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  • #2,921
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:42pm Feb 18, 2007 4:42pm
itme..

GBP/USD
BUY @ 1.9555
STOP 1.9525
TAKE PROFIT 1.9700 RISK/REWARD RATIO 7.2 OK TO TRADE.

ANY COMMENT PLZ..THX
  • #2,922
  • Feb 18, 2007 5:11pm Feb 18, 2007 5:11pm
Hi itme

Thanks for your great threads in regards to the elliot wave theory. If possible I would like to know if I'm seeing the chart correctly using this theory. I'd appreciate you evaluating this chart since I'm in the beginning stages of studing the theory and just want to make sure I'm on track.

Thanks
Attached Image
  • #2,923
  • Feb 18, 2007 5:45pm Feb 18, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting gody6000
itme..

GBP/USD
BUY @ 1.9555
STOP 1.9525
TAKE PROFIT 1.9700 RISK/REWARD RATIO 7.2 OK TO TRADE.

ANY COMMENT PLZ..THX
I am concerned for your trade. It is not what I would do. I try to enter at the end of one wave and beginning of another, or at the end of a corrective wave and beginning of an impulse wave. Your entry is neither. Your stop is not in a safe place, behind a support or resistance line, or safely past a recent high or low. If you assume we are starting Wave 3 up, then still there can be a retracement to 1.9500 or lower before the next impulsive wave occurs. You may win this trade, but it is not strategic in my opinion.
  • #2,924
  • Feb 18, 2007 8:14pm Feb 18, 2007 8:14pm
Quoting itme
I am concerned for your trade. It is not what I would do. I try to enter at the end of one wave and beginning of another, or at the end of a corrective wave and beginning of an impulse wave. Your entry is neither. Your stop is not in a safe place, behind a support or resistance line, or safely past a recent high or low. If you assume we are starting Wave 3 up, then still there can be a retracement to 1.9500 or lower before the next impulsive wave occurs. You may win this trade, but it is not strategic in my opinion.
I agree with ITME that the market will likely close the gap and likely to bounce of 9510 area as we are now in wave C of 4. So the stops at 25 is not where I would have placed them I am attaching m charts. Hopefully that could helps someone if ITME deos not mind
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip temp.zip   142 KB | 269 downloads
  • #2,925
  • Feb 18, 2007 8:16pm Feb 18, 2007 8:16pm
Hi Itme, I have just finished reading this thread and WOW. When I say wow I,m not even talking about your method, but rather your structure. Very Impressive journal, very consistent and methodical. As for all of the naysayers on EW I have only this to say. I am not an EW expert by any means, however as Crazy Connie Brown has said, You dont need to be a watchmaker in order to be able to tell the time. The Problem with many newbies getting into EW is that they try to learn how to make the watch before they can tell the time. For this reason, I would suggest if trying to learn EW to start from that 30-50 year chart and work from the outside in. Try to get your count to make sense in terms of certain symetries and confirming characteristics in wave counts. I am still at that level and it is difficult but becoming clearer. Anyway it is just an opinion.

As for knowledge, it is the goal or should be of every professional trader to keep seeking observing and documenting. Many people will knock EW as I have knocked EW, but truly it is easy to always knock any puzzle that you cant put together. I have heard the "trend trader" argument and although it may work for some for the time being, it is extremely mis-labeled, especially when coupled with technical analysis. The whole point of technical analysis is to use information in order to predict turning points in trends of all levels, so that a low risk entry may be made which rides the new trend until a truning point is again discovered, etc,etc. This is trend trading and this is exactly what itme is sizing up all of his methodologies to do. As we look for these turning points, I believe EW can add alot of structure and symettry giving us more clues as to fib characteristics within or around waves, it can add some kind of cycle dynamic to our divergences and trend continuation patterns and once they all start lining up, it can help us to determine those low risk areas to enter trend and high probability areas(at least as high as we can expect) to look for characteristics that would be indicative of turning points. This is trend trading at its best - not that you cannot make money without it, however a more thurough knowledge coupled with MM, psychology, and balance in your life and you will be at your greatest potential. I dont have anything against Jacko - I have heard many wonderfull accounts of him with help he has given others, but I do think Jacko is the way he is because he has to be the way he is. That is his psychology for the game and if he were to change that, than he wouldn,t be who he is. Itme seems to be rather similar in his psychology perhaps with less of a crude edge, but similar nonetheless. The only thing that I see with Jacko however is that for some reason he feels threatened by progress, perhaps he is scared that a deeper knowledge will screw up something that works, and that is totally valid, especially if you get into questioning what you have been doing and do not search thuroughly and structuredly for your answers - In fact, that seems to be the case here with many newbie EW followers. You will fall on your face with this attitude that you just need to learn the count quickly and position yourself etc etc - itme please show me the money attitude. If you really want to learn EW - start with basics as with anything else, move deeper if you so desire but at least know what you do know and know it well, that is the only way to make true progress in anything. Then you can compare counts and you will know if it makes sense and you will know if you have a valid question even worthy of a response, because you are now looking to characteristics of wave counts that give more liklihood to the counts themselves, and if something doesn´t fit right, there is probably a reason for that, and now you can have an intelligent conversation - or perhaps even a run-on sentence or two. Is this count right or wrong means nothing when you dont even know what right or wrong means - he could say yes its a good count and you would only know less about EW because of that answer.

