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Why Indicators will fail you

  • #61
  • Sep 16, 2008 10:23pm Sep 16, 2008 10:23pm
Quoting eagle4x
Engulfing Candles

http://www.tradingcurrencyonline.com/images/jap_5.jpg



Wrong Wrong and Wrong. I mean serious what time frame is this even on. You ask me to post a chart so i do then you give me this?

So with that analysis you are selling as the market is already going down, and buying as the market is already going up. Another fundamentally flawed way of thinking.

Not the way successful traders take positions. They buy as the market is going down and sell as market is going up.

Check your private messages eagle
  • #62
  • Sep 16, 2008 10:45pm Sep 16, 2008 10:45pm
I don't have to assume anything. You first knock indicators, and then you say you trade using candlesticks, which are I-N-D-I-C-A-T-O-R-S! How many times do I have to say that? Then you give the incorrect signals for candlesticks. Now you are putting conditions on your example - trade management, time of day. You implied from your post that you are basing your trades strickly on the candles, not anything else.

How did you manage your 1st trade during the several hundred pip drawdown it incurred before it reversed?

I don't think you should knock indicators without explaining in detail your method.

Quoting steelhead
secondly eagle if you are talking about the first red candle with no wick being a losing trade you are again wrong. Its called managing a trade. Once a trade is up a certain amount of pips it should never become a losing trade. Once i get up 50 pips or so my stop usually goes to entry.

that candle you talk about closed at 1.4496 and made a high of 1.4545 that should never ever become a losing trade. When you have a game plan in place before entering a trade then eliminate the risk all is good. So again up over 40 pips on that trade stop at entry how is it a loser?

I love how you assume I am a newbie you know nothing about me. Stop assuming you know anything about me.

I know what i am doing Eagle been at this a long time. I will tell you again indicators in the long run will get you in major trouble.
  • #63
  • Sep 16, 2008 10:47pm Sep 16, 2008 10:47pm
Quoting steelhead
Not the way successful traders take positions. They buy as the market is going down and sell as market is going up.
Really?

You advocate going against the trend?

Or picking tops and bottoms?

I would like to hear how you do that?
(apart from picking trades from yesterdays charts)
  • #64
  • Sep 16, 2008 10:54pm Sep 16, 2008 10:54pm
Quoting eagle4x
I don't have to assume anything. You first knock indicators, and then you say you trade using candlesticks, which are I-N-D-I-C-A-T-O-R-S! How many times do I have to say that? Then you give the incorrect signals for candlesticks. Now you are putting conditions on your example - trade management, time of day. You implied from your post that you are basing your trades strickly on the candles, not anything else.

How did you manage your 1st trade during the several hundred pip drawdown it incurred before it reversed?

I don't think you should knock indicators without explaining in detail your method.


Maybe you can explain to me what 100+ pip drawdown you are talking about.

there are always conditions to enter a trade. Like i said im not hear to argue, but again post a chart or something where that trade went several hundred pips in drawdown.

offshore i dont need to post any charts today or yesterday do what you want and i will do what i want.
  • #65
  • Sep 16, 2008 10:57pm Sep 16, 2008 10:57pm
Quoting FXoffshore
Really?

You advocate going against the trend?

Or picking tops and bottoms?

I would like to hear how you do that?
(apart from picking trades from yesterdays charts)

Fx good question i take both trend and counter trend trades with my method. I am looking for areas where the professional traders are most likely to reverse the market.

I can post charts for today but I havent really had a setup i liked today. Last week I didnt have one till thursday. Then from thursday to close i had two trades that went for over 500 pips apiece.

If I have to I will wait till thursday again to get what i am looking for
  • #66
  • Sep 16, 2008 11:10pm Sep 16, 2008 11:10pm
Steelhead

It sounds like whatever you are doing it is working for you...I to trade solely on price action but i do also use the fibs because it seems to me that the market does respect them at times.

so do you base your price action set ups off of candlestick formations along with s/r? or do you also pay attention to the news?
  • #67
  • Sep 16, 2008 11:11pm Sep 16, 2008 11:11pm
I'll put my money on the line, trading my method.

I'll buy EUR/USD right now @ 1.4133 long
the time on MT4 is Sept 17 5:11 pm.

Then we can examine the method later.
  • #68
  • Sep 16, 2008 11:28pm Sep 16, 2008 11:28pm
Ok, you wrote "The lines indicate places where i would get long." Your 1st line at approx. 4100 (long trade) went down below 3905 before it reversed - that's the drawdown I'm referring to.



