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Trade Plans by EG

  • #21
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:48am Feb 18, 2007 7:48am
Here I will also let out my thoughts......


Hi All..

I have been suffering continued losses on my trades just because I have failed to stick to my own rules.

Anyway, I am just going to write a few things here just to let out my thoughts. Comments would be very welcome. Opinions too and constructive criticism would be appreciated.


What I am going to write on is my thoughts on GBPUSD Movement based on Elliott Wave Analysis and a number of other indicators I use basically Stochastics of Steviets System, Sidus’ EMA5 and 12 Cross, RMI from Bagovino’s Thread, CCI, Channel, and Price Action ( Chart patterns ).

Yes it looks like it is a lot of Indicators to look at. But I do this to get confirmation from each analysis I make from each indicator. Sort of filterting almost everything before pulling the trigger.

I have been trying to do this on various pairs. But now I will focus on just the GBPUSD Pair. I am letting go of my other favorite pairs too which are the AUDUSD and the EURUSD.

I definitely am NOT an Elliott Wave Expert. I try to read up on various threads here on forex factory and consult other sites. And below would be a synthesis of all the information I gathered including my own thoughts.


Looking at my chart now. My GBP is at 1.9501 level.

My Stochastics ( I meant Steviets Stochastics ) indicate that this is moving up based on a 30m, 60m and 240 Chart. And so does the RMI. The EMA5 and 12 too have crossed and are moving up. This is the reason that I would agree with all of the people at FF that I follow in their threads re the Elliott Wave Count. People like the Great itme ( with those GREAT thoughts and insights ), Northpro and fixme1too. I also look into thoughts by Monarch, pdhawan and Lenny.

All foresee a move up with varying degrees. They are probably ALL Correct.

Some I believe think that Big Wave B down finished at 1.9400 and have finished
Wave 1 up of a Big Wave C up at 1.9676
Wave 2 down of a Big Wave C up at 1.9466

And now have started with a Wave 3 up to the 1.9700- 1.9800 Range.
Then a Wave 4 down to probably 1.9550 level.
Before Topping it off with a wave 5 up to the Range of 1.9900 to 2.0100.


An alternative scenario will be that this Big Wave B down for me is not yet finished.
If my Technical Indicators continue to show a move up beyond the 1.9550/1.9600 then I will cancel alternative scenario below.
However if I see signs that things are going down again, then ….

I would agree with itme’s thinking that this Wave down is not yet finished at 1.9400.

To me then , this is probably just the end of Wave 3 down for the Small wave c down of a zigzag Big Wave B down. Wave 4 up for this Wave B down is probably going to 1.9555-80 level or up to the 1.9750 level.
That would depend on what the technical indicators tell me.
Later, we would probably see the Wave 5 down to the Range of 1.9330-40. But itme’s TP is at 1.9400 from a Short Trade from 1.9640.


Here I believe would be the start of the Big Wave C up probably reaching the 1.9900 to 2.0100/50 Range.. Note that Wave C up should be a 5 wave pattern.


Scenarios for the Alternative Analysis ( for the UNFINISHED Wave B Down )

 

  1. if Endpoint of Wave 5 down is at 1.9330-40

Fibo Levels Wave 5 of a Wave C up would be
61.8 - 1.9744
78.6 - 1.9855
100 - 2.000

 

  1. if endpoint is @ 1.9400 then TP at following levels are possible

61.8 - 1.9805
78.6 - 1.9927
100 - 2.0100/150

Now I am at the Crossroads

If I enter a position now and Trade Long which ultimately is the Objective

  1. I can ride to the Profits up to 1.9800 or Higher based on the 1st Scenario.
  2. However if the trade follows the Alternative Scenario which is this Wave B down is not yet complete…. I would have to place my SL down to 1.9300 which is about 200 pips.

Looking at what I am willing to Risk right now which is USD250 on my LIVE Account,

 

  1. I could actually put everything in or maybe USD200 and leave USD50 just to leave something in my account. That is of course considering that I will need at least a 200pip SL at least ( But I would normally have 250 SL for my GBPUSD Long Term Trades with my broker. )
  2. If the waves move

    1. against my LONG Trade at 1.9501 and fall as low as 1.9300, then I am still supposed to be on the CLEAR and just ride my way back up from down below and finish the Wave C up. I could probably put in my remaining USD50 for a LONG Trade to 1.9350 – 1.9400 ( Inclusive of my 250 SL of course ).
    2. Up and reach the 1.9550 / 19600 area , then I can exit at probably 1.9530 at the least for a small profit or make break even at 1.9501. probably at least take in some profits at 1.9520 on a downward move.