Anyway, appreciate the thread - please nobody take offense to anything that i have said as I know that we have all been there at one time or another and i do not exclude myself from any of the criticisms i have made. the fact that we are all even here is a good sign, especialy from those that continually search for understanding and knowledge, however long that may take. And Jacko, you just may be proof that analysis and trading are two completely different things, but that doesn,t mean that if one has a talent for analysis, that they should stop to develop that talent and just make money - why not do both - wouldn,t that just increase the odds of creating more wealth? In fact, from what I hear about you as a trader, I am sure you can get alot from a person like itme and that both of you probably have much you can offer to each other. A Jacko-Itme fund would probably be extremely explosive. Alot of times when you have two extreme opposite side arguments, the truth more likely lies somewhere in between, although neither of you would probably ever admit to it because that would just change that need to believe 100% in what you believe. But seriously, imagine jacko like trading where you make a fortune off of spotting a trend as it is halfway into it, coupled with itme spot accurate trend analysis - this is what we all as traders should strive for - We can all learn alot from extremely different perspectives.

Sorry again for the run on
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,926
  • Edited 2:15am Feb 19, 2007 12:17am | Edited 2:15am
A careful look at the EUR/USD today indicates that the price of this pair will likely descend from the current value of 1.3155 down to about 1.3050 over the next 48 hours in a Wave C and then rise to about 1.3220 in a Fifth Wave of the Third Wave upwards.

From there it will likely descend to about 1.3100 in a larger Wave 4 before heading up towards about 1.3500.

I used to favor the wave hypothesis that stated that we had not yet completed a large Wave A down and were due for a large Wave 5 down to finish it. But I've changed my mind. That wasn't a very strong hypothesis, though it is still possible in my mind.
_____________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________

Previous Trade Experiment:

 02-14-07, 10:40
Re-enter Trade Experiment #341B Sell EUR/USD at 1.3146
Careful study indicates that 1.3146 is a high probability reversal value. The stop should have been placed 15 pips above this value at 1.3161. The current high is 1.3150. With a RRR of 6.4, this is the first system compliant trade on EURUSD so far.

Therefore re-enter Trade Experiment #341B Sell EUR/USD at 1.3146

Stop is 1.3181

Target is 1.2900

Risk is 38 pips

Reward is 243 pips

RRR is 6.4 to 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

 Wave hypothesis : Wave 5 down.
  • #2,927
  • Edited 4:57pm Feb 19, 2007 1:12am | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting Leugimp
Hi Itme, I have just finished reading this thread and WOW. When I say wow I'm not even talking about your method, but rather your structure. Very Impressive journal, very consistent and methodical. As for all of the naysayers on EW I have only this to say. I am not an EW expert by any means, however as Crazy Connie Brown has said, You dont need to be a watchmaker in order to be able to tell the time. The Problem with many newbies getting into EW is that they try to learn how to make the watch before they can tell the time. For this reason, I would suggest if trying to learn EW to start from that 30-50 year chart and work from the outside in. Try to get your count to make sense in terms of certain symmetries and confirming characteristics in wave counts.......
Thanks, Leugimp, for a very interesting reflection on this thread. Trading successfully isn't a common thing, and there are various levels of aspiration, as well as various personality types. Whatever the case, we do need to be humble, diligent, hardworking, careful and methodical. The only success can come from successfully predicting which way the market will move next, without moving too far in the wrong direction first. That is fundamental. No one can escape this basic necessity of the game of trading. In this sense we are all in the same boat. The number of ways we respond to this challenge is as many as the number of traders, but the bottom line is we need to find a way to predict a trend direction into the future, and try to enter at a time near to either the beginning of the trend, or the beginning of a second or third impulsive wave within the trend. The size of the trend can vary enormously due to the various scales of oscillations, but the basic strategy must be common to all trading systems - short term or long term.

