok, ok. Then let's rename it,

"Admit it - your profits are based on increasing your exposure to the favourable outcome of random events and limiting your exposure to the unfavourable outcome of random events by methodically and purposefully taking educated, calculated risks; sound money management practices; and correct planetary alignment"

Too wordy maybe?

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Quoting Ted1983

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Whats the big deal? (yes that is a question)

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Quoting opie999

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Ok, ok. Then let's rename it,

"Admit it - your profits are based on increasing your exposure to the favourable outcome of random events and limiting your exposure to the unfavourable outcome of random events by methodically and purposefully taking educated, calculated risks; sound money management practices; and correct planetary alignment"

Too wordy maybe?

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Quoting lostinspace

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Believe me if you fail at trading you have an excellent career as one of those interrogators who extract confessions from people, you'll make water torture redundant! The words dog and bone spring to mind

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Quoting Ted1983

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Let me say this then. I don't plan to fail at trading. However there is an unquantifiable chance that I might. Judicious use of analysis and appropriate risk management should skew the probability of success in my favour, but by a neccesarily unknown amount.

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