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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #117,041
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:03pm Sep 24, 2008 3:03pm
Quoting JazzmanQ2
How can there be a bailout of these companies if they are being investigated by the FBI?
government will post bail for them..
  • #117,042
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:05pm Sep 24, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting rgitt05
THE STRATEGY

Study more, do not rush, do not get greedy, patient, patient…
The successful in FOREX is not how many trades you gain per-day,
neither how much pips you gain per trade, but minimum or NOT
losing any trade.
You only need gain 10 pips per day, consistently with minimum or
almost NO lost to make 150-200 K/ year.
You can do it if and only if you make 10 pips / day NO LOST.




The PLAN math:

You open an account for $1000.
You make 1 trade a day (2 in most but just say only one for sure),
and 2 mini lot, make $20/day x 5 day = $100./week/ $400/month.
Do this for 2 months—January & February
March 2008-acct. = 1,800, you trade 4 mini lots, make $800.
April 2008-acct. = 2400, trade 6 mini lots make 1200
May 2008-acct. = 3600, trade 8 mini lots make 1600
June 2008-acct. = 5200, trade 10 mini lots, make 2000
July 2008-acct. = 7200, trade 15 mini lots, make 3000
August 2008-acct. = 10,200 switch to standard account,
trade 2 STD LOTS; make 1000/week, 4K per month.

September 2008-acct. = 14,200 trade 3 STD LOT, make 6K
October 2008-acct. =20.2K trade 4 STD LOT, make 8K
November 2008-acct. = 28.2K trade 6 STD lot make 12K
December 2008-acct. = 40.2K trade 8 lot make 16 K.
Total for year, app. 56K.
After 1 year, from 1K , you make 16 K / month, 192K per year
( and so on if you want, and after 1 year experience, then you can
make 2 trades per day)
All of that is ONLY 10 PIPS/ TRADE/ DAY IF and ONLY IF you gain
100% ( or almost) 10 PIPS.

(I think most of us could live on this type of income--don't get
greedy)

Rgitt05, this was an excellent post, , however part of the difficulty of executing this plan lies in the fact that its very difficult to exercise reasonable MM with scalping. For example, one would be hard pressed to have a stop of less than say 15-20 pips (excluding spread) with gbp/yen, the spread for most brokers is between 7-9 pips , so the most reasonable stop would be say 25-30 pips.

Now if we are targeting 10 pips at minimum, one wrong trade would require 3 trades to breakeven, therein lies the rub. IMHO, and I stand to be corrected, it will be almost impossible for a trader to exercise reasonable MM scalping GBP/YEN , unless having a TP target of at least 20 pips.

It is for this very reason, as a matter of fact, a few months ago, scalpers would have been chased off this thread as a disaster waiting to happen. However , now that there is so much volatility and several hours of ranging with gbp/yen there is more appreciation of scalping as a trading style.
  • #117,043
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:06pm Sep 24, 2008 3:06pm
Truth be told, Momentum, QQE and GANN crosses, which are the core indicators used in this thread, are way to lagging for scalping purposes. For scalping it is critically important to be able to:
1. Understand basic candlestick patterns , like pin bars.
2. Draw channels
3 Have a tool for identifying divergencies.

One way to draw a channel is to zoom a naked chart out till it is extremely small, this will give you an overall picture, you won't be able to draw a channel if your candlesticks are as big as barn doors.

If price is ranging it will be easy to establish and draw support/resistance trendlines. You can however use the channel tool below to give you an idea, but I still prefer manual inspection.

The rsi is invaluable for identifying divergencies. This is particularly good, where a clear divergence is seen as price approaches your channel trendline.

The MACD also is very useful for identifying divergencies. I have included the most recent MACD divergency alert indicator as sometimes the MACD will pick up divergencies the RSI doesn't.

The chart below shows a 5 minute channel for gbp/usd, note the behavior of price when rsi is around the 30 level or 70 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 33 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FX5_Divergence_V2.1.mq4   11 KB | 341 downloads
File Type: mq4 channel_SHI_Channel_true.mq4   7 KB | 356 downloads
  • #117,044
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:10pm Sep 24, 2008 3:10pm
Thanks Godfrey
  • #117,045
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:24pm Sep 24, 2008 3:24pm
Republican presidential nominee John McCain challenged rival Barack Obama on Wednesday to suspend their heated campaign, postpone Friday's debate and work together to deal with the nation's financial troubles.
"It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the administration's proposal," McCain said. "I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_el_pr/mccain
The Only Constant Is Change!
  • #117,046
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:28pm Sep 24, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting GodfreyH
Rgitt05, this was an excellent post, , however part of the difficulty of executing this plan lies in the fact that its very difficult to exercise reasonable MM with scalping. For example, one would be hard pressed to have a stop of less than say 15-20 pips (excluding spread) with gbp/yen, the spread for most brokers is between 7-9 pips , so the most reasonable stop would be say 25-30 pips.