The tools we might employ vary over a wide range from simple support and resistance lines to complex combinations of technical indicators or mathematical formulas, and include fundamental as well as technical analysis. No system is perfect, so we need to accept errors and losses as an integral part of our trading system, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't or needn't be complacent or dogmatic about possible ways to improve the accuracy of our entries, stops and exits, or to reduce the number of failures of our trading system (losses) by tweaking our method or incorporating revolutionary new strategies.

For every role, there's a player. Mine is to dream about absolutes, and to challenge accepted beliefs. Keep this in mind when reading this journal. The dreamer and inventor has a role, but is not necessarily the best advisor in practical matters. I am inspired by sensed and indicated possibilities, but the task of making new visions real and practical is long and arduous, and requires dogged determination, as well as flexibility and common sense. If (or when) my dream comes true, I will be among the better traders in the world, but not necessarily any more successful than thousands of other hard working, diligent traders following many other clever and well developed trading systems based on entirely different methods.

"I find the better analysts that I meet have a very refined sense of their potential for being wrong at any given time. In fact, the better they are, the more humility they seem to exhibit. They may pound the table when espousing their point of view, and argue with great and laudable vigor; but they constantly keep an open mind, looking to learn and grow with each missed call."

- John Mauldin
  • #2,928
  • Edited 11:44pm Feb 19, 2007 2:08pm | Edited 11:44pm
Pound remains weaker after housing data, BoE comments

LONDON (AFX) - The pound remained weaker, having suffered earlier from soft housing data and comments by the Bank of England in a written submission to the parliamentary Treasury Committee which indicated that a weaker pound may be necessary to balance the current accounts.

The Rightmove house price survey showed the annual price growth easing to 11.5 pct in February from 13.5 pct in January.

The survey suggests that the Bank of England's surprise decision to raise interest rates to a five-and-a-half year high of 5.25 pct in January has had the desired effect of dampening demand for property.

The figure softened the pound, which then fell further after a written statement by the Bank of England.

The pound 'tumbled to a six-day low of 1.9433 on the back of the Treasury Select Committee's release of BoE written evidence suggesting that some pound depreciation will 'probably be necessary' in order to cut the UK current account deficit,' explained Robert Howard at Thomson IFR Markets.

[After that it bounced right back up to 1.9547, though.]

Investor attention will now turn to public sector finance figures tomorrow and to the BoE minutes Wednesday.

'These will reveal how many, if any, committee members voted for a 25 basis point rate rise' this month, said Howard....
  • #2,929
  • Edited 3:28pm Feb 19, 2007 3:12pm | Edited 3:28pm
Quoting thunder
Hi itme

Thanks for your great threads in regards to the elliot wave theory. If possible I would like to know if I'm seeing the chart correctly using this theory. I'd appreciate you evaluating this chart since I'm in the beginning stages of studing the theory and just want to make sure I'm on track.

Thanks
Where you have a Wave 5, I have a Wave 3. I think we haven't finished this GBP/USD uptrend yet.
  • #2,930
  • Edited Feb 20, 2007 10:59pm Feb 19, 2007 11:46pm | Edited Feb 20, 2007 10:59pm
Sunday February 18
7:01pm GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m 0.9%_____________ 0.5%

Monday February 19
All Day USD Holiday: President's Day
8:30am CAD International Securities Transactions http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif -3.3B 3.8B 11.1Br
8:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m _____________2.7% 0.6% 0.3%r

Tuesday February 20
2:00am EUR German PPI m/m 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
2:15am CHF Trade Balance 1.27B 0.75B 0.43B
2:45am EUR France GDP q/q (r) 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
3:15am CHF PPI m/m_____________ -0.2% -0.1% 0.0%
4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.3B 10.0B 7.2B
4:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
7:00am CAD CPI m/m _____________0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
7:00am CAD Core CPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.1% 0.1% -0.2%
8:30am CAD Leading Indicators m/m 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%
10:30am USD Fed Governor Bies Speaks
6:00pm AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
7:30pm AUD WPI q/q 1.1% 0.9% 0.8%
7:30pm AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 5.3% 1.0% 0.8%
Tentative JPY Interest Rate Statement http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif __________0.25% 0.25%

Today 10:43pm
(JP) *JAPANESE PRESS: BOJ HIKES RATES BY 25BPS



Today 11:04pm
TTN analysis - Yen soften slightly after leaked press reports: BoJ rate hike unlikely to be the start of a series of rate hikes, and for that reason yen is expected to remain under pressure in medium term

- Analysts talking about historical spreads between US and Japanese rates; Speculation that USD/JPY may breach 121.40 towards the first half of the year
- Historically speaking, the trend [interest rate spread] tends to favor the dollar's upside as long as the interest rate gap remains larger than 4%.
- "If the BOJ decides to raise interest rates, it could temporarily lead to a stronger yen, but is unlikely to have a lasting impact" as the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States remains wide. (Keizo Tanaka at Resona Bank)
  • #2,931
  • Feb 20, 2007 4:15pm Feb 20, 2007 4:15pm
Over the past 24 hours GBP/USD has fallen 70 pips then risen 90 pips, reaching a new high.

