Another Great depression?

Most economists believe that current financial crisis is the worst since great depression of 1930s. So the big question is, are we heading towards another great depression?

IMO the current credit crisis will certainly result in a long and painful economic slowdown/recession, and we would be lucky if we dodge the depression. It would be a very narrow escape if that happens. The $700b bailout might just be the saving factor, but we'll wait and see.

As for the problems, I think the bubble was not just the subprime mortgages, but the real bubble were the banks/institutions and their "creative" banking practices. All that will be corrected nicely with the current crisis. I won't be surprised even if JP Morgan goes down under as well, only to be rescued by fed or some foreign bank. In the end only the most solid banks will remain who follow healthy and conservative banking practices.

On a positive note, the fundamentals of the world economy are strong. The industry is booming, so is the world agricultural production, and emerging economies are providing stability to the world economy. And a lot of people will learn many usefull lessons from the current crisis.

Those currently being hurt by the current crisis were either directly or indirectly involved in it's creation or willing participants. The integrity of the investment banking system was/is faulty and the lack of ethics by those who participated were the catalyst that caused the black hole we are just beginning to see. My local mom-n-pop savings bank is growing by leaps and bounds and I suspect there are more like them that we don't hear about mainly because bad news sells.

IMO Bernake, Paulson and the Bush gang are acting like a bunch of drama queens because they see that their days are numbered and sense that a new cycle of economic activity and regulation will result in their loss of power. This is a good thing and will serve as a reminder of the need for a system built with integrity and ruled by ethical persons. The changes will be dramatic for some but not so bad for those who remain flexible and open to new ways of conducting financial exchanges.

The Feds should just loan the 700 billion dollar to people and small businesses that needs it, instead of giving it to crooks .... As a matter, I could use some of that $$$ so that I don't have to trade forex ....

I think it's much worse that we're being told.
There is the potential of massive bank failures. The FDIC is not on a position to honor its guarantees of insuring deposits.
It isn't politically correct to talk about the real seed cause of this panic.
Do a search for the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA).
It's interesting.

I say DO NOT BAIL THEM OUT! If companies need to die, let them die. Others will rise in their place, better ones.

I say if congress wants to help then do it the right way. Cut capital gains taxes, cut the corporate income tax rate, and cut income taxes.

REDUCE SPENDING!

Congress should lift the offshore drilling ban. There's oil off the coast of Florida, California, and Virginia, and in ANWR. We've got more oil shale in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming than Saudi Arabia has in reserves. Most of it is on federal lands, lets go get it.

We have more coal than anybody in the world. We can turn coal into gasoline and we can build clean burning coal fired power plants. For that matter lets build nuclear power plants too; zero emissions.

The government pushed lenders into making loans to people who didn't qualify. That's where the bad paper came from. Just like the government is the one driving up energy prices by not allowing us to use our own resources.

The root cause is too much government. People talk about this problem like it's the free market gone wild. Baloney! The government regulated us right into the problems we are having.

That will be the ideal scenario I think, but given the current sentiment we have in government sector, it is very unlikely to happen at this time.

Good post......I seen that in the military for 20 years!!!!

Sad...but true!!!

HOLLA

Were not even in a recession...

Anyways we need to shut up stupid unions anyways, they keep trying to push protectionist policies on America. No wonder they got fired, their too stupid to know history.

The 700B rescue effort will be the death of the USD

That's the plan. We'll see if it works.

*Salute*

Ya it's a fantasy at this point, but national thinking on these types of issues change slowly over time so there's hope for the long run.

Only another US$39 Trillion to go.

This guy pulls no punches. He's pissed off and letting everyone know about it!

