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What is BOJ's Fukui speaking on tonight? 4 replies

Attachments: BoJ Rate Decision and Fukui speaks at 1:30 EST
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BoJ Rate Decision and Fukui speaks at 1:30 EST

  • #81
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:34pm Feb 20, 2007 11:34pm

a hike doesnt put jpy long...............
a wanna hav a cofee

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #82
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:35pm Feb 20, 2007 11:35pm
Wow that was unexpected. If JPY can shrug off an 8-1 vote interest rate announcement like that, it could be headed way down. I am going to wait a few hours to let it all settle in, and if the price is where it was before Fukui spoke, I might just go long GBP/JPY.

Any thoughts?
  • #83
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:37pm Feb 20, 2007 11:37pm
A lot of people expected this, that is why .. at least I believe.. the JPY news moved the markets a whole lot last week. Last week was a pricing in for this rate hike. The USD/JPY spiked down 100 pips after key fundamental news last Wednesday or Thursday.. something like that.

I do agree with you though, it is puzzling that they even wait for the report to come out if all they are going to do is push it up afterwards.

EDIT: This is in reply to Rosco
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #84
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:38pm Feb 20, 2007 11:38pm
Not sure here, I would think that the best postion after this annoucement would be a short one, especially if he has hawkish comments at 1:30.
  • #85
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:40pm Feb 20, 2007 11:40pm
Looks like this thread should change its title...It's official... JPY interest is now 0.50%....
  • #86
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:42pm Feb 20, 2007 11:42pm
Quoting PennyJ
Wow that was unexpected. If JPY can shrug off an 8-1 vote interest rate announcement like that, it could be headed way down. I am going to wait a few hours to let it all settle in, and if the price is where it was before Fukui spoke, I might just go long GBP/JPY.

Any thoughts?
Wait for Fukui's comments.
"Even the word impossible says that I M possible"
  • #87
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:46pm Feb 20, 2007 11:46pm
Quoting putratrg
BOJ raised interest rate, so what now? long or short yen?
Uhmmm... don't you have a plan????
Mr. Trend
  • #88
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:54pm Feb 20, 2007 11:54pm
Quoting Mr Trend
Uhmmm... don't you have a plan????
Will wait for Fukui's comment before making my move, but those spike scared me.

Any thoughts?

Thanks in advance
  • #89
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:55pm Feb 20, 2007 11:55pm
Rockin! I can't get enough!!
  • #90
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:56pm Feb 20, 2007 11:56pm
Quoting SkYliNe0511
Indeed, but I think this will trigger short-term selling preasure on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY. And we have to see how many people vote for the rate hike and read BoJ's statement though since this might be another indication for another rate hike after this meeting.

Bottomline: rate hike would create short-term selling across the board on yen pairs.

Disclaimer: no buy, hold, sell recommendation. (I don't wanna get sued voicing my opinion.)

I hope nobody followed that blindly..
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #91
  • Feb 21, 2007 12:00am Feb 21, 2007 12:00am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I hope nobody followed that blindly..
LOL
  • #92
  • Feb 21, 2007 12:22am Feb 21, 2007 12:22am
Quoting raczekfx
I'd like to see it drop to 233.50/70 before or after news. That's where my limit buy is waiting.
..and I don't consider it a gamble...
Which fib did I miss this time!
Was long at 234.00 on PB/BUOB break long before the announcement and asleep when it happened, position came through it quite well, still waiting for 240+

Why 233.50-70? =) Although it was a terrific buy again at the lows =)
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #93
  • Feb 21, 2007 1:36am Feb 21, 2007 1:36am

Quoting Zarul Shahrin
I hope nobody followed that blindly..



agreed....

