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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #441
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:23pm Sep 24, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting doji
Guys, has Wave-C ended on the EUR/USD pair?

It looks to me like it's still completing Wave 4, and is, therefore due for another wave up ?

Am I wrong?

Thanks!
Great question. We at the crossroads now.
With the past 2 week rally still in 3 waves, it could be either:

  1. A-B-C as part of intermediate w.4 of large w.C (or)
  2. 1-2-3 as part of large w.5

I got out at 1.4800 with 670pips to see what direction the market would take. I lean toward we are in a 4, looking for 5 to break higher soon/tonight? Reason, all the impulses waves up, not all zig-zags?
But I'll wait for the market to lead.

Personally, I am looking at support to hold at 1.4570 if it gets that low, or a break above 1.4750 range.

  • #442
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:29pm Sep 24, 2008 8:29pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
I will be looking right into this when I can as I find it quite similar to the electrical impulses of the human heart beat (QRS complex etc..). At least the concept anyway.

There has to be a pulse in the market, it's driven by many of them
Yes, good impulse wave remind me of a heart beat shape. Our designer shows clues that math and fractals are in all His creations.

I would love to hear what you find on heart impulses - summary or article links? Please let us know.... :nerd:
  • #443
  • Sep 24, 2008 9:09pm Sep 24, 2008 9:09pm
There are turning points at times, this is one of them for me. Another trader could say I'm long until 1.5500. My style is conservative because I trade a large capital base, my priority is preservation of capital, profits come second.

Generally, when I see 5 waves one way, then a 3 correction, I am in, and make out well. I can see that in any time frame, in most securities.

I can trade a naked chart by price action alone. Or candles, or S&R. Been there and done that. I was trading 30 years ago, kid.

I would be glad to answer your questions, and can be patient, but I deserve respect - don't be rude to me.
  • #444
  • Sep 24, 2008 9:17pm Sep 24, 2008 9:17pm
Quoting steelhead
Perfect post on why this indicator cannot be trusted. Could be a-b-c as part of itermediate wave 4? or 123 as part of wave 5? Come on this is hilarious.

Again this is why you cant trust it. Could be this or could be that. Ten different traders will give you ten different scenarios about elliot waves.
Dear Sir,

Would you please correction of the CHF chart I try learned of this wave method.. looks like good for take the short if the support break .

Please advise the point C am i right to draw base on this wave method

best regards,
my30marahaba
Attached Image
  • #445
  • Edited 1:45am Sep 25, 2008 1:27am | Edited 1:45am
Quoting NuckingFuts
Thanks FXoffshore, sure does help. My only concern with EW is exactly where to start the count.
That is a good question, it is the kernel of Elliott skills. It depends on the trader, so others may do it a different way. By all means speak up, anyone.

In summary, I look for certain distinguishing or unique patterns, in tight bar view, never candles. Sometimes line view removes noise.

  1. a vertical move is often a wave 3, sometimes w.1 starts like a rocket
  2. a contracting triangle is typical of a wave 4 or B (never a w.2)
  3. a sharp 3 wave retracement is a typical w.2
  4. a meandering retracement may be a w.4

a significant bottom or top is tricky because it is not always the extreme tick, like in the case of a truncated w.5 - so avoid starting there.

I start by looking on weekly or daily charts, then progress to smaller time frames to get it right. I look for those vertical or triangle patterns to anchor my count. then start counting 3s or 5s, applying labeling after some prep has been done.

When it comes to labeling, I don't begin there, it is the last thing I do. Also, I consider alternative counts, so I can eliminate them or prioritize them as the market moves. 'ALT' counts are risk management for me, plan B and C are on the table, but the preferred count is the one that satisfies the most rules/guidelines. The temptation is to favor a count that supports a traders presupposed bias, guard against that. Be open to all counts that are valid, but experience will teach which ones are likely. If a rule is violated, let the count go - don't ignore the solid violation.

I compare intra-market charts as well, other currencies, like Swissy is great for Eur to confirm a count. Gbp/Usd is good also. Gold and Oil have been highly correlated with EUR, and make advance moves that help.

Often I will confirm a count using a MACD like oscillator that ebbs and flows over a 0 line. Wave threes have the biggest hump, w.4 crosses the naught line, and w.5 almost always shows divergence.

