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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #361
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:35pm Sep 29, 2008 1:35pm
Further to my last post. I'd like some existential nihilism. Where can I buy some?



(note: Just because you can't buy it doesn't mean it doesn't exist)
  • #362
  • Sep 29, 2008 1:51pm Sep 29, 2008 1:51pm
Quoting KudzuFX
I'd like to buy some luck - where can I get some?



(note: luck cannot be quanitfied because luck does not exist)
He didn't say it could be quantified. He said it was demonstrable.

Besides, are all things that can't be quantified necessarily non-existent? Do emotions exist? Does beauty exist? Do ideas exist? Of course they do. The mere fact they are intangible doesn't automatically render them non-existent.
  • #363
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:21pm Sep 29, 2008 2:21pm
I do enjoy your posts so much tdion man, but reading all answers is so boring, i decided to answer first
So far on FF i realised, that different between newbies and oldies is not market knowledge (they all know all what the market itself knows about market. Hint: market has no self awarness)
The different is that neewbie
treat tidion comments as he was neewbie. I have always a lot of laugh with it.

What about market - everything is random. Sunrise is quite random, but I would always bet it will happen.
Same with currency. Its random, but some countries and currencies sucks. Short term, longterm...

And of course MA never lies

Keep posting bully guy. You'll be first I'll vouche for, when become 1KT (need 2 trades more)
  • #364
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:24pm Sep 29, 2008 2:24pm
I'll pop out of retirement for two seconds to say this:

Everybody is entitled to an opinion. Clearly we have very strong willed people posting here that believe in their own perception of reality.

Alas, there is only one truth. I stated what I believe to be true in post #1. If you can't ACTUALLY UNDERSTAND what is moving the price, then you can't guarantee anything. All this chatter about statistical probabilities and "speculation vs. chance" is really chalked up good old fashioned gambling.


What it really boils down to is timing. You open a business and it fails. You open the same business 10 years later and it succeeds. There is really no way to know until you run it. Same with trades. Pushing your buy and sell buttons are all successful when synchronized with a "cooperative" market. High leverage in forex leaves little room for mistakes, so it doesn't take much to whittle your account away.
  • #365
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:25pm Sep 29, 2008 2:25pm
No, the sunrise is not random. Am I in the nut house here or sumfin?
  • #366
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:35pm Sep 29, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting tdion
I'll pop out of retirement for two seconds to say this:

Everybody is entitled to an opinion. Clearly we have very strong willed people posting here that believe in their own perception of reality.

Alas, there is only one truth. I stated what I believe to be true in post #1.
I would like to suggest that you stay out of retirerment. It's nice to read the comments of someone who is clearly sane. (Even if i don't agree with them entirely)

Did't Hanover try to retire once aswell? I guess this place is like Royston Vasey; You'll never leave!
  • #367
  • Sep 29, 2008 3:47pm Sep 29, 2008 3:47pm
Quoting Ted1983
........
Did't Hanover try to retire once aswell? I guess this place is like Royston Vasey; You'll never leave!
Ted, Hanover did retire. I am just an EA that he wrote that keeps posting on the forum.

David II
  • #368
  • Sep 29, 2008 3:59pm Sep 29, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting Ted1983
No, the sunrise is not random. Am I in the nut house here or sumfin?
No, Ted. You've just stepped through a door unlocked with the key of your imagination, beyond it is another dimension. A dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. You're moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. You've just crossed over into....The Factory Zone.
  • #369
  • Sep 29, 2008 4:49pm Sep 29, 2008 4:49pm
Quoting hanover
Ted, Hanover did retire. I am just an EA that he wrote that keeps posting on the forum.

David II
  • #370
  • Sep 29, 2008 5:37pm Sep 29, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting opie999
No, Ted. You've just stepped through a door unlocked with the key of your imagination, beyond it is another dimension. A dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind. You're moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. You've just crossed over into....The Factory Zone.
and it was created by the CERN Hadron Colider (14 billion years ago).
  • #371
  • Sep 29, 2008 7:13pm Sep 29, 2008 7:13pm
Quoting hanover
Ted, Hanover did retire. I am just an EA that he wrote that keeps posting on the forum.

David II
  • #372
  • Sep 29, 2008 7:45pm Sep 29, 2008 7:45pm
Man, this thread goes on and on! There seem to be some open minded, intelligent people responding, so I will try to get a question answered:

When I go into a casino, whatever game I choose to play, I know the fixed % that is against me. Blackjack has the best odds, if I play perfect basic strategy in know that I will play at a -.50% to the house. If I play long enough, I know my results will eventually match that negative expectaion (absent card counting)--that is a mathematical fact that cannot be overcome.

