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BoJ Rate Decision and Fukui speaks at 1:30 EST

  • #21
  • Feb 20, 2007 9:44am Feb 20, 2007 9:44am
Quoting merlin
remember last month?? there was a leak 2 hours prior to the official release. things got pretty crazy, and i expect more of the same tonight
There must be a rate hike tonight, else I'll be eating water for the rest of my life lol
  • #22
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:07am Feb 20, 2007 10:07am
dexis are you long yen? (ie short USDJPY?)

because even if there is a hike, dont expect the yen to strengthen. not saying it wont strengthen, im just saying its not quite that simple. the BOJ is highly unpredictable and so is the price action that surrounds their decisions. during G7 i made a nice nickle on the yen doing what the market considered the exact wrong play. and tonight i (along with many others) will be looking to again fade the general concensus.
Relax and be happy.
  • #23
  • Edited 2:47pm Feb 20, 2007 10:21am | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting merlin
dexis are you long yen? (ie short USDJPY?)

because even if there is a hike, dont expect the yen to strengthen. not saying it wont strengthen, im just saying its not quite that simple. the BOJ is highly unpredictable and so is the price action that surrounds their decisions. during G7 i made a nice nickle on the yen doing what the market considered the exact wrong play. and tonight i (along with many others) will be looking to again fade the general concensus.
I will be looking to fade yen weakness tonight....
  • #24
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:36am Feb 20, 2007 10:36am
I'll tell you guys what. The BoJ raises rates the yen falls. They don't raise rates (unlikely) the yen falls a whole lot further. Same thing happened last time. Going short yen before this report is pretty much a no brainer.
  • #25
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:57am Feb 20, 2007 10:57am
Quoting faure
I'll tell you guys what. The BoJ raises rates the yen falls. They don't raise rates (unlikely) the yen falls a whole lot further. Same thing happened last time. Going short yen before this report is pretty much a no brainer.
Your playing with fire establishing a position prior to the data. Even if you are right you will likely get a poor entry price. Normally stops are ran to the up and downside prior to the data. If the BOJ raises rates you can expect a pretty big wave of cross selling. I doubt anyone will fade this move prior to hearing Fuj. speak. If he is dovish then fine fade the move. If not then i would wait several days before considering a carry trade.

Nothing is a no brainer! Trying to predict the future from past events is always a dangerous endevor. No matter what your strategy I hope its profitable. Best of luck...

Ro
  • #26
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:10am Feb 20, 2007 11:10am
Quoting faure
I'll tell you guys what. The BoJ raises rates the yen falls. They don't raise rates (unlikely) the yen falls a whole lot further. Same thing happened last time. Going short yen before this report is pretty much a no brainer.
you just summed it up better than the any pundit could
Relax and be happy.
  • #27
  • Feb 20, 2007 11:36am Feb 20, 2007 11:36am
Quoting merlin
you just summed it up better than the any pundit could
You got to be kidding about this post. No brainer??? Nothing in FX is a no brainer. Blindly shorting the yen, no matter what the news will get you crushed very quickly. Maybe i misunderstood the source of your praise.

Ro
  • #28
  • Feb 20, 2007 12:18pm Feb 20, 2007 12:18pm
why it's tentative ?
  • #29
  • Feb 20, 2007 12:35pm Feb 20, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting merlin
dexis are you long yen? (ie short USDJPY?)

because even if there is a hike, dont expect the yen to strengthen. not saying it wont strengthen, im just saying its not quite that simple. the BOJ is highly unpredictable and so is the price action that surrounds their decisions. during G7 i made a nice nickle on the yen doing what the market considered the exact wrong play. and tonight i (along with many others) will be looking to again fade the general concensus.
I am short EUR/JPY.
I really believe there will be a rate hike tonight, both from technical and fundamental point of view.

I as well believe that even if BOJ kept rates @ .25, the max point it can go (speaking of EUR/JPY) is 158.50.

It's not like I'm completely sure of this, I guess I'll have to confirm it after the announcment of the rates.
  • #30
  • Feb 20, 2007 1:43pm Feb 20, 2007 1:43pm
Quoting Rolandlc33
Your playing with fire establishing a position prior to the data. Even if you are right you will likely get a poor entry price. Normally stops are ran to the up and downside prior to the data. If the BOJ raises rates you can expect a pretty big wave of cross selling. I doubt anyone will fade this move prior to hearing Fuj. speak. If he is dovish then fine fade the move. If not then i would wait several days before considering a carry trade.

Nothing is a no brainer! Trying to predict the future from past events is always a dangerous endevor. No matter what your strategy I hope its profitable. Best of luck...

Ro
No offence or anything but you seem pretty convinced that a raise in rates will cause a substantial amount of yen buying. Why is this? (no, I'm not kidding) The raise is already priced in way, way back. Sheesh, even I know they'll raise rates by .25%, if not tomorrow then on the next meeting. In fact the surprise here is that they don't raise. The market just needs an excuse to sell yen.

