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Higher low, lower high system

  • #61
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:24am Sep 26, 2008 2:24am
Out already looking at 1 min for another sell just below S2.

Jpy can easily bounce 30 pips so if it comes back around 10-12 or so I'll get out.

Just sold again, very tight stop here.
  • #62
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:33am Sep 26, 2008 2:33am
Quoting Vantage
Out already looking at 1 min for another sell just below S2.

Jpy can easily bounce 30 pips so if it comes back around 10-12 or so I'll get out.

Just sold again, very tight stop here.
Sweet re-entry. Like the way you drill down with this. I'm looking at this on FDAX as well as FX. Thanks for sharing your work.
  • #63
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:34am Sep 26, 2008 2:34am
Got out of 2nd leg down right on 154.00 lets see if i regret it.

Re-entry off 1 min chart.
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  • #64
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:47am Sep 26, 2008 2:47am
Do I regret getting out of Jpy at 154.00 when it looks like going lower, no (well OK just a little). Its been a great morning so far and I could just easily say cheers and go do something else.

My personal views. Trading naked with this system, pivots, etc etc has made me a MUCH better trader than when I was using indicators. Small stops = decent lots as % of capital = good ROE.

So if you grab 20 pips a trade and net that on a daily basis you can comfortably trade 1 lot per $10000 in your account with a really small % risk. 20 pips a day net = 40% return per month. I'm happy this system works for me.

I've picked up lots of things here and there and I hope some of this thread helps someone else. Even if its one idea that tweaks your system thats fine.

Cheers, have a good 'un!
  • #65
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:47am Sep 26, 2008 2:47am
Quoting ChowClown
Sweet re-entry. Like the way you drill down with this. I'm looking at this on FDAX as well as FX. Thanks for sharing your work.
My pleasure.
  • #66
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:53am Sep 26, 2008 2:53am
Can we get EJ again according 1 min chart?
  • #67
  • Sep 26, 2008 2:55am Sep 26, 2008 2:55am
I do trade very narrow channel break outs. Those I like but I don't have as much success when the channels are a bit wider as the eur was this am.

Here's a comparison between a larger channel eur break south this am and the jpy sell. Eur moved 50 pips so far jpy 110 from the original lh entry.

Selling the lh on jpy around 154.80 gives you 30 pips down before it hits its first resistance level at 154.50. A channel break out can come unstuck 4 pips or whatever below the channel.
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  • #68
  • Sep 26, 2008 3:00am Sep 26, 2008 3:00am
Quoting neshat
Can we get EJ again according 1 min chart?
You can as it looks like this could be one of those very, very weak days where you just sell everything in sight.

If it doesn't turn out to be one of those ultra weak days then you've got to look at the 200 pip drop jpy has had already this am. Its got to stop somewhere.

Every move down is that much closer to the end of the run and a big bounce up.
  • #69
  • Sep 26, 2008 3:10am Sep 26, 2008 3:10am
Quoting neshat
Can we get EJ again according 1 min chart?
Another thing, if you are up 100 pips on this move its very easy to sell every 1 min bounce risking 10-15 pips. If you're starting to get in after a 200 pip run thats a different story.

LH's/HL's work but nobody knows when the run will be over.
  • #70
  • Sep 26, 2008 3:26am Sep 26, 2008 3:26am
Quoting Vantage
Once price has moved around 100 pips eurusd and gbpusd can easily have good counter trend trade bounces off round numbers and pivots.

...I look for higher lows/lower highs off 5 and 1 min charts.

Hi Van,

Is this an example of what you were talking about, and if so, how would this have been traded?

Thanks,

VBro
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  • #71
  • Sep 26, 2008 3:42am Sep 26, 2008 3:42am
Quoting vbro
Hi Van,

Is this an example of what you were talking about, and if so, how would this have been traded?

Thanks,

VBro
Hi VBro
My wife pulled a muscle and shes in bed so I've been on the making tea and is everything OK routine. I wasn't even looking at this.