The Bailout Wont Work and the System Will Implode

By Bob Chapman
The International Forecaster

The Paulson Plan means you are going to eat it all, Paulson wants to keep the corrupt greed machine going, A Wall Street Bailout plan means you will pay for their mistakes, Administration trying to scare everyone into accepting bailout plan, Buyouts now like zombie marriages, derivative Death-Star on its way,

The name of the episode, appropriately enough, is "The Paulson Plan." The capsule for the episode reads as follows: Hanky Panky and Buck-Busting Ben decide to renovate the Goldilocks Matrix, giving it a major overhaul, and attempt to redefine the word: "fantasy." Indeed, The Paulson Plan, so-called, may be the most vivid product of a fertile imagination since "Alice in Wonderland" and "The Wizard of Oz," which quite frankly are more believable than the reasons given for the implementation of the "The Paulson Plan."

Oh, we must help the poor sheople by easing the credit-crunch so they can get more loans and get deeper into hock (like more loans is what they somehow need), and so their savings accounts and pensions plans can be saved as we hyperinflate the dollar. Oh, we are sooooo concerned about the welfare of the poor, helpless sheople! We have to save them from destroying themselves, because only we, the masters of the universe, know what is best for them. (Judy, get the barf-bag - quick!) You just don't understand. The corrupt, graft-laden, insider-trading-saturated, fraud-based, Ponzi-scheming system that we have used to rip you off and steal you blind for over a century must obviously be saved so we can keep screwing you ad infinitum. After all, isn't that what sheople are for, to be fleeced and sheered, fattened and slaughtered? You know your place. You are all bleating, ignorant sheople, so come lick our boots - and give us the damned money!!! Oh, there, there, now. We're sorry to take such an imperious tone with you. There, there, just give in to our demands like good little sheople and, in time, everything will turn out juuuuust fine --- NOT!

We know we have taxed you to death via the IRS and inflation of the money supply, we know we have manipulated all the markets and engaged in rampant insider-trading and loan fraud, thus stealing trillions of dollars of your hard-earned cash from you, we know we created Ponzi-scheme bubbles in dot.com stocks and real estate, we know we gave mortgages to people who could not afford homes in the first place, we know that we falsely rated stocks, bonds and derivatives and "cooked our books" to get you and our international friends to pay top dollar for crap, we know we lied to you about every economic statistic on the face of the planet, but, hey, we're all in this together now, and you have no alternative other than to accept our bailout plan (oh, let's call it a "rescue plan" instead) so thatyou can pay for all the economic carnage resulting from our debauchery.

And don't worry about any oversight when it comes to disbursing the piddling $700 billion, because it should be obvious, based on all the foregoing, that we can be trusted to handle the mere 700 billion as if it were -well - our own, which it will be if you approve the plan! Oh, but perhaps we should not mention that - you might construe that as some kind of silly old moral hazard, hahaha. And never mind that we told you we don't know if the plan will work, because we know it won't, but we didn't want to upset you any more than you already are. And have no concern that the 1.4 quadrillion dollar, roiling, boiling derivatives volcano is going to wipe out the entire world banking system with molten credit default swaps and interest rate swaps in a blaze of pyroclastic glory over the next several years, because, hey - we're working on it! And never mind that the problem is unsolvable. This is the United Goldilocks Matrix, where everything turns out juuuuust right!

Note first, how the Paulson Plan, which we will hereinafter refer to as PP (which is also a good acronym for Preposterous Poppycock), is a perfect example of Illuminist extortion aimed at stuffing a very rotten apple down the collective throats of our elitist marionettes in Congress, who, for the first-time in what must be over half a century, displayed some backbone in their denial of the initial proposal for the PP, albeit that their nixing of the PP was most likely motivated by political opportunism more so than by any true patriotism.