EUR/USD has gone only down, falling 60 pips.

USD/JPY rose 70 pips, then corrected 50% down.

USD/CHF rose 80 pips, then corrected 50% down.

USD/CAD rose 85 pips, then corrected 30% down.
Attached Image
  • #2,932
  • Feb 20, 2007 9:43pm Feb 20, 2007 9:43pm
Quoting Leugimp
Hi Itme, I have just finished reading this thread and WOW. When I say wow I,m not even talking about your method, but rather your structure. Very Impressive journal, very consistent and methodical. As for all of the naysayers on EW I have only this to say. I am not an EW expert by any means, however as Crazy Connie Brown has said, You dont need to be a watchmaker in order to be able to tell the time. The Problem with many newbies getting into EW is that they try to learn how to make the watch before they can tell the time. For this reason, I would suggest if trying to learn EW to start from that 30-50 year chart and work from the outside in. Try to get your count to make sense in terms of certain symetries and confirming characteristics in wave counts. I am still at that level and it is difficult but becoming clearer. Anyway it is just an opinion.

As for knowledge, it is the goal or should be of every professional trader to keep seeking observing and documenting. Many people will knock EW as I have knocked EW, but truly it is easy to always knock any puzzle that you cant put together. I have heard the "trend trader" argument and although it may work for some for the time being, it is extremely mis-labeled, especially when coupled with technical analysis. The whole point of technical analysis is to use information in order to predict turning points in trends of all levels, so that a low risk entry may be made which rides the new trend until a truning point is again discovered, etc,etc. This is trend trading and this is exactly what itme is sizing up all of his methodologies to do. As we look for these turning points, I believe EW can add alot of structure and symettry giving us more clues as to fib characteristics within or around waves, it can add some kind of cycle dynamic to our divergences and trend continuation patterns and once they all start lining up, it can help us to determine those low risk areas to enter trend and high probability areas(at least as high as we can expect) to look for characteristics that would be indicative of turning points. This is trend trading at its best - not that you cannot make money without it, however a more thurough knowledge coupled with MM, psychology, and balance in your life and you will be at your greatest potential. I dont have anything against Jacko - I have heard many wonderfull accounts of him with help he has given others, but I do think Jacko is the way he is because he has to be the way he is. That is his psychology for the game and if he were to change that, than he wouldn,t be who he is. Itme seems to be rather similar in his psychology perhaps with less of a crude edge, but similar nonetheless. The only thing that I see with Jacko however is that for some reason he feels threatened by progress, perhaps he is scared that a deeper knowledge will screw up something that works, and that is totally valid, especially if you get into questioning what you have been doing and do not search thuroughly and structuredly for your answers - In fact, that seems to be the case here with many newbie EW followers. You will fall on your face with this attitude that you just need to learn the count quickly and position yourself etc etc - itme please show me the money attitude. If you really want to learn EW - start with basics as with anything else, move deeper if you so desire but at least know what you do know and know it well, that is the only way to make true progress in anything. Then you can compare counts and you will know if it makes sense and you will know if you have a valid question even worthy of a response, because you are now looking to characteristics of wave counts that give more liklihood to the counts themselves, and if something doesn´t fit right, there is probably a reason for that, and now you can have an intelligent conversation - or perhaps even a run-on sentence or two. Is this count right or wrong means nothing when you dont even know what right or wrong means - he could say yes its a good count and you would only know less about EW because of that answer.

Anyway, appreciate the thread - please nobody take offense to anything that i have said as I know that we have all been there at one time or another and i do not exclude myself from any of the criticisms i have made. the fact that we are all even here is a good sign, especialy from those that continually search for understanding and knowledge, however long that may take. And Jacko, you just may be proof that analysis and trading are two completely different things, but that doesn,t mean that if one has a talent for analysis, that they should stop to develop that talent and just make money - why not do both - wouldn,t that just increase the odds of creating more wealth? In fact, from what I hear about you as a trader, I am sure you can get alot from a person like itme and that both of you probably have much you can offer to each other. A Jacko-Itme fund would probably be extremely explosive. Alot of times when you have two extreme opposite side arguments, the truth more likely lies somewhere in between, although neither of you would probably ever admit to it because that would just change that need to believe 100% in what you believe. But seriously, imagine jacko like trading where you make a fortune off of spotting a trend as it is halfway into it, coupled with itme spot accurate trend analysis - this is what we all as traders should strive for - We can all learn alot from extremely different perspectives.