On the 1hr S1 is right on yesterdays low. If you look at daily this was support towards the end of Aug so yes a good place for a bounce.

You can look at 1 min for a higher low. I would be very quick to take profits in this case at 1.46 as it is against the trend. If you have taken a quick profit and it falls it could shape up on 5 min as a hl (which it may be doing now).

Whilst my exits are getting better obviously this mornings jpy exit looked good then fell another 50. C'est la vie!

As I've said before I'm more of a you don't go broke with profits in the bank kind of person so some moves I do miss out on.
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  • #72
  • Edited 3:46am Sep 26, 2008 3:46am | Edited 3:46am
Hi Vantage,

I have a few questions if you allow me.

My own method has similarities, although I use no indicators as such and results are more driven by money management and position sizing.

What are your average ratios (let's say per month for statistical sake) in
terms of win/loss, reward/risk and percent risk of equity?

Thank you for your time.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #73
  • Sep 26, 2008 4:12am Sep 26, 2008 4:12am
Quoting daytrading
Hi Vantage,

I have a few questions if you allow me.

My own method has similarities, although I use no indicators as such and results are more driven by money management and position sizing.

What are your average ratios (let's say per month for statistical sake) in
terms of win/loss, reward/risk and percent risk of equity?

Thank you for your time.

regards
daytrading
Hi daytrading

A simple question excuse the long answer. You should have put me down on a couch and charged me a few hundred bucks!!

Its quite difficult to answer because in my results are news trades (different system) and I've only seen the no indicator naked trading light switch go on around 3 months ago. What really sparked the change was a comment I heard that stayed with me for some time, the first retracement is the best trade. I couldn't get that idea out of my head. Effectively this means the first lh/hl.

It took me quite a while to take that comment and build a trading idea around it. Mentally I had to get rid of the indicator crutch, that also took a while. Then I had to figure out what worked at a level where small stops could be utilised. I still cannot fathom a 100 pip stop, I tip my hat to those that can and make it work effectively.

I'd have to say that my trading has gone from 0-10% pm (someone said to me if the pro traders are happy with a couple of % pm then why do you think you can do more) to last month 25% (for the month) and this month I'm on 30% (for the month) as we stand right now. A 50% increase in 2 months.

I cannot recall this system giving 2 losing trades in a row. Stops are 1.5% of capital. So if I do have a losing trade I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. Serious draw down has not been an issue so far.

More importantly I've been ironing out some of my issues to the point where I was happy to start the thread and firmly believe that I'll be able to get to the 40% pm level and keep it there.
  • #74
  • Sep 26, 2008 4:19am Sep 26, 2008 4:19am
Looks like jpy is going to have one of those ultra weak days, falling after posting a higher high.

This is not a system trade but its a sell if you believe that fact. If 153.50 fails it could get interesting again.
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  • #75
  • Sep 26, 2008 4:34am Sep 26, 2008 4:34am
Quoting Vantage
Hi daytrading

A simple question excuse the long answer. You should have put me down on a couch and charged me a few hundred bucks!!

Its quite difficult to answer because in my results are news trades (different system) and I've only seen the no indicator naked trading light switch go on around 3 months ago. What really sparked the change was a comment I heard that stayed with me for some time, the first retracement is the best trade. I couldn't get that idea out of my head. Effectively this means the first lh/hl.

It took me quite a while to take that comment and build a trading idea around it. Mentally I had to get rid of the indicator crutch, that also took a while. Then I had to figure out what worked at a level where small stops could be utilised. I still cannot fathom a 100 pip stop, I tip my hat to those that can and make it work effectively.

I'd have to say that my trading has gone from 0-10% pm (someone said to me if the pro traders are happy with a couple of % pm then why do you think you can do more) to last month 25% (for the month) and this month I'm on 30% (for the month) as we stand right now. A 50% increase in 2 months.

I cannot recall this system giving 2 losing trades in a row. Stops are 1.5% of capital. So if I do have a losing trade I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. Serious draw down has not been an issue so far.