Quoting steelhead
Maybe you can explain to me what 100+ pip drawdown you are talking about.

there are always conditions to enter a trade. Like i said im not hear to argue, but again post a chart or something where that trade went several hundred pips in drawdown.

offshore i dont need to post any charts today or yesterday do what you want and i will do what i want.
  • #69
  • Sep 16, 2008 11:50pm Sep 16, 2008 11:50pm
Attached is chart showing QQEA indicator on same pair/timeframe. Red below yellow line is short, above is long. These signals generate many more pips than you candlestick method.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hr_qqea.gif Size: 54 KB
  • #70
  • Sep 16, 2008 11:50pm Sep 16, 2008 11:50pm
Quoting FXoffshore
I'll put my money on the line, trading my method.

I'll buy EUR/USD right now @ 1.4133 long
the time on MT4 is Sept 17 5:11 pm.

Then we can examine the method later.

I am sure you will be happy with that decision.......Real sucess in trading forex comes with understanding Inter-Market Relationhips of the currencies. Which requires special software and lot of hours understanding how the currency is reacting. Example you went long the euro/dollar.... Which part of this is making it move up hopefully? The dollar part or the euro part or both? The answer at this moment is both. Wouldn't you like to make that trade knowing that before you traded? That answer is the real reason to make the trade when it appears. But the thread here is good and I stand pat on saying no real professional trader that I know make their money using indicators.
  • #71
  • Sep 17, 2008 12:17am Sep 17, 2008 12:17am
your dumb.

just because you put every indicator you could find one one chart and couldnt make sense of it does not mean all indicators are crap and none work.

now chances are you didnt do what i described above, but regardless, i have used some systems with just indicators, and traded it mechanically and had success, so basically, you are wrong.
  • #72
  • Sep 17, 2008 12:21am Sep 17, 2008 12:21am
Anything you can use to make money is where it's @.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Why indicators are useless.JPG Size: 64 KB
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #73
  • Sep 17, 2008 12:26am Sep 17, 2008 12:26am
Indicators aren't crap, some are better some are worse. If you use an indicator to tell you where price is going most of the time or use crazy r:r in your trades then you're a fool and you will lose. If you use the indicator only in certain cases, ussualy when it helps to show you a potential breakout starting (I'm mainly talking about MACD) and you use 1:1 or close r:r and coordinate with other factors like mas and other tfs then you should do quite well. Fibs.. sometimes help you spot s&r areas when plotted on higher tfs, doesn't mean you can really trade them. Pivots, only an idiot would trade without those, they are CLEARLY used by the people who move the market, as well. Weekly levels always prove to be clear s&r areas. AO is a nice indicator as well, I occasionaly use it to help me see new waves start in a trend with pretty nice probability, but of course only when other factors agree.

I agree that price action and what you see on a naked chart is the most important info and what should primarily guide a trade. But, ignoring all other technical analysis tools is not a good idea, as they can considrably simplify things as an addition to naked pa.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #74
  • Sep 17, 2008 12:49am Sep 17, 2008 12:49am
Quoting endroute

The bottom line is each trader has to find their own way and learn what works for them, the problem is most people are sheep and can't think for themselves I mean honestly why else would George Bush be elected to 2 terms in office.
Well....that, and the fact that there hasn't been anyone on the other side worth voting for as well.
  • #75
  • Sep 17, 2008 1:20am Sep 17, 2008 1:20am
Quoting eagle4x
Ok, you wrote "The lines indicate places where i would get long." Your 1st line at approx. 4100 (long trade) went down below 3905 before it reversed - that's the drawdown I'm referring to.
Price went down to about 1.4046 and then up to about 1.4220 before going back down to 1.3905... so his stop would have been in place already.
  • #76
  • Sep 17, 2008 1:28am Sep 17, 2008 1:28am
Quoting Jurrasic
Indicators aren't crap, some are better some are worse. If you use an indicator to tell you where price is going most of the time or use crazy r:r in your trades then you're a fool and you will lose. If you use the indicator only in certain cases, ussualy when it helps to show you a potential breakout starting (I'm mainly talking about MACD) and you use 1:1 or close r:r and coordinate with other factors like mas and other tfs then you should do quite well. Fibs.. sometimes help you spot s&r areas when plotted on higher tfs, doesn't mean you can really trade them. Pivots, only an idiot would trade without those, they are CLEARLY used by the people who move the market, as well. Weekly levels always prove to be clear s&r areas. AO is a nice indicator as well, I occasionaly use it to help me see new waves start in a trend with pretty nice probability, but of course only when other factors agree.

