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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #21
  • Sep 18, 2008 4:47am Sep 18, 2008 4:47am
Quoting FXSurfer
But, to get back to Tdion's topic:

You put on your trade.

You exit.

In between those two actions you are
out of control. The market is in control.
This is reality. What's wrong with admitting
this? I can see a lot wrong with not admitting
it. No amount of skill can control what happens
to your position between entering and exiting.
I think that this is what Tdion is referring to.
i can't agree with that, you put on a trade base on something, if i put on a trade beacuse i saw a good set-up and it turn out to make me 100 pips that had nothing to do with the market beacuse it was going that way any way, if i loose a 100 pips who fault is that not the market, your trades are in your hands, if you don't make a good decitions you can't blame the market.
  • #22
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:32am Sep 18, 2008 5:32am
Quoting tdion
So no matter how skilled you are..... no matter how exceptional your trading aptitude.... no matter how much experience....

you are nothing without your better half: the market.

She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.


Egotists, stop patting yourself on the back, and give the market her due when you make your profit. And by the same token, newbies don't get too down on yourself over your losses either.
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Seneca
Visit my journal here.
  • #23
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:33am Sep 18, 2008 5:33am
Quoting opie999
You just made two assertions followed by a contradictory conclusion.

If your ability is based on your actions and the market disregards your actions, the only logical conclusion (based on these two assertions alone) is that making money in the market has nothing to do with your ability/action.

In other words, you're saying one makes money in the market despite one's abilities/actions not because of it. You are in fact agreeing with tdion.
Opie, this is a false syllogism and you know it.
  • #24
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:07am Sep 18, 2008 6:07am
Quoting Ted1983
Opie, this is a false syllogism and you know it.
he was way out in left field with that answer.
  • #25
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:47am Sep 18, 2008 6:47am
Quoting tdion
I'm really suprised I haven't had an outbreak of hate mail posted....

Maybe I am rubbing off on the factory
lol , i think ppl are getting used to it ... should try some other approach to this ... wat about reverse psychology ? shock them all and then strip their beliefs , come on tdion u r the creative one ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #26
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:38am Sep 18, 2008 7:38am
then why so many investment banks go bankrupt like wat we r seeing now if its not luck lol. I dont think they r newbies.
  • #27
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:45am Sep 18, 2008 7:45am
blindfold 100 people and get them to walk across the interstate.

95 will get run over, the other 5 will make it.

Quoting Prettyboy
simple as this, 95% of traders in this market don't make it because they don't know what there doing, the other 5% understand what there doing.
  • #28
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:52am Sep 18, 2008 7:52am
wow. your philosophy is completely different than mine. it's ridiculous to think that a setup somehow guarantees anything ("it was going there any way")

nobody really knows anything. that's the point of the thread.

Quoting Prettyboy
i can't agree with that, you put on a trade base on something, if i put on a trade beacuse i saw a good set-up and it turn out to make me 100 pips that had nothing to do with the market beacuse it was going that way any way, if i loose a 100 pips who fault is that not the market, your trades are in your hands, if you don't make a good decitions you can't blame the market.
  • #29
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:53am Sep 18, 2008 7:53am
well, in most cases, yeah... but what about winning a lottery? how do you prepare for that?

Quoting Rosscub
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Seneca
  • #30
  • Sep 18, 2008 8:36am Sep 18, 2008 8:36am
Quoting tdion
blindfold 100 people and get them to walk across the interstate.

95 will get run over, the other 5 will make it.

Not if it's in the UAE...they'll all die.

Tdion, just accept the fact that the human race succeeds in spite of itself.
  • #31
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:30am Sep 18, 2008 9:30am
Quoting tdion
well, in most cases, yeah... but what about winning a lottery? how do you prepare for that?
So a lottery and trading the financial markets are the same thing? Hmmm...I'm begining to see why you are so jaded.
Visit my journal here.
  • #32
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:11am Sep 18, 2008 10:11am
If trading is based on luck and 95% of traders has bad luck permanently born with them. Its a bad situation and I disagree and I dont believe in luck.

Example about trading. You may define it as luck or something else. On my birthday 16 July, a friend who is a trader called me by my phone. He is giving me a birthday present and ask me to short GbpUsd. Short GU no matter what happen. 2 months later he called me again saying he is in town and wanted to meet me. Fyi, he travels a lot. From the pictures he sent me, I believe he has been around the world or most of it. Look at GU chart on 16 July and how much it moves for the next 2 months. Is it luck or something else?

