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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #81
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:35pm Sep 18, 2008 10:35pm
Quote
this is an old technique (like 30 years old!) and its prone to failure. this is addressed extensively in the market wizard books as well as fred gehms book. if you search for thousands of patterns, obviously a few good ones will pop up. but what have you done other than predict the past? if you read my article i wrote for S&C, youll see that my opinion is that you are going about this backward.

This is precisely the same argument used in Perry Kaufman's book "Smarter Trading." He goes into length about how patterns that were historically successful might only be successful because of the current trend (hence only successful because of it), and how to go about identifying whether that was the case or not.

His approach is similar to yours it seems, he starts w/ a pattern and then seeks to prove or disprove it w/ data, rather than starting w/ data and searching for patterns.
  • #82
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:03pm Sep 18, 2008 11:03pm
Quoting tdion
So no matter how skilled you are..... no matter how exceptional your trading aptitude.... no matter how much experience....

you are nothing without your better half: the market.

She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.


Egotists, stop patting yourself on the back, and give the market her due when you make your profit. And by the same token, newbies don't get too down on yourself over your losses either.
support
  • #83
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:22pm Sep 18, 2008 11:22pm
okay merlin.

unfortunately nobody on FF seems to know any premise (or even acknowledge they exist ) a man could spend his life watching markets and listening to news, and never "get it."

i think the closest thing i've seen to a premise here is darkstar's stop hunting technique, where he used news releases to predict where the liquidity would be found. i don't have details but it seems to make sense.

well my closest guess to these "real world" premises (not "the chart told me to do it") would be a domino effect after a sector/company gets effected. case and point: AIG. i could look at all companies dependent on AIG, and speculate that because they are hurting, we should soon see a ripple into the underlying subsidiaries. is that what you do?

i realize that hard work shouldn't be given away for free. but it should be fair to throw a bone to people willing to work hard, if nothing else to let them wander in the right direction with some chance of success.

i've always enjoyed your posts, merlin.

Quoting merlin
i believe in starting with a fundamental premise (which can only be derived from market experience) and then build the system based on that premise.
  • #84
  • Sep 19, 2008 12:55am Sep 19, 2008 12:55am
Quoting Rosscub

you seem cynical and perhaps even bitter. Are you angry that your world view of Forex didn't meet your expectations? What event prompted you to begin your campaign of criticism and unconstructive comments? Perhaps you feel like you are doling out "tough love," but quite honestly, most of the time you just come off as being an ass.
  • #85
  • Edited 1:14am Sep 19, 2008 1:03am | Edited 1:14am
okay i'll make a deal with you.

prove that luck isn't a part of forex trading, and i'll leave the forums forever.

hint) you can't
  • #86
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:20am Sep 19, 2008 1:20am
Quoting tdion
prove that luck isn't a part of forex trading
Wow! Come on people. Just admit that it's a part of ForEx trading.

This is a tough crowd. LOL
  • #87
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:26am Sep 19, 2008 1:26am
Tdion
When one dances with market it's not luck it is every day boring routine. Once I feel that I'm excited or anxious it is better to stop.
When trading is not boring it is coin flipping.
Good BORING trading to all...
ANd for Sure It is luck to have ability to trade boringly
it's o'k to win ...
  • #88
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:32am Sep 19, 2008 1:32am
well, it was predictable. the egomaniacs will not concede that luck is a factor in their trading. every win and loss was purely determined by them, and the market had nothing to do with it.
  • #89
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:46am Sep 19, 2008 1:46am
Quoting tdion
well, it was predictable. the egomaniacs will not concede that luck is a factor in their trading. every win and loss was purely determined by them, and the market had nothing to do with it.
You know we are buddhists by heart.
Everything is nothing.
Only my thoughts does matter.
Everything depends on me
;-)

MARKET IS UNPREDICTABLE BUT TACTICS HOW TO BE LUCKY DEPENDS ON TRADER
YOU ARE MIXING 2 RELATED BUT DIFFERENT THINGS
it's o'k to win ...
  • #90
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:53am Sep 19, 2008 1:53am
I'd say a proportion is luck, depending on how good your system or "edge" is.

50% chance of picking the direction out of thin air (up or down). 50% is then up to lady luck.

The best system or "edge" may give you a 99.9% chance of getting it right, however, no system or edge is ever 100% so that leaves 0.1% for pure luck

  • #91
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:54am Sep 19, 2008 1:54am
Quoting John_Manager
1. with concertrated effort, traders can move the market.
Okay everyone. When I say GO everyone in FF go all-in long
on E/U.

I knew that we would eventually find a sure-fire no brainer
method to instant riches. LOL
  • #92
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:55am Sep 19, 2008 1:55am
Quoting FXSurfer
Okay everyone. When I say GO everyone in FF go all-in long
on E/U.