Another standard is to put every trend into equal channels. After a while you get to know the personality of patterns and where they will go within the channel. As soon as 1 and 2 appear to be done, I'll put a channel on it as a guide where 3 will touch, 4 will retrace, and 5 will finish. 2 and 4 are your base line, or 0 and B in a correction. Very powerful and reliable tool.

My goal is to find and track setup wave (2, 4, B) to enter clear 3, 5, or C impulses. 3 and C are the relaible money makers, and since they are fractal, they are in different degrees/char time frames for any currency.

I favor majors, like EUR/USD, over synthetic pairs. Try to stick to one or two currencies that are not correlated or inverse.

There is much more, but that is a summary. Get Prechters book, or Neely if you are a geek. And practise. Post your charts here and ask for feedback.

It is not true that 10 traders will give 10 different EW counts, it is a myth. There can only be a few valid counts, typically 2, but up to 4+ in wave 4. Complex corrections are the hardest to count, so don't sweat those, remember that the rules for impulse wave are quite strict, and if it is not a clear impulse 5: - then by default it is a correction. If bars are going sideways or overlaping a lot, it is a correction. If you don't know what it is, it is a correction.

Like a puzzle, Focus on what you can identify, and leave the toughest for last, is good advice.

This thread can help, or Grega EW by daily email is a bargain for $39/mo, learn from a pro if you want to learn fast. I use Grega and Elliott Wave International paid subscriptions - to confirm or challenge my counts. At the highest levels, they best tend to have about the same counts. Jaime Saettle at DailyFX has a good free perspective. Some in this group are excellent.

  • #446
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:11am Sep 25, 2008 2:11am
A small 5 impulse is just completing in EUR, will look for entry long after a 3 wave correction, around 1.4695. It should keep going up, but caution NY opening for news.
  • #447
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:30am Sep 25, 2008 2:30am
Quoting FXoffshore
That is a good question, it is the kernel of Elliott skills. It depends on the trader, so others may do it a different way. By all means speak up, anyone.

In summary, I look for certain distinguishing or unique patterns, in tight bar view, never candles. Sometimes line view removes noise.

  1. a vertical move is often a wave 3, sometimes w.1 starts like a rocket
  2. a contracting triangle is typical of a wave 4 or B (never a w.2)
  3. a sharp 3 wave retracement is a typical w.2
  4. a meandering retracement may be a w.4

a significant bottom or top is tricky because it is not always the extreme tick, like in the case of a truncated w.5 - so avoid starting there.

I start by looking on weekly or daily charts, then progress to smaller time frames to get it right. I look for those vertical or triangle patterns to anchor my count. then start counting 3s or 5s, applying labeling after some prep has been done.

When it comes to labeling, I don't begin there, it is the last thing I do. Also, I consider alternative counts, so I can eliminate them or prioritize them as the market moves. 'ALT' counts are risk management for me, plan B and C are on the table, but the preferred count is the one that satisfies the most rules/guidelines. The temptation is to favor a count that supports a traders presupposed bias, guard against that. Be open to all counts that are valid, but experience will teach which ones are likely. If a rule is violated, let the count go - don't ignore the solid violation.

I compare intra-market charts as well, other currencies, like Swissy is great for Eur to confirm a count. Gbp/Usd is good also. Gold and Oil have been highly correlated with EUR, and make advance moves that help.

Often I will confirm a count using a MACD like oscillator that ebbs and flows over a 0 line. Wave threes have the biggest hump, w.4 crosses the naught line, and w.5 almost always shows divergence.

Another standard is to put every trend into equal channels. After a while you get to know the personality of patterns and where they will go within the channel. As soon as 1 and 2 appear to be done, I'll put a channel on it as a guide where 3 will touch, 4 will retrace, and 5 will finish. 2 and 4 are your base line, or 0 and B in a correction. Very powerful and reliable tool.

My goal is to find and track setup wave (2, 4, B) to enter clear 3, 5, or C impulses. 3 and C are the relaible money makers, and since they are fractal, they are in different degrees/char time frames for any currency.

I favor majors, like EUR/USD, over synthetic pairs. Try to stick to one or two currencies that are not correlated or inverse.

There is much more, but that is a summary. Get Prechters book, or Neely if you are a geek. And practise. Post your charts here and ask for feedback.