Now if we are targeting 10 pips at minimum, one wrong trade would require 3 trades to breakeven, therein lies the rub. IMHO, and I stand to be corrected, it will be almost impossible for a trader to exercise reasonable MM scalping GBP/YEN , unless having a TP target of at least 20 pips.

It is for this very reason, as a matter of fact, a few months ago, scalpers would have been chased off this thread as a disaster waiting to happen. However , now that there is so much volatility and several hours of ranging with gbp/yen there is more appreciation of scalping as a trading style.

I wonder if you take aus's technique and apply it to a 3 min chart how it works. ..... if it work on higher time frames it should work on lower ones.

Here is a classic case of bullish div rsi off a double bototm 5 min gbpjpy ... . If you waited till the break of the T30 ( blue ) line at 195.90 , it would have givien you a very nice safe entry for 50 pip trade

The upper T30 line at 196.50 has been forming resistance all day ... and the range to play is approx 196 to 196.50 , the 6 pips spread sucks though

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 21 KB
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  • #117,047
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:42pm Sep 24, 2008 3:42pm
Quoting JazzmanQ2
Republican presidential nominee John McCain challenged rival Barack Obama on Wednesday to suspend their heated campaign, postpone Friday's debate and work together to deal with the nation's financial troubles.
"It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the administration's proposal," McCain said. "I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_el_pr/mccain
Imo .. the more we are running out of time, the more likely the plan is gonna pass .. :-)
It's normal to have all kinds of doubt, questions from congress and average citizens. I think the more important question is, what kind of risk if the plan doesn't pass?
  • #117,048
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:47pm Sep 24, 2008 3:47pm
Quoting TraderStar
Thanks Godfrey
No prob,

-------------
Quoting malcolmb14
I wonder if you take aus's technique and apply it to a 3 min chart how it works. ..... if it work on higher time frames it should work on lower ones.

Here is a classic case of bullish div rsi off a double bototm 5 min gbpjpy ... . If you waited till the break of the T30 ( blue ) line at 195.90 , it would have givien you a very nice safe entry for 50 pip trade

The upper T30 line at 196.50 has been forming resistance all day ... and the range to play is approx 196 to 196.50 , the 6 pips spread sucks though

Attachment
For some reason, I don't know why, I find Aus's techniques unreliable below 30 min on gbp/yen and on other pairs like Euro and Cable, 1 hr is best. I tweaked and prodded for a couple of months before coming to that conclusion. In fact, that was part of my desire to learn other trading techniques.
  • #117,049
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:49pm Sep 24, 2008 3:49pm
a few things i want to comment.
first, RSI is not that good at identifying divergences. because this particular indicator follows the price very good and this is the reason why trend lines work so good on RSI. however, there are times during a strong trend when you see a lot of divergences on RSI - because after all it's an oscillator.
second, i think MACD is the most useful when you talk about divergences. CCI and stochastic are also doing a very good job. but it all depends on the settings and personal interpretation.
i think i have indicators for stochastic and CCI divergences... i'll look them up when i get home from work. if i remember . and of course, if anyone would be interested.

Quoting GodfreyH
...

The rsi is invaluable for identifying divergencies. This is particularly good, where a clear divergence is seen as price approaches your channel trendline.

The MACD also is very useful for identifying divergencies. I have included the most recent MACD divergency alert indicator as sometimes the MACD will pick up divergencies the RSI doesn't.

...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #117,050
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:17pm Sep 24, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting Scrat
a few things i want to comment.
first, RSI is not that good at identifying divergences. because this particular indicator follows the price very good and this is the reason why trend lines work so good on RSI. however, there are times during a strong trend when you see a lot of divergences on RSI - because after all it's an oscillator.
second, i think MACD is the most useful when you talk about divergences. CCI and stochastic are also doing a very good job. but it all depends on the settings and personal interpretation.
i think i have indicators for stochastic and CCI divergences... i'll look them up when i get home from work. if i remember . and of course, if anyone would be interested.
mmm....I could argue this one till the cows come home... point in case .. 5 min chart ... very clear bullish divergence on the double bottom this morning for 100 pip move up in choppy conditions . MACD 12/26 setting did NOT pick this divervegnce up at all , but stochastics did ....10/3/3/ setting


could also point out bearish div on 15 min charts overnight when everyone was calling breakout .. Traderstar traded it. It worked out ok for 150 pip drop.

A good trader will develop a keen sense for the indicator of their choice . I have seen many use macd and stochastics and cci . I am not keen on any of these indicators , this does not mean that they do not work , it just means that they do not suit my style of trading and that for another trader they will work. Lilmoe does awesome with the CCI , yet I tried it way back at the beginning of my trading career and just seemed to have little success with it



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 21 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 20 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #117,051
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:24pm Sep 24, 2008 4:24pm
All,

I have to agree that it's obvious that Bush will not be on air tonight to announce the crisis is solved. I made a mistake. Getting out at BE and sitting on my hands once again....