and london open will rally the market same way....
im gonna long at london open...
"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #94
  • Feb 21, 2007 2:09am Feb 21, 2007 2:09am
Japans & ours interests are to have lower Jen,...thats why we go short on yen...when we come to 2.5% then & only then the carry trades might be over....
its just money
  • #95
  • Feb 21, 2007 2:50am Feb 21, 2007 2:50am
Quoting benajnim
My personal prediction is rates wont rise. One good GDP figure isn't much for justification, and the Japanese want to keep their currencies weak because it is good for their end of global trade. If they do, I predict the Yen will strengthen (go lower in */jpy) but there is much more downward pressure on this currency because its rates are dirt cheap in general. Its a money party, selling this cheap yen and the bounty will be around until rates diverge substantially from where they are now. Interest rates and value of currency are proportional, but tonight wont be the change in general tide. If the difference in rates between the highest yielding and the yen in the majors gets 100 basis points or so closer, that is when we will start to see roaring surges in Yen (tanking usd/jpy, eur/jpy, gbp/jpy and others).
The Yen is fueling world inflation but not domestic inflation. The BOJ has its reasons for remaining dovish, while the rest of the world grows hawkish in response.
Bears dine on beef
  • #96
  • Feb 21, 2007 3:10am Feb 21, 2007 3:10am
BOJ Fukui: Next Rate Hike Timing Completely Open
21.02.07 09:56:00 CET
Fukui said Wednesday's decision took into account possible weakness in
consumer prices in coming months.
"On-year growth in core consumer prices may fall near zero in coming months
due to the recent fall in crude oil prices," Fukui said, but added that on-year
growth in the core CPI is expected to stay in positive territory.
Fukui said the BOJ and the government have no difference of opinion on the
outlook for the CPI.
He added that Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata, who was against raising rates,
is worried about uncertainty over future prices.
Fukui said the bank must take account of developments of the so-called
yen-carry trades, a strategy to exploit Japan's low rates to earn higher
returns overseas. If the market builds up those positions excessively and then
unwinds them, that could hurt economies here and overseas, he said.
But the BOJ chief added that those trades aren't a decisive factor in making
policy decisions.
"Yen-carry trades are not the kind of thing we should squarely face up to and
knock down," he said.
Fukui also indicated that the yen's weakness wasn't solely due to
carry-trades.
"I do not think the yen's weakness on the whole is a distortion," he said. The
yen's declines partly stemmed from the fact that Japanese investors, including
households, are increasingly making investments abroad as they shake off their
habit of keeping money at home, he said.
  • #97
  • Feb 21, 2007 3:27am Feb 21, 2007 3:27am
Quoting Rosco_P
Same here


I thought this meant the currency was "worth more" hence a short move with all major */jpy crosses.

yes, but, well, its not 1+1=2. Expectations, facts, comprehensions factor in.
  • #98
  • Feb 21, 2007 3:43am Feb 21, 2007 3:43am
I believe alot of people are simply relieved to finally know the decision. It has been affecting the JPY crosses alot recently, now the JPY's can get back down to buisness.

I am still in Longs from last week when it went down to the 119.35-40 daily fib level and backside of a weekly Trendline.
The basis of a democratic state is liberty. ~ Aristotle
  • #99
  • Feb 21, 2007 3:57am Feb 21, 2007 3:57am
Quoting dswk
"I do not think the yen's weakness on the whole is a distortion," he said. The yen's declines partly stemmed from the fact that Japanese investors, including households, are increasingly making investments abroad as they shake off their habit of keeping money at home, he said.
Thanks be to Fukui for easy pips. If only Bernanke were so frank.
Bears dine on beef
  • #100
  • Feb 21, 2007 4:41am Feb 21, 2007 4:41am
Quote
Contrary to popular opinion, the interest rate decision did NOT lead to significant Yen gains. There were two main reasons why the Yen failed to rally. The first was because the quarter point rate hike still left the Japanese Yen as the lowest interest rate bearing currency in the developed world. Secondly, the Bank of Japan indicated that even though they raised interest rates, they will not follow-up the move with another rate hike in the near future and instead will leave monetary policy very accommodative. With no moves since then, we see that the Bank of Japan has left interest rates on hold for at least seven months.
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...996580240.html
Bears dine on beef
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