My GBPJPY trade journal

Tuesday (overnight) trade. Chart and summary

Wednesday (overnight) trades. Chart and summary

Thursday overnight trade. Chart and partial summary (unable to fit all trades summary in space below).

Hi Greg,
I always read your analyses and thank you but I am wondering where do you discuss extra stuff as you say like last evening.Is there any possibility to join you some how?

Thanks
Mike

Hello,

I host a forex group in my area (Portland, OR) one to two times a week, and share what I know. Sorry, but that is all I have time for. I share my charts and summaries here for whatever they may be worth. In essence though, I only trade the GBPJPY, and I look for 100 pips opportunites, ideally off of pivot point floors or ceiling (support/resistance).

Cheers

Monday overnight trade. Chart and summary

Monday (overnight) trades summary

Hello Greg,
Going through your thread, the set up shows a high probability system, thanks for sharing. Just wondering how you determine how many pips a trade might be worth, cos I see you trade 100+ pips probability only. What are the red flags that keep you out of potential bad trades?

Regards,

Hakins

the floor of 188 was broken last night with a bearish move down to
184.5. entered short positions at 186.3, 187.4 and 188.5 averaging
around 187.5. The breakout should bring in close to 2*ATR (~840) pip
move from the pivot pt of 190 where the buyers lost steam. Stop is at
190.5 (barely got saved this time - nearly hit it in the morning).

190-840pips=181.6 (S4) Limit to take profits.

Net profit expected - 187.5-181.6=590pips in 3-5days max.
plan to move to break even at S2 - 183.3

positivley lost 300pips/ .

found what went wrong, ignored the atr on the downward plunge.

with atr around >400pips a minimum of 200pip(atr/2) downward movement
from worst case floor level - 186.00 in this case should have been
more like 184-183.5 and below to mark it as a real breakout.

lesson learnt.

My trading strategy is to find 100+ pips setups, and trade the momentum. Ideally, I look for 100+ pips between pivot points. Otherwise I look to trade off floors or ceilings, and try to find a 100 pips target (floor or ceiling, ideally a pivot point) from my entry. I do not like to entry a trade between pivots, which I call "no-man's land," although I will if the trend and momentum are compelling, and it looks like price will continue to the ceiling or floor target.

Chart and summary.

Chart and trade summary

the strategy is using ceilings or floors (not both)
depending on the direction the currency pair is headed. guess
that needs a second look(could trade against the trend in a ranging
mkt). pivots are based on actual reversals from these
ceilings or floors when the buyer or sellers lose steam and not anything
some commentator or brokers present as their take on where they are,
which sets my pivots on hindsight. once they are set, then exits are based on 2*atr from pivot -S4 or 1.5atr -S3 (that might change if the atr changes, so S4 and S3 are treated as live numbers rather than exact points, they are recalculated with the new daily atrs until they are hit)
stops are place 1/2 atr above/below max ceiling or floors.
Multiple Entries are made within the ceiling or floor band with total summing
upto a 3% max of balance.

opportunities are anywhere from 300 to 800pips. mostly 200 to 300pips on the downside when stops are hit.

anything in between is no-man's land. still no way to fore-tell when there is a
breakout and mkt starts trending. DMI or Elliot waves may help but stop are
lossier but safer.

the good part of trading such is it's lot less stressful and bags pretty much the same gains (need
to test run it for data though).

fundamentals are in the midst of a major market manipulation
by the fed bail out of the banks and insurances.
this is not going to last but a forced breakout to
the upside. should last several weeks before it finally corrects.
works for us day-traders.

breakout over 197 = (194.5(max)+0.5*atr (500/2pips=250pips))

setting stops at 192.5(min ceiling)-250pips =190
long trades set at 191.5,193,194.5(multiple entries)

300pip risk on the down side

Charts and trade summary

GAMBLING ACCOUNT
(* A comment follows this article. Greg)

Admit it. Despite the volatility or rather because of it last week was a great time to trade. Not a great time to make money -- unless you had the reflexes of a jungle cat -- but definitely a fun time to be in the currency market. 20 rouds per day? 30? By Friday I was doing 40 and didn't even realize it. Of course when the dust settled I was up only modestly because wide spreads, sudden spikes and massive turns in sentiment created as many stopped out trades as winners. Never mind, it was a rush and I enjoyed every moment of it because I never truly put myself at risk.

Like many FX traders I have more than one account. Almost everyone who trades FX seriously, be they retail or institutional has several dealing relationships. In a deregulated, decentralized, dispersed market that's a smart thing to do. You never want to rely on only one point of exit in order to control your risk. But as retail traders we are fortunate not only to have many choices, but to trade smaller relative size. Since everyone in the currency market offers mini lots, it's easy to open a small account and experiment to your heart's content. In fact I believe it's not only easy, but also quite advantageous for retail traders to create a "gambling" account where you can go to town with your speculative capital.