First, we saw Bear Stearns assassinated this March as an appetizer. The extortion got started with a bang on September 7, when Fannie and Freddie were nationalized, and then we were "shocked and awed" with a series of colossal commercial bank and investment bank failures, starting with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 10, at which time Merrill Lynch also went under and was purchased by Bank of America. Then AIG goes down on the 16th. Out comes the PP on the 20th. Then, to keep up the pressure, Washington Mutual implodes on the 25th and is acquired by JP Morgan Chase, followed by the vaporization of Wachovia on the 29th, which is acquired by Citigroup in the hours before the first vote on the PP is commenced. Now mind you that these banks have been insolvent from the outset of the credit-crunch in August of 2007, as we have reported to you over the past year. And here we are, with Congress about to recess to campaign for reelection just before the vote in November, and suddenly the whole system, which until now has been kept in a state of suspended animation, comes down to scare everyone into accepting the PP. How blatant and churlish can you get?

Along the way, we also saw Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley give up their investment bank charters for commercial bank charters while getting bailed out with equity injections from various Illuminist companies. Then banks and other financial institutions in Europe suddenly crumble, after unofficial weekend rumblings, with official announcements of bailouts/nationalizations made, right on cue, on Monday to bolster the PP, including Fortis (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxemborg), Hypo Real Estate (Germany), Bradford and Bingley (UK), Glitner Bank (Iceland) and Unicredito (Italy).

Here is a little time line summarizing the action that occurred as a lead-up to the vote on the PP:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...eet.useconomy3

Nevertheless, the PP gets nixed by the US House of Representatives in a "shocker," and suddenly the Dow plunges 777 points as punishment for our Congress having the audacity to deny the Illuminati because they were getting inundated with calls from constituents who were against the PP, sometimes by as much as 300 to 1. The message: give us the $700 billion or we will give you trillions worth of grief just prior to elections. As a side note, while we are not into numerology, when you get a 777-point punishment for nixing a $700 billion bailout plan, may we suggest there is some sort of message there. Also, as a side note, we had to laugh when Citigroup bought out Wachovia. It was like a zombie marriage made in heaven. The walking dead marrying another member of the walking dead. It's like mixing C-4 with TNT. What a conflagration that combination is going to suffer! We suppose, for now, that we technically have the Fed now leading the Big Five instead of the Big Four (the Big Five being JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and now Citigroup). We'll see how long that lasts. We expect to get back to the Big Four in the not-too-distant future. The Big Four will get vaporized later, as will the Fed, with everything being nationalized, as planned by the Illuminati all along.

Now we are hearing the moron, Illuminist bankers in Europe drone on about how doltish the Americans are for rejecting such an excellent plan. Then there is the Caligula Administration, whining that we don't like the plan any more than you do, but it must be passed or everyone will suffer great pain (as if that can somehow be avoided and as if they aren't drooling over the profits to be made when the money is doled out). Now, the Senate leaders are getting in on the act, blaming the House for defeating such a wonderful plan and causing trillions in losses in the stock markets (even though it was really just the PPT withdrawing its support and strengthening the yen, thereby allowing the financial markets to fall under the weight of their horrendous fundamentals, as well they should when left to themselves instead of being manipulated by our corporatist, fascist, elitist scum and their financial anti-gravity machines). The Senate is going to add some tax breaks to sweeten it for the House Republicans, but the House Democrats may then be put off. The Senate is thus trying to obfuscate what is the main issue - that the plan won't work, will ultimately increase our pain and fan the flames of hyper-stagflation and out-of-control, double-digit interest rates as everyone stampedes toward the exits, trying to unload their treasury paper all at the same time before it becomes worthless. Meanwhile, the bribes and threats are being thrown every which way as the Wall Street pirates and the usual government scalawags attempt to claim their booty.

