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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #117,761
  • Edited 2:42am Sep 29, 2008 2:27am | Edited 2:42am
If new H4 candle close below 191.80...we might see 190 or 189. Just wait and see.
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  • #117,762
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:28am Sep 29, 2008 2:28am
Hello all,

This forum looks newbie friendly, so I'll post my question. We're all here to learn aren't we? I've been to babypips, so don't send me there. j/k.

Here is the basis for my question: for currency symbols, the currency on the left is the base currency right? --such as USD/JPY, where USD is the base currency so if you short USD/JPY , you are exchanging USD for JPY, so when the market decided that she is sending USD/JPY DOWN that indicates dollar weakens, and JPY gains strength and the vice versa for a Buy postion.The same applies to GBP/USD, where shorting GPB/USD, you are selling GBP, and buying USD. So, my question is: why is it that GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD can all move in same direction at the same time, and not opposite to each other?
since..

USD/JPY ...down.....dollar weakeness, yen strength
GBP/USD....down....pound weakness, dollar strength
EUR/USD....down....euro weakness, dollar strength

How can there be strength and weakness in the dollar at the same time?
It causes some confusion when trying to dicipher fundamentals, that's why I rely on technicals.
Learning never ends.
  • #117,763
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:35am Sep 29, 2008 2:35am
Quoting kbrown
Hello all,

This forum looks newbie friendly, so I'll post my question. We're all here to learn aren't we? I've been to babypips, so don't send me there. j/k.

Here is the basis for my question: for currency symbols, the currency on the left is the base currency right? --such as USD/JPY, where USD is the base currency so if you short USD/JPY , you are exchanging USD for JPY, so when the market decided that is sending USD/JPY DOWN that indicates dollar weakens, JPY strength and the vice versa for a Buy postion.The same applies to GBP/USD, where shorting GPB/USD, you are selling GBP, and buying USD. So, my question is: why is it that GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD can all move in same direction at the same time, and not opposite to each other?
since..

USD/JPY ...down.....dollar weakeness, yen strength
GBP/USD....down....pound weakness, dollar strength
EUR/USD....down....euro weakness, dollar strength

How can there be strength and weakness in the dollar at the same time?
It causes some confusion when trying to dicipher fundamentals, that why I rely on technicals.


Its not just about the direction but also how quick the movement is in that particular direction.

UJ Down
GU Down
EU Down

translates to USD falling against the JPY however the GBP and EUR is also falling, and in this case, at a faster rate than the USD is falling. The situation you described is possibly the fastest way to win or lose money. UJ down GU down means GJ goes to the shitters
  • #117,764
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:35am Sep 29, 2008 2:35am
Quoting kbrown
Hello all,

why is it that GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD can all move in same direction at the same time, and not opposite to each other?

pound moves up because it's stronger than usd. usd moves up because it's stronger than yen. euro moves up because it's stronger than usd.
  • #117,765
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:38am Sep 29, 2008 2:38am
Quoting kbrown

How can there be strength and weakness in the dollar at the same time?
It causes some confusion when trying to dicipher fundamentals, that's why I rely on technicals.


Because the strength or weakness in the dollar is relative to the other currency. The dollar could be strong compared to the pound but weak compared to the yen.
That's why I also rely mostly on technicals, what I see on the charts. News comes and goes, currencies can fluctuate against each other, but price action on the chart is what tells the story, once you learn to read it accurately
This thread is a great help for that.
  • #117,766
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:45am Sep 29, 2008 2:45am
Quoting TraderStar
That's why I also rely mostly on technicals, what I see on the charts. News comes and goes, currencies can fluctuate against each other, but price action on the chart is what tells the story, once you learn to read it accurately
This thread is a great help for that.
Exactly. The market goes where it naturally has to go. Fundies just makes it do it faster IMHO.
Learning never ends.
  • #117,767
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:46am Sep 29, 2008 2:46am
Quoting kbrown
It causes some confusion when trying to dicipher fundamentals


what your trying to figure is the future value of the instrument or intrinsic value is the technical term. how investors perceive the intrinsic value is what's important. all that depends on what's occurring is why it's hard for some people to grasp. there are 2 major states growth and contraction. so fundamental data has 2 different meanings. if the economy is growing you focus on the growth data and vice versa. in currencies the benchmark rate is very important because it gives an idea which way an economy is heading.. it takes a lot of reading to really grasp it but you want to focus on growth/contraction and interest rate differentials.
  • #117,768
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:50am Sep 29, 2008 2:50am
Quoting kbrown
Hello all,

This forum looks newbie friendly, so I'll post my question. We're all here to learn aren't we? I've been to babypips, so don't send me there. j/k.

