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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #117,721
  • Sep 28, 2008 9:26pm Sep 28, 2008 9:26pm
Quoting bigcoupe
Longs,

I do not see anything at the moment that suggests we will even get to the 197.3 resistance level. I agree that if that breaks, we will go north. However, as stated, there's nothing in the GANN or MOM that suggests we are heading up that far. IMHO, the fundimentals don't support this either. Even if the bill is signed, $250Bil is a far cry from $700Bil +. I don't see the market liking it at all.

Just my HO and I will admit I'm wrong if I am. Won't be the first time

B
I tend to agree with your assessment. Even if it was substantially higher than the 250B most of the market may still recognize the bailout as a drop in the bucket.
History is written by the victors.
  • #117,722
  • Sep 28, 2008 9:38pm Sep 28, 2008 9:38pm
Quoting quecee5
Price is currently trading above the daily gann hi/lo. As long as price is situated above there I look for further upside. . .

I'm looking for a break and close above daily 5sma for further confirmation of my long position. I don't look to short until 200/202 area possibly 205. . .

Short covering is imminent which drive should price thru the roof. . .
Hi there, I sent you a private message... Did you get it?
  • #117,723
  • Sep 28, 2008 9:44pm Sep 28, 2008 9:44pm
Quoting mktjong
Just look at the history for the last 2 years or so. Even though, it doesn't have more than 90% correlation but is still on a positive side as I see it.
Solely based on my observation, Asian currencies are likely tied up together one way or another just like Euro and GBP. If Euro strengthen, GBP tends to follow as it benefits from neighbors' economy. Same principle applies in Asia.
Neverthless, we have also seen the Euro and GBP correlation can way off for some reason on certain occasion but mostly its correlation is on a positive side.
long term there may be some correlation if you are able to smooth the JPY graph out however, the fundamental property is that for the moment CNY is still maintained on a partially controlled peg to the USD, so pretty much even if the CNY is weakening, the jpy is able to fly all over the place.
Attached Image
  • #117,724
  • Sep 28, 2008 9:47pm Sep 28, 2008 9:47pm
Quoting Eulogy
long term there may be some correlation if you are able to smooth the JPY graph out however, the fundamental property is that for the moment CNY is still maintained on a partially controlled peg to the USD, so pretty much even if the CNY is weakening, the jpy is able to fly all over the place.
Exactly. The overall trend of both are in agreement ..
  • #117,725
  • Sep 28, 2008 9:56pm Sep 28, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting Scrat
welcome back.
Thxs bro. . .
Good to be back!
  • #117,726
  • Sep 28, 2008 9:57pm Sep 28, 2008 9:57pm
Quoting mktjong
Exactly. The overall trend of both are in agreement ..
don't be fooled by that chart mktjong, overall trend may be the same but that is like saying the directions of the Cycle waves are the same. 2-3k pip swings in either direction can take you out if you're not careful with your bias.
  • #117,727
  • Sep 28, 2008 9:57pm Sep 28, 2008 9:57pm
Quoting dreed
Hi there, I sent you a private message... Did you get it?
I did - Thxs!
  • #117,728
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:06pm Sep 28, 2008 10:06pm
Okay, I have the high today at 195:43, and I have the gap low from Friday at 195:48, so it missed it by 5 pips. I know igmak said it was filled, but did it, and does 5 pips considered a close. Anyone???
There is no greater gift than to be a friend.
  • #117,729
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:07pm Sep 28, 2008 10:07pm
Hey malcolmb, while we have some dead time, maybe you could direct me to the post where you explain your scalping method. I was wading through your posts, but i can't seem to find it.
  • #117,730
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:11pm Sep 28, 2008 10:11pm
Quoting cullian
Hey malcolmb, while we have some dead time, maybe you could direct me to the post where you explain your scalping method. I was wading through your posts, but i can't seem to find it.
some of my methods have been put in this thread :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=18
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #117,731
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:13pm Sep 28, 2008 10:13pm
Quoting cullian
Hey malcolmb, while we have some dead time, maybe you could direct me to the post where you explain your scalping method. I was wading through your posts, but i can't seem to find it.

