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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #116,481
  • Sep 22, 2008 10:46am Sep 22, 2008 10:46am
The United States of America (corporation), The federal reserve bank (corporation). It is not free money. It is not even money (its only accpeted as money). It is only a promise to pay, a debt instrument, The United States of America does intend on paying The Federal Reserve Bank (who manufacturs $100 USD bills at a cost of 3.9 cents each), with the future labor of us americans (slaves).
It may be time to get out of Egypt commrades. Nothing is free.
Live free or die, or die fighting for freedom.

Quoting Trader Neal
free bailout money for corporations courtesy of the tax payer.
  • #116,482
  • Sep 22, 2008 10:48am Sep 22, 2008 10:48am
but how far can she really go? before 1/2 the world shorts her at 197.00ish

Quoting Scrat
no... wait... this might be an irregular correction on h4, in which case it still can go down to 195/194.60 before shooting up again.
  • #116,483
  • Sep 22, 2008 10:52am Sep 22, 2008 10:52am
Not a recommendation just what I am doing. I need to do something while I am waiting for guppy to make all my shorts good. Yes believe it or not even I have shorts. And every time she hits 197.00 I am shorting her again.
And she killed me in short drawdown on friday, I am certain she will return south, just not sure when. The weekly still looks like she has some more down in her I think
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip guppyweek.zip   77 KB | 362 downloads
  • #116,484
  • Sep 22, 2008 10:57am Sep 22, 2008 10:57am
you mean up or down... now or in a couple of days...?
i don't know how far. as i said, we might see a pull down to 191/192 before another shoot up - and my targets above are 200 and then 203.8.
and then i will think about a heavy load of shorts to 178/176 area.

Quoting rrram2
but how far can she really go? before 1/2 the world shorts her at 197.00ish
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #116,485
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:00am Sep 22, 2008 11:00am
i see.
my advice is this: look for a confirmation on h4 before shorting.
i doubt 197 is the final frontier for this retracement, so you better be careful shorting it now.

Quoting rrram2
Not a recommendation just what I am doing. I need to do something while I am waiting for guppy to make all my shorts good. Yes believe it or not even I have shorts. And every time she hits 197.00 I am shorting her again.
And she killed me in short drawdown on friday, I am certain she will return south, just not sure when. The weekly still looks like she has some more down in her I think
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #116,486
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:09am Sep 22, 2008 11:09am
15 min gj chart, might not be dependable.
just for reference...
Attached Image
Lost...
  • #116,487
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:20am Sep 22, 2008 11:20am
Normally I never short guppy. But I guess I got in deep thrusday and friday
as no one leaked the news to me or I had my head in the sand and didnt see the dow going up 700 points on some bandaid bailout with funny money
the fed has been printing all year. It makes no economic sense to me. Normally I rely on the charts very heavily, but in this clear case of more maniplation even if not directly, guppy had no choice she has to go up thursday and friday. I should have known better too guppy burned me on boatload of shorts last year almost around this time I think as I kept going short short short and she went up up up to the moon. So I am straddling sadly in a tight range ATM with very little margin. SO I sure need to be careful.

Quoting Scrat
i see.
my advice is this: look for a confirmation on h4 before shorting.
i doubt 197 is the final frontier for this retracement, so you better be careful shorting it now.
  • #116,488
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:24am Sep 22, 2008 11:24am
large spikes , as the one we saw in GJ today , for no reason = money guys pulling bulls in ... wait for 1st down candle and short it ... typically it works . In this instance that was 196.80

always be wary of those spikes .. rather sit out than try and chase them
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #116,489
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:27am Sep 22, 2008 11:27am
looks more like a continuation pattern on 30 min.
just a thought.
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  • #116,490
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:37am Sep 22, 2008 11:37am
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...17golf_600.jpg
  • #116,491
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:41am Sep 22, 2008 11:41am
But what about the obvious other considerations? Like current state of economic affairs, and other correlations to the guppy. For instance it always seemed to me the guppy relatively follows the dow. And when the dow went up about 700 points thursday and friday, guppy went up about the same.
So the dow the USD is not out of the woods yet and it seems to me that the rallies on thurs and friday are more closelyt related to the news leaking of the biggest bail out in history. But no one is bailing anyone out in reality.
All they are doing is adding debt on the head of each american. It is not a real bailout (someone came from europe with french angels (gold coins from the 100 years ago)(someone came from somewhere with real money perhaos some silver). The one frb corp is merely allowing another usa corp to pay off some old unpaid debts with a bad check. So here it hard to rely on the chart when other things are blatantly obvious. The us's in the crapper.

Quoting pkimnyc
looks more like a continuation pattern on 30 min.
just a thought.
  • #116,492
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:46am Sep 22, 2008 11:46am
well, after falling from 215.80 without looking back i would think 3000 pips would be enough for a temporary stop. if you look on h4 and count the waves, you see that last push down (to 184.50) was actually the last squeeze for this move down on daily.
anyway, i know what you're going through and you can do it but you need to be very careful. if you have a hedge, don't break it unless you are sure price is going into the other direction.
patience. it will turn your way.

and again, here is a daily chart with my targets for this move up.

