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BoJ Rate Decision and Fukui speaks at 1:30 EST

  • #61
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:05pm Feb 20, 2007 10:05pm
FFactory already update BOJ raised interest rate by 0.25 to 0.5!

Bravo FF
  • #62
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:12pm Feb 20, 2007 10:12pm
Quoting putratrg
FFactory already update BOJ raised interest rate by 0.25 to 0.5!

Brovo FF

I guess a proposal for a hike is as good as a hike
  • #63
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:20pm Feb 20, 2007 10:20pm
I might get a heart attack soon if Fukui keeps delaying like this for another few months
  • #64
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:21pm Feb 20, 2007 10:21pm
Does the BOJ have a specific time that they announce?
Like the Fed reporting ay 2:15 pm?


CarlC
  • #65
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:26pm Feb 20, 2007 10:26pm
Say BOJ does raise to .5%. What does that do to the carry trade? Will JPY crosses still be the most favorable for carry strategies? Will there be another pair lower than .5%? Will all this create short term selling but maintain long term buys?
  • #66
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:36pm Feb 20, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting CarlC
Does the BOJ have a specific time that they announce?
Like the Fed reporting ay 2:15 pm?


CarlC
01:30 AM (according to Oanda FxNews).
"Even the word impossible says that I M possible"
  • #67
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:37pm Feb 20, 2007 10:37pm
Is that Eastern time?
  • #68
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:39pm Feb 20, 2007 10:39pm
Quoting CarlC
Is that Eastern time?
Yes. (or 06:30 AM GMT)
"Even the word impossible says that I M possible"
  • #69
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:41pm Feb 20, 2007 10:41pm
If the rate does indeed go to .5%, which I think it will (I don't think Fukui would stick his neck out like this if he didn't have support), the impact on the carry trade will be minimal. I've heard a few sources say that it would take a 2% increase in rates to really put a dent in the carry trade.

Just my 2 cents.

PS. First post here, but I've been lurking around for awhile now. I've learned alot from all of you, thanks!
  • #70
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:56pm Feb 20, 2007 10:56pm
Quoting PennyJ
If the rate does indeed go to .5%, which I think it will (I don't think Fukui would stick his neck out like this if he didn't have support), the impact on the carry trade will be minimal. I've heard a few sources say that it would take a 2% increase in rates to really put a dent in the carry trade.

Just my 2 cents.

PS. First post here, but I've been lurking around for awhile now. I've learned alot from all of you, thanks!
Indeed, but I think this will trigger short-term selling preasure on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY. And we have to see how many people vote for the rate hike and read BoJ's statement though since this might be another indication for another rate hike after this meeting.

Bottomline: rate hike would create short-term selling across the board on yen pairs.

Disclaimer: no buy, hold, sell recommendation. (I don't wanna get sued voicing my opinion.)
"Even the word impossible says that I M possible"
  • #71
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:56pm Feb 20, 2007 10:56pm
I saw a glitch in TTN. I heard a horn and it did show no change in rate hike then few seconds later it change to rate hike to 0.5%. Did I just imagined this or did it happened.

Well, looks like everyone is waiting for the vote count and it might not show up soon since the Japanese goverment let it happen.

Regards,
Rick
I'm a disciplined trader and that's the only way I trade.
  • #72
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:57pm Feb 20, 2007 10:57pm
I think that's the biggest concern, the carry trade. Hedge funds that don't manage the currency side of the trade very well may unwind their positions, but otherwise I don't think there will be a rush to unwind the trade.

Otherwise .5% vs. 5% to the US rate wouldn't matter that much to the dollar.

CC
  • #73
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:08pm Feb 20, 2007 11:08pm
Quoting CarlC
I think that's the biggest concern, the carry trade. Hedge funds that don't manage the currency side of the trade very well may unwind their positions, but otherwise I don't think there will be a rush to unwind the trade.

Otherwise .5% vs. 5% to the US rate wouldn't matter that much to the dollar.

CC
Guys
My broker had a 90 pip spread on the GDPJPY and a 40 on the USDJPY. I thought I was seeing things.
  • #74
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:10pm Feb 20, 2007 11:10pm
Quoting SkYliNe0511

Bottomline: rate hike would create short-term selling across the board on yen pairs.
Agreed. So, if we do get a strong vote count toward raising rates, which would indicate further hikes, it seems to me that this will occur rather slowly, with pauses along the way. I think the Japanese economy is still fragile, and they will be careful to observe the full impact of the rate increases, especially after what happened last time they raised rates.
  • #75
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:11pm Feb 20, 2007 11:11pm
Quoting PennyJ
If the rate does indeed go to .5%, which I think it will (I don't think Fukui would stick his neck out like this if he didn't have support), the impact on the carry trade will be minimal. I've heard a few sources say that it would take a 2% increase in rates to really put a dent in the carry trade.

Just my 2 cents.

PS. First post here, but I've been lurking around for awhile now. I've learned alot from all of you, thanks!
PennyJ, you are right about this. I do not know what the big boys are thinking but, holding AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY positions for over a month now feels nice. I am not about to give that up just because of a little less interest... I am sure there are a lot who share the view. But I suppose if the boys want to push JPY up I will just have to deal with it.

I am voting the carry is still in place.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #76
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:24pm Feb 20, 2007 11:24pm
Confirm BOJ raises their overnight lending rates 0.25%, from 0.25% to 0.50%
  • #77
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:27pm Feb 20, 2007 11:27pm
So BOJ raises interest rates and jpy crosses rally. I don't get it.
  • #78
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:29pm Feb 20, 2007 11:29pm
Quoting permanentjaun
So BOJ raises interest rates and jpy crosses rally. I don't get it.
"buy on rumors sell on facts" aside from profit taking....
  • #79
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:29pm Feb 20, 2007 11:29pm
BOJ raised interest rate, so what now? long or short yen?
  • #80
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:30pm Feb 20, 2007 11:30pm
Quote
So BOJ raises interest rates and jpy crosses rally. I don't get it.

Same here


I thought this meant the currency was "worth more" hence a short move with all major */jpy crosses.
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