This so-called rescue plan is a "disgrace," is "totally flawed" and there are many better, and far less expensive, alternatives, notes the respected economist Nouriel Roubini. Also noted by Mr. Roubini is the fact that credit and other financial markets have been deteriorating despite the prospects of approval for the PP, which shows you in spades that the plan won't work and will do little more than line the pockets of the Illuminists at the expense of the taxpayers who will get vaporized in the end. Rather than lay out all of his arguments in detail here, we provide you with the following web sites:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-mo...e_best_way_to_
recapitalize_the_financial_system_no_it_is_rather_a_disgrace_and_rip-off_benefitting_only_the_shareholders_and_unsecured_creditors_of_banks

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-mo...h_more_severe_
in_spite_of_the_treasury_rescue_plan_the_risk_of_a_total_systemic_meltdown_is_now_as_high_as_ever

As Mr. Roubini points out, the government's purchase of bank assets is the route the Japanese took, and this led to a two-decade recession/depression which they still struggle with to this day. We will now follow them into financial oblivion unless by some miracle the elitists are stopped from implementing the PP, or the Derivative Death-Star detonates before they can complete their final raping of the sheople. Instead of having a brief one or two years of moderate depression, we will end up with one or two lost decades and the worst depression ever created in the history of mankind, not to mention a corporate, fascist police state.



The PP will temporarily put off, and greatly magnify, the final implosion of our economy which will be worse by an order of magnitude as the direct result of the implementation of the PP. The glowing, Quadrillion Dollar Derivative Death-Star insures that destruction is on its way. It is not "if," but "when." When it explodes, in the aftermath, a financial black hole will form as global markets implode, and will suck everything into one final crushing moment of complete annihilation. The PP will only serve to extend the period of elitist fraud, and they will continue to produce toxic waste and dump it on their sucker-dupes for vast fees, spreads and commissions as they speculate, gamble and re-leverage with all their newfound largesse, courtesy of the US taxpayer and the backing of nationalized Phonie and Fraudie along with the huge injection from the PP.

This all ties in with the Big Sting Two. They have beaten down commodities. Now, all they have to do is have the PPT drive up the stock market with the puffery provided by the PP, and they win. They will bail out through their dark pools of liquidity, Project Turquoise and Baikal, behind the public's back, and then use their sales proceeds to buy up all the tangible assets such as precious metals, commodities, real estate and domestic infrastructure at fraudulently manipulated and reduced prices. Such drastically reduced prices will also become available at an ever-accelerating pace as financial and business corporations continue to collapse and go into bankruptcy. After they have bailed out of all dollar-denominated paper assets, the Illuminati will let the stock and bond markets come-crashing down, the price of precious metals and other tangible assets will explode, they will clean up, and you, the sheople taxpayers, will get left holding the proverbial bag of worthless fiat paper for the nth time.

As the system implodes, the highly appreciated tangible assets of the Illuminists will be used to purchase property for pennies on the dollar as liquidations continue under the weight of what will be a complete systemic failure of the fiat money and credit system, after the elitists have had their fun. That is their hope, but we doubt they can hold it up long enough to complete their final rip-off of the sheople. This is why they fear the Derivatives Death-Star, and start mumbling to themselves every time someone in Congress brings that subject up. They must bail out before this Death-Star detonates, or they will be wiped out, hence their desperation to implement the PP. They intend to leave nothing but burned out corporate husks, the Fed and the Big Five included, when the Derivatives Death-Star detonates, and then you, the sheople, will be asked to nationalize the entire banking system. This is what happened to Germany in the aftermath of the Weimar Republic after hyperinflation had cut its swath of destruction. And we have relatives of some of the same players involved in the rebuilding of Nazi Germany as a fascist police state. Caligula's grandfather, Prescott Bush, helped finance the new Nazi fascist government through a banking concern he managed which was later shut down as an entity that collaborated with the Nazis. He was almost hanged for treason before his Illuminist buddies saved his neck. And now GHWB and Dubya are working off the same playbook as history repeats itself. The Fourth Reich is coming to a theatre near you, complete with Nazi death camps and a Nazi police state. As you watch the financial carnage going down all around you, perhaps you can now start to understand and appreciate that this is not business as usual and that we are not conspiracy quacks talking out of our back ends. You had better wake up and take action quickly, or you will be caught up in a new Holocaust.

