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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #241
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:03am Sep 21, 2008 6:03am
Quote
Isn't it amusing how many people call themselves "an edge"???

Dang, if I ever need another forex nickname I totally know what I'm using next...
  • #242
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:04am Sep 21, 2008 6:04am
Quoting tdion
A normal person would say that their analysis is based on REASON. There was a reason to enter the trade (other than "the chart told me to do it.")

So if a rate hike happens or a terrorist attack ensues, you are trading with the rationale that the cause (whatever news broke) will EFFECT the bankers' decision to sell/buy the currency in question....

And if you are trading based on voodoo chart analysis such as Gann, Fib, Elliot, triangle breakout, 123, head and shoulders, double top, triple top, etc.... you are simply pulling the lever on a slot machine.

Good luck with that! (or.... in your terminology.... good probability with that)



PS) Getting back to the 5000 trade profitable system talked about a few posts ago.... let's say that you had collected 5,000 James16 pinbar trades with standardized take profits and stop losses..... THAT would be a nice scientific study. It would not show why the trades worked or didn't work, but it could be a nice tool to base a trading system off of. Still gambling though.... the underlying "edge" causing the pinbar inefficiency could be removed without you knowing it.

Well of course people base their trading decisions on reason, unless of course they have some uncontrollable impulse problem or unfortunate nervous tick in their right index finger.

Ah ok, so you trade on fundamentals and consider technicals are voodoo, fair enough, that's your opinion and of course you're perfectly entitled to it. Personally I don't agree, primarily I trade technicals but also take fundamentals into account although they rarely affect my trading decisions, I follow them more out of interest than anything else.

I've found that the market can often react illogically to fundamentals because the CAUSE for the numbers (which was the EFFECT on bankers to buy/sell) is often buried deep in economics and the actual cause can be extremely remote and often unclear, which is why I feel more comfortable trading definitive patterns on a chart, after all most institutional traders pay close attention to significant technical levels which CAUSE them to buy/sell, the EFFECT.

I really don't know anything about Pinocchio bars (great name though!), but like any type of analysis which helps provide an edge it's decreasing efficiency would be obvious, it's not as if one day the trader turns around to an empty trading account and suddenly realizes his edge is no longer an edge!

lol, this is a great thread, you just couldn't make some of this stuff up
  • #243
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:11am Sep 21, 2008 6:11am
Well of course you won't disagree that your technicals aren't based on SOMETHING. I mean, at least you could say "A huge bear sell happened 80% of the time historically at the 62% fib line BECAUSE enough bulls are taking their profit there." It can be quantified into some sort of logic....

Otherwise, any technical pattern can be percieved as mere random coincidence in hindsight.
  • #244
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:12am Sep 21, 2008 6:12am
You must not read Dilbert....

Quoting lostinspace
That would be me then I guess, but did you mean 'pointy headed'? Sorry, there I go again, semantics, headed, haired, close enough I guess
  • #245
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:14am Sep 21, 2008 6:14am
Quoting tdion
You must not read Dilbert....
No I haven't had that pleasure, it mustn't have been out when my Dad used to give me the comic section of his FT over breakfast. Good is it? Lots of pictures?
  • #246
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:14am Sep 21, 2008 6:14am
Quoting lostinspace
Well of course people base their trading decisions on reason, unless of course they have some uncontrollable impulse problem or unfortunate nervous tick in their right index finger.

Ah ok, so you trade on fundamentals and consider technicals are voodoo, fair enough, that's your opinion and of course you're perfectly entitled to it. Personally I don't agree, primarily I trade technicals but also take fundamentals into account although they rarely affect my trading decisions, I follow them more out of interest than anything else.

I've found that the market can often react illogically to fundamentals because the CAUSE for the numbers (which was the EFFECT on bankers to buy/sell) is often buried deep in economics and the actual cause can be extremely remote and often unclear, which is why I feel more comfortable trading definitive patterns on a chart, after all most institutional traders pay close attention to significant technical levels which CAUSE them to buy/sell, the EFFECT.