Sorry again for the run on



Dude, You are so far wrong on what you are saying here.
I have seen with my own eyes Jacko's trading account statements with 3 different brokers, and they are all HUGELY profitable. I have also seen with my own eyes a complete breakdown of every trade experiment in itmes Elliott Wave trade experiments which was done - and is probably still being done - by Jacko's ex-broker account guy and it is HUGELY unprofitable.
The figures i saw showed the number of winner Elliott Wave trades to be seriously under 10% and a huge NEGATIVE account balance.
That's probably why Jacko is not hanging around here any more, he told me that he was originally interested in itmes work on Elliott Wave, but the more he read the more he lost interest,especially when Mark showed him the figures. My discussions with him lately he told me that he doesnt go to any forums any more. Its a real loss here because he is a seriously great trader and a great guy who helped me to turn my trading around and helped me become a profitable trader. I must have asked some seriously stupid questions when I talk to him but nothing hassles the guy and he is always cool and straight with me. His answers and advise here was always very direct and clear to me and I have copied, pasted and printed off all his trading hints from this forum to keep me on the profit route.





????????
  • #2,933
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:20pm Feb 20, 2007 10:20pm
Sorry to bother you guys but is there anyone who has a insight on vantage point is it pretty good???????
Quoting itme
Over the past 24 hours GBP/USD has fallen 70 pips then risen 90 pips, reaching a new high.

EUR/USD has gone only down, falling 60 pips.

USD/JPY rose 70 pips, then corrected 50% down.

USD/CHF rose 80 pips, then corrected 50% down.

USD/CAD rose 85 pips, then corrected 30% down.

  • #2,934
  • Edited 11:30pm Feb 20, 2007 10:28pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting newbietrader101
Dude, You are so far wrong on what you are saying here.
I have seen with my own eyes Jacko's trading account statements with 3 different brokers, and they are all HUGELY profitable. I have also seen with my own eyes a complete breakdown of every trade experiment in itmes Elliott Wave trade experiments which was done - and is probably still being done - by Jacko's ex-broker account guy and it is HUGELY unprofitable.
The figures i saw showed the number of winner Elliott Wave trades to be seriously under 10% and a huge NEGATIVE account balance.
That's probably why Jacko is not hanging around here any more, he told me that he was originally interested in Itmes work on Elliott Wave, but the more he read the more he lost interest,especially when Mark showed him the figures. My discussions with him lately he told me that he doesn't go to any forums any more. Its a real loss here because he is a seriously great trader and a great guy who helped me to turn my trading around and helped me become a profitable trader. I must have asked some seriously stupid questions when I talk to him but nothing hassles the guy and he is always cool and straight with me. His answers and advise here was always very direct and clear to me and I have copied, pasted and printed off all his trading hints from this forum to keep me on the profit route.
????????
The trade experiments here were never intended to constitute a profitable TRADING SYSTEM, just a series of experiments in predicting as precisely as possible the turning point of swing trends, in order to determine if this is indeed possible (contrary to popular belief), and to determine the practical limits of doing this - in terms of success rate, accuracy, and difficulty of accomplishment. The uses one might put the ability to determine the probable reversal point of a trend are many, but this knowledge could be useful in many ways in a trading system, as knowing the direction of a prevailing trend and its probable endpoint or minimum target is basic to many trading strategies.

If Jacko is a master trader with a hugely profitable trading methodology, then I would like to review the evidence and learn as much as possible about how he is able to accomplish his high returns. Would you elaborate on how profitable his trading system is, in terms of percentage returns on capital per time period, percentage of winning trades, average reward / risk ratio, risk factor, duration of trades, frequency of trading opportunities, etc. Also, what is the method he has successfully employed to make high returns on capital, and how can we verify these claims and learn the successful method that he employs. Thanks.

Note that Elliott Wave theory played a very small, or non-existent role in my initial hugely profitable 39 trades. I am a relative newbie to Elliott Wave theory, and just getting my bearings in this field. It does show great potential, but is extremely difficult to master, particularly in my case because I am analysing many currency pairs and the wave patterns are very different on different currency pairs and different time frames. My colleague who has exclusively studied only EUR/USD for two years full time has mastered the Elliott Wave counts on that pair, but would be frequently wrong if he tried to count any other currency pair.

Many of my trading experiments have failed because they are the result of highly incompetent application of Elliott Wave theory, because they were flagrantly inconsistent with my Q theory, and because of errors of application in both theories due to tiredness, sloppiness, insufficient time (hurried analysis), human error, etc.