I could sit it out till it hits the bottom or I can ride down with the trend and Exit at 1.9400 or lower.
If I ride it down, Then I enter a new Long Trade upon exit of my Short Trade.

There you go.
EG

  • #22
  • Edited 9:57am Feb 18, 2007 9:37am | Edited 9:57am
Let us look at 3 Great Minds using Elliott Wave Theory in part or wholey for their Analysis on Cable.

Itme thinks that cable is going up to 1.9555 before the wave 5 down of an extended wave 3 down. Which to me would look like this week we will be seeing Cable go up for Itme's corrective wave 4 up and side ways after that wave 3 down (extended).

Northpro in post # 334 says, "major move on cable next week" Could that be this week? hmmmmm. His Trade 42 which was a long from 1.9477 to 1.9694 was stopped out but was manually closed at a profit of 100 pips at 1.9577. Great Guy. Watches his trades well. Now I am waiting for his re - evaluation of cable Position.

FiXMe1Too in his latest posts thinks Cable moving up to 1.9900. I hope to get an invitation to his webinar tonight. But he also says major moves on Cable next week. I suppose that is either this week or the real next week. Looking at the time component, it is still possible to interpret it as a minor move up now and still go down lower than where we start with this week , Then as he thinks........ it is UP UP AND AWAY for CABLE..

So Guys and Gals ....... this would be an interesting move on the cable to watch how it really would workout.

I hope these 3 Great Minds would not mind me trying to synthesize their thoughts in this post. I am willing to be corrected if I have interpreted your posts wrongly. If I did get it wrong, I apologize this early then.

EG
  • #23
  • Feb 18, 2007 10:15am Feb 18, 2007 10:15am
Send me your email and I will send you an invite


Quoting el grande
Let us look at 3 Great Minds using Elliott Wave Theory in part or wholey for their Analysis on Cable.

Itme thinks that cable is going up to 1.9555 before the wave 5 down of an extended wave 3 down. Which to me would look like this week we will be seeing Cable go up for Itme's corrective wave 4 up and side ways after that wave 3 down (extended).

Northpro in post # 334 says, "major move on cable next week" Could that be this week? hmmmmm. His Trade 42 which was a long from 1.9477 to 1.9694 was stopped out but was manually closed at a profit of 100 pips at 1.9577. Great Guy. Watches his trades well. Now I am waiting for his re - evaluation of cable Position.

FiXMe1Too in his latest posts thinks Cable moving up to 1.9900. I hope to get an invitation to his webinar tonight. But he also says major moves on Cable next week. I suppose that is either this week or the real next week. Looking at the time component, it is still possible to interpret it as a minor move up now and still go down lower than where we start with this week , Then as he thinks........ it is UP UP AND AWAY for CABLE..

So Guys and Gals ....... this would be an interesting move on the cable to watch how it really would workout.

I hope these 3 Great Minds would not mind me trying to synthesize their thoughts in this post. I am willing to be corrected if I have interpreted your posts wrongly. If I did get it wrong, I apologize this early then.

EG
  • #24
  • Feb 18, 2007 12:04pm Feb 18, 2007 12:04pm
I would like to look at how waves would do in the short Term basis while arriving on my long term trade objective.

Let us see if we can see where turns would probably be made.

I'd say that in the short term we

Place a Long Trade to 1.9551 from 1.9501

I would probably see Cable moving up to
1.9535
1.9541
1.9551

That is about as close as I could get to Itme's opinion that it will move up to 1.9555.

When I do exit my trade at a maximum of 1.9551,

I look forward to placing a Short Trade at any of those levels and have a TP objective at the following areas.....

1.9400
1.9350
1.9300
could come down to up to 1.9290 though

But while I exit at any of those levels above, I would be able to afford placing the Much Awaited Long Trade for that Wave C up which is a 5 Wave move. By then , I can join FiXMe1Too's Cable Ride UP UP and AWAY.......

All thoughts above are based on my assumptions after reading on other's thoughts and working around a number of Technical indicators and Chart Patterns.

