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the Set and Forget Pivot Net system

  • #261
  • Sep 15, 2008 11:25pm Sep 15, 2008 11:25pm
Right O Scott. That's how she goes. No trades tonight.
  • #262
  • Sep 16, 2008 10:33pm Sep 16, 2008 10:33pm
Looks like we're going to have green lights on the EU and GU tonight.

With the market being as crazy as it was today I hope everyone kept their shirts.
  • #263
  • Sep 16, 2008 11:10pm Sep 16, 2008 11:10pm
We have two pairs that are officially green lighted for tonight.

EU
GU
  • #264
  • Sep 16, 2008 11:34pm Sep 16, 2008 11:34pm
Thanks for the daily updates blueace.
I have my orders set, all we could do now is wait and see what happens
Nick
  • #265
  • Sep 17, 2008 12:26am Sep 17, 2008 12:26am
Quoting blueace
We have two pairs that are officially green lighted for tonight.

EU
GU
Can you please post your entries for comparison purpose? I use your weekly data as official notwithstanding the slight difference from my Oanda platform.
  • #266
  • Sep 17, 2008 2:21am Sep 17, 2008 2:21am
Quoting blueace
We have two pairs that are officially green lighted for tonight.

EU
GU
thanks for the heads up.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #267
  • Sep 17, 2008 7:18am Sep 17, 2008 7:18am
One loss so far today?
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #268
  • Sep 17, 2008 11:00am Sep 17, 2008 11:00am
Yep, lost on the GU trade, and the EU never triggered, so canceled that one.

0-1 for -1% for the week thus far with one day to go. Hoping for a better day tomorrow.

Scott
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #269
  • Sep 17, 2008 11:04am Sep 17, 2008 11:04am
That's right. One loss for today on GU.

As I've mentioned before this system is not get quick rich, but rather a slow and steady gainer.

I have been sorting through all of my records and cleaning them up to provide my history of this system for this year. So far I have the results of EU and the Pivot Net starting on the week of 2/25 and ending as of last week. As I complete my histories I will post them here.

EU 2/25/08-9/12/08

29 weeks
37 days with valid signals
43 trades

28 wins
15 losses
----
I don't have the number of pips.

If you average +1.40% per winning trade and -1% per loss

Then you come out with +24.2%
  • #270
  • Sep 17, 2008 11:16am Sep 17, 2008 11:16am
Thanks for posting those, BA. I think that will help keep everyone focused and disciplined, especially during less than stellar weeks such as these last two. By the way, those are great results for just one pair.

Scott
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #271
  • Sep 17, 2008 11:18am Sep 17, 2008 11:18am
Sweet. It looks like kind of a slow system, but if for instance you can expect about the same profitability across all 5 currencies at 24%, the system is not that slow. You are talking about a possible 100% increase in your account since Feb. Not a bad return. I think it feels slow as you are only trading 3 days a week and you are not staring at your screen. Sounds good to me.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #272
  • Sep 17, 2008 11:28am Sep 17, 2008 11:28am
I did want to start posting my histories due to the slow weeks to keep everyone focused like thehenryfam said.

I know that all the pairs don't perform the same so I don't expect them to look quite as good as EU. I can tell that much just by looking over my records right now. BUT none of them are in drawdown. Of course drawdown is relative to the time you start a system.

Here's a little more info on the EU pair.

There were two instances of a double loss (same day) during that period.
No double wins.
And the most consecutive days of losses was two. That happened twice.

So there were never more than 2 losses before a win since the end of February for EU.

That's not to say it could not happen. Those are just my results.
  • #273
  • Sep 17, 2008 3:49pm Sep 17, 2008 3:49pm
no trades tonight by the looks of it.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #274
  • Sep 17, 2008 5:00pm Sep 17, 2008 5:00pm
Well if it does not say something that the Pivot Net survived this week with only a 1% drawdown then nothing will.

