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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #161
  • Sep 20, 2008 2:29pm Sep 20, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting tdion
So no matter how skilled you are..... no matter how exceptional your trading aptitude.... no matter how much experience....

you are nothing without your better half: the market.

She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.


Egotists, stop patting yourself on the back, and give the market her due when you make your profit. And by the same token, newbies don't get too down on yourself over your losses either.
Market can't dance if you break her legs....just sayin

Wait, what?
  • #162
  • Sep 20, 2008 2:31pm Sep 20, 2008 2:31pm
Quoting tdion
i didn't say how much money i lost, so how is it poor money management?

pips are pips, will. expect to lose several hundred at a time.
I was yanking your chain

If your system can handle a loss of 600 pips then that's cool. Personally I would be pissed off but our trading styles obviously differ.
  • #163
  • Sep 20, 2008 3:19pm Sep 20, 2008 3:19pm
[quote=giraia_br;2231906]Your GOAL should be to be the 5% and make 19x ROI on your money. If this is not your goal; stop reading now, and go eat some ice cream [/quote]

I can buy the AUD, diversify into a high grade corporate Bond and get 5% anytime. Try compounding your way out of the hole.
  • #164
  • Sep 20, 2008 3:32pm Sep 20, 2008 3:32pm
a 1KT vouche doesn't mean that you agree with the trading methods of the person you vouche for.

it means that you believe they have made 1000 trades. that's it.

Quoting giraia_br
but in your vouch list there are many others that uses only fibs and others that uses lunar cycles, astrology, Pitchforks, etc.
  • #165
  • Sep 20, 2008 4:05pm Sep 20, 2008 4:05pm
Quoting tdion
a 1KT vouche doesn't mean that you agree with the trading methods of the person you vouche for.

it means that you believe they have made 1000 trades. that's it.
i know, but the examples i gave i know Merling consider they as great traders or made compliments in the past, etc. Like this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=16
  • #166
  • Sep 20, 2008 4:08pm Sep 20, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting tdion
1) any system that is not based on cause/effect is luck

2) market trends can change at any time.
therefore, your probabilities change without warning.

3) take the EURUSD this past week.
my system lost 600 pips.
it had made 19,000 pips from 2001

4) large swings are acceptible if i am trading aggressively

5) pips are pips, will. expect to lose several hundred at a time.
I numbered the replies to make it easier to follow.....

tdion, you seem to have some quite novice-like opinions for someone who has been trading a while.

1) Sorry but consistently profitable trading has absolutely nothing to do with 'luck'. As someone else mentioned, trading is based on probability, skill, and sound money and risk management principles. If your success in this business relies on luck then it can't really be classified as trading. You seem very hung up on 'cause/effect', maybe you need to analyze exactly what cause and effect mean in a forex trading context.

2) A change in trend direction doesn't affect the probability of a series of trades being profitable overall. Technical and/or fundamental analysis usually give adequate warning of impending changes in market sentiment. If your 'great probability system' isn't intuitive enough to recognize changes in market conditions and volatility then it probably needs reviewing.

3) Without other statistics, the number of pips you made or lost isn't relevant.

4) Large swings are never acceptable. 'Trading aggressively' is an excuse used by novices for overleverage and poor money and risk management.

5) Just as the number of pips you make are irrelevant without other statistics, so are the number of pips you lose. Performance can only be measured by percentage returns on your investment and the risk taken to achieve those returns, pips alone mean very little.
  • #167
  • Sep 20, 2008 4:16pm Sep 20, 2008 4:16pm
i've reported you for disrespect. clearly you are here to only pick a fight with me (you don't ever respond to anyone else's posts)

the comments you isolated are a matter of philosophy.... there is no RIGHT answer, as you would have everyone believe.


i have asked you to leave this thread..... to go start your own. i have done everything i can to get you stop your instigations. now it is out of my hands.
  • #168
  • Sep 20, 2008 4:21pm Sep 20, 2008 4:21pm
Quoting tdion
i've reported you for disrespect. clearly you are here to only pick a fight with me (you don't ever respond to anyone else's posts)

the comments you isolated are a matter of philosophy.... there is no RIGHT answer, as you would have everyone believe.


i have asked you to leave this thread..... to go start your own. i have done everything i can to get you stop your instigations. now it is out of my hands.

Well I'm sorry you feel that way and that you've taken what I believe are constructive, on-topic comments as personal disrespect, they certainly weren't meant as such and I can't personally see anything that I've said is disrespectful.

Wouldn't it be better to shoot the message with healthy and constructive debate and support your opinion with logic and reason rather than shoot the messenger, I thought that's what discussion forums were all about, who knows we might both learn something and benefit.
  • #169
  • Sep 20, 2008 4:50pm Sep 20, 2008 4:50pm
i can see how #2 was misinterpretted, as it is ambiguous.

when i said "market trends" i wasn't referring to a trend up or down on a chart....

a meant it in the context of a phenomenon. IE) the trend this year is 7th graders are wearing bellbottoms.

so the point was, market conditions can change without notice, and the phenomenon that you were exploiting for profits can disappear with it.

