Martingale Baggio Method

The result could be 0. Pips for Broker.

How is this system doing so far? and especially during very volatile market conditions like we are having this month (October)?

Xaron, let us know and please post your statement for October... I am testing this system and nearly had a margin call two weeks ago on USD/JPY.

Thanks

Thanks for all the great work! Xaron and Rama, you are my new idols (it used to be Nelson Mandela).

Btw, I'd like to suggest a simple solution to the dreaded MC. The losses which destroy our accounts really occur from the 9th trade. It is truly only the 9th trade which causes the account to blow up in our faces. Have you guys considered limiting maxtrades to 8?

If the max trades is 8, the last trade would be 1.28, and the cumulative amount on the table would be simply: 0.01 + 0.02 + 0.04 + 0.08 + 0.16 + 0.32 + 0.64 + 1.28 = 2.55 lots. The weighted average pip loss would be about USD25-26 per pip (Note: I am talking about MetaTrader Pips. The Metatrader Pip is 10 times the size of an Oanda Pip. The definition of "Pip" varies with each broker. They never bothered to standardize it.)

Assume pipstep = 40,

When the MC is triggered by a 40 pip stop loss on the final trade, the aggregate loss would amount to (0.5*40 + 0.25*80 + 0.125*120 + 0.0625*160 + negligib) * (2.56*USD2.5) = USD 416. The MC would be painful, but considering the peace of mind it gives, I think it's pretty worth it! Besides, this $5000 account of mine has grown more than $1000 a day on Xaron's and Rama's fantastic settings, with gratefully few MCs to offset the huge earnings (less than 3 per week). And if it seems like I'm getting tonnes of MC's please remember than this MC is comparable to Herpes or Cold Sores, rather than the 9th progression MC, which you could liken to AIDS. While Herpes and Cold sores are painful and more common than AIDS, you will survive them well!

On a standard day in these volatile times, I have been trading mildly modified versions of Rama's and Xaron's settings on EURJPY, USDJPY, GBPJPY and Cable 20/5 (I off the system during the overlap between London Markets and US Markets due to the extremely High volatility then.) The $5000 portfolio has grown on average 20% a day for 3 weeks. Will post results and settings soon. On my way to school now.

Btw, account has never blown up ever since adjusting maxtrades = 8.

What do you guys think of Maxtrades = 8? (OH! And don't forget to disable MM!)

Cheers!

Hi angchong,

wellcome to ForexFactory!

I tried Maxtrades = 8 in backtests but doesn't find a profitable setup, that's why I doesnt use it


GuHu

Martingale never works on the long term with reasonable risk and money management. I´d rather recommend to use 10 or 15 trades. Due to the high leverage you make the gains, that you need, so your margin grows above the amount originally risked, so that you will have left more after the trades that causes the margin call.

Only that way martingale works, because there will always be a move that crashes your account, so better get it up quickly to be safe once it happens. That´s the black swan of martingale. Knowing that you can make the swan grey, but martingale will never be a system that I would recommend trading.

good night

I agree that it's terribly dangerous. And yeap, that's a great observation! The better the first few trades, the stronger the base.

But there are 2 ways of achieving the same risk levels. Assuming we take GBPUSD. Our fear as Martingale users is the event of huge uni-directional moves with poor retracing. For example, If we wish to guard against unidirectional moves of 600 pips, we could use a 9 stage martingale with a 60 point Pipstep (the 600th point on the final progression would wipe you out). Or we could use an 8 stage martingale with a 67 point pipstep. It gives us the same 600 pip risk barrier.

Likewise, I could increase my overall survivability by keeping a 9 step martingale, but with a wider Pipstep setting. Taking the earlier example, increasing my pipstep from 60 to 70 on a 9 stage martingale would allow me to survive unidirectional jumps of 700 pips! The problem with this is clearly one of profitability because:

1) Bet sizes would shrink
2) Bet frequencies would drop
3) Since Take Profit must clearly be higher than pipstep, A higher Pipstep means a higher take profit, resulting in less frequent reversions. (might even end up riskier if reversions of a pair have known to be pathetically small!)

Of course, the narrow pipstep 9 step martingale is immensely profitable. I make over $1000 a day on a risky 9 step martingale. See the income statement attached below. But the number of times I enter the 9th stage of the Martingale is quite high! (Makes my blood run cold!)

Anyway, here are my results for 18 hours of trading on 4 pairs. Essentially, my strategy is to run a hivol version in the daily 4 hours when London and US Markets overlap. That's when we see huge price movements which shock the hell out of us and liquidate our accounts. For the rest of the day, I run Xaron's and Rama's settings. The Hivol version simply doubles the pipstep and takeprofit levels on Xaron's and Rama's settings.

(And no offense to anyone, But I think the EURJPY is a death trade. It's got small reversions and huge unidirectional moves. Any Martingale User's worst nightmare. I've dropped it.)