EG
  • #25
  • Edited 11:58pm Feb 18, 2007 7:22pm | Edited 11:58pm
Ok. That was a long night for me last night as I stayed up till the early morning trying to think of this GBPUSD Trade and while waiting for an invitation from FiXMe1ToO's webinar. Anyway, Thank you FiXMe for that invitation. It was indeed a very enlightening session with you. I hope to get my next invitation to your webinar again.

On with the Journal. So I went to get some sleep after that webinar with already a Plan to place a LONG Trade on the Cable Targeting 1.9535, 1.9541 or 1.9551....... But when I got up to my Charts this morning ( Cause my broker opens at 2200 GMT ..... I see a GAP. This was not in any of the scenarios I was looking forward to. So I did some review as to what this Chart Pattern would indicate.

First, as I understand it now..... GAPS would be like BREAKAWAYS and are Good when the VOLUME is HIGH when it occurs as it could mean a continuing trend. But checking on the Volume on the 1 Hour chart , there was just 183 value the compared to the 235 from last Friday's Weekender. That made me re-assess my plan to go Long. Besides, They say that GAPS are like Vacuum that need to be filled.


Secondly, on the 1 hour, I believe I see a symmetrical triangle (bullish)..... However, when you look at the chart again, it seems that it has alread attained the Point 5 in the Bullish EPA Range and that is way above the Trend line formed by points 1-3. Therefore, I would be inclined to think that it is ready to come down now.

Third, going back to my previous Post were I placed my targets for the supposed long trades I was going to make when my Broker opens, I see that I have attained my objective, at 1.9535 Up to 1.9541.

That Candlestick right after the Gap had the following values on my Chart
O 1.9541
H 1.9541
L 1.9518
C 1.9523

Fourth, looking at the Technical indicators, my 5m was already moving down while the 30m , 60m and 240m were just about ripe to go down too. This was when I decided to Place my Trade.

I then Entered a SHORT Trade for just my USD50 (inclusive of a 250 SL) at 1.9528. Spread of 7 and a forward trade cost of -1pip. for a Total of 8Pips.

Now it is time to watch my Charts again. Based on my Plan last night, below would be TP targets
1.9400
1.9350
1.9300

But I will need to keep a close watch on this as the Great Minds are looking at 1.9500 or Lower like 1.9480.

My own analysis is looking at lower than 1.9300 that is why I am targetting 2 more levels up and initial target as per plan is 1.9400. Note that I intend to adjust my TP as I see fit trying to capture even just a few Pips Profit. I would be more concerned on Riding the Wave Up.

Bottomline, I am setting my TP at 1.9500. If this vacuum which the GAP has created in the market needs to be filled, the it ought to come back to the level we closed at last Friday. That should still be more likely to achieve if I am not around my computer. I could then just decide to sit it out later if it continues to go down. but if it does come up without me being around, I can wait for an opportune time to get on the ride UP later.

EG
  • #26
  • Feb 19, 2007 1:05am Feb 19, 2007 1:05am
I am not grumbling but just rumbling on thinking aloud trying to tell myself what my Charts are telling me now and my indcators plus what ever is happening on the market.

Ok... the GAP that occurred on the Cable at Market Open.
I would say there was a number of traders who saw this Gap as a continuation of the move up. Although it went down by almost 30 pips again from its peak, those who saw it get back down are releived to have that opportunity to ride the wave up from a lower position again although not as low as before the GAP.

With these thoughts in mind, we will probably be seeing alot of traders holding on to LONG trades and watching their SL being eaten up. Ok. friends...... I mean no offence to anybody who has taken a Long Trade on the cable. These are just my thoughts on why I still should maintain my Short Position here.

But Price action on the Charts have already told us early this morning that we are supposed to come down. This initially I thought would be at 1.9500. Why? you may ask , How did I come to that assumption? I explained above .
1st was there was not enough volume to cause that Price Gap. And with this scenario.... The GAP caused a vacuum that needed to be filled. That is why the choice to set TP at 1.9500 first.
2nd is that this looked like a symmetrical triangle with the #5 over shooting the trendline 1-3.So it has to come down now. Price accomplisshing Price target levels based on Symmetrical Triangle formations would normally have like 100% or more of the Triangle's height as Short Trade TP Range target.And ....
3rd is that it has reached my 2nd initial target of 1.9541 (reached 1.9548 I think on my chart..... although with others it has reached as high as 1.9560 overshooting my 3rd target.)
4th... my indicators were telling me so.