Quoting lostinspace
2) A change in trend direction doesn't affect the probability of a series of trades being profitable overall. Technical and/or fundamental analysis usually give adequate warning of impending changes in market sentiment. If your 'great probability system' isn't intuitive enough to recognize changes in market conditions and volatility then it probably needs reviewing.
  • #170
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:19pm Sep 20, 2008 5:19pm
Quoting tdion
the trend this year is 7th graders are wearing bellbottoms.
I think I agree for the most part with tdion... although I think the luck comes into play when you're fast enough to adapt to changes and evolve accordingly..

No testing method can ever predict the future.. but I hear that for 09' there"s a whole new hype for Knickers!

Quoting merlin
...only to be rewarded with newbies attacking me because i stepped on their foolish expectations LOL.
Not all newbies attack ... please write more
  • #171
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:25pm Sep 20, 2008 5:25pm
What if I say this; after 70% of 1 hr pin bars, price reverses 20 pips?
Surely it's luck if I win the first 10 trades but after 1000 trades and winning 70%; it's a statistic, right?

I don't care what the macro trend is because I'm in the market for 15 minutes per trade and I win as much long as I win short +-5%.
It really is that easy.
  • #172
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:25pm Sep 20, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting tdion
so the point was, market conditions can change without notice, and the phenomenon that you were exploiting for profits can disappear with it.
Ok yup, I can agree with that, but do market dynamics really change so much to make a versatile trading strategy unprofitable, or untweakable at the first sign of it losing it's effectiveness?

This might not interest you but when I started out I consistently lost money for roughly the first 3 years (I'm a slow learner!). After trying every indicator known to man the penny finally dropped and I realized that profitable trading wasn't down to indicators, and that's when my trading turned around.

The market has definitely changed over the years but not enough to ruin my game plan, perhaps not using indicators that potentially lose effectiveness over time has saved me, and therefore changes in the market aren't so noticeable to my bottom line. I've got no scientific proof to go with that theory though, it's just a hunch
  • #173
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:28pm Sep 20, 2008 5:28pm
Remember in grade school when you would go to the teacher with a question and as you read the question to the teacher the answer came to you? I think it just happened to me. Haha.

If Gambling=Trading then Luck=Statistics.

I kinda thought this thread was going to have some semantical misunderstandings. Case in point; me.
It really is that easy.
  • #174
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:46pm Sep 20, 2008 5:46pm
Quoting The Fxorce

If Gambling=Trading then Luck=Statistics.

I'm thinking about that one, there's logic in there somewhere, I'll find it........
  • #175
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:55pm Sep 20, 2008 5:55pm
Quoting lostinspace
I'm thinking about that one, there's logic in there somewhere, I'll find it........
Does it makes sense?
Gamblers have good or bad luck.
Traders have good or bad trading statistics.
If luck is synonymous with expectancy then my results are totally luck.
It really is that easy.
  • #176
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:59pm Sep 20, 2008 5:59pm
Guys, really, focus your energy on other threads.

It's obvious tdion does not accept contradictory opinions and you're doing nothing but feed this pointless so called "discussion" which is basically tdion's monologue, because he doesn't care what any of you think. I don't know why he keeps opening new threads if he doesn't want real dialogue, only monologues of his. He only likes it when people say he's right.

So either tell him he's right, so that he stops all of this, or move on to other more productive discussions or just focus on making money, because that's all that matters in the end.

The fact that some guys need to make themselves feel better by blaming their insuccess on luck or lack of it does not affect with anything the people that are succesfull. If they want to cling to this, so be it, just mind your own business and focus on making the money and leave them alone. Stop feeding the trolls.

This is yet another of the many threads that provide endless banter and solve nothing that have plagued FF lately. Seriously, any smart person would know better and quit this.
  • #177
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:11pm Sep 20, 2008 6:11pm
Quoting tenantro

It's obvious tdion does not accept contradictory opinions
Ditto for you.
  • #178
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:16pm Sep 20, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting tenantro
Seriously, any smart person would know better and quit this.
Ah but here we have another dilemma. There are; according to theory, 9 types of intelligence. For trading we use logical-mathematical and visual-spatial intelligences.

It is my theory that this thread also requires a significant verbal-linguistic intelligence capacity; therefore, we are increasing the necessary brain power to make money. Logically if we eliminated all outside inputs the brain could focus it's processing capacity on charts using any type of intelligence to create an edge.

If this is true the fastest track to profits would be wiring your optic nerve to your computer's VGA output. At the same time it would behoove said trader to sever or compress the spine below C7 to retain some use of the hands as a trading interface. Ear plugs or puncturing the ear drums would be necessary. Removing the tongue and plugging the nose should suffice in creating the ultimate trading machine.
It really is that easy.
  • #179
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:29pm Sep 20, 2008 6:29pm
Quote
It is my theory that this thread also requires a significant verbal-linguistic intelligence capacity; therefore, we are increasing the necessary brain power to make money. Logically if we eliminated all outside inputs the brain could focus it's processing capacity on charts using any type of intelligence to create an edge.

Laff. Debate sharpens the mind? Agreed.
  • #180
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:37pm Sep 20, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting fxterrapin
Ditto for you.
Have I stepped on your toes recently or something? I have no idea who you are and no recollection of ever talking to you. You must be confusing me with someone else.
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