Many, many trades were 98% correct but the entry was a little early and the stop a little too tight. This "overshoot factor" has plagued my experiments, but I continued to follow the original logic in order to build up a data set which could be examined to determine the quantitative or qualitative dimension of the "overshoot factor" which is a consistent error in the Q theory as it currently stands.

The demands of combining three massive and complex theories have overwhelmed the research, but with familiarity, skill and practise my competency in each has consistently developed. However, even with greater knowledge, skill and familiarity, I still find that it usually requires about 8 hours of intensive analysis to come up with one high quality trade formula. And after all the work, sometimes the reward : risk ratio is less than 5.0 : 1, which is a good minimum guideline criteria for my developing trade system.

I started out primarily relying on the Q theory, with which I had the greatest familiarity and knowledge, since I invented it and was in the process of developing it. Gradually my emphasis shifted to Elliott Wave theory, which I was relatively incompetent at, which degraded the performance of the experiments. Then the emphasis shifted to trading announcements for two months, which degraded the performance of the Q and EW elements of the analysis, as I learnt and familiarised myself with an entirely new set of understandings and demands. Then the emphasis shifted back to EW Theory, but with a radical new approach, so my competency went through various phases as we modified our basic methodology, which caused confusion in application for a while as a familiarity with the new model set in.

My first introduction to EW Theory came from 6 months of intensive empirical observations, from which I evolved my own theory of what the market was doing. The theory was basically correct, as it stemmed from hundreds of hours of careful observation. However, it wasn't quite correct, as new information from a more experienced elliottician came to show, so I chose to change my entire conceptal model of what the market was doing in order to improve the accuracy of my wave counting system. To do this, I had to retrain my perception, which took a few months. In some ways my original, simplified model, though technically incorrect, was more effective at coming up with the right answers, as it was based on naive assumptions that matched many real life situations. Though technically incorrect, it was nevertheless a good guideline for effective predictions because the market often behaves according to what I originally observed, and only technically conforms to the scientific theory. The distortions, which are frequent, fit my simplified model. Also, there are exceptions, which also conform to my original naive model. So in many ways my original, naive model was more effective. I still struggle with EW Theory because though technically true, the distortions and exceptions are so frequent that it is dangerous to believe too strongly in the technical theory.

Then the emphasis shifted recently to fundamental analysis and market announcement reactions, in order to learn and discover the way this fundamental "F" factor moves the market and influences and interacts with Q Theory and EW Theory. It is the influence of the Q factor and the F factor that causes so many distortions, and the occasional exceptions as well, to EW Theory. So, as my knowledge and skill developed, the trade experiments continued to have a relatively high failure rate in terms of completed successful trades due to the inefficiencies introduced by extra work and new ideas.

However, throughout the process the actual Q Theory and Elliott Wave theory, and later the "F" theory, or the understanding of how individual and cumulative news announcements influence the market have continued to prove themselves to me. This has always been extremely evident when I reviewed my trade experiments to find out why they either succeeded or failed, and always found that the theories worked, but that my application had been incorrect or I had not stuck to the theories properly.

When all theories are fully understood, skillfully applied, and properly integrated, and a sensible trading strategy developed out of this synthetic analytical model, I am confident that a highly successful trading system would eventuate. The evidence to outside observers are the occasional precise predictions of both endpoints of major trends that I have made, which were never the result of random guesses, but of careful and successful application of the Q Theory, EW Theory, and occasionally, but not often, insights derived from study of fundamentals and announcement science. The problem is that the skill level must be quite high to successfully employ the approach I am developing, and the work load is very high. Nine months of intensive research, late nights, long days and constant reading, analysing, and practise have tired me out. Frankly, I need a long holiday. My enthusiasm for signal service providers has waxed in concert with my waning energy and enthusiasm for long hours of sometimes fruitless research and analysis.
  • #2,935
  • Edited Feb 21, 2007 12:58am Feb 20, 2007 10:44pm | Edited Feb 21, 2007 12:58am
Quoting itme
The trade experiments here were never intended to constitute a profitable TRADING SYSTEM, just a series of experiments in predicting as precisely as possible the turning point of swing trends. If Jacko is a master trader with a hugely profitable trading methodology, then I would like to review the evidence and learn as much as possible about how he is able to accomplish his high returns. Would you elaborate on how profitable his trading system is, in terms of percentage returns on capital per time period, percentage of winning trades, average reward / risk ratio, risk factor, duration of trades, frequency of trading opportunities, etc. Also, what is the method he has successfully employed to make high returns on capital, and how can we verify these claims and learn the successful method that he employs. Thanks.
I cant tell you the exact figures but his
his trading system is HUGELY profitable,
in terms of percentage returns on capital per time period is VERY LARGE,
percentage of winning trades is VERY HIGH,
average reward / risk ratio is I DONT KNOW,
risk factor is I DONT KNOW,
duration of trades is ABOUT A WEEK TO 10 DAYS,
frequency of trading opportunities is ABOUT ONE OR TWO A WEEK TO 10 DAYS, etc.
Also, what is the method he has successfully employed to make high returns on capital is TREND TRADING, and
how can we verify these claims is EITHER ASK HIM OR GO TO ANOTHER FORUM - DAILYFX- WHERE I FIRST SAW HIM TRADING LIVE AS HE TRADED AND MADE ABOUT $500K IN ABOUT 8 MONTHS and
learn the successful method that he employs is IN HIS POSTS HERE AND AT THE OTHER FORUM. Thanks
  • #2,936
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:26pm Feb 20, 2007 11:26pm
All,

