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Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

  • #221
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:23am Sep 18, 2008 3:23am
Quoting preneur
Hello Obaidah,

It's a long story; but not a very complicated one. I'll give you one example, and probably you have/had lived through it;

Uncontrolled/leveraged lending and fractional system (as well as it allowed huge growth since 15-20 years, it has the same effect on the other side of the stick)

Pre 2007:

1) You go to a bank/website
2) Fill out some info, doesn't have to be 100% accurate
3) Get credit you ask for
4) Spend
5) Drive prices (goods, housing, ...; inflation to summarize)
6) Never pay back/pay some of it
7) Return the bad account and the goods you bought (car/house/etc...)
8) Bank writes it down

(I know people who was given $250K-$500K loans to buy house, when their income was around $25K)

This crisis will force both entities (banks/brokers) and people to live by their means.
isn't there any motivation to let them pay back? people dont get jailed or something because of what they do?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #222
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:29am Sep 18, 2008 3:29am
Quoting Obaidah
isn't there any motivation to let them pay back? people dont get jailed or something because of what they do?

This cycle started by banks and financial entities, who borrowed cheap money, and loaned expensive money; the non payers were relatively low, and the business was highly profitable, hence banks in most countries loaned money with little to no real information.

The punishment changes from country to country; some could try to get most/all money back by confiscating all tangibles, even all non tangibles, including bank accounts. Some countries, they can't confiscate everything, but only the house/car/whatever, the borrower bought with the loan.
  • #223
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:31am Sep 18, 2008 3:31am
EUR/USD

Broke higher, there might be violent moves, heading to the channel of 1.52 - 1.61.
  • #224
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:34am Sep 18, 2008 3:34am
Quoting preneur
This cycle started by banks and financial entities, who borrowed cheap money, and loaned expensive money; the non payers were relatively low, and the business was highly profitable, hence banks in most countries loaned money with little to no real information.

The punishment changes from country to country; some could try to get most/all money back by confiscating all tangibles, even all non tangibles, including bank accounts. Some countries, they can't confiscate everything, but only the house/car/whatever, the borrower bought with the loan.
okay man, so what are you expectations for the following 2-3 months?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #225
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:40am Sep 18, 2008 3:40am
Quoting Obaidah
okay man, so what are you expectations for the following 2-3 months?
With all the actions US Treasury is taking, there has to be consequences, and its actually signaling in TBills and Notes. The USD will lose substantial value in my opinion. If the Treasury didn't do anything, and allowed the markets to correct itself, and banks to go under, USD would be gaining against majors today, but they exactly did the reverse, and continue to do the reverse.

It needs to be seen if 1.52 - 1.61 is broken; if it gives way for further USD decline, Gold would head for $1250+, oil most likely to $150+, EUR/USD to probably $1.70+...

Only 2 months left for elections, and the fate of the USD depends on the new administration.
  • #226
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:44am Sep 18, 2008 3:44am
Quoting preneur
With all the actions US Treasury is taking, there has to be consequences, and its actually signaling in TBills and Notes. The USD will lose substantial value in my opinion. If the Treasury didn't do anything, and allowed the markets to correct itself, and banks to go under, USD would be gaining against majors today, but they exactly did the reverse, and continue to do the reverse.

It needs to be seen if 1.52 - 1.61 is broken; if it gives way for further USD decline, Gold would head for $1250+, oil most likely to $150+, EUR/USD to probably $1.70+...

Only 2 months left for elections, and the fate of the USD depends on the new administration.
but given todays situation eurusd should be around 1.61 within 2 months?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #227
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:52am Sep 18, 2008 3:52am
Quoting Obaidah
but given todays situation eurusd should be around 1.61 within 2 months?

Probably not. I don't think it will go straight up. EU region has similar issues, and it should get worse over time, US financial tsunami spreading over EU. It will eventually, but not straight away. Take the volatility sparked by US officials, though, as they might force it higher every second.
  • #228
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:53am Sep 18, 2008 11:53am
Quoting preneur
GBP/USD

One random update on GBP/USD

After yesterday's powerful jump during the US session, currently consolidating inside the US highs/lows. RSI is making new lows, not supported by the price action, highly bullish sentiment.

Will continue higher as Asian and EU highs are taken away. NO bearish sentiment until sub 1.7750s are seen.

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture3.jpg
The move is continuing up, after the consolidation; US close and Asian sessions should bring fresh new highs. We'll update later after US close and potentially around the Asian session.

