Hello and welcome to this new and hopefully helpful thread. I intend to post any opportunites that I come across. Feel free to pop in, say hello, give your opinion and share any ideas that you may have.
Although this is a pair that I do not actively follow, it's something that I have been interested in over the week or so.
The 1hr chart look rather weak with lower lows and highs. The 4hr 21 CCI is in negative. If the price resists of the dark red line (4hr 20ma) we could see 1.06 shortly which is the support area from May.
However, it has broken the weekly 50ma with some power, which we haven't seen since May 06. This can be seen on the daily chart with the darker blue line on the second chart. If we are going to see a move higher then I'd want to see it find support of the weekly 50.
Personally I see $ weakness and therefore would like USDCHF down but, as always one needs to trade what they see.
I'll load both charts to give you a good perspective.
things ot looking great for the EURUSD position as mentioned crude not giving us direction. Crude has decided to break to the upside and could be a player to 105 area
Silver is looking rather bid at the moment. Got a resistance line coming in from 13.60. The 21 CCI has just crossed and we are just above the daily pivot. Target would have to be at 14.30/ daily 50 ma or the monthly pivot.
FTSE 100 is boxed and trying to break to the downside. A break to the downside and a 123 move, finding resistance of the dark blue line 15 min 200/ 1hr 50 could be a player targeting the 5000 area.
Silver is looking rather bid at the moment. Got a resistance line coming in from 13.60. The 21 CCI has just crossed and we are just above the daily pivot. Target would have to be at 14.30/ daily 50 ma or the monthly pivot.
FTSE 100 is boxed and trying to break to the downside. A break to the downside and a 123 move, finding resistance of the dark blue line 15 min 200/ 1hr 50 could be a player targeting the 5000 area.
Ignored
This took a little while to materialise but you know whatthey say "pacience is key" and everything. Wanted to hold this down to around the 5000 mark but decided to close just before the London market closed.
Was anyone else in any of these trades today?
Think I will definatly call it a day now and make my famous curry pasta for my flatmate. They hate it, means more for me though!
I am interested to know how you decide on your profit targets for your trades.
As a reader of your previous thread which I assume has now been abandoned, I was able to see that some of your targets were at obvious levels of support or resistance or some other key level. However, some of your targets were not at obvious (at least not obvious to me) levels of s/r, moving averages or pivot points. Please could you give some details/advice on how and why you might decide on profit targets, which might not be obvious to someone relatively new to forex.
Also, regarding stop-losses, do you always enter a trade with a positive risk/reward ratio? I have noticed that many times when a good set-up occurs, placing a stop-loss at the previous high/low would have given me a negative r/r ratio for the intended target, but price more often than not still seems to reach its target anyways (without hitting the previous high/low)! I am tempted to start ignoring this idea/rule that a trade should not be entered unless there is a reasonable probability of achieving a positive r/r!
I have also read FXP’s thread over at TSD forum, so I have a reasonable understanding of your methodology.
I hope more people contribute to this thread than on your previous thread, as I believe this is a sound, logical methodology and I am sure many more novice traders (as well as the more experienced) could benefit from your experience in trading this way.
If I could offer what I hope would be taken as constructive criticism; maybe if you posted some regular advice on the nuances of trading this way (or even trading generally), it would help to spark a bit of debate or a question/answer session (if that’s what your intention is), that would be useful to many. Otherwise, I fear that this thread will just become a platform for posting your results, just like your previous thread!
I for one appreciate the time and effort you put into this thread and hope it continues.
Good morning everyone, I trust you are all well. After a nice long sleep and a quick refreshing swim, I'm ready to attack this market. Easy now, just looking for the moment.
Well, with all this bailout concern in the states where will the U.S dollar go today?
From a technical point, I see some dollar stregth coming in, atleast for a while.
The gold 1hr chart looks like it want to retrace down to the 860/865 mark, the 5 min chart sis steup for move lower, just need some price action to kick start things for us.
I am interested to know how you decide on your profit targets for your trades.