When I take a forex trade, I must start by paying the spread. Any coin flip system can, over time, yield 50% winners, but over the long term that is a loser because of the built in advantage to my market maker of paying the spread.

So, how to build a system that can provide an edge that can, 51% of the time, recover the spread plus 1 pip profit? That seems to be the minimum that a winning system must be able to provide. I have tried exhaustivley for over 5 years everything from the simple to the insanely complex. Fibs, trendlines, indicators (all of them), stop hunting, EW, news trading. I have backtested, backtested...and the most promising I have traded on demo. The successful demo's I have gone live with. I have had periods of wild success and terrible failures. What I cannot get around is this one fact: Over thousands of trades my total losses are pretty close to my total spread costs incurred for those trades.

Can a system be built that can yield a positive expectation? I do not believe that it can...but I have been wrong before!
  • #373
  • Sep 29, 2008 7:47pm Sep 29, 2008 7:47pm
Quoting Kaligula
I do enjoy your posts so much tdion man, but reading all answers is so boring, i decided to answer first
So far on FF i realised, that different between newbies and oldies is not market knowledge (they all know all what the market itself knows about market. Hint: market has no self awarness)
The different is that neewbie
treat tidion comments as he was neewbie. I have always a lot of laugh with it.

What about market - everything is random. Sunrise is quite random, but I would always bet it will happen.
Same with currency. Its random, but some countries and currencies sucks. Short term, longterm...

And of course MA never lies

Keep posting bully guy. You'll be first I'll vouche for, when become 1KT (need 2 trades more)
Would you buy a house in your area randomly......although to an outsider from another part of the world, prices in your area may appear random?

I'm often struck by the absurdity of such a statement. True, we as retailers are perhaps not as close to the auctioneer to get a feel for the values, but I've yet to meet anyone who made a purchase or sale randomly other than those who weren't for one reason or another appraised of the values of the asset they were dealing in.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #374
  • Sep 29, 2008 7:56pm Sep 29, 2008 7:56pm
Let's not forget negative swap either.

It is not only that the coin flips are 50/50..... such that WLWLWLWLWL would be nearly a flat equity curve.....

The reason forex is so tough is the high leverage..... because even with 51/49 odds, you will get LLLWLWLLWLLLLLL from time to time.... which will whittle down the account.

Quoting FX-Petra
When I go into a casino, whatever game I choose to play, I know the fixed % that is against me. Blackjack has the best odds, if I play perfect basic strategy in know that I will play at a -.50% to the house. If I play long enough, I know my results will eventually match that negative expectaion (absent card counting)--that is a mathematical fact that cannot be overcome.

When I take a forex trade, I must start by paying the spread. Any coin flip system can, over time, yield 50% winners, but over the long term that is a loser because of the built in advantage to my market maker of paying the spread.
  • #375
  • Sep 29, 2008 8:25pm Sep 29, 2008 8:25pm
It gets worse:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin
  • #376
  • Sep 29, 2008 8:48pm Sep 29, 2008 8:48pm
I don't believe my eyes...glad to see your back if indeed thats the case??

Quoting tdion
Let's not forget negative swap either.

It is not only that the coin flips are 50/50..... such that WLWLWLWLWL would be nearly a flat equity curve.....

The reason forex is so tough is the high leverage..... because even with 51/49 odds, you will get LLLWLWLLWLLLLLL from time to time.... which will whittle down the account.
It's me...
  • #377
  • Sep 29, 2008 8:53pm Sep 29, 2008 8:53pm
Maybe a little bit here and there. We'll see how it goes.

Quoting AgentFx
I don't believe my eyes...glad to see your back if indeed thats the case??
  • #378
  • Sep 29, 2008 9:15pm Sep 29, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting johnedoe
what the hell is a .... contruct..........
But you knew that.

You still pushing the conspiracy theories about the bailout?
  • #379
  • Sep 29, 2008 9:22pm Sep 29, 2008 9:22pm
Quoting acumen
But you knew that.

You still pushing the conspiracy theories about the bailout?
You mean like todays extortion attempt.......

Quoting johnedoe
Todays big drop in the dow was an extortionists (read wall street) attempt to put fear in the market so they will pass this insane bill. Purely a blatant market manipulation.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #380
  • Sep 29, 2008 9:24pm Sep 29, 2008 9:24pm
Quoting johnedoe
You mean like todays extortion attempt.......
Yeah.

That's what I thought.
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