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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #221
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:57am Sep 21, 2008 2:57am
Quoting tdion
I think you have a different outlook on forex than I do. It is like oil and water.... it just doesn't mix. I doubt any phone chat will change that. I think more conflict is inevitable, which is a shame.... Perhaps using the ignore button on each other is the best option.

In spite of your attempts at being a knight in shining armour, picking at my ideaologies and what-not, why don't you just STOP before you respond to anything I write. Otherwise, I will bark back at you every single time.

It is inevitable.

What a shame to detract with side-shows on a good thread.

Differences of opinion are what make a market.....and a trading forum! We really can't take any of it too personally.

I'm not sure conflict is inevitable, or even necessary, maybe a more mature approach is called for where people respect other's opinions and views and appreciate the fact that no-one has the monopoly on profitable trading ideas or strategies, believe me there are some very diverse methods out there which seem to make money despite all logic!

It should be easy enough for us to express our opinions without barking though, surely.
  • #222
  • Sep 21, 2008 3:06am Sep 21, 2008 3:06am
I will bark every time at posts like these:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=139

There are a multitude of other comments you made that "get my goat," so to speak. If you choose to isolate my comments and contradict me, as in this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=166

At least preface it with "In my opinion" because that's exactly what it should weigh in as.
  • #223
  • Sep 21, 2008 3:22am Sep 21, 2008 3:22am
Quoting tdion
I will bark.....
Your choice.....
  • #224
  • Edited 3:45am Sep 21, 2008 3:26am | Edited 3:45am
Rosscub, what you call cynical and bitter, Merlin calls healthy skepticism. It is whatever you percieve me to be. I am what I am.

So my shift in perception of forex came after I spoke to a silent partner about trading a fund. I was hyping the great backtests, and not asking the key question:

 

  1. How can this thing bite me?

It is one thing to be full of enthusiasm for the potential of forex shown with demo dollars.... quite another to risk a large sum of real dollars (25K+)

So.... no rock goes unturned.... no myth of Bigfoot goes accepted at face value.... simply put, things are what they are, and I must collect facts with research. It is much like Ross Perot said in the 92 debate.... "The American people need to know what they are getting into."

My silent partner deserves to know EXACTLY what he is getting into. It's time to stop pretending that things are indestructible based on junk science, and start hitting the center of the bullseye.

Quoting Rosscub
As I recall, you were very creative and enthusiastic about the new world of trading currencies that you had discovered. Now, instead of appearing seasoned with a healthy amount of skepticism, you seem cynical and perhaps even bitter.
  • #225
  • Sep 21, 2008 3:41am Sep 21, 2008 3:41am
You couldn't do the gracious thing and apologize. You remind me a lot of itme.... he didn't last long here.

You go on believing that forex isn't based on luck. If that is true, then every trade should be a guaranteed profit. I'm sure everyone would like to see a thread in the journal section with your perfect live trade calls. It shouldn't take too long to grow a massive account, retire, and stop needing to come to pathetic threads like mine.

Quoting lostinspace
Your choice.....
  • #226
  • Sep 21, 2008 3:55am Sep 21, 2008 3:55am
Quoting tdion
You go on believing that forex isn't based on luck. If that is true, then every trade should be a guaranteed profit.
How does that follow logically? If that is your definition of luck, then everything in life is based on luck, not just trading. A doctor's diagnoses are also based on luck because one of these days he'll get it wrong. Or maybe aerospace engineering is based on luck because planes sometimes crash.

According to you, as soon as something is not guaranteed every single time, it automatically means the entire endeavour is based on luck. That's highly illogical.
  • #227
  • Sep 21, 2008 3:58am Sep 21, 2008 3:58am
Last time I checked, the opposite of something being lucky was something being guaranteed..... Backed by scientific evidence that if A, then B.

And I agree with you.... being diagnosed by a doctor correctly is a lucky thing.... it's unlucky if you are the one to get the wrong diagnosis.
  • #228
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:01am Sep 21, 2008 4:01am
So planes don't crash?
  • #229
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:06am Sep 21, 2008 4:06am


Quoting fierceman
So planes don't crash?
  • #230
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:22am Sep 21, 2008 4:22am
Quoting tdion
You couldn't do the gracious thing and apologize. You remind me a lot of itme.... he didn't last long here.

You go on believing that forex isn't based on luck. If that is true, then every trade should be a guaranteed profit. I'm sure everyone would like to see a thread in the journal section with your perfect live trade calls. It shouldn't take too long to grow a massive account, retire, and stop needing to come to pathetic threads like mine.

Lostinspace if there is no luck to trading I want to see you prove it.

show us 20 planed wins in a row. you don't even have to go live demo is fine. just show us the direction you think it's going and a price point that you think it will hit to give the win. Also you could tell us in how many bars it will take to hit you and if you think it will move against u before it hits your target......

should be easy.
  • #231
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:34am Sep 21, 2008 4:34am
Quoting tdion
You couldn't do the gracious thing and apologize. You remind me a lot of itme.... he didn't last long here.

You go on believing that forex isn't based on luck. If that is true, then every trade should be a guaranteed profit.

And so we're neatly back to the topic of your thread with the emotive title, "Admit it - your profits are based on luck"!

