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  • #961
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:42am Feb 22, 2007 1:42am
Oh deep joy.

EU & UCHF stopped out for minus 38 & minus 47 pips. GU looking vulnerable too. Only UJ currently up over 160 pips but getting far too many losers and my patience is wearing very thin.

Must stay positive but I must admit it's getting increasingly difficult.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #962
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:47am Feb 22, 2007 1:47am
Just noticed on closed trades I'm down 1005 pips this month! Wow, I can't see a month in the last two years that would have been worse than this.

Well, should have some on my UJ trade to help me out.
  • #963
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:55am Feb 22, 2007 1:55am
OK, my GU long has now been stopped out for minus 39 pips lol. Let's see if it bounces right off my s/l at ends up in the 9600's or whether my s/l has saved me further losses.

For anyone reading this must be great fun lol - I see the views are going up - must be like looking at the remains of a traffic accident. Anyhow, at this point I'm pretty beat up but at least I have a days work to look forward too hehe

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #964
  • Feb 22, 2007 2:36am Feb 22, 2007 2:36am
I'm sorry for your frustration. What I don't understand is why weren't you long usdchf?
  • #965
  • Feb 22, 2007 2:54am Feb 22, 2007 2:54am
I'm in the same boat bro.. I really don't know what to think of these losses after each other
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #966
  • Feb 22, 2007 3:24am Feb 22, 2007 3:24am
Quoting steviet
OK, my GU long has now been stopped out for minus 39 pips lol. Let's see if it bounces right off my s/l at ends up in the 9600's or whether my s/l has saved me further losses.
Hey Steve.
No worries, the market's treating everyone badly. Don't let it get to you. I know exactly how you feel abnout the stop hit -> bounce or at least show me it was "worth" losing you......forget about that stuff, it's too emotional thinking. It happens. Like you say yourself, there's good times and bad times. We get addicted to the euphoria of the wins and get depressions and angry at the market when we get losing streaks. Either results in either dangerous overconfidence or trying to get back at the market. Neither helps profit

If you really do find yourself in these ranging swamps on thing to ponder is being open-minded to at least one single "exotic" thing.
That can be either Gold, the Dow Jones or simply literally an exotic like Kiwi or AUDUSD or maybe GBPCHF or EURCHF.
Compare the charts, see if there's something that's been moving ok (Indices have rallied for 6 months now, it's nauseating) and consider taking that as a fifth pair instead of either USDCHF or EURUSD. Those just hedge each other anyway and have you end up doing almost the same as if you were to take twice as much risk on one instead of the same on both. Although I'd always favor the USDCHF side for pro dollar because of the unstoppable EURCHF.

Bottom line: Don't get too frustrated, everyone is in the same boat
Things will change.


Take care,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #967
  • Feb 22, 2007 6:26am Feb 22, 2007 6:26am
Thanks,

Your comments are really appreciated

I've been looking at maybe changing one of the pairs (possibly USDCAD) to either AUDCAD or EURCAD as on backtesting they both perfom better. That's no guarantee of course that this will be the case now or that I actually stick rigidly to my plan lol.

I noticed that in the last few weeks I've been thinking far too much before entering a trade. I've always said too much thinking loses pips and it does seem to be the case more often than not.

A classic example was last night going short on USDCHF. On backtesting I would have gone long as we had a higher high & higher low but no, I was trying to be too clever, thinking the pair may reverse instead of waiting for confirmation. As a result I also went long on EU as they are inversely correlated and lost out on both trades.

Looking back over this month results would still have been disappointing but I could have cut my losses by at least 300 pips if only I just traded the plan, no thinking it may do this, that or the other.

Simple fact is no-one really knows, all we can do is have a plan with good MM and the probability that a pair will go a certain way. I need to just stick to my rules and leave the thinking to others lol.