I know this is a bit off topic, especially considering the last few posts (hehe), but I was wondering what people use as their trading journals. I need to start one and looking for hints. What I think is hard to track is the charts, I think, just because paper must be always printed, on the other hand electronic format is sometimes not that easy to navigate.

I was also wondering how you "itme" did your EW analysis of the charts going back 30 years. I can only imagine a toilet paper like roll with wave counts on it

Krkvak
  • #2,937
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:39pm Feb 20, 2007 11:39pm
Today 12:19am
*(JP) OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: BOJ RAISES RATES BY 25 BASIS POINTS TO 0.50%; Vote 8 to 1 in favor

- Rate Hike First Since July 2006
- Lombard rate was raised to 0.75% from 0.40%
- CPI Expected To Keep Upward Trend
- Policy Decision Aims To Achieve Sustainable Growth
- Can Keep Accommodative Monetary Environment
  • #2,938
  • Edited Feb 21, 2007 1:03am Feb 20, 2007 11:49pm | Edited Feb 21, 2007 1:03am
Quoting krkvak
All,

I know this is a bit off topic, especially considering the last few posts (hehe), but I was wondering what people use as their trading journals. I need to start one and looking for hints. What I think is hard to track is the charts, I think, just because paper must be always printed, on the other hand electronic format is sometimes not that easy to navigate.
I was also wondering how you "itme" did your EW analysis of the charts going back 30 years. I can only imagine a toilet paper like roll with wave counts on it
Krkvak
I think a paper trading journal would be excellent, but I am a messy writer, and a faster typist. Also, I find it easy to copy charts using the "Print Screen" button and pasting the image into a WORD document, which could then be printed out and marked up with coloured pens and pencils, crayons, water color paints, protractors, compasses, rulers, Letrasets, etc.

I like the format offered by this electronic trade journal here, because it is easily searchable (now, again) and can include both comments and charts, as well as excerpts from other sources that can be easily cut and pasted. Also, others can be asked to comment or critique your work, which could be helpful.

My trading journal here doesn't include my charts, because I don't want to get into an endless, time consuming, fruitless, convoluted discussion with others about Elliott Wave counts, especially since I have my own personal way of counting waves, and most people are looking at EW theory in a different way than me. Also, it's too time consuming to carefully prepare charts, post them here, and then debate the interpretations and wave hypotheses. I do alot of my EW theory in my head now, after 18 months of daily practise full time. It might appear that I'm sitting transfixed in from of a chart for hours doing nothing, but in fact my eye and mind are computing like a supercomputer all the possible interpretations of all the various price patterns at three different orders of magnitude to come up with the two or three most probable wave hypotheses, the approximate probabilities that they are correct, and the strategic implications of the various wave hypotheses. It is incredibly complex work. Rarely, the patterns are simple and self-evident. But rarely.

Regarding 30 year waves, just look at a 30 year chart and do an analysis like you would any other chart pattern. Then incorporate your theories into your analysis of shorter time frames to contextualise your model of the market's movements.
  • #2,939
  • Edited 1:04am Feb 21, 2007 12:13am | Edited 1:04am
Hello,
I stumbled across your posts today and started reading into your experiment..
I'm curious about your findings, have you been successful so far? What are you basing your strategy around? I would love to hear about your results and methods...
-Dave

Hi Dave,
Thanks for your interest. Read my second to last post for the basic story. I believe that the Three Theories pretty much retroactively explain every move of the market, and can predict most of the major moves most of the time, but the problem is mostly one of practical application, in view of the difficulty and complexity of the task.

One of the problems is that the Forex is an integrated system incorporating over 20 important currency pairs, each governed independently by empirical laws and material properties. No theory that doesn't include all other currency pairs can ever be consistently correct. And exogenous factors such as news releases and world events must always be monitored second by second and correctly factored in as well.