also you have to know when to scalp ... mostly the 1st 2 hours of most markets , but London and the euro / us overlap ( 5am to 9am pst) are good as there is loads of volume and volatility
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #117,732
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:14pm Sep 28, 2008 10:14pm
Quoting malcolmb14
also you have to know when to scalp ... mostly the 1st 2 hours of most markets , but London and the euro / us overlap ( 5am to 9am pst) are good as there is loads of volume and volatility
Thanx, let me go check this out
  • #117,733
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:25pm Sep 28, 2008 10:25pm
Is this the retrace of the 1-2-3 sell off the weekly Breakout from the head and shoulder pattern on the weekly?
  • #117,734
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:27pm Sep 28, 2008 10:27pm
Quoting cullian
Thanx, let me go check this out
I thought i had read a post about a 5 sma and rsi somewhere, was that you, or does that explain why i can't find it in your posts?
  • #117,735
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:38pm Sep 28, 2008 10:38pm
Quoting bigcoupe
Longs,

I do not see anything at the moment that suggests we will even get to the 197.3 resistance level. I agree that if that breaks, we will go north. However, as stated, there's nothing in the GANN or MOM that suggests we are heading up that far. IMHO, the fundimentals don't support this either. Even if the bill is signed, $250Bil is a far cry from $700Bil +. I don't see the market liking it at all.

Just my HO and I will admit I'm wrong if I am. Won't be the first time

B
I totally agree, actually I'm in the same boat as you
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #117,736
  • Sep 28, 2008 10:56pm Sep 28, 2008 10:56pm
Quoting quecee5
GJ also having a hard time getting above daily 5sma. . . keeping my eye on the daily candle for further clues. . . 4hr hour chart looks bullish so I'll wait to see what happens. . .

after having some good rest this weekend, and after coming back to look at the charts with a fresh mind;

daily/weekly charts are the best to tell what's going on lately. we have clear rejection of the sub 190 areas and a failure to close below them on the weeklies. therefore, i'm concluding 2 scenarios based on the daily charts:

1) retrace back to 191 area and jumping back up for a good rally that SHOULD reach at least a 50% fibo if not 61.8 of the move down from 215 to 184. i say we should head to the 191 area, because GU is suggesting a bearishness.

2) rally with no retrace to the above fib levels, where UJ is the major player. we should see GU stalling on daily level.

as i mentioned before last week. last week's ranging period HAD to and DID end with a false breakout (which was downwards). i did trade against the breakout on friday's daily s3. this breakout will be confirmed "false" if 197 is taken out. otherwise, and JUST in case, i'm going to start picking tops around 197. if 197 is taken out, then no more longs for me. i'll wait for 200 and 203-204 to start picking tops again. at least that's the plan, for some reason, i don't think i'll be getting the luxery of an easy classic ranging/breakout setup.

good luck all!
  • #117,737
  • Sep 28, 2008 11:04pm Sep 28, 2008 11:04pm
Quoting bigcoupe
Longs,

I do not see anything at the moment that suggests we will even get to the 197.3 resistance level. I agree that if that breaks, we will go north. However, as stated, there's nothing in the GANN or MOM that suggests we are heading up that far. IMHO, the fundimentals don't support this either. Even if the bill is signed, $250Bil is a far cry from $700Bil +. I don't see the market liking it at all.

Just my HO and I will admit I'm wrong if I am. Won't be the first time

B
watch how fundies change just to tell ya how charts are more powerful...

and yes, there IS a reason to be long: a classic false breach of a CCI TL coupled with a bullish HD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_4h.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #117,738
  • Sep 28, 2008 11:10pm Sep 28, 2008 11:10pm
Quoting lilmoe
watch how fundies change just to tell ya how charts are more powerful...

and yes, there IS a reason to be long: a classic false breach of a CCI TL coupled with a bullish HD.

Attachment
this is a chart i posted back on the 5th when i predicted a potential CCI TL forming. it did form. i posted the chart back at the 16th and here it is again:

we have a good bearish HD forming on the dailies, and until i see a breach of that CCI TL (that i would consider confirmation for the bearish HD), i think we should head up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_daily.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #117,739
  • Sep 28, 2008 11:12pm Sep 28, 2008 11:12pm
Well i think I am only one who aim for 189.20 level here
  • #117,740
  • Sep 28, 2008 11:15pm Sep 28, 2008 11:15pm
Quoting 5ysfx
Well i think I am only one who aim for 189.20 level here
well i'm targeting 190 so yeah, around the same.
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