As a reader of your previous thread which I assume has now been abandoned, I was able to see that some of your targets were at obvious levels of support or resistance or some other key level. However, some of your targets were not at obvious (at least not obvious to me) levels of s/r, moving averages or pivot points. Please could you give some details/advice on how and why you might decide on profit targets, which might not be obvious to someone relatively new to forex.
Also, regarding stop-losses, do you always enter a trade with a positive risk/reward ratio? I have noticed that many times when a good set-up occurs, placing a stop-loss at the previous high/low would have given me a negative r/r ratio for the intended target, but price more often than not still seems to reach its target anyways (without hitting the previous high/low)! I am tempted to start ignoring this idea/rule that a trade should not be entered unless there is a reasonable probability of achieving a positive r/r!
I have also read FXP’s thread over at TSD forum, so I have a reasonable understanding of your methodology.
I hope more people contribute to this thread than on your previous thread, as I believe this is a sound, logical methodology and I am sure many more novice traders (as well as the more experienced) could benefit from your experience in trading this way.
If I could offer what I hope would be taken as constructive criticism; maybe if you posted some regular advice on the nuances of trading this way (or even trading generally), it would help to spark a bit of debate or a question/answer session (if that’s what your intention is), that would be useful to many. Otherwise, I fear that this thread will just become a platform for posting your results, just like your previous thread!
I for one appreciate the time and effort you put into this thread and hope it continues.
Gary
Ignored
Hi Gary,
Thanks for your message. I'll attempt to go through my entries as I think this is as equally important when deciding upon targets. Well as you know, having read FXP's thread, the entry criteria, trade with the longer term CCI, use the shorter CCI to get you in with a 123 move usually being a safer option to confirm s/r. Even though, often the case may be that waiting for the 123 move to happen means loosing out on a few pips.
When I see an opportunity, the first thing I look at is where could it go, then if that is to occur, where should it not go. When I first started few years back, I placed every trade with a positive r/r ratio or stops being in the right place. As many, doubled my account, then get cheeky, forgot all about r/r and lost the lot. What I have learnt, above everything else is that stops NEED to be in the right place. You're looking at this trade, or the opportunity to trade because you feel that the instrument will move to X price. Have belief in yourself, because what you'll find is that more often that not, you're right. Why do so many novices get burnt?? From speaking to various new traders, it's too tight stops! Now, having a good r/r ratio is one thing, and having the stops in the right place is another. Or is it? Well, firstly, I guess what is a good r/r ratio, 1:5, 1:2 or 1:1.5. This is a personal matter but personally I'm happy with the last two. The way I manage the trades, is to close 1/2 the position at target 1, and 1/2 at target 2 (or 1/3 if there's three targets). To clarify, I think having a good r/r is great, I'd say a minimum of 1:5 but above all the stops need to be above/below previous lows/highs and/or s/r levels. Yes it may not hit the level before hitting your target, but that's what you want, right? A level that is unlikely to hit if your analysis is right.
As for where I get my target levels from, usually the 1st target is on the 5/15 min chart then the rest is on the time frame above. Something to note is that I often reduce my SL to break even so that my risk is minimal. OK, so the opportunity cost is there, you could have banked £10 per point an 100 pip, instead you took 100 @ £5. But, in my opinion, that's the money management side of trading. Plus you have given youself the opportunity to maximise you pips. This way, as your stake increases from say £10 to £20, you're still banking 100 pips @ £10 when closing 1/2 a position.
In relation to the thread, the problem I am finding is trying to chat in the room, and trade whilst posting setups on here. In particular, the shorter time frames, as often by the time you have posted, the moves have started. This is something a few of us are working on and hopefully we should have a setup to accommodate for this.
I hope this helps answer your questions, if you would like to discuss the matter in more detail, feel free to add me on Skype: hemal_pandya
With gold looking weak, think this silver could be a player.. have a look at the Silver daily chart. It's finding resistance of the daily 50 MA. the break of the lows at $13 is the level I'm looking at.