Now... we have seen Cable move up again to or higher than the high of the firsat candle after the GAP. Right now, I would still think that Price is revisiting that High and would be getting ready for a larger move down and beyond 1.9500. There should be more traders selling as we near the 1.9500 level pushing price lower and lower looking toward 1.9400 and 1.9350.

I am wondering if there is anywhere out there where Trends are explained thru aspects as it is affected by Fundamentals, Technicals, Price Action and Possible Market sentiments. And explained and related to Theories such as the Elliot Wave Theory and Chart Patterns.

I have tried a signal provider before . But got so frustrated as I got stopped out most of the time and I was helpless not knowing what or why these things happened.

In my quest for knowledge and profitability in FOREX Trading, I have to be able to answer the basic questions like who , what , where, when, why and how.

Who affects the market and the price and who can help me be a better trader?
What factors cause these price movements?
Where do I get additional indformation to help me analyze the market?
When do I Enter or Exit a Trade to be Profitable?
Why do these Peaks and Dips Occur?

How do all the factors derived from above questions affect the price and the market?

I have to be able to answer these questions, That way I will have a better idea of where I stand in terms of my trading potential. Best would be to have as many scenarios laid out before me.

Let us say, it would look like a flow chart where alternative scenarios are provided with the possible explanations. This way, I would have more confidence in making my trades.

I know I use too many indicators and concern my self with too many factors. The Gurus would say, to keep your charts clean. Trade on Price Action. At this point, I am not a Guru yet nor will I ever be one. I need to build my confidence. Hopefully someday I would like to be able to just look at a clean piece of chart and be able to explain all the factors that cause these price movements and be able to look into the future of where the Price will be in a few hours, days , weeks or months probably.....

Yeah.... Such BIG DREAMS. But they can be REALITY when we do work on them.

I have to correct myself now regarding my info above on Volume.

I forgot that from where I am and with the IBFX Platform I am using, my Mondays here actually have 2 candles on the chart that is why I have very low values for Volume. However, I would assume that volume should not be that much today as US is on a HOLIDAY. Registerin less than 2000 combined for the 2 candles now compared to 9000+ last Friday and 13000+ Thursday, 11000+ Wednesday.

So I maintain my View of taking this Short Trade.

As I type this Post, I have just placed another short trade at 1.9546 less 8pips for my spread and forward cost. Note that I am not putting all my money yet. Still left 40% on my account. Trade placed still included a 250 SL. TP @ 1.9450

Let us see what happens when London Market Opens.

EG
  • #27
  • Feb 19, 2007 1:20am Feb 19, 2007 1:20am
Trade #1
GBPUSD
Enter SHORT 1.9528
SL 250
TP 1.9500

Trade #2
GBPUSD
Enter SHORT 1.9545
SL 250
TP 1.9400 note that I have adjusted this now . Hoping for a nice trade on the London Open.
  • #28
  • Feb 19, 2007 2:43am Feb 19, 2007 2:43am
Closed @ 1.9536. missed to close at 1.9521 for what could have been almost double what I got now when I closed it.

Trade #2
GBPUSD
Enter SHORT 1.9545
SL 250
TP 1.9400

P/L = + 9 i/o 24

Trade #3
GBPUSD
Enter LONG 1.9523
SL 250
TP 1.9400

Closed at 1.9518
P/L = 5 pips

*Note that Profit Levels are actual Profits where the broker's spread and forward costs have already been deducted. So these are Net Pips.

I did not think I would deviate so much from my Process as I still left Trade #1 as is and TP at 1.9400.

I was only toying with money alloted for Trade#2

Trade #4
Long GBPUSD @ 1.9521
TP - Open
SL 250

Why did I close what I closed????... I was testing my indicators and my Chart Pattern Analysis on the 5m TF.

Price getting very active.

Trade #5
Short GBPUSD @ 1.9504 to continue with the Ride down
TP 1.9400
SL 250
  • #29
  • Feb 19, 2007 5:25am Feb 19, 2007 5:25am
Total 90 Pips

You will notice that I did not post my Trade #5 when I Placed it. I was watching the Charts tight and thing swere happening quite fast and I did not have time to post.

Now on with the trades. I have closed all my Short Trades even if Price has not reached the 1.9400 TP target. It is really nice to think of the initial numbers I was looking at and what my indicators were showing me.

