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Why do indicators not work/work? Why is Forex not truly random? 129 replies

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Why Indicators will fail you

  • #101
  • Sep 17, 2008 5:36pm Sep 17, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting hanover
Earret, I don't know if the following is what you mean by "advanced", but in this post (see "Candlestick Patterns" section), you'll find links to the best free candlestick analysis I've found thus far on the web.

Hope this helps,

David
Hanover

Thanks...just what I was looking for
  • #102
  • Sep 17, 2008 5:59pm Sep 17, 2008 5:59pm
Quoting techtrader10
I'm not here to criticize your technique, that's not my job. I'm saying not to condemn indicators or people who use them. They serve the purpose they were intended to if people use them wrong then it is not the indicators fault. I too am consistent and make a profit weekly I congratulate you. I have always felt that we are not here to bicker or cast dispersions on each other, we ARE here to help the new people swim in our ocean. If you want to help these guys (and gals) then show them your trading style so they can see the difference. Some of these people probably don't even know what we're talking about. So, no, I won't pick it apart but I might ask a few questions that new people may not know to ask or maybe point some things out to you. Guys like us need to helping people to find what works for them and give them options not hindering them. If posting your style will help give them options I'm all for it.

im cool with that man
  • #103
  • Sep 17, 2008 6:07pm Sep 17, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting eagle4x
Engulfing Candles

http://www.tradingcurrencyonline.com/images/jap_5.jpg


I guess this four hour candle on e/j was an engulfing bearsih candle ah eagle.


I want peace in this thread, but seriously it just makes me laugh sometimes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bearish candle.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #104
  • Sep 17, 2008 7:18pm Sep 17, 2008 7:18pm
That's great your're making money. I have been demo trading over 3 years now and during that time still haven't decided on a strategy before going live. I got burned on stock options during the tech bubble 7 years ago and got so fed up with it, I migrated over to forex mainly in order to do something different, as I love trading. I just decided I wouldn't go live until I educated myself better and find and/or develop a strategy I deemed would be profitable. I feel I'm educated up to my ears, but I think I'll be there soon. Trading live will be the "real" education. There were a lot of lessons learned from my stock option days that can be applied to forex, even though it's not exactly the same.

I used to believe exactly as you that fibs were a bunch of bull, but I have read extensively about them and I feel there is merit to them. I think most any system can be traded successfully utilizing good money management. Right now, I'm looking at break-outs. Got started on this from reading the recent NY breakout strategy in this forum, but I will not be doing it exactly the same way. I made over 500p today trying it out, and I'm excited about it, but the strategy needs more work. Maybe I just got luck today due to the huge drop in the dollar - only time will tell.



Quoting steelhead
Tech good post. I never claimed to know it all. I get stopped out of trades just like the rest of you. What I will say without hesitation is I am consistant in this market every month. I have losing trades but when the end of the month comes I am in profit. that is what everyone should strive for.


Do you really want me to get into my trading style? I can if you want but it won't help you. You will just critisize it and try to poke holes in it.
  • #105
  • Sep 17, 2008 8:32pm Sep 17, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting JohnW
Steelhead -

Right on, baby!!

I tried every indicator out there. When I threw them all out the window and focused on price action, that is when my trading turned around. I now get over 10% per month consistently, and I have done so for the last 15 months.

Trading systems based on indicators alone is how con artists extract money from wannabe traders. This is not an opinion, it is a fact. Believe it or learn it the hard way like I did.

This is not to say that indicators have no value. They are wonderful for quickly summarizing what has happened in the past. I use MA's just for that purpose. But all my entries and exits are based soley on price action tempered by fundamentals.

Oh, and by the way, the most useful indicator I have found after 4 years of trading is ATR. ATR will tell me if I have enough room to trade.

JohnW
Hi john,

what does your price action method entail... i.e. what does price action mean to you?
  • #106
  • Sep 17, 2008 8:39pm Sep 17, 2008 8:39pm
indicators only = failure
indicators + price action = success
indicators + price action + experience =
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #107
  • Sep 17, 2008 8:44pm Sep 17, 2008 8:44pm
Quoting Infinity
indicators only = failure
indicators + price action = success
indicators + price action + experience =

excellent post infinity
  • #108
  • Sep 17, 2008 8:48pm Sep 17, 2008 8:48pm
Quoting steelhead
excellent post infinity
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #109
  • Sep 17, 2008 9:11pm Sep 17, 2008 9:11pm
did you retire to jamecia and are trading forex there?

you somke weed there?

my name is IndoFear

I bought a house and the price action on that is great

omly what i make off that in poistive income in a year
you senoir members probably make in a few days


hahahaha.
  • #110
  • Sep 17, 2008 9:41pm Sep 17, 2008 9:41pm
Quoting Infinity
indicators only = failure
indicators + price action = success
indicators + price action + experience =
Uh.....you forgot this final post:

indicators + price action + experience + =

lol
  • #111
  • Sep 18, 2008 12:48am Sep 18, 2008 12:48am
Quoting clockwork71
Uh.....you forgot this final post:

indicators + price action + experience + ....

lol
indicators + price action + experience + + =

= http://img26.picoodle.com/data/img26...mm_4354145.gif
  • #112
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:35am Sep 18, 2008 1:35am
Quoting steelhead
Last week I didnt have one till thursday. Then from thursday to close i had two trades that went for over 500 pips apiece.

