Why Indicators will fail you | Page 10 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why do indicators not work/work? Why is Forex not truly random? 129 replies

If most indicators are made to fail.. 4 replies

Why Indicators will help you 43 replies

Why You May Fail Going From Demo to Real 4 replies

Why technical indicators and MTS fail... 14 replies

Attachments: Why Indicators will fail you
Exit Attachments

Why Indicators will fail you

  • #181
  • Sep 23, 2008 8:23pm Sep 23, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting FXoffshore
FYI. The American all time trading champion, Robert Prechter Jr, achieved over 440% in 4 months using real money. His record stands nearly 30 years later. He is a Hall of Fame trader, author of a dozen books and courses, famous for calling market turns before they happen, and followed by over 100,000 subscribers, plus least of all he is my Elliott mentor.
The what ....................... he is not even close.

And that includes being close on EW prediction. I seem to recall that he was saying a Major Top in Dow was coming. Only things was he said this about 1989 I think. And then he got out his pencil and found a few of those infamous "X" waves and said the top would be here, no here, no here a couple more times in the 90's.

Having said this I do use Elliott Wave in my trading - the practical not theoretical way that EWI expresses. The idea is to find trades, not label every twist and turn.
  • #182
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:10am Sep 24, 2008 2:10am
Anyone tried to apply successfully volume in Forex instead of losing with math formulas?
  • #183
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:09am Sep 24, 2008 8:09am
Quoting denbur
Anyone tried to apply successfully volume in Forex instead of losing with math formulas?
Sure, just open the Euro 6E Futs contract and use the volume for that. I don't really use vol much myself though but do take notice of spikes.
  • #184
  • Sep 24, 2008 12:20pm Sep 24, 2008 12:20pm
yes man, I remember that situation with marketers conferences like a year ago in central London I finally decided to attend one of those meetings, I was amazed at some point looking at me nearly convinced… at the end I left without belief on that business… with FOREX it is completely different tough, I know that there are risks, I realize that people can earn good bucks(or Pounds or Euros, etc) but it will depend in how do you invest what tools do you use, how do you analyze the indicators and making an articulation between the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis.
  • #185
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:26pm Sep 24, 2008 2:26pm
Quoting bugscoe
Sure, just open the Euro 6E Futs contract and use the volume for that. I don't really use vol much myself though but do take notice of spikes.

well I use just volume without any indicators for several years already. Livermore you cited, used just price and volume and was laughing at people you tried to listen to news and use sort of technical analysis and forecasts.
  • #186
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:08pm Sep 24, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting denbur
well I use just volume without any indicators for several years already. Livermore you cited, used just price and volume and was laughing at people you tried to listen to news and use sort of technical analysis and forecasts.
Well unless you are planning on using volume from currency futures there is no such thing as volume in forex. Tick volume which is not really true volume and the fact that forex does not have a central trading exchange negates the use of volume type indicators.
  • #187
  • Sep 24, 2008 7:52pm Sep 24, 2008 7:52pm
Quoting SunTrader
Well unless you are planning on using volume from currency futures there is no such thing as volume in forex. Tick volume which is not really true volume and the fact that forex does not have a central trading exchange negates the use of volume type indicators.
lol. if you don't understand tick volume that does not mean it is useless. i use tick volume and price only to see supply and demand and to track professionals on their own turf.

esignal provides cumulative volume from over 300 banks and brokers it covers about 80% of the market. plus you don't have to know except volume numbers.

I put examples how this is possible at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=105655
  • #188
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:08pm Sep 24, 2008 8:08pm
Quoting denbur
lol. if you don't understand tick volume that does not mean it is useless. i use tick volume and price only to see supply and demand and to track professionals on their own turf.

esignal provides cumulative volume from over 300 banks and brokers it covers about 80% of the market. plus you don't have to know except volume numbers.

I put examples how this is possible at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=105655
PA used in conjunction with volume in other markets is extremely powerful.

The feed from esignal would be quite handy, not entirely precise, but good enough IMO.
  • #189
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:04am Sep 25, 2008 4:04am
Hi all.
I am newbie here and I am really interested reading the posts here. I am pretty much impressed with steelhead that he trades on price action. Would you mind sharing how to read the price movements. Is there any way to identify the price or is there any indicator as to look at the price movements. How to tackle it into trades....where to put an entry or exit?....Please I am blind now..I have used so many indicators consistently but as you know they are all lagging and most of the time we may take a wrong move. Those indicators are not the predictive type when the price moves.

Wish you all good luck and all the best...happy trading.
Regards.
arrusyd
  • #190
  • Sep 25, 2008 9:23am Sep 25, 2008 9:23am
Quoting denbur
lol. if you don't understand tick volume that does not mean it is useless. i use tick volume and price only to see supply and demand and to track professionals on their own turf.

esignal provides cumulative volume from over 300 banks and brokers it covers about 80% of the market. plus you don't have to know except volume numbers.

I put examples how this is possible at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=105655
Yeah, how about the fact that what is called volume is actually just movement in the bid, hmmmm? Otherwise what does movement of 1, 1, 1 represents. 1 large lot, 1 minisize lot, 10 large etc.

Or to ask it a different way, do you know with what they are calling volume, how much US$ equivalent value is in that? I would guess not.
  • #191
  • Sep 25, 2008 9:51am Sep 25, 2008 9:51am
Quoting SunTrader
Yeah, how about the fact that what is called volume is actually just movement in the bid, hmmmm? Otherwise what does movement of 1, 1, 1 represents. 1 large lot, 1 minisize lot, 10 large etc.

Or to ask it a different way, do you know with what they are calling volume, how much US$ equivalent value is in that? I would guess not.