But thru those long string of losses of what could have been even small profits turning into GRIM Losses..... They have taught me valuable lesson on GREED.

Plus the fact that there was this sudden plunge in the price........ with hours and hours of watching these things happen over and over again.... one would get the feel in his gut to stay content with even small profits. Though the 90 pips I got this afternoon is not really that small considering that I was going in and out of my trades trying to maximize profits at every turn.

Man..... I really have to agree with the seasoned traders to stay put and trade the longer time frames. Unless one is there to just Scalp. Even then, if we have a better understanding of Price Action and EW theory with a lot of practice on Chart patterns and candlestick formation we should fair well. But it is a TALL task to muster all that strength to handle everything....

The Trade I entered at 1.9545 alone couild have netted me 95pips on that single trade. Instead I just got a total of 62 and considering all that STRESS I went thru jumping in and out of the trade trying to be GREEDY again.

Anyway, closing my short trades early made me miss about 25 pips x 2 trades = 50. I really do not mind now I got my 90 in the bag.

I have already placed my 2 LONG trades
#6 1.9449 and
#7 1.9453

SL at 250 each
TP will first set at 1.9550 each
Attached Image
  • #30
  • Feb 19, 2007 6:09am Feb 19, 2007 6:09am
Trade #1 - I let it run while I had trades #2 #3 and #5 SHORTS on the in and out experiment of catching each Price Turn.

Trade #4 was a test of placing a LONG Trade even before reaching the 1.9500 level which was Previous initial TP Level. Closed it after getting back to breakeven from a negative 20 pips I think.

I was watching the 1m Chart but was scanning 5m, 15m, 30m, 60m and 240m also at intervals just to have a visual on how my indicators were moving along.

That was when I saw the gap downwards on the 1m chart. Then I looked at the volume which was suddenly up..... I used to exit at the base when the CS starts to stall as this normally looks like it would retrace after that long plunge after reaching 1.9480. But I refrained from doing so because of the lesson on volume and gaps I learned this morning from my readings.

But when it reached 1.9450 and scanning the different TF fast, I felt I was already fine with that so I close the 2 trades and entered my Long Trades.

I was hoping to get even just 1 positive pip on that Trade #4 Long . But looking at the indicators and the slowness of my broker to reflect price changes, I decided to just get out at Breakeven. Lucky for me it was just about the time it started to plunge down. I guess in time, one starts to get a feel of timing when to pull the triggers based on what you see on the chart and indicators. Note that it has to be what you see in different time frames .

I was tentatively contemplating on placing another Short Trade there But I refrained as I wanted to maintain some funds available on hand and not put eveerything out at once. It would still have been additional pips though.

But heck.... that was already fine. I was after the main trend UP anyway.

EG
  • #31
  • Feb 19, 2007 11:56pm Feb 19, 2007 11:56pm
This morning when I checked on my trades, I found an opportunity to Trade Intraday. So I placed a trade at 2300 GMT right before I went out to bring my son to school and visit some clients. So I was in a hurry I was not able to post my trade.

Trade #8
Day Trade Long @ 1.9518
90pips SL because that was just what I could afford on my account.

5 hours later , I got back to my computer and found it at 1.9544.

I was ecstatic about it that I let it go and went to have lunch with my family. An hour later I checked again and to my disbelief I was at 1.9531. Frustrated and in panic..... I closed it. I was not ready to stay on my computer to analyze my trade yet so I closed that intraday trade.

I left my forward trade on from yesterday. It was only the inraday trade which I closed.

Trade #8
Day Trade Long @ 1.9518
Closed @ 1.9531

entered a new trade at

Trade #9
Day Trade Long @ 1.9538
SL 100
TP 1.9600 or above to 1.9620 will be watching my charts if there is a need to TP earlier.

Again, this is a lesson not to jump in and out unless one is not sure of where the trade is going in the short term. And also... you do this if you are desperate and impatient to book your profits. That was me a few minutes back as I was not sure I could really sit down and watch and analyze my charts now.

EG
  • #32
  • Feb 20, 2007 12:36am Feb 20, 2007 12:36am
EG, you seem like a smart guy and I think it's great that you’re working on your discipline. I'm concerned that in the process you’re going to ingrain some new bad habits trading this way so let me take a few minutes to point out some things you should consider.