Thanks again

Kind Regards
Steve
Quoting SeekingLight
Hey Steve.
No worries, the market's treating everyone badly. Don't let it get to you. I know exactly how you feel abnout the stop hit -> bounce or at least show me it was "worth" losing you......forget about that stuff, it's too emotional thinking. It happens. Like you say yourself, there's good times and bad times. We get addicted to the euphoria of the wins and get depressions and angry at the market when we get losing streaks. Either results in either dangerous overconfidence or trying to get back at the market. Neither helps profit

If you really do find yourself in these ranging swamps on thing to ponder is being open-minded to at least one single "exotic" thing.
That can be either Gold, the Dow Jones or simply literally an exotic like Kiwi or AUDUSD or maybe GBPCHF or EURCHF.
Compare the charts, see if there's something that's been moving ok (Indices have rallied for 6 months now, it's nauseating) and consider taking that as a fifth pair instead of either USDCHF or EURUSD. Those just hedge each other anyway and have you end up doing almost the same as if you were to take twice as much risk on one instead of the same on both. Although I'd always favor the USDCHF side for pro dollar because of the unstoppable EURCHF.

Bottom line: Don't get too frustrated, everyone is in the same boat
Things will change.


Take care,

SeekingLight
  • #968
  • Feb 22, 2007 8:16am Feb 22, 2007 8:16am
You are in it for the long haul. My demo account is getting pummeled right now. No big deal. It's just one month out of 12.

All the best,
Jackie
  • #969
  • Feb 22, 2007 8:19am Feb 22, 2007 8:19am
Looks like February 07 is similar to feb 06... consolidation before the trend starts kicking in. I am sure u would be very positive next month!
  • #970
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:34am Feb 22, 2007 11:34am
i think the views also have a lot to do with the good atmosphere you've created here. keep it up!!!

Quoting steviet
OK, my GU long has now been stopped out for minus 39 pips lol. Let's see if it bounces right off my s/l at ends up in the 9600's or whether my s/l has saved me further losses.

For anyone reading this must be great fun lol - I see the views are going up - must be like looking at the remains of a traffic accident. Anyhow, at this point I'm pretty beat up but at least I have a days work to look forward too hehe

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #971
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:38am Feb 22, 2007 11:38am
too much thinking as a technical trader can be a real killer. for me if it isn't obvious within a few minutes or so looking at a pair then i move on.

that's why i also ditch the other baggage i mentioned before. top traders generally follow a tried and tested plan and leave the clever stuff to others (who generally "think" their way to the poorhouse!)

Quoting steviet
Thanks,

Your comments are really appreciated

I've been looking at maybe changing one of the pairs (possibly USDCAD) to either AUDCAD or EURCAD as on backtesting they both perfom better. That's no guarantee of course that this will be the case now or that I actually stick rigidly to my plan lol.

I noticed that in the last few weeks I've been thinking far too much before entering a trade. I've always said too much thinking loses pips and it does seem to be the case more often than not.

A classic example was last night going short on USDCHF. On backtesting I would have gone long as we had a higher high & higher low but no, I was trying to be too clever, thinking the pair may reverse instead of waiting for confirmation. As a result I also went long on EU as they are inversely correlated and lost out on both trades.

Looking back over this month results would still have been disappointing but I could have cut my losses by at least 300 pips if only I just traded the plan, no thinking it may do this, that or the other.

Simple fact is no-one really knows, all we can do is have a plan with good MM and the probability that a pair will go a certain way. I need to just stick to my rules and leave the thinking to others lol.

Thanks again

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #972
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:42am Feb 22, 2007 11:42am
if you're struggling with the chop then how about adding another filter to your system to sit out small ranges and then when price breaks get back in? your technical skills (so far) have bagged a couple of grand (pips) on trends, so why not hone them to sit out the doldrums that are inevitable in trading?

you can see how i do it on some of my charts, perhaps you could do something similar? price action on its own is pretty tough going...thats why i use trend-lines which double up as horizontal support and resistance when trends flatten out into range patterns...
  • #973
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:51am Feb 22, 2007 11:51am
Hehe,

Just got up this morning to find my trades getting stopped out one by one lol so I wasn't a happy chappy. Anyhow, work is now over & the world seems a better place

UJ is currently up 180 pips - can lock in 116 tonight so all is not lost by any means.

GU has of course rocketed up - that was a little too predictable but must just concentrate on the next trades to put on later.

I hope I can make a better job of trades as I go - even though I know what backtesting results have been for some reason I have the occasional blip where I think I know better. I guess all traders go through this and even the successful ones probably have the odd 'doh' moment

Thanks for your support as always - I know you'll carry/push/drag me to the finish line in October and we'll see how this newbie has done haha.