Here is the basis for my question: for currency symbols, the currency on the left is the base currency right? --such as USD/JPY, where USD is the base currency so if you short USD/JPY , you are exchanging USD for JPY, so when the market decided that she is sending USD/JPY DOWN that indicates dollar weakens, and JPY gains strength and the vice versa for a Buy postion.The same applies to GBP/USD, where shorting GPB/USD, you are selling GBP, and buying USD. So, my question is: why is it that GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD can all move in same direction at the same time, and not opposite to each other?
since..

USD/JPY ...down.....dollar weakeness, yen strength
GBP/USD....down....pound weakness, dollar strength
EUR/USD....down....euro weakness, dollar strength

How can there be strength and weakness in the dollar at the same time?
It causes some confusion when trying to dicipher fundamentals, that's why I rely on technicals.


if the dollar is strong against the euro, doesnt mean that the dollar should be strong against the yen. Europe and Japan are 2 different economies. People expect Europe to be much more badly hit by financial crisis from US than Japan, so this can be one reason for which Euro is very weak against the $ while the yen is strong.

just my 2 cents.
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #117,769
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:50am Sep 29, 2008 2:50am
target reached
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #117,770
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:52am Sep 29, 2008 2:52am
Quoting karmostaji
target reached
good
whats the next point karmo
  • #117,771
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:52am Sep 29, 2008 2:52am
Quoting karmostaji
target reached
did you take a long?
  • #117,772
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:53am Sep 29, 2008 2:53am
Quoting cullian
did you take a long?
yes with a tight stop just in case it wants to tank hard
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #117,773
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:54am Sep 29, 2008 2:54am
Quoting karmostaji
target reached
Nice!
Mine +46 pips by selling the rally.
Waiting for another rally before selling again
  • #117,774
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:54am Sep 29, 2008 2:54am
Quoting karmostaji
target reached
looks like next target, check the price action, crazy man!
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #117,775
  • Sep 29, 2008 2:56am Sep 29, 2008 2:56am
Quoting bmvmx
looks like next target, check the price action, crazy man!
now the best scenario would be to get the bailout news and GJ rallies hard lol, and we might end up seeing 200 in the coming days, crazy ahaha

if we remain above daily gann and later today/tomorrow close above 4h gann hilo, then 197-198 is on the table again.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #117,776
  • Sep 29, 2008 3:00am Sep 29, 2008 3:00am
Quoting karmostaji
if price starts to bounce off 191.80-192, I might buy with a tight stop

there also lies the daily gann hilo

I wasn't available to take a printscreen of the daily chart at the beginning of candle but we started today with very bearish momentums, and the daily stochastics crossed down.

Also, H4 is also quite bearish which could hold the price down, IMO.
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Learning never ends.
  • #117,777
  • Sep 29, 2008 3:03am Sep 29, 2008 3:03am
Quoting karmostaji
now the best scenario would be to get the bailout news and GJ rallies hard lol, and we might end up seeing 200 in the coming days, crazy ahaha

if we remain above daily gann and later today/tomorrow close above 4h gann hilo, then 197-198 is on the table again.
Karmo my friend, can you please idicate me why are we talking longs now? I closed my shorts, but I dont see any indication of trend rev.

why are we talking longs?
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #117,778
  • Sep 29, 2008 3:06am Sep 29, 2008 3:06am
Now we have new H4 Candle.....if new h4 candle close below 192.22 or 192.00 then we might see another drop around 100 ~ 200 pips.
  • #117,779
  • Sep 29, 2008 3:06am Sep 29, 2008 3:06am
Quoting bmvmx
Karmo my friend, can you please idicate me why are we talking longs now? I closed my shorts, but I dont see any indication of trend rev.

why are we talking longs?
We got a small bounce off the Daily gann, if today's daily candle is not able to close below daily gann hilo then price will start to go back up. so I just risked 1% and took a long at 192, will add upon confirmation.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #117,780
  • Sep 29, 2008 3:12am Sep 29, 2008 3:12am
mornin everyone...hope ye all had a great weekend..baby

I've got to say..i've now officially got no clue as to what this pair is going to do...everyone just seems to be waiting around...

I am so tempted to short but i'm going to wait till Wednesday Oct 1st before i do anything...

oh baby..hope we have a good ride in October...
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