Strong Bullish Sentiment lingers
  • #229
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:17pm Sep 18, 2008 7:17pm
Update

The majors look to be heading for a consolidation during Asian and possibly EU sessions; GBP/USD and EUR/USD to see lower readings on Friday. Still, sentiment should remain bullish noting down the strong advance during Tuesday afternoon (US) trading.
  • #230
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:57am Sep 19, 2008 1:57am
EU Open Update

Sentiment for EUR/USD & GBP/USD is weak bullish; will turn to strong bearish below 1.4150s.
  • #231
  • Sep 19, 2008 3:05am Sep 19, 2008 3:05am
US Fed Chairman and Treasury secretary call government to bail out every institute


One more day, one more violent move, this time caused by cheers that the Uncle Ben is running to rescure all!

Government officials will hold several meetings during weekend to find a solution to illiquid markets. Let's see if this one works.
  • #232
  • Sep 19, 2008 6:59am Sep 19, 2008 6:59am
September 19 - US Open

GBP/USD

Medium bearish sentiment. No longs at least until US afternoon. Paulson to speak 10 am.

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...ep19usopen.jpg
  • #233
  • Sep 19, 2008 7:19am Sep 19, 2008 7:19am
Short selling is banned for 799 stocks in the US

Following banks in UK, US joins the bunch to ban short selling stocks until October 2nd, which to be extended then on.

Now, no actions stopping the melt down, the last resort is to ban. It would be very interesting to see if this would work. It will certainly have a major effect short term, with massive jumps in stocks on Friday; but will it save the financial markets in the long term?

To be seen...
  • #234
  • Sep 19, 2008 7:34am Sep 19, 2008 7:34am
Quoting preneur
Short selling is banned for 799 stocks in the US

Following banks in UK, US joins the bunch to ban short selling stocks until October 2nd, which to be extended then on.

Now, no actions stopping the melt down, the last resort is to ban. It would be very interesting to see if this would work. It will certainly have a major effect short term, with massive jumps in stocks on Friday; but will it save the financial markets in the long term?

To be seen...
do you use strategies for trading? or just working on fundamentals but using support and resistance to enter your trade?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #235
  • Sep 19, 2008 7:57am Sep 19, 2008 7:57am
Quoting Obaidah
do you use strategies for trading? or just working on fundamentals but using support and resistance to enter your trade?
There is no set I use; i look at the news, MAs, and the time of the day to decide whether to enter/exit a position. All are important. Trading involves extended work, and monitoring of news/price action. I believe session open and close periods are important.
  • #236
  • Sep 19, 2008 8:14am Sep 19, 2008 8:14am
Quoting preneur
There is no set I use; i look at the news, MAs, and the time of the day to decide whether to enter/exit a position. All are important. Trading involves extended work, and monitoring of news/price action. I believe session open and close periods are important.
what capital growth rate you make monthly?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #237
  • Sep 19, 2008 11:07am Sep 19, 2008 11:07am
Quoting Obaidah
what capital growth rate you make monthly?
It changes depending on the market conditions, but money management needs to be underlined.
  • #238
  • Sep 19, 2008 11:09am Sep 19, 2008 11:09am
GBP/USD & EUR/USD

GBP marched higher against USD, and strong bullish sentiment should be around for the most part of next week. The top in USD is forming, which will bring higher readings both for GBP/USD and EUR/USD, also for most majors.

Regarding, EUR/USD, the US mid session top held (1.4450s) for today, and the pair could slide towards 1.4350s and 1.43 for the rest of the US session, and early Asia. It should then continue higher.

Will publish an update...
  • #239
  • Sep 19, 2008 2:47pm Sep 19, 2008 2:47pm
September 19th, US close

GBP/USD

Very nice move, straight up during the US session. Closed 1/3 of longs at US close. Placed to buy them back above 1.8390s, in case of weekend gap.

Majors against the USD will most likely continue to trend higher, following the US Treasury bail out of the whole market, and ban of short sales. Even the USD can't handle that much burden.

See you next week

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...ncapture18.jpg
  • #240
  • Sep 19, 2008 7:30pm Sep 19, 2008 7:30pm
Quoting preneur
It changes depending on the market conditions, but money management needs to be underlined.
i actually never followed any of your trades, i didnt want to get myself into deep troubles by following talks, but after observing, man you're professional, i wonder if you can share some of the indicators you use in your trades and how you use them, how you know the trend is more likely to continue or not, the things you depend on in taking positions and finally how to know the sentiement in the market, i know .. nobody like to share everything he learned during the years as nobody can give a years of experience in few words, but im making my new strategy and looking for useful things that i could use.
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
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