Kind Regards
Steve



Quoting Isotonic
too much thinking as a technical trader can be a real killer. for me if it isn't obvious within a few minutes or so looking at a pair then i move on.

that's why i also ditch the other baggage i mentioned before. top traders generally follow a tried and tested plan and leave the clever stuff to others (who generally "think" their way to the poorhouse!)
  • #974
  • Feb 22, 2007 11:59am Feb 22, 2007 11:59am
Yes,

There's so much to think about - I guess if I can make a better fist of the ranges then I really will have found something! My other thought was not to necessarily restrict myself to 5 pairs.

For example, once I'm in a trade at break even or in profit (like I am with UJ now for example), I could then open a new trade the next day on the most promising looking pair. The idea would be that if I have all 5 trades in this situation (I wish), I could open up to 5 more trades on other pairs. I could even have a specific rule that I would only open one of these new trades if we have a doji followed by a reversal bar on the daily - just an example. GJ a couple of days ago would have been a good example of this if I had a 'free' spot available. I wouldn't necessarily have to open an extra trade, only if I saw this particular formation which tends to have a high success rate.

In other words I would only ever have a maximum of 5 pairs open that I've not already secured a profit on.

It may be even worth looking at the charts tonight to look at opening another trade to replace the UJ that already has 116 pips locked in. What do you think? I don't want to deviate too much from my original plan but looking for ways to enhance it.

Look forward to your comments.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Isotonic
if you're struggling with the chop then how about adding another filter to your system to sit out small ranges and then when price breaks get back in? your technical skills (so far) have bagged a couple of grand (pips) on trends, so why not hone them to sit out the doldrums that are inevitable in trading?

you can see how i do it on some of my charts, perhaps you could do something similar? price action on its own is pretty tough going...thats why i use trend-lines which double up as horizontal support and resistance when trends flatten out into range patterns...
  • #975
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:04pm Feb 22, 2007 12:04pm
I know these are very creative trendlines, but the point is the rising one capping the higher highs and the big triangle/wedge...this is what we want to see and take note of
Maybe using the last "big" low for stop instead in this sort of ranging would have helped the trades? I know, it goes against the system...nevermind, don't let me screw it up ;D

Just wanted to give some perspective
We're about to escape the dreaded mudhole I hope =)
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #976
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:18pm Feb 22, 2007 12:18pm
Haha,

That's what I'm really concerned about - screwing it up

Not in the sense of failing but more in the sense of not staying true to what has proved to be successful in the past. I'm convinced it will work long term because markets do trend at some point.

About the stop losses - point taken - it's a difficult call between staying in a trade and getting stopped out for a greater loss. See, my mind is working overtime again & that's not a good thing lol.

I've tried to come up with all sorts of formula with the stop losses but it always seems to come back to my original idea of the 10 pip s/l below the last low or above the last high. Getting stopped out is always a bummer and getting stopped out to the pip a real bummer lol. It probably happens a lot less than I think though - just sticks in the mind longer!

Thanks for your input my friend.

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting SeekingLight
I know these are very creative trendlines, but the point is the rising one capping the higher highs and the big triangle/wedge...this is what we want to see and take note of
Maybe using the last "big" low for stop instead in this sort of ranging would have helped the trades? I know, it goes against the system...nevermind, don't let me screw it up ;D

Just wanted to give some perspective
We're about to escape the dreaded mudhole I hope =)
  • #977
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:24pm Feb 22, 2007 12:24pm
Quoting steviet
It may be even worth looking at the charts tonight to look at opening another trade to replace the UJ that already has 116 pips locked in. What do you think? I don't want to deviate too much from my original plan but looking for ways to enhance it.

Look forward to your comments.

Kind Regards
Steve
Hi Steve,
I know you spent some time backtesting your system manually, therefore maybe you should first backtest the "new" version and only go for it if the backtest shows better results than the "original" strategy?

Quoting steviet
I noticed that in the last few weeks I've been thinking far too much before entering a trade. I've always said too much thinking loses pips and it does seem to be the case more often than not.

A classic example was last night going short on USDCHF. On backtesting I would have gone long as we had a higher high & higher low but no, I was trying to be too clever, thinking the pair may reverse instead of waiting for confirmation. As a result I also went long on EU as they are inversely correlated and lost out on both trades.

