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Honest answers please! Are you successful trading on Forex or not?

  • #21
  • Feb 21, 2007 10:23am Feb 21, 2007 10:23am
Hello okay lets try and sort something here I suggest you stop being so negative on this forum where people like myself try to help, I know I lost my cool but your comments where an oviously insult you know everyone on this forum is trying to succeed and don't need people putting them down telling them to get real work and stop dreaming.

I and many others are interested if you would care to tell us what it is that's going so wrong I mean we know your systems are not winning but could you inform us of why give examples on some bad trades using your system I know your not interested in all the money management speech so why not tell us exactly what happens.
  • #22
  • Feb 21, 2007 10:33am Feb 21, 2007 10:33am
Quoting scolo
Hello okay lets try and sort something here I suggest you stop being so negative on this forum where people like myself try to help, I know I lost my cool but your comments where an oviously insult you know everyone on this forum is trying to succeed and don't need people putting them down telling them to get real work and stop dreaming.

I and many others are interested if you would care to tell us what it is that's going so wrong I mean we know your systems are not winning but could you inform us of why give examples on some bad trades using your system I know your not interested in all the money management speech so why not tell us exactly what happens.
About Money Management:
- I would always trade 1% of my account.
- I would always have my stop-losses and limit orders in place. I have backtested most of the systems with very different stop-loss order and limit orders. Usually with 2:1 profit/loss ratio.
- I think showing a few examples of any system are quite much worthless (sorry but true), because the long time steadiness of the system is what matters in the end anyway.

All I wan't is a system that would work 60% of time with 1:1 money management.

Or a system that would work 45% of time with 2:1 money management.

Nothing else, but ohhhh I don't have a such thing.
  • #23
  • Feb 21, 2007 10:42am Feb 21, 2007 10:42am
Come on yakumojpn Try and give us something a mean what do you use to make your decisions what makes you decide to buy or sell something and just tell us don't keep coming with your crap about this wont help and that wont work.
  • #24
  • Feb 21, 2007 10:43am Feb 21, 2007 10:43am
Quoting yakumojpn
About Money Management:
- I would always trade 1% of my account.
- I would always have my stop-losses and limit orders in place. I have backtested most of the systems with very different stop-loss order and limit orders. Usually with 2:1 profit/loss ratio.
- I think showing a few examples of any system are quite much worthless (sorry but true), because the long time steadiness of the system is what matters in the end anyway.

All I wan't is a system that would work 60% of time with 1:1 money management.

Or a system that would work 45% of time with 2:1 money management.

Nothing else, but ohhhh I don't have a such thing.
try this:-

100 wma cross 50 wma...take profit 20 stoploss 10 on eurusd
  • #25
  • Feb 21, 2007 11:18am Feb 21, 2007 11:18am
Quoting hanz
try this:-

100 wma cross 50 wma...take profit 20 stoploss 10 on eurusd
Which timeframe then? Any timeframe? I guess the stop-losses and take profits should change depending of the tifeframe? Or to use ATR for stop-losses and take profits? If so, then which period ATR?

I could backtest this or any system manually on example EUR/USD as you suggested:
1) H1 - 16.06.2004 --> 21.02.2007
2) D1 - 07.04.1989 --> 04.10.2006

But the problem with this system is:
A) Take profit 20 and stop-loss 10 are definately too small for even h1 charts - I do backtest candle-by-candle and it might easily go to stop-loss and take profit within one candle, so we can't know which happened first.

B) Secondly it's pointless to have such a small take profit and stop-losses - you will have to pay at least 1.5 pip spread per a trade - that's 7.5% for a comissions cost per a trade (1.5/20*100=7.5%) - sorry, but that's ridigiliously too much !

And other pairs as well if it works on EUR/USD first at all. And then publish the MetaTrader 4 .tpl file with the buy/sell arrows and the .txt file with the results.

Personally I don't think this system is gonna give any steady results but I could backtest it anyway to prove that it won't. But the stop-losses and take profits must change before I'm gonna do it, because trading on shorther anything than 1h is just against the odds too much - because of the high spreads of the brokers and the 1.5 pips is even smallest by Oanda (most of the time),
  • #26
  • Feb 21, 2007 11:35am Feb 21, 2007 11:35am
Quoting scolo
Come on yakumojpn Try and give us something a mean what do you use to make your decisions what makes you decide to buy or sell something and just tell us don't keep coming with your crap about this wont help and that wont work.
That's the problem - I don't have anything that I could prove it works steady. I can only prove that nothing works

Showing some examples is pointless, but I will do it anyway because you asked it. (I only care about long time backtesting).