And yeap, Dabuschi, I agree that Martingale cannot work passively in the long run. However, by monitoring prevailing volatilities and widening my pipsteps as appropriate, I believe the Martingale is a survivable trade. As you said, 10-15 progressions would be nice, but if I can't achieve such risk protection with sufficient capital, I can surely synthesize it with wider but less profitable pipsteps.

Here are my results for 19 hours of trading. 30% up already! I'm extremely new to Metatrader. Used to lose lots by trading Oanda on gut. This system works like a dream Will post more updates soon!

Sorry, failed to attach. Here it is!

That´s an approach I thought about and I absolutely agree. Widen your pipsteps and you have a higher probability to survive on the long for the costs of lower return. But that´s the way it is.

I´m a trendfollower and doing that I made 100% this week so far trading 5 pairs with 1.5% risk per trade. I use a trailing stop, so it could get more. Worst case I get stopped out and make only +50% . If I would have to choose, I would always use the trendfollowing system. It´s just better for my heart

Hi Angconch,

nice idea. Since Alpari added a decimal digit to the price recently, you have to multiply the parameters pipstep and takeprofit with 10 in order to get the original behaviour.

Congratulation to your first day, but -especially with a martingale system- it does not have enough statistical weight to judge about the system.

Could you please post your actual settings and the times you use them?

Thanks, GuHu

Hi again The account lost $3000+ when the GBP and EUR rebounded after the initial tumbles today! Here are the results. I remember the Sage Xaron telling us to stop the Martingale on interest rate announcement days. Guess I should have listened!

Well, still left with $4600 of $5000, so I'd like to ask for help.

Today, the 9th progression (2.56) was breached on GBP/USD and USD/CHF. On the GBP/USD, the position liquidated for a $3000 loss almost 400 Alpari Pips (or 40 standard Pips) beyond the last progression level! And my Pipstep was set at 70 Alpari pips (or 7 standard Pips)!

This is a really dangerous feature of the current Martingale v3.33. Is there any way to programme an ultimate stoploss which would kick in once we lose more than, say, 70 Alpari pips (7 standard pips) in the final progression? That would cap the aggregate loss on each "death trade" to roughly $700 and make this strategy so much safer. If not, the collapsed position would potentially wipe out the account in a single margin call.

Can this reign-in be programmed into the Martingale? Seems like Money Management and trailing stops might achieve the outcome, but do these features work with Martingale? It's disabled in Xaron's templates, but if it helps to avoid such catastrophies, they just might be good.

Can someone help? My programming isn't too good yet!

Oh, and I'll post my altered presets pretty soon. I can't post the lousy ones I have now. They've failed the test of volatility.

Cheers,
angchong

.. here is a version with a stop loss fixed to Maxtrades*Pipsteps relative to Bid/Ask.

Thus, after the last level, the system close all positions after Pipsteps again in the wrong direction.

The system doesn't trade on friday and around the christmas days.

Use it on your own risk.

Just my 2 cents: due to the rareness of margin calls you will need a long time for backtests (more than 4 years) to get a significant message.

Hi Guhu, I think I need the ex4 file for this EA to work right? Could you upload that too? Thanks!

just hit the yellow sign for metaeditor on the left side of the "expert advisors" button, open the file and hit "compile". This will make the ex4 - file.

Hmm, there's a problem compiling. It can't generate the ex4 file somehow. There's an error. Do you think you could upload yours? Sorry for the trouble! Very much appreciated!

hello,

The files you need are on the attachments as MA Martingale v3.2.

Then you have all the include files to copy to your ...experts/include folder.

By the way, what are the best settings for this EA?

Best Regrds,
booster

what are the other files that you need to download in order to get the ea to work. someone said there are more files needed but which ones??

thanks

hello,

just check the ones the compiler say its missing.

'ChartWindow.mqh' - cannot open the program file C:\Program Files\MetaTrader - Alpari UK\experts\MA Martingale v3.33g2.mq4 (21, 1)

I got this message. Still can't generate the EX file on Guhu's version. Anyone able to help? Can't quite understand why.

.. you have to read the thread and to install the include files..

For your convenience here is the ex4 file.

Dear guys, here are my settings on two pairs.

Changes to Xaron's version:

1) Secureprofits set to -0.16. So that the max loss per bad trade is capped at $800. This should leave some small space after the ninth progression.
2) pipstep beefed up to survive hivol periods (note that volatility is much higher than historical! Backtesting is rather futile for now i suspect.)
3) Emergencyclose set to 8. When you hit progression 8, your EA stops trying to hit your Take Profit Level. Instead, it looks only to break even before closing off. This reduces overall profitability from huge windfalls, but sustainability receives a huge boost. You only need a smaller rebound to pull yourself out of a potential death trade
4) mm set to on, risk readjusted such as to keep initial trades at 0.01.

That's it for now folks! Use at own risk! In times like these, even a passive EA trader must readjust his pipstep to meet market requirements.

Cheers,
angchong