I'm not blindly selling yen. The crosses are moving higher into this announcement; and it's not the little guys moving it higher. And while it might turn out that my entry price wasn't that great (ave. 233.50) I will be there to fade any yen strength.

When I said it was a no brainer I meant what I said. There are times that the market plays out so predictably it's like free money. Other times it's much harder. Sure it's dangerous but trading is dangerous.

Good luck to you too.
  • #31
  • Feb 20, 2007 2:04pm Feb 20, 2007 2:04pm
Quoting Rolandlc33
You got to be kidding about this post. No brainer???
well wouldnt take this literally. because it does takes some brains to realize shorting yen is the play to make regardless of the decision. this could of course be absolutely wrong and the yen could skyrocket tonight, but the smart play, i believe, is short.
Relax and be happy.
  • #32
  • Feb 20, 2007 2:10pm Feb 20, 2007 2:10pm
Quoting merlin
you just summed it up better than the any pundit could
Thanks for the props! Now that we've had a whole bunch of opinions thrown around, I can't wait for the annoucement. I guess it's a good thing to see sentiment on the other side of my trade.
  • #33
  • Feb 20, 2007 2:53pm Feb 20, 2007 2:53pm
Go YEN !
  • #34
  • Feb 20, 2007 3:12pm Feb 20, 2007 3:12pm
i think i am not gonna trade this, if i do it will only be in my account not my clients. i dont think its fair to GAMBLE with their money. since thats how i view this whole situation. i can just see it now, i place buy and sell orders 25-30 pips away from spot with stops behind both positions, and everything gets hit. why would i torture myself with this? ill take a wait and see attitude if anything since i dont want to give back the easy pips ive been making in GBP/USD lately. those japanese are tricky, folks. try to play poker with them. they rob you in that too.

no disrespect meant, this is actually a compliment just saying it's hard to get a read on them. which makes it difficult to plan for what they're gonna do, like in poker for example. just thought id put in that disclaimer merlin.
  • #35
  • Feb 20, 2007 3:18pm Feb 20, 2007 3:18pm
Quoting pipple
i think i am not gonna trade this, if i do it will only be in my account not my clients. i dont think its fair to GAMBLE with their money. since thats how i view this whole situation. i can just see it now, i place buy and sell orders 25-30 pips away from spot with stops behind both positions, and everything gets hit. why would i torture myself with this? ill take a wait and see attitude if anything since i dont want to give back the easy pips ive been making in GBP/USD lately. those japanese are tricky, folks. try to play poker with them. they rob you in that too.

no disrespect meant, this is actually a compliment just saying it's hard to get a read on them. which makes it difficult to plan for what they're gonna do, like in poker for example. just thought id put in that disclaimer merlin.

Right on! Having that in mind there is a chance of rates being decreased to .00
  • #36
  • Feb 20, 2007 3:48pm Feb 20, 2007 3:48pm
The only thing to do in a situation like this is either sit back and watch or take a gamble. I dont have much to gamble, so i guess i will sit and watch.
  • #37
  • Feb 20, 2007 3:52pm Feb 20, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting merlin
well wouldnt take this literally. because it does takes some brains to realize shorting yen is the play to make regardless of the decision. this could of course be absolutely wrong and the yen could skyrocket tonight, but the smart play, i believe, is short.
Yep. There is too much carry strength in these pairs.

Do you think the big boys are going to let this just walk away? Heck no. They want the yen to stay where it's at. And a 5.25/.50 interest rate does not a strong yen make.

Tokyo could raise it a point... wouldn't matter IMO.
Mr. Trend
  • #38
  • Feb 20, 2007 4:04pm Feb 20, 2007 4:04pm
Okay i have read all of your post and replies to mine. No one person is right or wrong here so we will just have to wait and see the outcome.

I do not believe a rate hike has been factored into the current price of the crosses. Therefore I believe if we go to .50 you will see massive covering of positions that were taking a gamble on rates staying flat. I think the market is still very short yen so it won't take much to create a stampede for the exit. In the long term i do believe we will have more weekness in the yen, but certainly not tonight if we get a hike with bullish remarks.

If we don't get a rate hike I think carry trades will be put back on in full force. EUR/JPY at 160 is likely and in short order. Either way im happy because i will not position prior to the data.

Lastly some think its clever to state they are going against the consensus. There is no consensus tonight and most wise people will not be holding positions into the data. If their is any consensus its that the YEN will FALL no matter what happens. So your actually following everyone else and not fading a consensus idea.

Whew okay with that said.. Honestly best of luck no matter what your strategy or plan. Hopefully we all come out of here with a pile of cash!

Ro
  • #39
  • Feb 20, 2007 4:06pm Feb 20, 2007 4:06pm
Quoting nikim
The only thing to do in a situation like this is either sit back and watch or take a gamble. I dont have much to gamble, so i guess i will sit and watch.
I'd like to see it drop to 233.50/70 before or after news. That's where my limit buy is waiting.
..and I don't consider it a gamble...
  • #40
  • Feb 20, 2007 4:07pm Feb 20, 2007 4:07pm
i bet GBPJPY and EURJPY will DROP HARD
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