B
  • #117,052
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:25pm Sep 24, 2008 4:25pm
Are all indicators in agreement now, are they poising to shoot up to 197 area again (?)..
  • #117,053
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:28pm Sep 24, 2008 4:28pm
Quoting bigcoupe
All,

I have to agree that it's obvious that Bush will not be on air tonight to announce the crisis is solved. I made a mistake. Getting out at BE and sitting on my hands once again....

B
The crisis is solved? come on .. it's a long time progress. He certainly will not address that. I think Bush will pledge to nation that this bail out plan is crucial and no other better solution ..
  • #117,054
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:29pm Sep 24, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting mktjong
Are all indicators in agreement now, are they poising to shoot up to 197 area again (?)..
Dont know for sure, I have QQE pointing down in 4H.

Also, EU about to tank
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #117,055
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:35pm Sep 24, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting mktjong
The crisis is solved? come on .. it's a long time progress. He certainly will not address that. I think Bush will pledge to nation that this bail out plan is crucial and no other better solution ..
I should be specific and saying I was expecting him to report that congress had OK'd a bill to pass. Obviously this isnt going to happen based on what I am watching on TV.

I realize the crisis is not over and this is simply a short term band-aid.

B
  • #117,056
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:43pm Sep 24, 2008 4:43pm
Excellent observation Godfrey!!

This strategy was originally for the major pairs...I realized that the cross pairs will require a bigger target due to the volatility and spread..

I figured if someone comes up with an average pips as a target it would workout very well..I posted earlier an article about the price movement on the major pairs but there is no studies on the cross pairs.

Based on the higher TF from the article, I observed a greater chance to execute more pips..I decided to test this strategy on higher TF with GJ and I managed to average 30-50 pips depending on the TF with greater success..

I figured if I can average 30 -50 pips per trade and do it average 3 times a day...It will in the long run compound very fast to a six figure income in less time depending on the initial balance...


I work for a private hedge fund company, and I trade the GJ during the London time.. I prefer this time because the violatity is good, and I can on average get my average 30 to 50 pips ...I am only required to make minimal 30 to 50 pips..I trade with a large sizes of lots so 30 to 50 pips is a lot...

Thanks for your feedback..

I will attached the article again for those who missed it..

I believe if you target 30 to 50 pips per trade depending on TF, you have a greater chance to protect your earnings..

The name of the game is not how many pips you make but how many you keep!!

Don't over trade..If there is no setup, don't force the trade..Be like a sniper who wait for the kill..There are many opportunites to make money...Try trading different pairs to avoid overtrading ..



Also, it's always better to trade when two market are open...

Here is a link to download( More violatity, more volume)

www.forexmarkethours.com



Quoting GodfreyH
Rgitt05, this was an excellent post, , however part of the difficulty of executing this plan lies in the fact that its very difficult to exercise reasonable MM with scalping. For example, one would be hard pressed to have a stop of less than say 15-20 pips (excluding spread) with gbp/yen, the spread for most brokers is between 7-9 pips , so the most reasonable stop would be say 25-30 pips.

Now if we are targeting 10 pips at minimum, one wrong trade would require 3 trades to breakeven, therein lies the rub. IMHO, and I stand to be corrected, it will be almost impossible for a trader to exercise reasonable MM scalping GBP/YEN , unless having a TP target of at least 20 pips.

It is for this very reason, as a matter of fact, a few months ago, scalpers would have been chased off this thread as a disaster waiting to happen. However , now that there is so much volatility and several hours of ranging with gbp/yen there is more appreciation of scalping as a trading style.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Forex Report - Predicting Price movement.pdf   642 KB | 546 downloads
[
  • #117,057
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:44pm Sep 24, 2008 4:44pm
Quoting Scrat
i think MACD is the most useful when you talk about divergences. .

Yes if u are looking for a fast divergence per bar macd is the animal
take a setting 1 10 3 or 2 10 3 and u can see each bar from 1m to yearly to see just how out of wack the price action is. second when u see a real big spike of a bar that registers in macd, 2 things can happen 1. it must correct that divergance asap-next bar or if continuation will lag it out with time 2-3 bars to balance then it can continue

everything is in relationship with the last bar in the cycle of motion
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #117,058
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:53pm Sep 24, 2008 4:53pm
This pair has been very bid all day long .. every time it touches 195 handle .. sshhoottt .. up to 196 again .. and again .. what is this telling us ..
  • #117,059
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:55pm Sep 24, 2008 4:55pm
alright godfrey nice post - just to get your opinion please ive taken a short trade on pound dollar yesterday and im thinking about holding it for the MT
any chance i can have your thoughts on the short term as well many thanks
  • #117,060
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:56pm Sep 24, 2008 4:56pm


http://www.forexmarkethours.com/fore...itor_v2.11.exe

If you can average 30 pips per pair you can make more pips than one pair..

Do the math!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tradetimes.jpg Size: 43 KB
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