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  • #1,801
  • Feb 19, 2007 8:19am Feb 19, 2007 8:19am
You could sign-up to a news service TTN text service is only $40 per month.
I learnt from other people and from just reading about the reports like CPI, PPI and Consumer Confidence.

You will start to see how they come together.
  • #1,802
  • Feb 19, 2007 11:27am Feb 19, 2007 11:27am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Pound gained almost all of its lost ground back. Unless this is just a retracement that report only lasted about 7 hours. Maybe they wanted a cheaper pound to get rid of the excess of foreign currency in their portfolios. Who knows...
  • #1,803
  • Feb 19, 2007 12:37pm Feb 19, 2007 12:37pm
More like a over reaction to a comment they didn't read the entire report when i got through it I saw it was not that bad.

Who can blame them though 106 pages is a fair bit to read with an itchy trigger finger.

Anyway as mentioned in the other thread I saw this retrace coming and jumped in a long. got out almost at the top 1.9527 I think. Easy trading today bagged over 400 pips.

The other problem with this forum is so called experts giving their advice I was shocked when I saw people saying short the pound after the big move down. I can only imagine a first month trader with his $2000 account entering and blowing a quarter just like that.

That up trend was in your face screaming at you, fundamentals said it, techs said it and general market sentiment + common sense said it.

But there has got to be people in short to pay out my money for the long...
  • #1,804
  • Feb 19, 2007 1:22pm Feb 19, 2007 1:22pm
bank of england announcement today 10.15 london time
Hi there , did anyone see this announcement on a screen at all. I looked at the bank of england website and it was there but that was after cable had dropped 90 pips . Was there a calendar time for this on the website , because I couldnt see it ( the scheduled time ) and non of the forex calendars including forexfactory had it noted . So what do you do if you are long ?? Its bad enough getting it wrong through figures p or announcements , its another thing if you dont know they are due to be released ! thoughts please on this would be appreciated .

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #1,805
  • Feb 19, 2007 1:34pm Feb 19, 2007 1:34pm
here are a few threads where we discussed some news trading fundamentals, may help you to read Ricardo.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=11099
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=9128

man this parliment testimony caught a lot of people off gaurd. FF obviously didnt have it covered beforehand, and i dont think anyone else did either, so the big move is not surprising. groov, where did you get word of the report?
Relax and be happy.
  • #1,806
  • Feb 19, 2007 2:32pm Feb 19, 2007 2:32pm
"When trading forex we must consider all key factors, the technical, the fundamental and the sentiment before we enter a trade. Itīs a circle. The forex market is technically driven in the absence of news. After a news release the market estimates the value of the news and immediately adjusts the price. After this news adjusted price level the technicals reassert themselves and dominate trading until the next important news is released."

That says Jimmy Young, and I of course.
The trend is your friend, unless itīs about to end Thomas DeMark
  • #1,807
  • Feb 19, 2007 4:04pm Feb 19, 2007 4:04pm
Good call on your retrace to the 1.9534 area. I'm looking at a possible retest of 1.9429 area and or a retest of the 1.9565 area before this pair decides where to go. Since the daily is closing below its open today I am still leaning SHORT however I will not enter any positions until Frankfurt or London open. Any opinions?
Show me the PIPS!
  • #1,808
  • Feb 19, 2007 4:25pm Feb 19, 2007 4:25pm
Here are the daily levels for 2-20. On a short term basis until (if) we move above the 9550/9608 area I would not be long. I am still flat this pair on a short term basis. I need to see resolution of this area. If we continue to build value by trading below 9550 area, then we may trade down to 9303. I am still going to watch thru tonights London session.

The 60M chart for the Asian session follows:



http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-20-2007.PNG

Asian session levels

If we move above 9552, I would look for 9602-9608 where I would definitely cover. If we continue to trade below the 9552 level, I think we may see 9446. I will update early tommorrow morning with the new 60M River levels.

Good luck, sorry not much help here.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-20-2007.PNG
  • #1,809
  • Feb 19, 2007 4:47pm Feb 19, 2007 4:47pm
me and a few friends trade together we look out for each other I got a phone call telling me to get ready for a bumpy ride and I reacted.
  • #1,810
  • Feb 20, 2007 6:27am Feb 20, 2007 6:27am
Good morning. I am still flat on this pair. My conviction is not strong enough to get short.