What is the single biggest sin in trading aside from not using stops? No doubt it's overtrading. Yet telling an FX trader not to over trade is akin to telling a guy not to stare at a woman in a skimpy dress. We know it's impolite but few can resist the temptation. Discipline may be the key to success in trading but when it comes to human beings all of us are subject to our appetites. Eventually everyone loses control. Much beter therefore to lose it in a controlled environment.

That's why a gambling account is so vital to your trading health. The markets will always entice us to gamble. Better to do it with a small amount of money, rather than wreck your real account. Trading books are littered with examples of guys and gals who made small fortunes in the market only to give them all back in a wild overtrading binge that typically ended up in a margin call. If you are going to get blown out, do it on your gambling account.

Boris Schlossberg (and Kathy Lein)

COMMENTARY

While I found the article "GAMBLING ACCOUNT" interesting with good points to consider, I don't agree with everything the authors write. From my perspective, they tipped their hand when they said they traded 40 rounds a day. Obviously they are scalpers. It's amazing they came out at a modest profit versus significant loss, which I guess says something about their trading expertise.

Or does it? When they describe wide spreads, sudden spikes, and massive turns in sentiment, that being the environment where they were doing their 40 rounds, I can't help wonder how much Lady Luck played in their small profit. I'd say a lot. They talk about overtrading. Maybe they don't consider 40 rounds overtrading. I do.

I can't deny that there were wide spreads to contend with this week. I didn't see any of the spikes the authors are referring to, nor the sudden massive turns in market sentiment, because I wasn't trading at that time. If I'd been scalping, I'm sure I would have seen all those things.

The authors make the comment that last week's market was for the quick and nimble, i.e. "if you had the reflexes of a jungle cat." Is that true in every case? It is certainly true in every case for scalpers.

I have definitely overtraded, that is my weakness when I am off my game. When I'm on my game, I don't over trade. I'm off my game when I'm scalping. I say that any trader who scalps as a rule is overtrading. 40 rounds a day? I mean, come on.

I made seven or eight, maybe ten trades this week, and those include stop outs at breakeven entry. That doesn't make me a hero. What it says is that I traded my game, that's all, thus I didn't over trade. What it says is that I was careful about picking my spots, i.e. the highest probability opportunities, which the authors appear to suggest they know nothing about.

The wide spreads last week surprised me because I've never seen spreads like that before. As to how they affected my trading strategy, they didn't at all. If I'd been scalping, you bet, I would have taken hit after hit, as the authors obviously did. They call that fun. That's their idea of fun?

Fun, if that is even the proper word, is when I am trading well. Trading becomes fun when I thoroughly understand and test a strategy over and over, and it works in the arena. To say another way: "Fun" is when I can recognize my strategy setting up on the chart, trade it, and it works.

Here's a factoid about last week the authors don't acknowledge: there were a lot of pips opportunities, 100 pips opportunities, 200-300 pips opportunities. But the authors weren't looking for those, they were looking for scalps.

Although the article makes good points, in another way it does a disservice to the reader, especially the naive trader who assumes the authors are the sole authority and know what they are talking about. They may be an authority within their limits. But there are other views that run counter to their trading style, where you don't have to have "reflexes as quick as a jungle cat" 40 rounds a day.

As a matter of fact, a jungle cat will lie in wait a long, long time before he strikes. When he finally does, it's at the exact moment he is very, very sure of the outcome, i.e. as sure as he can be.

So, yes, let's learn to be like a jungle cat. But let's learn to really be like a jungle cat. Let us learn to wait a long, long time until we see the prey on the chart, until we see the highest probability trade with the highest probability risk/reward moving toward us.

A fact about last week was that there were a lot of traders who saw 100+ pips opportunities on the charts and traded them. There must have been -- or the results wouldn't be there for all to see. There were jungle cats out there, true jungle cats. Watch out for them.

Good trading,
Greg Wilson

exasperating,

with the prior ceiling max around 195 and with an atr around 4 to 5,
a breakout over 197 past 197.5 would have sealed a clear breakthrough
to the next range.

market just howers in no-mans land timezone after timezone.

prices just went up to 197 and retracted twice, never really moving past

the uncertianinty is kind of nerve racking...

g/u is moving up at a constant pace, u/j is oscillating.

macd is diverging upwards, forecasting a continued uptrend
but could turn back and converge. ambiguous.

a compelling need to be patient.

I learned more from your analysis than the article.

Thank you and keep it up
Mike