Tick volume, as any other, is the activity of professionals. You cant sell $10mil to the public with one single trade. You will be selling it in pieces at different prices and that will be shown in increase of volume.


In Forex where 80% is the professional activity, when professional are active there is a fundamental reason for that and you should be expecting results of their actions.

I am not looking for exact numbers in volume, i don't care what they are. I am looking for relative volume to its previous bars and what market has accomplished on that activity.

In analyzing volume-price relationship I am looking at the effort and results of this effort. For example, if there is an effort to go up and tick volume spikes, but the market refuses to go up on that “healthy” volume, that mean something is stopping the market. And what can stop if not selling

As looking for activity, I also look when there is NO or less professional activity in the market. there is a reason why professionals are not active, in times they know the market is weak and they withdraw their support.


I had simular questions asked before. I attached my old charts where I compared volume for Euro Futures, Euro Stock, and Euro Cash (Forex). You can see that the only difference in these charts is how volume is called, tick, shares, contracts. the results are the same.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Daily_Euro_2008-09-04.doc   161 KB | 363 downloads
  • #192
  • Sep 25, 2008 11:28am Sep 25, 2008 11:28am
I have my doubts that eSignal volume represents 80% of banks, brokers maybe - which is the little guys. If it works for you though, thats all that matters.
  • #193
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:51pm Sep 25, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting SunTrader
I have my doubts that eSignal volume represents 80% of banks, brokers maybe - which is the little guys. If it works for you though, thats all that matters.
esignal collects volume from such banks as Deutche Bank, HSBC, Merryl Lynch, Bank of America, there are 6 banks that represent 60% of trading volume in the forex. Plus big brokers as FXCM, FXSol, Oanda and etc. by the way its is not eSignal who cellects data. If you still do not know, there is data feed called GTIS, it is used by major banks and brokers to trade forex. It is considered the most advanced for placing orders. esignal offers subscribtion to this data feed in there charting package. it also has Level 2 or Depth level, like US Stock market has. this allows you to see who are the buyer and seller and how much of them on each level in any pair.
  • #194
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:06pm Sep 25, 2008 3:06pm
Quoting enthran
In my opinion, support/resistance levels, in terms of price and time, have the final say.

Fibo support/resistance levels work well most of the time, especially when there are confluences from different Fib ranges. I don't see why something that works everywhere in the universe does not work in the financial markets.

I do agree that "indicator are just that, indicators". They indicate something, to support our decision, enter, exit or stay out. But both, indicators and support/resistance levels have to go hand in hand so we'll have a higher winning probability trades.
Honestly bro,I just feel that some where lies the Golden Grail for techs-as for me, trend lines and support lines do some real wonders on my platform
http://www.aybl2002.blogspot.com
  • #195
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:08pm Sep 25, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting denbur
esignal collects volume from such banks as Deutche Bank, HSBC, Merryl Lynch, Bank of America, there are 6 banks that represent 60% of trading volume in the forex. Plus big brokers as FXCM, FXSol, Oanda and etc. by the way its is not eSignal who cellects data. If you still do not know, there is data feed called GTIS, it is used by major banks and brokers to trade forex. It is considered the most advanced for placing orders. esignal offers subscribtion to this data feed in there charting package. it also has Level 2 or Depth level, like US Stock market has. this allows you to see who are the buyer and seller and how much of them on each level in any pair.

Please what is esignal? Could you please tell me about it?
  • #196
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:29pm Sep 25, 2008 3:29pm
Quoting denbur
esignal collects volume from such banks as Deutche Bank, HSBC, Merryl Lynch, Bank of America, there are 6 banks that represent 60% of trading volume in the forex. Plus big brokers as FXCM, FXSol, Oanda and etc. by the way its is not eSignal who cellects data. If you still do not know, there is data feed called GTIS, it is used by major banks and brokers to trade forex. It is considered the most advanced for placing orders. esignal offers subscribtion to this data feed in there charting package. it also has Level 2 or Depth level, like US Stock market has. this allows you to see who are the buyer and seller and how much of them on each level in any pair.
Please provide a link from eSignal that backs what you're saying here about how they collect volume.
  • #197
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:03pm Sep 25, 2008 4:03pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore
FYI. The American all time trading champion, Robert Prechter Jr, achieved over 440% in 4 months using real money. His record stands nearly 30 years later. He is a Hall of Fame trader, author of a dozen books and courses, famous for calling market turns before they happen, and followed by over 100,000 subscribers, plus least of all he is my Elliott mentor.[/quote]

Clearly, one just needs to find these gurus to attach to their own proven and tested methods of trading.
  • #198
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:29pm Sep 25, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting denbur
esignal collects volume from such banks as Deutche Bank, HSBC, Merryl Lynch, Bank of America, there are 6 banks that represent 60% of trading volume in the forex. Plus big brokers as FXCM, FXSol, Oanda and etc. by the way its is not eSignal who cellects data. If you still do not know, there is data feed called GTIS, it is used by major banks and brokers to trade forex. It is considered the most advanced for placing orders. esignal offers subscribtion to this data feed in there charting package. it also has Level 2 or Depth level, like US Stock market has. this allows you to see who are the buyer and seller and how much of them on each level in any pair.
I am well aware of this as I was an eSignal subscriber for over 8 years.

Good trading.
  • #199
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:32pm Sep 25, 2008 4:32pm
Quoting aybl2002
Please what is esignal? Could you please tell me about it?
Do you not have search capabilities?

Simple enough to find: www esignal com
  • #200
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:36pm Sep 25, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting bugscoe
Please provide a link from eSignal that backs what you're saying here about how they collect volume.

if you so stubborn go and google "GTIS Market Data Feed Contributors" or something along these lines.

here is short list of banks
http://www.telekurs-financial.com/da...02_attach1.pdf
0 traders viewing now