Now, let's take a look at some of the new blather that was added to the PP to bring about the so-called compromise. First, we state categorically that the taxpayers will not make a single dime of profit from this scam. You are going to pay for this cess pool of toxic sewage at the "hold to maturity value," which means you will pay par less any principal reduction from payments received. And which paper do you think they are going to buy with your dollars? Do you think it will be the stuff worth 70 cents on the dollar, or will it be the stuff going for 10 cents or less on the dollar? We will not even insult your intelligence by answering that question. And if this toxic waste is worth pennies on the dollar now, what will it be worth when our economy finally comes down under the weight of our rabid profligacy, rampaging fraud, rampant speculation, raving lunatic leverage and roaring, outrageous deficits? You guessed it. A big fat goose egg. You will eat the whole thing - guaranteed.

I wonder why they need "money with a specific number"?

How did they count it out?

Just curious...

EURO ECONOMY (15)

More bad time come for ECB and spacially for Euro (E-15) people more jobs cut will be in future and according to my thought unemployment rate will hit more then 8% in this year (2008) last Q to 2009 first Q and will hit 10% in 2009's last Q and that will cut spending of Euro and more bad news will be facing from Banking sector and still ECB not interset in rate cutting which will more pain full result in coming days for Euro and Inflation rate will be at 1.5% at the 2009's last Q .According to my thought now inflation fighting time is over its time to cut rate and again hold its economy and pulled out its Economy from reccission its keep in mind according to my thought no any action can pulled out Euro from Reccission but ECB can face short time reccission but for this must be cut rate and pulled out economy from reccission ,Due to USA push bill of $700B in congress and waiting now although no other option currently in FED pocket to pulled out its Economy from Reccission and Financial crisis and housing crisis only one way in its hand pump money in market and rescue banking sector and restor cansumer confidance in USA but if Cingress pass this bill then USA face more then $1T
Budjet Daficit and hold risky assest (Sick Assesst, which need madicen i mean money but not sure will recover from its sickness or not?) Tight lending continue and cansumer will face more proble inshortagemoneyand spending will sharnke in future and jobs cut will raise more and according to my thought it might be hit more then 7.5% in 2009 last Q ,USA will stay for long time in reccission and might be that time for three years or more .Due to lossing banking sector confidance on Craditer tight lending and housing not will recover and industry will facing more challanges in future but European Economy have strong market which emerging market l;ike Chaina, Russia and India also and will hold again befor USA , but according to my thought Euro (E-15) companies and ECB can get more faver and very fast recovery if Euro /Dollar exchnage rate will be 1.1550 and that will again force companies to hire more people and filled order which got from abroad and accordingto my thought will again raise its growth and inflation will again move upword side due to growth not commodities prices.Now PMI Manufacturing anf PMI Srvices in euro region conterct level and will be at 35%and 31% respactivley .And Interset rate will be come down at 1% to 1.50% in 2009 and Euro will be at 1.1000 to 1.1550 ,
according to my thought .

USA Worlds Largets Economy

Today Worldlargets economy under crisis and under fear or in reccission and that is long time reccission due to housing and financial crisis .Although USA Govt. Push $700B rescue bill although Congress rejacet bill befor now again in Congress home ground and Govt.want to purches sick Assesst to restor confidance but according to my thought that step puch USA Economy in more problem due to Banks lossing confidance to lend the people due to raising default of People and tight more Lending rules,although cradite line is blood for Economy according to Mr.Ben Fed Chairman .And USA's Nation need more money for Purching Cars ,Home,home aplances and Children Eduction other side banks now have tight lending rules and mostly people didnt qulifiy for loan aand business also facing tight lending rules and might be bank will more tight candation in future and according to my thought if Cingress will delay in passing bill that for one or two month then more financial institution will clloupes in future and if its happen then Might be USA loss its grip as save havean assesst .Although Govt. Take step to purches Sick assesst and that all of infacted from housing sector but Govt. still dont have any rescue packege for housing industries and housing relatiad industries is now at edge of clloupes .How they get banifit from sick assesst ?Although its temparery breath for USA Economy and might be boost prices of that sick assesst but that will again in falling after fade result in future .

