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100 years of Bear Markets...end of Tunnel is...

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 30, 2008 8:25am Sep 30, 2008 8:25am
First, I must say that lately I donīt think "too highly" of Economic and/or Financial Advisors/Counselors/Analyst that work at top notch Investment banks that tend to go belly up, but this guys comments caught my interest

Analyst at Morgan Stanley

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008...draaisma-land/

I found points 3 and 7 interesting.

What do you think? Is the Bear market a SUPER BEAR that will last 7 more years? Or are things in the modern 21st century "more accelerated" and therefore everything happens in quicker terms (20 years of Bear market in the 20th century = 7 years in 21st century? Due to technology, wider spread of information and globalization)
  • #2
  • Sep 30, 2008 7:38pm Sep 30, 2008 7:38pm
Quoting petercross
First, I must say that lately I donīt think "too highly" of Economic and/or Financial Advisors/Counselors/Analyst that work at top notch Investment banks that tend to go belly up, but this guys comments caught my interest

Analyst at Morgan Stanley

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008...draaisma-land/

I found points 3 and 7 interesting.

What do you think? Is the Bear market a SUPER BEAR that will last 7 more years? Or are things in the modern 21st century "more accelerated" and therefore everything happens in quicker terms (20 years of Bear market in the 20th century = 7 years in 21st century? Due to technology, wider spread of information and globalization)
Just ask yourself this question;
Is Teun Draaisma in the Forbes list of Billionaires?
No ? Are you sure ? Yep Im sure he didnt make it..
Thank god for that.. I thought I had missed something worth reading.
  • #3
  • Oct 1, 2008 5:55am Oct 1, 2008 5:55am
Kondratieff theory does indicate that this bear will last longer. There are also some demographics factors (baby boomers retiring, lots of them) that point to a prolonged depression for equities; only a major advance in productivity or a war could change things rapidly.

howvere Kondratieff cycles work across decades, so you might see short term gains too..
  • #4
  • Edited 10:26am Oct 1, 2008 9:13am | Edited 10:26am
Quoting pippero
Kondratieff theory does indicate that this bear will last longer. There are also some demographics factors (baby boomers retiring, lots of them) that point to a prolonged depression for equities; only a major advance in productivity or a war could change things rapidly.

howvere Kondratieff cycles work across decades, so you might see short term gains too..
The early baby boomers are retiring in droves when they can, but a considerable amount of them are stuck in the middle-management jobs, with minimal options for retirement.

Frankly, if this problem is affecting them, we're in for some deep sh!t
  • #5
  • Oct 1, 2008 8:22pm Oct 1, 2008 8:22pm
Don't over-extrapolate the trend...
  • #6
  • Oct 2, 2008 2:19am Oct 2, 2008 2:19am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
The early baby boomers are retiring in droves when they can, but a considerable amount of them are stuck in the middle-management jobs, with minimal options for retirement.

Frankly, if this problem is affecting them, we're in for some deep sh!t
Hang-on

He doesnt mention about the emerging wealth in China
  • #7
  • Oct 2, 2008 11:43am Oct 2, 2008 11:43am
Quoting petercross
First, I must say that lately I donīt think "too highly" of Economic and/or Financial Advisors/Counselors/Analyst that work at top notch Investment banks that tend to go belly up, but this guys comments caught my interest

Analyst at Morgan Stanley

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008...draaisma-land/

I found points 3 and 7 interesting.

What do you think? Is the Bear market a SUPER BEAR that will last 7 more years? Or are things in the modern 21st century "more accelerated" and therefore everything happens in quicker terms (20 years of Bear market in the 20th century = 7 years in 21st century? Due to technology, wider spread of information and globalization)
Point 3 is a bit problematic. Sentiment bearish sentiment itself does very little to guage market bottoms, however, how that sentiments is translated into actual investment descisions is crutial! In other words, sentiment does help as an indicator, but bearishness has to reach such extremes, that this sentiment actually has an effect on investment decisions.

Don't forget, it's always at the end of a trend that most investors have the greatest conviction that it will never end.

The Rydex cash flow ratio is a proprietary indicator which measures flows into bearish vs bullish funds. It perfectly indicates when the bulls "capitulate" en masse into bearish funds and this usually indicates a major bottom (as it did in 2003).

Look at the bearish break of the indicator below. Not even price action is this accurate.

http://i38.tinypic.com/122dx7a.gif

Also, bear markets can be ranging markets, as was the case in 1962-1982. How would argue that picking up some stock would have been a foolish from 2003 to 2007. 4 years of bullishness is too much to ignore.
  • #8
  • Last Post: Oct 2, 2008 11:45am Oct 2, 2008 11:45am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
The early baby boomers are retiring in droves when they can, but a considerable amount of them are stuck in the middle-management jobs, with minimal options for retirement.

Frankly, if this problem is affecting them, we're in for some deep sh!t

Why so? They'll just go back to their campfires and orgies, signing old Beatles tunes... where is the problem?
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