Most of my testing has been about buying the pullbacks.
1) Whether it's the Rob Booker promoted example: 5/13/62 (actually 13/62 only, that 5 period EMA is quite pointless in there anyway - it only signals "to be ready", heh).

2) ADX with different periods (example 14 or 21), signals a strong trendline and keeps away from ranging markets. And then when the price will start to retrace back from trendline, then to buy on the pullbacks:
2.1) shorther trends - example illustrated by EMA 10-20
2.2) medium trends - example illustrated by EMA 50-60
2.3) longer trender - example illustrated by EMA 120-150

or within the fancy fibonacci EMA's

2.4) shorther trends - example illustrated by EMA 13-21
2.5) medium trends - example illustrated by EMA 55-89
2.6) longer trender - example illustrated by EMA 144-233

or within the fancy fibonacci retracements
2.7) 38.2 level
2.8) 61.8 level

ohh, and I have so many other systems, but well you know what I will say already
  • #27
  • Feb 21, 2007 11:51am Feb 21, 2007 11:51am
Well, as happens with these types of threads, every time. They degenerate into a series of name calling and that is not acceptable at Forex Factory.

This thread is closed
  • #28
  • Feb 21, 2007 1:45pm Feb 21, 2007 1:45pm
I have reopened this thread and request that there be no more insults..
I have deleted the posts. thanks Scott
  • #29
  • Feb 21, 2007 2:21pm Feb 21, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting yakumojpn
I'm not chasing for the perfect 100%, I haven't seen a single system based on price action or indicators that would be even 60% right of time.

Please go ahead and show me 1 strategy that's 60% correct and I will backtest it?
Ok try it out. Look for pin bars (dojis) on daily charts. Trade them when they are in reason to be traded.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #30
  • Feb 21, 2007 2:51pm Feb 21, 2007 2:51pm
Stop backtesting ... start forward-testing.
Keeping it Simple
  • #31
  • Feb 21, 2007 3:15pm Feb 21, 2007 3:15pm
Why don't you read 'Trading in the Zone'.

You don't need a system with a 60% success rate to be successful. That's all trading myth to hype up the newbies.

The truth is.....any system works! The key point is to able to make the MOST out of winning trades. While losses are inevitable, the winning trades MUST be amplified through POSITION ADDING.

I've seen great systems through journals that can significantly improve and I've done it myself, where you add your positions on your winning trade over and over again. By the time you're stopped out, you would have gotten 300 more pips than the guy who just used a single position. That 300 pips is what will help you cover or offset the losing streaks that we all face.

Good luck
  • #32
  • Feb 21, 2007 3:25pm Feb 21, 2007 3:25pm
Quoting smjones
Well, as happens with these types of threads, every time.
i think you mean this happens with these kinds of thread starters

if ya ain't here to trade, you'll probably end up causing trouble!
Relax and be happy.
  • #33
  • Feb 21, 2007 3:39pm Feb 21, 2007 3:39pm
Quoting habeeb
Stop backtesting ... start forward-testing.
Perfectly stated...thanks Habeeb!
  • #34
  • Edited 4:13pm Feb 21, 2007 3:53pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting hilmy83
Why don't you read 'Trading in the Zone'.

You don't need a system with a 60% success rate to be successful. That's all trading myth to hype up the newbies.

The truth is.....any system works! The key point is to able to make the MOST out of winning trades. While losses are inevitable, the winning trades MUST be amplified through POSITION ADDING.

I've seen great systems through journals that can significantly improve and I've done it myself, where you add your positions on your winning trade over and over again. By the time you're stopped out, you would have gotten 300 more pips than the guy who just used a single position. That 300 pips is what will help you cover or offset the losing streaks that we all face.

Good luck
This is a very interesting post and it may be taking a slight tangent from the original question but here goes :

You may or may not have been referring to my journal as an example but you have posted in it. Anyhow, as you know my method is a daily trend based system of sorts where I only use one position.

I have looked at adding positions as a trend takes hold which all sounds great in theory but at what point do you start adding positions? Once I move my stop loss into profit would seem like an ideal point and certainly when a trend goes on for 500 plus pips I can see the advantages.

However, the new position(s) must have to start with a stop loss of their own and you could easily therefore turn an original profit into an overall loss. For example, I enter a long position and after two bull days have moved my s/l into profit and then have in essence a free trade. I then enter a second position with a stop loss and the next day the market reverses. So, I now have turned a winning trade into a losing one.

Certainly, I can see the benefits but backtesting it any which way shows to me that although I gain big time when the market really trends, I would lose out as much when it doesn't, which happens much more. Maybe my brain just can't figure this out but I cannot see it lol.