First of all, 3% is insane risk for an untested indicator based system. Drop it to 1% and get use to trading with realistic profit expectations. A good system can turn $1000 into $25k in a year at 1%. Take your time and learn how to build one like that and you won't ever need to worry about blowing up an account again. Swinging for the fences on every trade will have you wishing about what might have been.

A 250 pips stop on trades that you’re going to close for 5-30 pips profit will give you a false sense of accomplishment. You may get a high win rate, but just 1 catastrophic loss is going to destroy week’s worth of work. Try trading with a 1:1 risk reward if you want to build something with a high win rate. That way each trade has less of an impact on your account balance.

If you want to pursue the indicator route, by all means you’re entitled to it. I wouldn't expect that you’re going to do any better than 50% (and probably significantly less) on a win rate with them though. The most important aspect of success in trading is the traders own psychology. If you’re killing yourself to build a system with specifications that aren't realistic you’re going to become frustrated and ruin the belief in yourself as a capable trader. Once you lose that it isn't so easy to get it back. Trash the indicators or lower your expectations for them.

Your system is too complicated to generate long term profits. You have way too many contingencies and variables that go into each trade. This is probably a byproduct of using indicators, but regardless you need to cut yourself down to:

Enter on X condition with Y stop and z take profit.
Rule YY is what condition has to be met to move your stop up (never down).

You need to learn how to place trades and let them work. Staring at the chart and closing every time you think a retrace is imminent will get you nothing but a blown account. Discipline is about more than waiting for the perfect entry. You need to have the discipline to follow your rules to the letter and the more complicated the rules the harder they will be for you to follow.

I'm not being critical, just trying to offer some advice. I wish you the best of luck.
  • #33
  • Edited Feb 21, 2007 12:48am Feb 20, 2007 2:16am | Edited Feb 21, 2007 12:48am
Hello Darkstar.

Thank you for visiting this thread and providing your advice. I really appreaciate them. I agree with a number of what you have written below. However, there are a few things that I have my reasons for doing so, which you do not agree to. Nonetheless, it was very kind of you to provide your thoughts on my strategy.

First, pointing out the jumping in and out of short trades. At this.... I have decided to just trade the main trend. If I get that itch to trade the opposite based on my indicators, I will do that on my demo.

The reason why you see those multiple or probably opposing trades is because I am also testing different strategies within a strategy. That kind of messes things up and on 2-4 trades back made me lose several PIPS opportunity. I believe that EW Theory is really very Powerful in its forecasting Probabilities.

To my mind, I should trade the main waves and should I have that desire to trade a Retrace I will have to do that with separate trades and not exit the current trades. Unless I am very sure about the end of a wave where standard EW Fibonacci levels are attained at the prescribed time ratio plus fundamentals and the technicals..... then I have to exit the main trend trade .

This is just one aspect that I am going to evaluate if it is better than waiting it out till the end of the 5 wave move for example. So additional strategies I will evalute or think about are

1. enter at the begining of a 5 wave move for example and exit till the end of the 5th wave.

2. enter at the begining of each impulse wave 1, 3 and 5 then exit before the retrace of each wave or at its end. that means not trading the retrace but just the beginning of each impulse wave not the corrective waves.

3. the 3rd is the gruelling one which is to trade each wave both impulse and corrective.


Right now, I am more inclined to do the #1 and number#2 combination. I will apply the #3 to my demo.

Still insane?


Quoting Darkstar
EG, you seem like a smart guy and I think it's great that you’re working on your discipline. I'm concerned that in the process you’re going to ingrain some new bad habits trading this way so let me take a few minutes to point out some things you should consider.

First of all, 3% is insane risk for an untested indicator based system. Drop it to 1% and get use to trading with realistic profit expectations. A good system can turn $1000 into $25k in a year at 1%. Take your time and learn how to build one like that and you won't ever need to worry about blowing up an account again. Swinging for the fences on every trade will have you wishing about what might have been.

I am sorry, I still do not understand the 1% and 3%. I will have to read on that still. I have encountered this before but this did not really stick into my brain. As to the swinging fences, I will deal with that as I described above. I want to ensure that I am able to identify each turn and be able to assess if it is worth while like more profitable to do that compared to just waiting out a trade till the end of an expected full 5 wave move for example or a 3wave move for the corrective move. I guess, exposure to all those science experiments I did when I was in research has ingrained in my mind that if I want to know how something works or performs..... I need to test and make my experiments.