Here are today's levels. 9552 River (changes daily) continues to be my guide here. We are trading below this level, so longs are not valid for me. I would need up through River and Transistion to get long. If we move below 9456 then we could target the 9303 level. We I would likely set up longs also.

Good luck. I am still watching this for now.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr...BPUSD_2-20.PNG
  • #1,811
  • Feb 20, 2007 7:06am Feb 20, 2007 7:06am
DRT,

Can you please explain how you came up with this bounce level aqnalysis based on your charts below? good call

thanks

Quoting DownRiverTrader
Nice call on this one tathlynq

Here are todays daily levels. Stay short below 9549. I would cover into 9303 if we do continue to move down. I will post the 60M River levels below to get a better look.

I am still flat on this one.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-19-2007.PNG

Here is the 60 minute chart. The magenta levels change every 60M and the current key level is around 1.9429. Looks like the low. If this area holds, we may move back up near the 9534 area. Below here looks like a move down to the 9303 area.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-19-2007.PNG
  • #1,812
  • Feb 20, 2007 7:39am Feb 20, 2007 7:39am
I have tried to explain the method I use in my journal posts. I added a link in the signature section to help explain the post. If you haven't read thru this, you should take the time to do it. It will help you understand.
  • #1,813
  • Feb 20, 2007 7:47am Feb 20, 2007 7:47am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
I have tried to explain the method I use in my journal posts. I added a link in the signature section to help explain the post. If you haven't read thru this, you should take the time to do it. It will help you understand.
I have been reading all your posts with great interest. I just wanted you to explain above call given that you have a good example. I did personally trade it this bounce but never expected to get that far, so I bailed out at 9500s. Your call was right on and I was currious how you came up with this level. I do not believe that in any of your posts that has been explained.

Thanks a lot
  • #1,814
  • Feb 20, 2007 7:50am Feb 20, 2007 7:50am
Hello DRT,

What are your thoughts on correlartion.
That is, suppose you are seeing that EURUSD is going up but your GBPUSD is kinda pointing down. Would you be hesitant since they seem to move in the same direction more or less?
  • #1,815
  • Feb 20, 2007 7:55am Feb 20, 2007 7:55am
At the time of this post, the 9534 area was the River level on the 60 minute chart. This is where I saw the bounce heading.

One thing I would like to point out is that on a 60M chart my (magenta colored) levels change every hour. If volatility is low, then they will not fluctuate too much. The issue with the GBPUSD is that it is like a wild animal and almost always volatile. It is not possible for me to keep this pair updated on a regular basis for short term traders. I can post the daily levels which I will try to keep updated.
  • #1,816
  • Feb 20, 2007 8:01am Feb 20, 2007 8:01am
This is a good question and a difficult one to answer. My response based on the method I am posting is to follow value areas and not worry about what is correlated and what is not. Don't burden yourself with this. It is not necessary. Focus on reading what you know to be.. which is price. It is giving you the answer you seek.

I have seen days recently when sterling is down 100 ticks and EURUSD is unchanged or slightly up. Haven't you also seen this?

Quoting irusoh
Hello DRT,

What are your thoughts on correlartion.
That is, suppose you are seeing that EURUSD is going up but your GBPUSD is kinda pointing down. Would you be hesitant since they seem to move in the same direction more or less?
  • #1,817
  • Feb 20, 2007 8:27am Feb 20, 2007 8:27am
Yes, Indeed
  • #1,818
  • Feb 20, 2007 9:38am Feb 20, 2007 9:38am
I had a minute, so I thought an hourly update was in order. She is testing the River level now, stay nimble. A move into this area is important.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-20-2007.PNG
  • #1,819
  • Feb 20, 2007 6:35pm Feb 20, 2007 6:35pm
Here are the Wednesday levels for sterling. I am flat this pair.

As we suspected, trade did in fact move up to test the River level in the NA session on Tuesday. Aggressive traders could set up shorts around the 9565 area(todays River level) with a risk just above 9610+area. A move down would target 9446 then 9303. I am not comfortable getting short just yet although the setup appears valid.

A move up through the 9608 area and I would establish fresh longs with a risk area just below the magenta River area. Longs would target 9783 abd then 9958.

Good luck and be nimble.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-12-2007.PNG
  • #1,820
  • Feb 20, 2007 8:10pm Feb 20, 2007 8:10pm
Something that could be interesting in cable. In 15 mins chart.
The infamous inverted head and shoulder ? Now, I'm bullish.
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