Any comments would be welcome.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #35
  • Feb 21, 2007 8:25pm Feb 21, 2007 8:25pm
steviet,

I agree that position adding (also called pyramiding right ?) is really the hardest skill in trading. The technicals (perhaps breakout possibilities) and the market sentiment (news) have to be inline for this to be practical.

One good opportunity was USD/JPY. It has been a bullish pair for months and the days before BOJ announcement, there was a reversal price pattern that shows the pair's technicals is resuming it's long-term bullish movement, and then the carry traders got back in after the news and there we go ... 200 pips in 3 days .. we could have pyramided in that strong trend. I missed it.

But still .. it's the hardest part in trading that I know of.
  • #36
  • Feb 21, 2007 9:03pm Feb 21, 2007 9:03pm
The problem is he comes here with the opinion that nothing works because he hasn't found a profitable system yet. And while at the same time discrediting everything anyone has suggested to him, wants to be provided with a winning strategy.

As if anyone can trade a system just so long as it is 60% or better w/l ratio. A scalper type trader can be given a winning swing trade system and fail because it doesn't suit them and vice versa.

Some of the best traders in the world can trade based on a flip of a coin - with the right pyschology, discipline and money management.

There is nothing wrong with taking bits and pieces from others but it has to work for each individual or they won't be successful.
  • #37
  • Feb 21, 2007 11:08pm Feb 21, 2007 11:08pm
Quoting steviet
This is a very interesting post and it may be taking a slight tangent from the original question but here goes :

You may or may not have been referring to my journal as an example but you have posted in it. Anyhow, as you know my method is a daily trend based system of sorts where I only use one position.

I have looked at adding positions as a trend takes hold which all sounds great in theory but at what point do you start adding positions? Once I move my stop loss into profit would seem like an ideal point and certainly when a trend goes on for 500 plus pips I can see the advantages.

However, the new position(s) must have to start with a stop loss of their own and you could easily therefore turn an original profit into an overall loss. For example, I enter a long position and after two bull days have moved my s/l into profit and then have in essence a free trade. I then enter a second position with a stop loss and the next day the market reverses. So, I now have turned a winning trade into a losing one.

Certainly, I can see the benefits but backtesting it any which way shows to me that although I gain big time when the market really trends, I would lose out as much when it doesn't, which happens much more. Maybe my brain just can't figure this out but I cannot see it lol.

Any comments would be welcome.

Kind Regards
Steve
well i wasn't really referrrin to anyone. I just notice that a lot of people on journals seem to have one position for every trade. Wouldn't it be nice to have multiple positions to capitalize on? I mean it's a fact that trend traders only win 30-40% of the time, so position adding is essential in the long term.

This is the way I do it..

Basically when I enter a trade, I mark horizontal levels on the next high/low on the weekly/monthly chart. This is my 'add on' position mark. When the price closed beyond this line, I add position with a new s/l ONLY WHEN THE ORIGINAL POSITION is profitable. And I always use half lots on added positions than the first position. Since my original position is always 2%, all added positions are 1% and I move all s/l to the new s/l of the new position (making sure that with the updated s/l old positions are now in profit!)

So by adding to positions wiht half the lots onto position that's already locked in profit, I ensure that I do not eliminate my profits. It's true, that your profits may reduce when added positions are stopped out, it's not by much since you added half positions to bigger positions which already are in profits.

There are many ways to add to positions, that's just mine. But I think the most important thing like you said is to not turn a winner trade into a loser. That's why I take caution that if the position that I'm adding with the new common s/l doesn't bring the previous positions in profit, then I let it run until I reach an new level.

think about the last BIG TRADE. you had. Over several hundred pips. Multiply that by 2 or 3 positions, it would definitely help you out maybe in January or first half of february this year...
peace
  • #38
  • Feb 21, 2007 11:36pm Feb 21, 2007 11:36pm
geez this thread got off course.........

yes, i make money trading forex, a lot of it

when im good, im absolutely deadly, and rediculously profitable

when im bad, it's usually not as dramatic as the wins because i have a healthy fear and respect of this market, and i dont mind getting out and taking the loss

i will be the first to admit, i panic-out sometimes, you all know what i mean

just thoughts
  • #39
  • Feb 23, 2007 2:13am Feb 23, 2007 2:13am
I'm successful with a 1 pip EURUSD, and 2 pip GBPUSD spread, but would not presently be profitable if these spreads were any bigger.
  • #40
  • Feb 24, 2007 11:11am Feb 24, 2007 11:11am
Quoting jimbil
I'm successful with a 1 pip EURUSD, and 2 pip GBPUSD spread, but would not presently be profitable if these spreads were any bigger.
Hi Jimbil, who is your current broker? A one pip spread is amazing. Are there any drawbacks with your broker? Thanks for a reply.
I dream, therefore I become.
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