The fact that consistently profitable trading doesn't rely on luck does not mean that every trade should be guaranteed profit, trading is based on probabilities, not guarantees.

The outcome of a series of probabilities can be statistically analyzed. Luck can't be measured, in fact I'm not even sure luck exists does it, "luck - an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another", 'unknown phenomenon' sounds a bit too much like hocus-pocus to me and certainly not something I would rely on to decide the financial well-being of me and my family! I'm glad my wife doesn't read these forums, she'd be telling me to go out and get a real job if trading relies on luck!

I wonder what your 'silent partner' with his large sum of 25k real dollars would think of the viability to produce a decent return on his money being based solely on something as unscientific as your luck, I imagine him and his money would quite understandably run a mile!

(As far as an apology goes, what should I need to apologize for, not agreeing with you? I think this post is about the closest you're going to get to an apology, maybe you should accept it graciously!)
  • #232
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:38am Sep 21, 2008 4:38am
Quoting tdion
Last time I checked, the opposite of something being lucky was something being guaranteed
Last time I checked the opposite of lucky was unlucky
  • #233
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:39am Sep 21, 2008 4:39am
And so even the most statistically robust system, based on a 100% quantifiable probability scenario is prone to losses....

So in comes good old Monte Carlo..... a string of losses that (though highly improbable) can wipe the account clean. That is bad luck, wouldn't you agree?

I also find it infathomable that you can claim a sure fire probability (kelly criteria?) to base your money on..... when in fact you don't know the reason your trade will win or lose!

If you give me a reason, I will claim cause/effect! .... the antithesis of what you have been arguing all along.
  • #234
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:40am Sep 21, 2008 4:40am
Ah, the semantics with you. Always nit-picking.... missing the point....

Quoting lostinspace
Last time I checked the opposite of lucky was unlucky
  • #235
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:58am Sep 21, 2008 4:58am
Quoting tdion
And so even the most statistically robust system, based on a 100% quantifiable probability scenario is prone to losses....

So in comes good old Monte Carlo..... a string of losses that (though highly improbable) can wipe the account clean. That is bad luck, wouldn't you agree?

I also find it infathomable that you can claim a sure fire probability (kelly criteria?) to base your money on..... when in fact you don't know the reason your trade will win or lose!

If you give me a reason, I will claim cause/effect! .... the antithesis of what you have been arguing all along.

A string of losses would never be allowed to 'wipe the account clean', that's where money and risk management come in. No luck involved, just statistical number crunching, basic math, and good old common sense.

I absolutely know the reason why my trade won or lost, either my analysis agreed with the market or it didn't.

I'm getting a feeling of déjà vu here, I thought we'd already done cause/effect, do you really need to revisit it again?
  • #236
  • Sep 21, 2008 5:02am Sep 21, 2008 5:02am
Quoting tdion
Last time I checked, the opposite of something being lucky was something being guaranteed

Ah, the semantics with you. Always nit-picking.... missing the point....
lol, hardly semantics when someone points out that 'guaranteed' isn't actually the opposite of 'lucky', I think you'll find it's the English language which is responsible for that one
  • #237
  • Edited 5:18am Sep 21, 2008 5:05am | Edited 5:18am
A normal person would say that their analysis is based on REASON. There was a reason to enter the trade (other than "the chart told me to do it.")

So if a rate hike happens or a terrorist attack ensues, you are trading with the rationale that the cause (whatever news broke) will EFFECT the bankers' decision to sell/buy the currency in question....

And if you are trading based on voodoo chart analysis such as Gann, Fib, Elliot, triangle breakout, 123, head and shoulders, double top, triple top, etc.... you are simply pulling the lever on a slot machine.

Good luck with that! (or.... in your terminology.... good probability with that)



PS) Getting back to the 5000 trade profitable system talked about a few posts ago.... let's say that you had collected 5,000 James16 pinbar trades with standardized take profits and stop losses..... THAT would be a nice scientific study. It would not show why the trades worked or didn't work, but it could be a nice tool to base a trading system off of. Still gambling though.... the underlying "edge" causing the pinbar inefficiency could be removed without you knowing it.

Quoting lostinspace
A string of losses would never be allowed to 'wipe the account clean', that's where money and risk management come in. No luck involved, just statistical number crunching, basic math, and good old common sense.

I absolutely know the reason why my trade won or lost, either my analysis agreed with the market or it didn't.

I'm getting a feeling of déjà vu , I thought we'd already done cause/effect, do you really need to revisit it again?
  • #238
  • Sep 21, 2008 5:09am Sep 21, 2008 5:09am
Only a pointy haired dipsh#t would point that out....

back at you.

Quoting lostinspace
lol, hardly semantics when someone points out that 'guaranteed' isn't actually the opposite of 'lucky', I think you'll find it's the English language which is responsible for that one
  • #239
  • Sep 21, 2008 5:09am Sep 21, 2008 5:09am
Keep going guys (especially tdion) I love reading your opions about forex trading versus luck.

Maarten
  • #240
  • Sep 21, 2008 5:20am Sep 21, 2008 5:20am
Isn't it amusing how many people call themselves "an edge"???

So many people tell you to look in the mirror and find the Holy Grail. Not so! It is all about finding an edge (outside of yourself and your own intuition) and exploiting it....
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