It is not true that 10 traders will give 10 different EW counts, it is a myth. There can only be a few valid counts, typically 2, but up to 4+ in wave 4. Complex corrections are the hardest to count, so don't sweat those, remember that the rules for impulse wave are quite strict, and if it is not a clear impulse 5: - then by default it is a correction. If bars are going sideways or overlaping a lot, it is a correction. If you don't know what it is, it is a correction.

Like a puzzle, Focus on what you can identify, and leave the toughest for last, is good advice.

This thread can help, or Grega EW by daily email is a bargain for $39/mo, learn from a pro if you want to learn fast. I use Grega and Elliott Wave International paid subscriptions - to confirm or challenge my counts. At the highest levels, they best tend to have about the same counts. Jaime Saettle at DailyFX has a good free perspective. Some in this group are excellent.

Your are the man!!

Thanks a lot FXoffshore for sharing your knowledge with us.

It helps me in many ways.

Attached 1-5wave EurUsd chart which you mention above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #448
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:47am Sep 25, 2008 2:47am
My AudUsd chart.

wave B is 62% of wave A, so i guess it ended at 0.8426.

I gonna short it for wave C.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aus.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #449
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:50am Sep 25, 2008 2:50am
Quoting 5ysfx
have no idea better ask buthead or steelbut...

...but i have chart
should be easy this time

Totally agree with you. My chart is exactly same as yours..
  • #450
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:24am Sep 25, 2008 5:24am
Thank you for your help in scheduling a way to analize the Elliot Wave, I think will be usefull for all us By myself I was looking for that eurusd retracement at 5 minutes, and you confirmed my opinion. I follow regularly Grega (the free charts on theLFB) and sometimes daily.fx.
See you all and good trades!

Quoting FXoffshore
A small 5 impulse is just completing in EUR, will look for entry long after a 3 wave correction, around 1.4695. It should keep going up, but caution NY opening for news.
  • #451
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:30am Sep 25, 2008 6:30am
Does anyone else see this as the possible start of wave 2 of 5 on the Eur/Usd. Looks like a double zig-zag, completing at the 78.6.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #452
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:53am Sep 25, 2008 6:53am
agree. wave 2 rarely exceeds 78.6 do not see 5 waves in c wave unless alternation of wave 2 is complex and wave four simple My 2 cents
  • #453
  • Sep 25, 2008 8:33am Sep 25, 2008 8:33am
Does anyone else share this perspective? I am pretty new to this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #454
  • Edited 11:29am Sep 25, 2008 11:14am | Edited 11:29am
Quoting pipeye
Does anyone else share this perspective? I am pretty new to this.
Think we can count three completing in Euro now. Entry long is near.
However, I would wait for a hold near 1.4630 and the turn up, because 2 is very deep.
Risk is at 1.4602, if it goes that far, the count is wrong, and step aside.
  • #455
  • Sep 25, 2008 11:56am Sep 25, 2008 11:56am
gold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold ew.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #456
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:02pm Sep 25, 2008 2:02pm
Just my view at the moment ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #457
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:52pm Sep 25, 2008 4:52pm
Quoting kevmcfoster
gold
Good chart, thanks. I agree that the degree of Gold correction goes back to 1999, so it is large, not intermediate. The large w.B is likely where are at now, with a new low in w.C months down the road. $600 is my target for an entry, to go long, and add some coins. I am constantly amazed how news events do not change the large Elliot counts, they just add fuel to the trend. It makes me wonder how this credit crises and bank fiasco will hold it together to complete the trends, before a meltdown happens?

Do you look at oil also? I would like to exchange ideas about oils pattern. Will we see another low below $90 this fall?
  • #458
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:06pm Sep 25, 2008 5:06pm
chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 40 KB
  • #459
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:28pm Sep 25, 2008 5:28pm
Pipeye, I think you're reading too much into it, would you really want to trade the (iii) to (iv) fo instance? probably not anyway, but I notice you're trading the 15 min chart, I stopped using 15 mins and 30 mins a while ago, but I do use the 5 min chart for entries, sometimes trade off of it, and use the 1 hour for planning.

My suggestion would be to do the same kind of view with a 1 Hour chart and take [4] as a 1 , you're (v)/1 as a 2, and then expect wave 3 to end lower than [4].

In all my EW readings I have never come accros 15 and 30 minb charts, 5min seems to work!
  • #460
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:35pm Sep 25, 2008 6:35pm
my view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 49 KB
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