I really don't know anything about Pinocchio bars (great name though!), but like any type of analysis which helps provide an edge it's decreasing efficiency would be obvious, it's not as if one day the trader turns around to an empty trading account and suddenly realizes his edge is no longer an edge!

lol, this is a great thread, you just couldn't make some of this stuff up
What you call fundamental analysis is actually a poker game between you and the CBs.
  • #247
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:20am Sep 21, 2008 6:20am
Quoting tdion
Well of course you won't disagree that your technicals aren't based on SOMETHING.
Huh? No seriously, what?
  • #248
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:21am Sep 21, 2008 6:21am
Quoting fxterrapin
What you call fundamental analysis is actually a poker game between you and the CBs.
I agree, that's why (unlike tdion says he does) I don't base my trading decisions on them!
  • #249
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:21am Sep 21, 2008 6:21am
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  • #250
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:22am Sep 21, 2008 6:22am
I don't trade fundamentals (yet, anyway) and I never said I did.

Quoting lostinspace
I agree, that's why (unlike tdion says he does) I don't base my trade decisions on them!
  • #251
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:23am Sep 21, 2008 6:23am
Maybe you should read the second sentence after that one. Now I know why you picked your name...

Quoting lostinspace
Huh? No seriously, what?
  • #252
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:34am Sep 21, 2008 6:34am
Quoting tdion
Well of course you won't disagree that your technicals aren't based on SOMETHING.

Maybe you should read the second sentence after that one. Now I know why you picked your name...
I have, nope, it still doesn't make sense.

"Well of course you won't disagree that your technicals aren't based on SOMETHING"

You can have either "Well of course you won't agree that your technicals aren't based on SOMETHING".....or...... "Well of course you won't disagree that your technicals are based on SOMETHING". Your choice

Ok this is getting a bit silly now, you calling me names, me making a fool of you, it all seems a little pointless somehow.

Have a great day, I'm off to the local pub with my family to get Sunday lunch, it's a beautiful sunny day here sitting in the garden (isn't wifi great!)
  • #253
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:38am Sep 21, 2008 6:38am
i've found this exchange equally amusing, if not more so than you. By the way, I never called you any names.... you picked it yourself, remember?
  • #254
  • Sep 21, 2008 7:00am Sep 21, 2008 7:00am
Why do you lump 123 pattern in with the "voodoo" stuff? I can see the logical use of anchoring behind the concept.
  • #255
  • Sep 21, 2008 7:04am Sep 21, 2008 7:04am
Can you tell me why 1-2-3 works?

If so, you may have something there....
  • #256
  • Sep 21, 2008 7:07am Sep 21, 2008 7:07am
Its just a catchy way to identify potential support or resistance. Which I'm sure we all agree exists.
  • #257
  • Sep 21, 2008 7:07am Sep 21, 2008 7:07am
Quoting tdion
i've found this exchange equally amusing, if not more so than you. By the way, I never called you any names.... you picked it yourself, remember?

Oh sorry, was "pointy haired dipsh#t" supposed to be a compliment then? Amazing isn't it, different meanings each side of the pond, I asked someone in NY where I could buy some fags when I was there last year and got arrested! (fag in Europe is slang for cigarette)

Anyway, I'm sure you've found this exchange infinitely more amusing than me which kind of proves the saying "little things please little minds"? The analysis of that saying would suggest in this context that the level of amusement found in this exchange is inversely proportionate to the size of the brain. Yep, you definitely found it more amusing than me in that case!

See, and you wanted me to put you on ignore, you would have missed all this fun and amusement!


All kidding aside guys, good trading everyone if I don't get back before the open!
  • #258
  • Sep 21, 2008 7:11am Sep 21, 2008 7:11am
I hope you never come back here. Bye.
  • #259
  • Sep 21, 2008 7:24am Sep 21, 2008 7:24am
Another thread by another wash up.... Learn to trade buddy, then call it luck.. Just because any success you may have is luck based, doesn't mean everyone elses is.

Now please, do us all a favour and stop posting, you are ruined multiple threads.
  • #260
  • Sep 21, 2008 7:28am Sep 21, 2008 7:28am
I'll post whatever I want to, whenever I want to, until the moderators tell me to stop. By the way, where are your live trade calls? I'll be happy to point you to mine, where I racked up several hundred pips last year..... so you might want to watch who you call a "washup." Oh, and your last post is ruining my thread.

By the way, what does "learn to trade" mean, anyway? Nobody has been able to define that one yet...

Quoting Takisd
Now please, do us all a favour and stop posting, you are ruined multiple threads.
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