I've run all of my numbers for the past 30 weeks and I'm a little fried. So I'll give you an overview for now. I'll post some more specifics soon.

2-25-08 to 09-17-08

Total % gain +64.3%
Largest draw down -4.8% (the closest runner up was 3.4% then a 2.6%)
We are currently in a -1.2% slide.

Out of 30 weeks 10 weeks ended up negative. Including this current week.

I hope this keeps your spirits up. I know it helps me to look at the bigger picture anytime there is craziness going on in the market.
  • #275
  • Sep 17, 2008 5:05pm Sep 17, 2008 5:05pm
My numbers agree. Wow, only one trade this week and a loser at that. Here are the results since I've been trading live. Maybe I cursed the system by putting real dollars in it. Don't laugh -- I've had that effect on other perfectly good methods.

Week 1: -0.22%
Week 2: -1.00%

Hopefully we'll see a turnaround next week. I still have confidence in the system given Blueace's 7-month actual results. Like he says, it allows you to grow your account slowly and die even more slowly (or something like that).

Scott

Quoting hoss
no trades tonight by the looks of it.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #276
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:01am Sep 18, 2008 5:01am
can anyone help to make EA for this system? it may helpfull to backtest..
it's a nice set and forget system.
if we have EA maybe we can add some pairs to test, not only this 5 pairs.
i hope all of us can contribute to this system and increase the winning percentage...
nice system blueace...
  • #277
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:29am Sep 18, 2008 9:29am
I think if somebody wants to do an EA, they start another thread. I personally hate EA's and they mess up otherwise good threads with code and banter that I don't care to read about. I don't think a system this easy requires an EA. Just a thought.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #278
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:58am Sep 18, 2008 10:58am
Quoting budi_838
can anyone help to make EA for this system? it may helpfull to backtest..
it's a nice set and forget system.
if we have EA maybe we can add some pairs to test, not only this 5 pairs.
i hope all of us can contribute to this system and increase the winning percentage...
nice system blueace...
Thanks for joining the thread. As far as backtesting goes I've found the ST-Pivot Points very helpful. The settings are PivotSet=1 and DayStartHour=5

I have tried this system on most all of the other pairs that are available on Oanda and I have found these 5 to work the absolute best. You don't have to take my word for it, but believe me it's a lot of work to backtest it all by hand.

As far as an EA goes we had an attempt by one member, but he added some of his own rules to it and it didn't seem to get off the ground.

I'm of the same opinion as Hoss as far as simplicity goes. The system its pretty easy to set up when it comes down to it. But I would be interested to see if someone could create an EA to the exact rules and back test it for several years.
  • #279
  • Sep 18, 2008 8:19pm Sep 18, 2008 8:19pm
Based on your results posted thus far for E/U, this system has a good 14.2% edge or Kelly Value of 0.142. (and that's based on a Win Probability of 50%, where E/U has demonstrated a greater win probability of 65.1%. With a W/L at 1.4, you need a win probability of roughly greater than 46% to have a 10% edge.)

Check out this link to view an equity curve simulator:

http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

In my opinion, I'd say based on the strong fundamentals of this system (PivotPoints), the good Risk-Reward ratio, and the infrequency of trades (not overtrading), this system has good long-term viability.

Glen
  • #280
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:30pm Sep 18, 2008 10:30pm
Quoting gnllr
Based on your results posted thus far for E/U, this system has a good 14.2% edge or Kelly Value of 0.142. (and that's based on a Win Probability of 50%, where E/U has demonstrated a greater win probability of 65.1%. With a W/L at 1.4, you need a win probability of roughly greater than 46% to have a 10% edge.)

Check out this link to view an equity curve simulator:

http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

In my opinion, I'd say based on the strong fundamentals of this system (PivotPoints), the good Risk-Reward ratio, and the infrequency of trades (not overtrading), this system has good long-term viability.

Glen
Thank you for those stats Glen. Much appreciated.

Hopefully things will get back to rolling a little more consistently when the markets balance out a bit.
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