Quoting rrram2
Normally I never short guppy. But I guess I got in deep thrusday and friday
as no one leaked the news to me or I had my head in the sand and didnt see the dow going up 700 points on some bandaid bailout with funny money
the fed has been printing all year. It makes no economic sense to me. Normally I rely on the charts very heavily, but in this clear case of more maniplation even if not directly, guppy had no choice she has to go up thursday and friday. I should have known better too guppy burned me on boatload of shorts last year almost around this time I think as I kept going short short short and she went up up up to the moon. So I am straddling sadly in a tight range ATM with very little margin. SO I sure need to be careful.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g-jd.gif Size: 29 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #116,493
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:49am Sep 22, 2008 11:49am
you think too much. stop doing that and start following the charts.

Quoting rrram2
But what about the obvious other considerations? Like current state of economic affairs, and other correlations to the guppy. For instance it always seemed to me the guppy relatively follows the dow. And when the dow went up about 700 points thursday and friday, guppy went up about the same.
So the dow the USD is not out of the woods yet and it seems to me that the rallies on thurs and friday are more closelyt related to the news leaking of the biggest bail out in history. But no one is bailing anyone out in reality.
All they are doing is adding debt on the head of each american. It is not a real bailout (someone came from europe with french angels (gold coins from the 100 years ago)(someone came from somewhere with real money perhaos some silver). The one frb corp is merely allowing another usa corp to pay off some old unpaid debts with a bad check. So here it hard to rely on the chart when other things are blatantly obvious. The us's in the crapper.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #116,494
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:50am Sep 22, 2008 11:50am
Quoting malcolmb14
large spikes , as the one we saw in GJ today , for no reason = money guys pulling bulls in ... wait for 1st down candle and short it ... typically it works . In this instance that was 196.80

always be wary of those spikes .. rather sit out than try and chase them
What the heck is going on? .. just try to get ready to trade and saw the chart is crazy zigzaging compares to a couple of hours ago (Glad I was out for whole ordeal).
  • #116,495
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:50am Sep 22, 2008 11:50am
Quoting rrram2
But what about the obvious other considerations? Like current state of economic affairs, and other correlations to the guppy. For instance it always seemed to me the guppy relatively follows the dow. And when the dow went up about 700 points thursday and friday, guppy went up about the same.
So the dow the USD is not out of the woods yet and it seems to me that the rallies on thurs and friday are more closelyt related to the news leaking of the biggest bail out in history. But no one is bailing anyone out in reality.
All they are doing is adding debt on the head of each american. It is not a real bailout (someone came from europe with french angels (gold coins from the 100 years ago)(someone came from somewhere with real money perhaos some silver). The one frb corp is merely allowing another usa corp to pay off some old unpaid debts with a bad check. So here it hard to rely on the chart when other things are blatantly obvious. The us's in the crapper.
they will prolly package their bs, so it may sound like a bail out. market would buy that. IMO. it's just a thought.

PS. I'm not saying it will fly to the 220 area as my long term bias is still bearish. I don't know how high she will go, but she just looks like she's on the bid side @ the moment.
  • #116,496
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:53am Sep 22, 2008 11:53am
Quoting malcolmb14
large spikes , as the one we saw in GJ today , for no reason = money guys pulling bulls in ... wait for 1st down candle and short it ... typically it works . In this instance that was 196.80

always be wary of those spikes .. rather sit out than try and chase them
What the heck is going on? .. just try to get ready to trade and saw the chart is crazy zigzaging compares to a couple of hours ago (Glad I was out for whole ordeal). Now we have a bearish div on hourly and below .. same as before I left this morning .. but the 5 min is crazy, trying to shoot up ..
  • #116,497
  • Sep 22, 2008 12:00pm Sep 22, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting rrram2
But what about the obvious other considerations? Like current state of economic affairs, and other correlations to the guppy. For instance it always seemed to me the guppy relatively follows the dow. And when the dow went up about 700 points thursday and friday, guppy went up about the same.
So the dow the USD is not out of the woods yet and it seems to me that the rallies on thurs and friday are more closelyt related to the news leaking of the biggest bail out in history. But no one is bailing anyone out in reality.
All they are doing is adding debt on the head of each american. It is not a real bailout (someone came from europe with french angels (gold coins from the 100 years ago)(someone came from somewhere with real money perhaos some silver). The one frb corp is merely allowing another usa corp to pay off some old unpaid debts with a bad check. So here it hard to rely on the chart when other things are blatantly obvious. The us's in the crapper.
all true but doesn't matter. what matters is how it is perceived now. their trying to gauge if the US economy is on it's last legs and is going to collapse now or collapse later and of course a chance of some kind of recovery but right now is a critical point with banks balance sheets in big trouble.
  • #116,498
  • Sep 22, 2008 12:04pm Sep 22, 2008 12:04pm
It is having a whipsaw dance .. lol
  • #116,499
  • Sep 22, 2008 12:07pm Sep 22, 2008 12:07pm
While waiting for gbp/usd to stop playing "ring around the roses" at the 38.2 fib and set up properly for a decent longer term trade, this 5 min channel has been very profitable for quick get in/ get out trades.

However price seems more biased to the upside now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #116,500
  • Sep 22, 2008 12:14pm Sep 22, 2008 12:14pm
Quoting mktjong
What the heck is going on? .. just try to get ready to trade and saw the chart is crazy zigzaging compares to a couple of hours ago (Glad I was out for whole ordeal). Now we have a bearish div on hourly and below .. same as before I left this morning .. but the 5 min is crazy, trying to shoot up ..

going to be like this all week ...till they get everything sorted out ..

YM took a nose dive today and so far seems to be keeping its head above water at 11000

oil took off to 112....pulling gbpusd and eurusd with it.

going to be a tough one to trade ..... just take your time and take the right trades

seems to be ranging 196.20 to 196.80.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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