I have a different theory about trading and it has nothing to do with luck. It has everything to do with our world and how we view forex in relation with our world. Believe it or not, we are born into a square world. Everything is horizontal and vertical. We grow up seeing everything vertical and horizontal. Tv, pc monitor, doors, windows, everything. Look around you and tell me what you see. Living in a square world makes you believe and perceive everything is either vertical or horizontal.

Forex is a different world. It is not based on vertical and horizontal lines. Any indicators or system that is based on vertical or horizontal line will eventually fail. This is because we view forex as we view our world. The calculation and logic is not the same. That is why 95% of traders failed.

Unfortunately no one can be told what the world of forex is. You have to see for your self.
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  • #33
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:13am Sep 18, 2008 10:13am
Tdion,

You must be looKing for some cheap entertainment by starting this thread! Anyone who disagrees with your premise statment has to be:

1) So new they have no idea what the hell they are doing; or

2) Been around a while but have not blown enough accounts yet to now better.


I will repeat my one truism about forex:

"It is impossible to trade the markets day after day, year after year, to try and eek out a living as a day trader. You will be emlimated. It is possible to devise a short term strategy and make enough $ in the short run to not have to worry about day trading anymore."

Thanks for your efforts, tdion. I always enjoy your posts.
  • #34
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:17am Sep 18, 2008 10:17am
Quoting FX-Petra
Tdion,


I will repeat my one truism about forex:

"It is impossible to trade the markets day after day, year after year, to try and eek out a living as a day trader. You will be emlimated. It is possible to devise a short term strategy and make enough $ in the short run to not have to worry about day trading anymore."

Thanks for your efforts, tdion. I always enjoy your posts.
A good chuckle for the weeks end is always nice thx
  • #35
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:20am Sep 18, 2008 10:20am
Quoting tdion
blindfold 100 people and get them to walk across the interstate.

95 will get run over, the other 5 will make it.
you are sicker then I thought LOL
  • #36
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:33am Sep 18, 2008 10:33am
My theory is that when trading, there is no luck, there is only unluck.
So if you want to be profitable, luck is something that really you should not look for.
  • #37
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:02am Sep 18, 2008 11:02am
Strategies and plans…..even if you have them you probably will lose money. You need to be lucky in this thing. I’ve seen some guys talking about their amazing strategies which are very successful and which they are making money. I use some indicator and I have made some plans…..but luck is the most critical factor when I trade.
  • #38
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:36am Sep 18, 2008 11:36am
Quoting Ted1983
Opie, this is a false syllogism and you know it.
Well, it's sort of a false syllogism. Prettyboy's conclusion is the opposite of what his two premises would dictate.

Premise A) The trader's ability (to profit from market) is based on (his) actions, i.e. ability=action.
Premise B) The market acts regardless of trader's action, i.e. regardless of ability.
Conclusion) Profiting from the market is based on the ability (action) of the trader. (Huh????)

If premise A is true and premise B is true, then the logical (but not necessarily correct) conclusion should be "Profiting from the market is not based on the ability (action) of the trader."

I understand completely what Pb is trying to say. For me this was at first a fun little exercise in logic and semantics. Then FXSurfer made a point that is irrefutabely true -

"You put on your trade.

You exit.

In between those two actions you are out of control. The market is in control...No amount of skill can control what happens to your position between entering and exiting."

Now I'm thinking td and Pb are both correct to a point. No doubt skill and experience play crucial roles on entry and exit of trades. What happens between entry and exit is controlled by the market and pure Lady Luck.

Finally, Rosscub quoted Seneca - "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

So, from a trading perspective, we create our own luck good or bad. A skilled experienced trader will tend to have better "luck" (whatever that is) than one who is inexperienced.

Interesting thread, td.
  • #39
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:42am Sep 18, 2008 11:42am
Quoting AngelaTrix
Strategies and plans…..even if you have them you probably will lose money. You need to be lucky in this thing. I’ve seen some guys talking about their amazing strategies which are very successful and which they are making money. I use some indicator and I have made some plans…..but luck is the most critical factor when I trade.

I think if you are going to gamble like that in the market, you better go to Las Vegas and enjoy you money. There is a great technical support and great people in the market who can help you to avoid that risk. Buddy you are trading blindfold.
  • #40
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:45am Sep 18, 2008 11:45am
A while ago on here the analogy was made between poker and trading. Of course many people didn't get it and ranted about how they weren't gambling.

edit: I play a mediocre game of poker and possess mediocre market knowledge. My mediocre results in either field are testament to the analogy.
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