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Promising system?

  • #21
  • Sep 22, 2008 12:54pm Sep 22, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting WarrBenj
Jova I sent you a PM with an example few trades
Thanks I shall follow it a few days.
One of these systems look as a martingale system, is it?
  • #22
  • Sep 22, 2008 4:09pm Sep 22, 2008 4:09pm
NO NO !!!
No martingale systems on my accounts sir.

It is special MM model. If you check you will see it is not martingale. reduce size when account have bad trades.

Quoting Jova
Thanks I shall follow it a few days.
One of these systems look as a martingale system, is it?
  • #23
  • Sep 23, 2008 1:39am Sep 23, 2008 1:39am
Just to be clear the MM is like the idea in post #5 in http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=102507

NO martingale. Martingale do not work.....
  • #24
  • Sep 23, 2008 2:14am Sep 23, 2008 2:14am
don't look at how much money this system makes, but how many pips. that is what counts !
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #25
  • Sep 23, 2008 2:19am Sep 23, 2008 2:19am
Quoting BBPI_fxtrader
don't look at how much money this system makes, but how many pips. that is what counts !

I check your blog and one small question why do you trade in 2009 ?
We are still in 2008.....

Can you explain why ?

" 23 September 2009
Today I closed the open trades from 19 September"
  • #26
  • Sep 23, 2008 2:24am Sep 23, 2008 2:24am
Quoting WarrBenj
I check your blog and one small question why do you trade in 2009 ?
We are still in 2008.....

Can you explain why ?

" 23 September 2009
Today I closed the open trades from 19 September"
My mistake =))
just woke, haven't had my coffee
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #27
  • Sep 23, 2008 2:39am Sep 23, 2008 2:39am
Startingdate: 4 september 2008
Startingamount: 10.000$
Balance at this moment: 20 102$

Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo
  • #28
  • Sep 23, 2008 10:37am Sep 23, 2008 10:37am
Quoting WarrBenj
NO NO !!!
No martingale systems on my accounts sir.

It is special MM model. If you check you will see it is not martingale. reduce size when account have bad trades.
Is it possible to get an investor password? (Only read)
  • #29
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:29am Sep 24, 2008 2:29am
Startingdate: 4 september 2008
Startingamount: 10.000$
Balance at this moment: 20 369$

Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo
  • #30
  • Edited 3:14am Sep 24, 2008 2:48am | Edited 3:14am
Quoting Jova
Is it possible to get an investor password? (Only read)
As this is a real live account I not so hot to give away the pwd

FYI
"I only change the name in the header so you do not get info about the owner - Me - "
  • #31
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:37am Sep 24, 2008 8:37am
Quoting WarrBenj
As this is a real live account I not so hot to give away the pwd
I'm not asking for the trading password, but fr the investor password (only read), I can't interfear your trading but can follow how the system works.
  • #32
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:35pm Sep 24, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting Jova
I'm not asking for the trading password, but fr the investor password (only read), I can't interfear your trading but can follow how the system works.
Why is not the web page enough ?
  • #33
  • Edited 5:51pm Sep 24, 2008 2:03pm | Edited 5:51pm
Just to add my 2c worth to the discussion on MM that was starting to develop here...........

Unless you are weighting position size according to statistically proven probability of each trade setup, varying your position sizes will have no long term effect. If you're lucky, your wins will coincide with your bigger positions. If you're unlucky, you'll find one bigger loss wiping out the profits made by multiple smaller winners. The Martingale is a special case in point.

If you scale into or out of trades, each component position needs to be, on balance, profitable in its own right. Hence scaling in/out in itself can not improve your chances of long term success.

The key to long term success is expectancy. To achieve positive expectancy you must time your entries and exits effectively enough, on balance, to overcome costs. (It's not necesarily as easy as it seems). See here for more detailed info. There is no MM-based shortcut to success. In this thread (see posts #4, #31, #32, #43), I attached a number of XLSs that demonstrate how/why MM, in itself, is effectively irrelevant.

The function of position size (and stoplosses) is to protect your capital, and thus keep you in the game. Hence, everything else being equal, position size should be consistent and conservative (e.g. risk no more than 2% of your capital per trade).

-- A positive expectancy method can still lose, if you size your positions too high, allowing a 'freak' losing sequence to devastate your account. The probability of suffering N consecutive losses, given a system win rate, is shown in the table at the end of this post (#56).

-- A negative expectancy method is guaranteed to lose in the long term. But the smaller you size your positions, the more slowly you will bleed to death.

Hence you need both positive expectancy and conservative position sizes, in order to succeed.