Post your chart set-up from last week about trading against the trend.
  • #113
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:27pm Sep 18, 2008 11:27pm
Quoting forextrend
Post your chart set-up from last week about trading against the trend.

I will soon. What makes you so sure i was trading against the trend though.

On a side note eagle and i are cool.

what up eagle
  • #114
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:19am Sep 19, 2008 1:19am
Quoting FXoffshore
Really?

You advocate going against the trend?

Or picking tops and bottoms?

I would like to hear how you do that?
(apart from picking trades from yesterdays charts)


Steelo tried this with a number of pairs that moved thousands of pips in the opposite direction

EU, he called up all the way down to 1.40. Aussie he called up from 95. Cable he was calling up throughout its entire move down. AJ, same again.

No kidding, if you did the opposite of his calls you would have banked over 5000 pips



I now have a new system, it's called do the opposite of steelo

Eagle is right, everything on your chart is an INDICATOR, bars, candles, trend lines, fibs, RSI, stochastics, macd, elliot wave etc... etc... etc...

EVERYTHING IS DERIVED FROM PAST PRICES

Indicators are useless when you do not know what they're measuring.

TRADING WITHOUT ANY INDICATORS WOULD GIVE YOU A BLANK/EMPTY CHART

JUST GO WITH WHATEVER FLOATS (OR PAYS FOR) YOUR BOAT
  • #115
  • Sep 19, 2008 6:20am Sep 19, 2008 6:20am
While I still believe indicators are usefull tools, Steelhead gave me more info. about his strategy and actually it is very good after he explained it in more detail. He is trading for a living and making good money, which is more than I can say for myself.
  • #116
  • Sep 19, 2008 6:37am Sep 19, 2008 6:37am
Quoting NuckingFuts


Steelo tried this with a number of pairs that moved thousands of pips in the opposite direction

EU, he called up all the way down to 1.40. Aussie he called up from 95. Cable he was calling up throughout its entire move down. AJ, same again.

No kidding, if you did the opposite of his calls you would have banked over 5000 pips



I now have a new system, it's called do the opposite of steelo

Eagle is right, everything on your chart is an INDICATOR, bars, candles, trend lines, fibs, RSI, stochastics, macd, elliot wave etc... etc... etc...

EVERYTHING IS DERIVED FROM PAST PRICES

Indicators are useless when you do not know what they're measuring.

TRADING WITHOUT ANY INDICATORS WOULD GIVE YOU A BLANK/EMPTY CHART

JUST GO WITH WHATEVER FLOATS (OR PAYS FOR) YOUR BOAT


Good ole futs. I made money trading those pairs to the longside nice try though. Keep assuming that you know what my trades are. I dont need to go into it with you just know that i made money the whole time. Keep slapping those ten pips though noble work you are doing
  • #117
  • Sep 19, 2008 7:30am Sep 19, 2008 7:30am
Would you or Steelhead care to share with us the strategy?



Quoting eagle4x
While I still believe indicators are usefull tools, Steelhead gave me more info. about his strategy and actually it is very good after he explained it in more detail. He is trading for a living and making good money, which is more than I can say for myself.
  • #118
  • Sep 19, 2008 6:28pm Sep 19, 2008 6:28pm
Quoting steelhead
Good ole futs. I made money trading those pairs to the longside nice try though. Keep assuming that you know what my trades are. I dont need to go into it with you just know that i made money the whole time. Keep slapping those ten pips though noble work you are doing


You made money the whole time slapping your 20 pip longs in a bear market

Sure, I'll scalp my 10 pips in a 10-15 pip ranging market before NFP, if I'm not fishing that is.

I'll also take take the 2000 from EU, 1200 from cable, 1500 from EJ, 2000 from geppy, all in the past 2-3 months going with the bear run

I find it amusing that you still cannot explain exactly why technical indicators are useless, and you're supposed to be a pro
  • #119
  • Sep 19, 2008 6:38pm Sep 19, 2008 6:38pm
Quoting SeaPip
Would you or Steelhead care to share with us the strategy?
From what I gather it's counter trend trading, if the market is moving up, sell, if the market is moving down, then buy

-5000 pips and counting in the recent bear run
  • #120
  • Sep 19, 2008 7:52pm Sep 19, 2008 7:52pm
Why are people so unkind?
Good Trading
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