BoJ Rate Decision and Fukui speaks at 1:30 EST

I bet people will get their orders filled 25 to 50 pips off because they use limit/stop orders that will not be honored. HA HA i think we found a sure bet finally!!

Maybe I worded it incorrectly. What I meant is that there is strong (widespread) sentiment that a hike will inspire yen strength in the short term (say the rest of the week), I'm taking the other side of this and saying the yen will fall no matter what the BoJ says.

I know some don't like positioning into things like this and that's fine. I feel I'm taking a calculated risk; I like to embrace the volatilty.

Good luck and good trading.

roland i am not a person who thinks it is cool to go against concensus, i shoudnt have made it sound that way. im more saying that what should happen to the yen never does, so that is why i think smart play is short. also, im am not shorting and hoping for the best, i will be selling into strength when i see it, i like that much better than getting locked into a big position right away.

btw, here is my take on BOJ from G7, i think the same kind of dynamics apply to this rate announcement..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...66&postcount=7

I still think JPY gonna shoot up. I forsee a GBPJPY DEEP fall... lol

Anyway my friends at UBS are still short GBPJPY!!! And I have my two cents with them! lol

Last BOJ meeting it was expected that the rates would be increased....it didn't...

Couple of weeks ago we expected the G7 leaders to go on a Yen bashing spree regarding its low value...they didn't ......

Its highly unlikely that rates will be cut so discount that...

Market expectations are probably leaning (albeit not conclusively) a rate hike......if there is we know it will be by .25%.....

So.....all in all....i would approach a very conservative entry for shorting a Yen pair (ie going short the USD or EUR or GPY) than I would a long....

Just my pipette worth I guess!!!

Yen is going to be strong against most currency and definately worth shorting on USD/JPY

May be the pips with u ..always .

Okay Merlin I get what your saying now.. HA HA Good link and exactly what i did into the G7 meeting. One of the few times I held over a G7 weekend. I certainly agree that was against consensus and an awesome trade. I posted a similiar prediction on Oanda website before that weekend. Going agains intervention .. That was in the Market Wizards book too! Thanks for explaining your view!

Ro

great coment in a single tread,...im with u man...but i go long on europes, gold scared my ass...

Technically Sell USD/JPY Double top ..look at it .

Fundamentally Yen is going to stronger so shoot it ryt keep it simple

May be the pips be with you .. Rest Watch the outcome

Good article on Yen:
http://www.forbes.com/business/2007/...212oxford.html

I read somewhere Toyota posted an additional $150 million in profit in a recent quarter due to the weakness of the Yen. I also recently read somewhere that bond activity is high in Japan, even as rates are razor thin. There are strong forces that exist because of the interest rate climate between Yen and other currencies. But whenever they decide to pull up stakes, things will get volatile!

My personal prediction is rates wont rise. One good GDP figure isn't much for justification, and the Japanese want to keep their currencies weak because it is good for their end of global trade. If they do, I predict the Yen will strengthen (go lower in */jpy) but there is much more downward pressure on this currency because its rates are dirt cheap in general. Its a money party, selling this cheap yen and the bounty will be around until rates diverge substantially from where they are now. Interest rates and value of currency are proportional, but tonight wont be the change in general tide. If the difference in rates between the highest yielding and the yen in the majors gets 100 basis points or so closer, that is when we will start to see roaring surges in Yen (tanking usd/jpy, eur/jpy, gbp/jpy and others).

I think the current positioning of the market is in line with where the market pressures are pushing it.

Challenge your perspectives. The discussion has given me some good food for thought!

Last month's decision made for interesting market movement, tonight should bring the same.


Good luck everyone!

BOJ: consensus builder with the Government. PM Abe is in hot water with electorate. Thus my opinion is no hike but verbal intervention to throw a scare into carry trade. I will buy yen when Fuki speaks. That deal last Feb 14 for 6 to 7 hours on the GBP/JPY should mean something.

Good luck trading

Can anyone provide a site that i can go to to find out when the decision is made about a rate hike or not? Or do i just have to watch the movement of the UJ ?


thanks in advance

Should be here
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/

I wonder what the ones who are expecting a rate increase from BOJ tonight are basing their expactations on. Because, normally central banks increase rates to curb inflation, not the growth. I know growth may cause inflation if demand rises, but this is not the case at the moment in Japan. Latest figures show consumer spending increased but have a look at the latest CPI figures, only 0.1% in December which shows no danger in potential inflation increase. If BOJ increases rates today, I think it will be premature and they may curb growth well before inflation.

GAIN Capital's market commentary says that BoJ Monthly Report is out at 1 AM EST.
Could this be their official decision announcement or just some summary of their meeting? Don't the meeting minutes cover that?

No this is not the rate announcement, just the monthly summary report. The rate decision will come between 11AM EST to 1AM EST. If you use Gain Capital they will tell you about 10 min before the announcement.

BOJ RATE DECISION: EXPECTED TIME OF THE ANNOUNCEMENT
- No official time, but could drop any time after 22:00 ET
- 1/17: Decision was announced at 23:05 ET
- 12/18: Decision was announced at 22:26 ET
- 11/15: Decision was announced at 22:24 ET

anybody notice the striking double tops on USD/JPY weekly and monthly charts?

going down anyone?????????????

i may take a small short

Why has FF put .50% ALREADY? Fukui has voted to raise rates but it's not the decision yet. If they don't raise now Fukui will look pretty sad here and the Yen will get crushed.

Just another example of why you never ever straddle or enter a trade before the news. I warned many not to position before the news.. Hope they listened.... Now you have a much better entry no matter which way it goes.

Ro