Putting all of the above in the context of the original "Promising system?" question, the key is to put expectancy to the test. In other words, test the system using consistent position size (e.g. 1 mini-lot per trade), and over a large number of trades (preferably at least 5,000, but 1,000 should give some kind of idea), to count how many 'raw pips' are being made or lost. A very high number of trades is needed to establish statistical validity (see table here).

David
  • #34
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:13am Sep 25, 2008 2:13am
Thanks david for your 2 cent.
It's allot of literature, but I shall try to read everything.
  • #35
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:41am Sep 25, 2008 2:41am
Startingdate: 4 september 2008
Startingamount: 10.000$
Balance at this moment: 20 699$

Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo
  • #36
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:37am Sep 25, 2008 6:37am
Quoting WarrBenj
Why is not the web page enough ?
Iprefer to run my own reports for analysation.
  • #37
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:37pm Sep 25, 2008 3:37pm
Quoting Jova
Startingdate: 4 september 2008
Startingamount: 10.000$
Balance at this moment: 20 102$

Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo

Hi Dear Jova

the Result amazing.. i will keep visiting this nice thread to see what this magic system done..

thanks for Sharing
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #38
  • Sep 26, 2008 3:58am Sep 26, 2008 3:58am
Startingdate: 4 september 2008
Startingamount: 10.000$
Balance at this moment: 21 051$

Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo
  • #39
  • Sep 26, 2008 9:40am Sep 26, 2008 9:40am
Hi David,

It took me a while to come through all the posts you mentioned.
It's all verry interesting, however I guess I didn't studied enough to understand this all.
But some things certainly make sense.

I fully agree that it takes manny trades to follow in order to evaluate a system or a moneymanager.
Till now are almost 1500 trades done( see attachement).
But I guess I will wait until 5000 trades are done, to be sure of my investment.

Thanks for your input it certainly was more worth then 2 cents.

Quoting hanover
Just to add my 2c worth to the discussion on MM that was starting to develop here...........

Unless you are weighting position size according to statistically proven probability of each trade setup, varying your position sizes will have no long term effect. If you're lucky, your wins will coincide with your bigger positions. If you're unlucky, you'll find one bigger loss wiping out the profits made by multiple smaller winners. The Martingale is a special case in point.

If you scale into or out of trades, each component position needs to be, on balance, profitable in its own right. Hence scaling in/out in itself can not improve your chances of long term success.

The key to long term success is expectancy. To achieve positive expectancy you must time your entries and exits effectively enough, on balance, to overcome costs. (It's not necesarily as easy as it seems). See here for more detailed info. There is no MM-based shortcut to success. In this thread (see posts #4, #31, #32, #43), I attached a number of XLSs that demonstrate how/why MM, in itself, is effectively irrelevant.

The function of position size (and stoplosses) is to protect your capital, and thus keep you in the game. Hence, everything else being equal, position size should be consistent and conservative (e.g. risk no more than 2% of your capital per trade).

-- A positive expectancy method can still lose, if you size your positions too high, allowing a 'freak' losing sequence to devastate your account. The probability of suffering N consecutive losses, given a system win rate, is shown in the table at the end of this post (#56).

-- A negative expectancy method is guaranteed to lose in the long term. But the smaller you size your positions, the more slowly you will bleed to death.

Hence you need both positive expectancy and conservative position sizes, in order to succeed.

Putting all of the above in the context of the original "Promising system?" question, the key is to put expectancy to the test. In other words, test the system using consistent position size (e.g. 1 mini-lot per trade), and over a large number of trades (preferably at least 5,000, but 1,000 should give some kind of idea), to count how many 'raw pips' are being made or lost. A very high number of trades is needed to establish statistical validity (see table here).

David
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Summary 26-09.doc   196 KB | 699 downloads
File Type: zip DetailedStatement.zip   41 KB | 628 downloads
  • #40
  • Sep 27, 2008 4:01am Sep 27, 2008 4:01am
Quoting Jova
Hi,

I recently came in contact with a money manager. He uses a trading system that’s based on neural network analysation. The results look very promising, however, I have not enough experience in forex trading to make a clear judgement.. I would like to ask you guys (who are more familiar with it) to comment on this. At the moment I'm following the demo. I will post daily the results the money manager makes.
Let me hear your thoughts on this one.


These are the coordinates of a demo account that uses this system.

Startingdate: 4 september 2008
Startingamount: 10.000$
Balance at this moment: 16.099$

Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo
Hi dear Jova

In which broker can display Trades
you give us this

Login: 810096
Read only password: neural22
Server: MIG-Demo

but in which broker?? ODL ?? FXCM ?? ... ??

blease let me know
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
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