But unlike those scientific experiments that need what I usually thought were complex experimental designs..... I come up with simple tests that to me would suffice in this market. then again, that strategy of opening opposing trades will be moved to my demo and not be included in my live trades. 2 samples of this type of trading yesterday should suffice to warn me of this.

A 250 pips stop on trades that you’re going to close for 5-30 pips profit will give you a false sense of accomplishment. You may get a high win rate, but just 1 catastrophic loss is going to destroy week’s worth of work. Try trading with a 1:1 risk reward if you want to build something with a high win rate. That way each trade has less of an impact on your account balance.

I will need to brush up on the Risk Reward Ratio again. Although as I see it, it is having same values for your SL and your TP. Here will will have our differences. The SL I employ is basically dependent on the currency Pair I trade . Each Pair as you know has its characteristic Average Daily Range of Movement. For the Cable, I find it comfortable to use this specially with some help on the EW Counts plus my indicators.

If you want to pursue the indicator route, by all means you’re entitled to it. I wouldn't expect that you’re going to do any better than 50% (and probably significantly less) on a win rate with them though. The most important aspect of success in trading is the traders own psychology. If you’re killing yourself to build a system with specifications that aren't realistic you’re going to become frustrated and ruin the belief in yourself as a capable trader. Once you lose that it isn't so easy to get it back. Trash the indicators or lower your expectations for them. As I have previously mentioned...... I am working at getting better to read Price Action so I can then start eliminating my Indicators. But that is at the Level of you ALL GURUS. Hopefully, I still get to sit with ALL You GURUS when I reach that stage of EXCELLENCE.

Your system is too complicated to generate long term profits. You have way too many contingencies and variables that go into each trade. This is probably a byproduct of using indicators, but regardless you need to cut yourself down to:

Enter on X condition with Y stop and z take profit.
Rule YY is what condition has to be met to move your stop up (never down).

With respect to what you have pointed out above, I believe right now that it would not be as easy as that. I mean... to analyze now and set entry and exit.... then place our trades. We have to remember that we are in a VERY Dynamic Market that stays up 24 hours a day about 6 days a week. This is where we factor in our Fundamental Analysis. Anything can happen within a Day or a week.

So, if we only base our decisions and analysis of price action in this market thru a singler process... I feel I would be doomed. I see that we have to have a more wholistic view from which we base our analysis.

Elliot Wave for example.... No Elliotician ( I mean the really good ones as others would describe them ) not all of them would be very specific as to each retrace in an impulse or corrective wave. They almost always say that at this point this is what we see. Later on they would say that "initially, this was our analysis, but then the market is ever changing so we have to have an alternative wave count to suit the current conditions.

Initially, I felt so frustrated with that as this was what i got from a pricey commercial signal service last December. I would have preferred that at the onset they provide me all the potential counts so that when I do my own analysis, Then I can immedietely make my decisions and not wait for them to post it on the website. But I guess the signal service To them is for people who prefer not to think the why's of every trade. Well, that is not me anymore. I must admit that I also almost gave up on EW after going thru Several books. All those charts and waves and numbers just made the hair on my nape stand up for hours. So I said, I will pay andf let them give me the signal. But I got wiped out, more because of my poor money management. I was trading on a very high margin. The signal service would be good when you have very tight money management.

You need to learn how to place trades and let them work. Staring at the chart and closing every time you think a retrace is imminent will get you nothing but a blown account. Discipline is about more than waiting for the perfect entry. You need to have the discipline to follow your rules to the letter and the more complicated the rules the harder they will be for you to follow.

I'm not being critical, just trying to offer some advice. I wish you the best of luck.
Really Darkstar.... I thank you for your insights.

EG
  • #34
  • Feb 20, 2007 2:34am Feb 20, 2007 2:34am
The Plunge of the GBPUSD a few minutes after being +8 pips on my Trade #9 reaching a -67Pips now is one of the reasons why I want to be able to identify valuable turns. This 67pips is very valuable. and we can help maximize our profits if we can see worthwhile points of retrace.
  • #35
  • Feb 20, 2007 3:04am Feb 20, 2007 3:04am
I would like to think of this reversal or retrace as the End of what looks like a Wave 2 down of the Wave C up.

If this is so, I think I am about to see what 1 EW Guru was saying that we would reach the 1.9800-1.9900 Range. That is 261.8 % of Wave 1. 161.8 is in the area of 1.9669.

I will stop referring to the Gurus by name as I realize I have not requested for their permission to refer to them in my posts here. I apologize to them now with this post.