Looking back over this month results would still have been disappointing but I could have cut my losses by at least 300 pips if only I just traded the plan, no thinking it may do this, that or the other.
I think you said that in your backtesting you tested each pair separately, therefore you shouldn't look at correlation but only at each pair individually (remember you did that in January when you went long GU & short EU). I guess it is easier to say than do...

The only thing that I am curious about is regarding your drawdown: have you gone (far) beyond the max drawdown that your backtesting indicated? If your current drawdown is within the range that your backtest indicated then you should just be........patient! (and you can still look at ways to improve the system as long as you do some backtest).

Anyway, I know you must be frustrated but keep going!!

Regards
Guiom
  • #978
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:37pm Feb 22, 2007 12:37pm
Thanks

Some great comments here.

As far as a 'new version' is concerned it wouldn't be new as such because the system actually works OK on every pair I've looked at - some better than others obviously.

The thought about adding another pair would only be appropriate if it was presenting this formation when I had a 'free spot'. Tonight for example, none of the other pairs my broker supports has this formation occurring so I wouldn't enter a new trade.

However, after a strong bear run, a doji or hammer followed by a bullish engulfing bar would give you a successful trade in around 70-80% of instances in any pair. This to me would seem a good risk - maybe not give you megapips but should help in my win percentage.

Drawdown - This month should be about as bad as it gets - currently down just over 1000 pips (16% ouch) but this will be helped out by my UJ that guarantees at least 116 pips.

It may get worse before it gets better but it WILL GET BETTER

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting guiomdetalle
Hi Steve,
I know you spent some time backtesting your system manually, therefore maybe you should first backtest the "new" version and only go for it if the backtest shows better results than the "original" strategy?



I think you said that in your backtesting you tested each pair separately, therefore you shouldn't look at correlation but only at each pair individually (remember you did that in January when you went long GU & short EU). I guess it is easier to say than do...

The only thing that I am curious about is regarding your drawdown: have you gone (far) beyond the max drawdown that your backtesting indicated? If your current drawdown is within the range that your backtest indicated then you should just be........patient! (and you can still look at ways to improve the system as long as you do some backtest).

Anyway, I know you must be frustrated but keep going!!

Regards
Guiom
  • #979
  • Feb 22, 2007 12:56pm Feb 22, 2007 12:56pm
Hello Steve,

I ve been following your thread since I ve discovered the FF and its a very interesting read.....thanks for posting your daily trades, your thinking..your happiness at your winning and your annoyance at the losses..!!!!

I know what it feels like to have a negative month...actually I know what it feels like over and over so hang in there....

What I like about your system is its simplicity....I m a great believer that too much analysis= complete paralysis!!! I know this because I suffered from it....

I don't think you should change anything to your system you are trading in your live account.....Coz that is when the emotion sets in after a string of losses.......and we try to change things around to make it better only to possibly make things worse.....I know coz I ve done it!!!!....

Its true no one wants to take losses.....and although we love to talk about keeping emotions out etc...I think even the most professional of traders cannot do it completely.....and its understandable...if you don't want to protect your account who would...!!

The point I m trying to make before this goes into a novel length......you have planned your trade (namely your system) now its a case of trade your plan.....

You know it works for you in the past...coz U have the pip statement to prove it......at the moment it may be the market is not suited to your plan...this may be a couple of days, or a couple of weeks...just see it thru....absolutely no harm in not being in the market for a couple of days.....and if you feel you need to re-assess your system to make changes then tweak it to adapt to current market.... be out of the market when u do that.....no harm in that....(just make sure you keep posting though even a single line like..."I did nothing today !!!!)

There are things you can think about such as...trading all pairs as a team and setting dollar based profit targets, if that occurs you close all the trades and enter the next day etc...

The point being.....no changes to the system on the live account what so ever without testing it...not only back but also forward....(coz trading the left of the chart is much easier than the right!!)

Hang in there and see it thru....and I m sure your fan base will be reading with u all the way thru!!
  • #980
  • Feb 22, 2007 1:05pm Feb 22, 2007 1:05pm
Surely it's a mistake to dwell on losing 1000 points, or whatever, this month? Be positive and concentrate on the fact that you're still way ahead overall, which statistically puts you in a better position than about 90% of the rest of us (me included)!
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