CRADITE RATING

According to my thought Congress Must pass bill which is $700B that will not sporrt of USA cradite Rating whihc is now at AAA+ according to Moody.Com due to Rescue plan its will raise Budject Dificit more then $1.3T and according to my thought it will raise more then $1.6T ,and tight lending rules will cut spending and housing business will clloupes and more Jobless Rate will raise and according to my thought it will raise more then 7.5% in coming Qs. Housing also have also clloupes and more bad time still in .due to falling home values make less wealthy then befor start crisis and housing and financial crisis force companies to cut it cost and companies will raise job cutting in future and now Manufacturing inclouding PMI of Manufacturing at 43.5% and USA Companies will cut more spending and house hold spending will fall more due to jobs cuting and Spending contribute more then two thired of USA growth and Manufacturing contribute more then 15% of USA growth ,Trade Deficit have been raise again which is now at $62B . Pay roll cut every month companies cut more then 400000 jobs from start crisis .and according to my thoght although Euro and dollar exchnage rate will come down and might be hold at 1.1000 to 1.1500 .
And According to my thought Euro will get more then 50% share of reserv which is now at 26% and dollaor will reached at 45% share of reserv which is now at 63% in future.

COMMODITIES BEHAVIOUR

Oil Price will be fall according to my thought due to reccission in worlds largets economy of USA, Euro ,UK, Japan and that all economies push globel economy in Reccission also and whole world will facing jobless rate raise and job cutting will cut spending and that will cut demand of more oil and oil will facing down side direction but Gold can gain ground against dollar no more comoodities geting any kind of banifit from Reccission in major economies of worlds . So selling in Comoodities and major Currencies against Dollar but not for long time for short time which might be 2Q or 3Q.



Reprt by :- Faiz Rasool

Email:[email protected]

Not a great depression but many people will have more depression when that cannot get home loans auto loans basic credit... I think peoplw will start to realize just how crazy we let our lives go over the past 20+ years with the credit industry.

Lets hope this 700B bailout helps but I for one am not counting on it!

very funny today. Bailout passed, and the market tanked.
$700b down the drain..oops!

Laff, no joke. Altho not everyone has lived beyond their means. I, for one, carry no long term debt. No home mortgage, no car loan, no student loans, no credit card debt, no retail debt. Some of us didn't get sucked into this mess.

This is no where near the great depression.

During the great depression:
* The annual per-capital income was $750. Less than $300 for farm workers
* Unemployment was 8.7% by 1930, 15.9% by 1931, 23.6% by 1932, peaking at 24.9% by 1933
* Over 10,000 banks had failed between 1929 and 1932
* GNP had contracted by 31%
* The top income tax bracket was 63%
* Industrial stocks had fallen by 80% at one point

By comparison... The average annual income in 2007 was $50,000. Compensating for inflation... $1000 in 1929 is approx $12000 in 2007. $50000 today would be worth about $4300 of 1929's dollars. $4300/750 = 5.7. The average person today makes 5.7 times what they would've in 1929.

Unemployment is now at 6.1%. Compare that with nearly 25%...

Only 13 banks have failed this year, 16 since 2004.

The DJIA has lost about 21% year-to-date. No where near 80%. The top tax bracket is getting smaller all the time (I believe the alternative minimum tax was changed in the recent package, wasn't it?). And GNP and GDP are down, but no where near 30%.


Yeh, but we didn't really expect the results to be immediate did we? The goal was to create a market for the mortgage-backed securities so companies can get them off their balance sheet, at least as losses. Expect results to begin posting next quarter, and to continue for the next year or 2.