But then again, let us see how things work out later.

I feel a bit edgy right now as I still have to go out and meet with a staff. I will have to be away from my dearest computer with all my notes on it for my trades........

There will be news later so watch out ........ I am still down with that delayed untimely Long Intraday entry I made. Now would have been a more opportune time to do this. I am very much tempted to reduce my SL on my forward trades so I can trade another long now in the intraday, but I will stick to my original plan. I will just take the lessons on Price Action on my charts now. They should be more than valuable. And not reducing my SL on my other trades would be less stress on me as I will be away from my computer.

Good Trading Everyone.
  • #36
  • Edited 8:34pm Feb 20, 2007 3:13am | Edited 8:34pm
Just a reminder, if The trip up is a Wave 3...... remember that it is an impulse wave and it will be further divided in 5 waves before it reaches that target range. Expect retraces a long the way up. Just a heads up when you look at it.

Friends.... I am not an EW Guru but I am throwing in the precautionary details just incase you follow my trades. I do not advice you to trade my trades though. Refer to some one more experienced in this trade

EW
  • #37
  • Feb 20, 2007 9:28pm Feb 20, 2007 9:28pm
I have just finished typing a long post analyzing my trades yesterday and what I see the Cable going to within to day and probably till next week and hopefully the coming 1-2 months.

After hitting the submit button, I am informed that I am not logged on when infact I was . Now I can not type the thoughts again....

Ggggggggggggggggggggggrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Title was supposed to be " Errors in Judgement " from yesterday's trade.
  • #38
  • Feb 20, 2007 9:55pm Feb 20, 2007 9:55pm
Let us think about everything we have gone thru from the last few weeks. The following ideas should help keep us on our toes. The days are numbered and so we must be prepared:

Sling along the expected tangents otherwise we might forget start now.
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lkahycgdb18927.01098jyt543vdt0
poiyhe192lha.ytarfs9.0714900
felkid1 82hg621.9khad861. 00
uyat5.14301aty.9.ljkas72hxb5

from all of usa 191.97.692hwm25 - 1.+kqgb99utbfs00 range
100LSA We have short-term Investmentsfor our Target
8adg36171.961.5uremp50

Must asreDo in seventy-seven years ifwe go foreAll we didse can they e a AUssie Dollar Plunger for removal and cleaning a Kiwi Dollar utmost dilligence in Recovery for All of us in 1 Year?

hhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmm

Please bear with me. I just need to jot this down.

I will explain later.
  • #39
  • Feb 21, 2007 12:15am Feb 21, 2007 12:15am
I have just placed a Limit Order and then went thru some journals from the main list.

I think SHOCKED is not the appropriate word.

Let me jot down my understanding of a Guru.

A GURU is somebody who is "thought" to be very knowledgeable about something or many things. Has a lot of ideas. But not necessarily right all the time. This to me is the definition of a Guru.

We have our own minds and need to exercise that faculty of thinking and learning. Guru's can be referred to for ideas without having to embrace fully what he imparts and swallow every millimeter of hook line and sinker.

Trading FOREX as they always say is a highly marginalized endeavour. While you can Profit BIG, there is exactly the more gruesome possibility of Losing BIG. And to trade without understanding why you entered or exited a trade is very dangerous. More so if one just follows and trades a trade of a GURU.

Of all the people here in FF, I can only remember 1 person very willing to share and teach ( mind you... he would teach it PERSONALLY for FREE )what he knows about the EW Theory. The others would be willing to share references and a few of their ideas. But this GUY...... goes out of his way to SHARE what he knows.

However, we who wish to use EW in our analysis of the forex market, still have the need to do our own homework to try and understand it. And as always, JUST A SINGLE strategy is not sufficient at coming to a conclusion in our analysis. We need other strategies to verify what we conclude from using EW.

There are people here who have been very willing to share what they have like indicators , ideas, strategies, and time too. And I am very much indebted to a lot of people here who have unselfishly shared what they could. I have not had this opporunity in my life to see so many people sharing. And I mean sharing with no monetary exchange.

More power to ALL of YOU here in Forex Factory.

EG
  • #40
  • Feb 21, 2007 12:21am Feb 21, 2007 12:21am
Let us wait for GBPUSD to get to

1.9515
1.9501
1.9495 preference
1.9492
1.9475 could be unlikely
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