More importantly I've been ironing out some of my issues to the point where I was happy to start the thread and firmly believe that I'll be able to get to the 40% pm level and keep it there.
Hi Vantage,

Thank you for your comprehensive answer. Yes, I have had many traders on my couch over the past decade, hahaha.....being a couch patient the 10 years before that myself.

Since you have been using the method, how do you aproach the profit taking aspect? (If I believe a trade has more than a "small" potential, I taylor the position size in order to buy a "free" or at least "reduced risk" trade)

In other words, do you have a mechanical way of establishing a profit target or do you just wait and see how far it might go?

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #76
  • Sep 26, 2008 4:41am Sep 26, 2008 4:41am
Van,

What do you think about a EJ long (counter trend, so tight stop, tight profit)? HL and double bottom...

Or too much strength in shorts today to make this worth risking?

VBro

Edit : 5 min entry candle too big, maybe a retrace on the 1 min?
  • #77
  • Sep 26, 2008 4:54am Sep 26, 2008 4:54am
Quoting daytrading
Hi Vantage,

Thank you for your comprehensive answer. Yes, I have had many traders on my couch over the past decade, hahaha.....being a couch patient the 10 years before that myself.

Since you have been using the method, how do you aproach the profit taking aspect? (If I believe a trade has more than a "small" potential, I taylor the position size in order to buy a "free" or at least "reduced risk" trade)

In other words, do you have a mechanical way of establishing a profit target or do you just wait and see how far it might go?

regards
daytrading
I have no mechanical way of taking a profit if you mean a fib ext or similar.

Once in I'm focusing on the next problem area which for example on the jpy sell at 154.80 is the previous low at 154.50. The next target was S2 which if I recall wasn't a problem.

I will exit if there is around 12 pips or so pull back against me. I'll re-enter from 1 min which I did at 154.34. From there the 1st problem area is the previous trades low at 154.18.

As there was a pivot and round number I exited 2nd trade at 154.00. So I'm looking to go through pivots, supp/res areas and round numbers and once through targeting the next one.

I'll exit anything that gives too big a pullback against me looking to re-enter off 1 min chart. This works often but as mentioned the 154.00 exit was premature, but heck it was a good day until then.
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  • #78
  • Sep 26, 2008 4:58am Sep 26, 2008 4:58am
Quoting vbro
Van,

What do you think about a EJ long (counter trend, so tight stop, tight profit)? HL and double bottom...

Or too much strength in shorts today to make this worth risking?

VBro

Edit : 5 min entry candle too big, maybe a retrace on the 1 min?
Right now I'm thinking 2 things, lunch (I'm outta here in 2 mins) and pre US session lull which can happen round about now. Watch jpy fall 100 pips as I leave the room!!

I think things are just too weak for jpy today and thats what I'll be looking for after lunch.

Cheers
  • #79
  • Edited 5:26am Sep 26, 2008 5:06am | Edited 5:26am
Hi Vantage,

Thank very much for the explanation.

I see you are using a mov. avg. similar to what I am using - although I use it on the H1 time frame.

Would it be an idea to use your 5ema(3shift) as an exit point once the price closes on the other side of the move?

(attached the a screen shot of how I enter)

Anyway, I won't take up more of your time - thanks indeed for yours.

regards
daytrading
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Enter Signature
  • #80
  • Sep 26, 2008 6:19am Sep 26, 2008 6:19am
Quoting daytrading
Hi Vantage,

Thank very much for the explanation.

I see you are using a mov. avg. similar to what I am using - although I use it on the H1 time frame.

Would it be an idea to use your 5ema(3shift) as an exit point once the price closes on the other side of the move?

(attached the a screen shot of how I enter)

Anyway, I won't take up more of your time - thanks indeed for yours.

regards
daytrading
5 ema is definitely worth looking at.

On longer quick moves it will keep you in as it will take some time for the ema to catch up with price. On shorter moves say 30-40 pips you could easily see 50-70% of the trade given back if you exit on a close other side of ema.

So its a catch 22, do you risk losing out on some of bigger moves or risk losing a big portion of the more frequent shorter moves.
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