I am now interested in simple models that can be automated to get a decent job done. My friend tells me that the Ultimate Trading Machine works very well, but I have yet to verify this allegation. Another EA a friend has developed has performed extremely well for two months, but hasn't been back tested further back. It basically automates what we are doing here in terms of trend identification but adds an automatic entry / exit strategy by individual sub-wave pulse, which is a very effective trading method.

We don't need to do 5:1 RRR trades with a 50% or better success rate, though this would produce astronomical returns. This was my original plan, which I believe I can now accomplish. But I am now too burned out to contemplate it. Thus I am exploring signal services and EA's to make money in the interim while I rest and possibly prepare for some extreme trading in the future.
  • #2,940
  • Edited 10:04pm Feb 21, 2007 12:51am | Edited 10:04pm
My last comment on GBP/JPY was made on February 16 at 14:16 ET:

"Personally, I think we're in the Fifth Wave of the C wave down, and in the fifth wave of that wave, and about to see the fifth wave of that wave down, targeting about 231.80. The current price is 232.50."

What happened subsequently is roughly as predicted. The price dropped to 232.10, 30 pips short of our lower target, then shot up 360 pips to 235.70.

Our current theory for GBP/JPY is that we were correct above and the large C Wave down is complete, and what followed is 1-2-3 of a Wave 1 up. Either that, or Wave C has only completed 1-2-extended 3-4, and the latest rise is a Wave 4 of an uncompleted downwards Wave C. Either way, the recent upwards trend has gone 1-2-3-4A-4B so far, and is now sitting at 235.19. We expect another fall to about 234.00 (Wave 4C), then a rise to about 235.90 (Wave 5), then a fall to between 232.00 and 234.00, depending on which wave hypothesis is correct.

A short opportunity may therefore present itself on a rise to about 236.00 with a completed wave structure.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

Last trade experiment:

Success for Trade Experiment #335 Sell GBP/JPY at 238.30
The target of 235.25 for Trade Experiment #335 Sell GBP/JPY at 238.30 of February 8, 2007 was met 5:00 ET on February 15, one week later. By then the conservative target would have been adjusted to 234.30, about 100 pips lower. The actual low is 233.10 so far, with one more downwards pulse expected.

p.s. - One more pulse is underway, and the recent low is 232.90. The bottom is near.

p.p.s. - The "one more pulse" finished at 232.50, which could be the ultimate low. A viable 5 wave pattern in the last downwards mid-sized wave is evident. But it could also be 1-2-3 instead of 1-2-3-4-5, which means that we will have another pulse downwards before this trend is over. We could also see a failed fifth wave, which will create a double bottom.

p.p.p.s - There was one more pulse down to a low of 232.40. This could be the ultimate low, or we could see one more wave down.

The general wave hypothesis was apparently correct.
__________________________________________________ ______
__________________________________________________ ______

Previous Trade Experiment and Prediction:

Friday February 2 at 0:00 ET

Change entry price for Trade Experiment #335 Sell GBP/JPY at 237.80 to 238.30 from 237.80.
Change stop to 239.11.
New risk is 90 pips
New reward is 246 pips
New RRR is 2.7

For research purposes only.

Wave hypothesis : Wave 5 down of a larger Wave C of an even larger Wave 4. (Traex, I see a 1-2-3 where you see 1-2-3-4-5, but it's messy!)
__________________________________________________ __
__________________________________________________ __

Previous Trade Experiment:

Thursday February 1 at 14:15 ET
As SeekingLight asserts above, GBP/JPY has seemingly completed an upwards fourth wave correction.
Trade Experiment #335 Sell GBP/JPY at 237.80
Stop is 238.26
Target is 235.25
Risk is 55 pips
Reward is min. 246 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is min. 4.5
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair
For research purposes only.

Wave hypothesis : Wave 5 down of a larger Wave C of an even larger Wave 4.
_____________________________________________

Predictions for today - Friday February 2

GBP/JPY will rise to hit our entry price on a short trade (above) of about 238.30 - 238.80. (The current price is 237.60) Actual high was 238.50, previous to NFP report, 238.79 after report.
_______________________________

Update GBP/JPY for Saturday February 3
Saturday February 3 at 2:00 ET

The current price of GBP/JPY is 238.05. It should fall to about 237.85 then rise to complete the wave 5 (at about 239.00) of the Wave C of the Wave 4 of the larger downwards Wave C of the very large downwards WAVE 4.

Then GBP/JPY will drop in a fifth wave of the C Wave approximately 465 pips from 239.00 to 234.35. "Note that my targets are approximate, conservative estimates. As we approach them the greater information available can allow us to firm up our estimates."
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