I knew that we would eventually find a sure-fire no brainer
method to instant riches. LOL


Seriously, we should try it one day. We'll call it concerted FF intervention
  • #93
  • Sep 19, 2008 2:00am Sep 19, 2008 2:00am
In other news EU drops 300 pips...
  • #94
  • Sep 19, 2008 2:21am Sep 19, 2008 2:21am
Quoting tdion
because forex is not a true free market (too much chaos from central bankers and corporations converting funds.)
I differ in opinion on this aspect. I feel it is exactly the interference from central bankers (non-profit driven participants) that results in some portion of non-random price activity, the antithesis of chaos. Unfortunately, I don't have a shred of empirical data to back this up, so let's just call it a hunch.

Quote
I am a Computer Scientist by trade. I am very astute in pattern recognition and efficiency....The bottom line is that trading is a spectator sport to me.
Interestingly enough, I have often read that engineers have difficulty in trading partially due to the emphasis on logic/rule sets/finite environments in their respective fields. The desire to find the same rigidity in navigating an illogical, chaotic data set (the markets) doesn't mix well. At times, I suffer from this too (not an engineer, but a perfectionist in some ways). There are however, more than a few mathematicians/physicists/PhDs turned quants out there in the HF world, with anywhere up to 11 figures under their belts.
  • #95
  • Sep 19, 2008 2:30am Sep 19, 2008 2:30am
Quoting Trader KGB

There are however, more than a few mathematicians/physicists/PhDs turned quants out there in the HF world, with anywhere up to 11 figures under their belts.
The few that are left after last year's blowups.
  • #96
  • Sep 19, 2008 2:47am Sep 19, 2008 2:47am
Quoting fxterrapin
The few that are left after last year's blowups.
When Genius Failed! And there have been quite a few.

RenTech, Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Paulson & Co. still kicking it strong, I'm convinced Jim Simmons is either an android or Jesus.
  • #97
  • Sep 19, 2008 4:05am Sep 19, 2008 4:05am
Quoting Trader KGB
I differ in opinion on this aspect. I feel it is exactly the interference from central bankers (non-profit driven participants) that results in some portion of non-random price activity, the antithesis of chaos. Unfortunately, I don't have a shred of empirical data to back this up, so let's just call it a hunch.

Interestingly enough, I have often read that engineers have difficulty in trading partially due to the emphasis on logic/rule sets/finite environments in their respective fields. The desire to find the same rigidity in navigating an illogical, chaotic data set (the markets) doesn't mix well. At times, I suffer from this too (not an engineer, but a perfectionist in some ways). There are however, more than a few mathematicians/physicists/PhDs turned quants out there in the HF world, with anywhere up to 11 figures under their belts.
Thank you! It's the big trades that give us the bounce areas, they buy for weeks on end at certain levels, and cause nice support/resistance areas as well as pivotal moves. tdion is also correct of course, although I find it redundant to go around thanking your luck - any probability game will be uncertain. Saying that your chances are entirely dependent on your luck however, is not true, because that means that nobody has any predictive edge on a large scale of trades, and that is simply against the facts. If you even stipulate a tiny little 65% advantage (well, not so tiny) consistently with significant numbers of hits (like 500-1000 trades over any period) then you cannot say it was accidental. You were "lucky" every time you hit your target, yes, because it's a probability, but the edge is statistically valid with these large numbers of trades.

It is still good for a speculator's ego-control and clarity of thought to thank the stars for his good fortune. Anyway, it looks like you're getting bored tdion! Are you done with your thesis or what?
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #98
  • Sep 19, 2008 5:12am Sep 19, 2008 5:12am
Quoting tdion
okay i'll make a deal with you.

prove that luck isn't a part of forex trading, and i'll leave the forums forever.

hint) you can't
Why not just ask us to prove that every minute price movement on a chart isn't ordained by God?
Visit my journal here.
  • #99
  • Sep 19, 2008 5:49am Sep 19, 2008 5:49am
I think gambling on forex is at first stage a matter of luck we have. After some time our decisions are more acurate and luck we have is not that important. Those 5% of succesfull traders are sharks who has past this stage where luck is you profit. But by playing/gambling we learn how to make money without luck.

Good luck/trades everyone.
  • #100
  • Sep 19, 2008 6:19am Sep 19, 2008 6:19am
Quoting tdion
okay i'll make a deal with you.

prove that luck isn't a part of forex trading, and i'll leave the forums forever.

hint) you can't
You spend an inordinate amount of time on other people's opinions and views. You consistently challenge forum members to do something you want them to do, not what they want which is why no one ever responds to your challenges. Who really gives a shit what anyone thinks? Who really gives a shit what you think? No one except yourself. If you're convinced that trading is luck, then good for you. No one else gives a shit what you think...don't you see that by now. It doesn't matter if you're right or wrong, though it's quite apparent that you're very concerned with being right.

Just let it go and get on with your trading. If you make millions or lose every dime...who really gives a shit?

Just my humble thoughts for the day.
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