I agree that price action and what you see on a naked chart is the most important info and what should primarily guide a trade. But, ignoring all other technical analysis tools is not a good idea, as they can considrably simplify things as an addition to naked pa.

I must agree wholeheartedly. Pivot Points are very important to use. Floor traders from years back used to write on the back of their trading cards what the PP was so they had a quick reference as to when to get in and out. The higher the time frame the more important the PP. I personally use fibs, PP, and Stochs (for divergence/convergence only) along with certain candle patterns for entry.

For Steelhead and others:
I have found out long ago that opinions and AH's are similar, everyone got one. Some people think they got all the answers and everyone else is wrong. That is why I usually just come in, get my news schedule or update myself to the news and leave. There is just so much soap opera junk and needless arguing (along with insults) here. I will say that those who want to cast dispersions on others or post how others are doing wrong need to put up or shut up. If others are wrong then show people what you do if your so right, don't just skip over their posts or ignore someone when they call you out (like fxoffshore did). Indicators are used for confirmation not entries and exits and shouldn't be used as such. People like these always say "it's not about my methods", well if you want to prove your right and everyone else is wrong then you need to prove it, otherwise your wrong. Personally, If it works for you then good for you but my method works for me and I'll stick to it.
  • #77
  • Sep 17, 2008 2:27am Sep 17, 2008 2:27am
Whatever tools (indicators and/or PA) you use, you're basically entering on either breakouts or pullbacks, and exiting using trailing stops and/or profit targets.

My own approach involves trends, S/R (especially confluences), momentum and certain chart formations.

Everything else being equal, I use a heat map to trade the strongest currency against the weakest.

And I also keep an eye on key economic trends.

If the market is trending strongly, I try to let profit run as far as possible. Otherwise I'll scale out using S/R-based exits.

But each to his or her own. As the saying goes, different strokes for different folks.

David
  • #78
  • Sep 17, 2008 3:30am Sep 17, 2008 3:30am
Quoting eagle4x
Ok, you wrote "The lines indicate places where i would get long." Your 1st line at approx. 4100 (long trade) went down below 3905 before it reversed - that's the drawdown I'm referring to.


you know I can handle critics but blatant lies I just cant handle. The candle in question never went to 3905. From what I have drawn again here it closed at 4120 and made a low of 4055. That would still keep me in the trade with the stop losses that are used. It then made a high of 4160 on the next candle.

So your statement is entirely false. Seriously I don't know how you get this info and twist it around to suite your purposes.

Maybe now is a good time to explain what criteria must be met for me to enter. What my rules of engagement are.

1. Always be mindful of news
2. What time of day is it. I usually dont take trades other then in london and new yrk and only four hour candle
3. 70-80 pip stop loss is 9-10 what i use as stops


those are a few of what I look at when considering a trade.

Eagle you are flat out wrong again with your statement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: blatant lie.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #79
  • Sep 17, 2008 3:40am Sep 17, 2008 3:40am
Some interesting pdf's contained within zip file...

Also see link http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86429
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf BRV_S+R_Trading.pdf   652 KB | 1,085 downloads
File Type: zip SR Suppy Demand Equilibrium.zip   1.4 MB | 852 downloads
  • #80
  • Edited 5:02am Sep 17, 2008 4:45am | Edited 5:02am
A good time to explain the rules would have been when you 1st posted the original strategy. You didn't mention anything then about a stop, only that you would go long where the lines were. Again, those red candlesticks without wicks are bearish signals, not bullish. If you don't agree - find some articles stating otherwise, and post it in this thread.

Quoting steelhead
you know I can handle critics but blatant lies I just cant handle. The candle in question never went to 3905. From what I have drawn again here it closed at 4120 and made a low of 4055. That would still keep me in the trade with the stop losses that are used. It then made a high of 4160 on the next candle.

So your statement is entirely false. Seriously I don't know how you get this info and twist it around to suite your purposes.

Maybe now is a good time to explain what criteria must be met for me to enter. What my rules of engagement are.

1. Always be mindful of news
2. What time of day is it. I usually dont take trades other then in london and new yrk and only four hour candle
3. 70-80 pip stop loss is 9-10 what i use as stops


those are a few of what I look at when considering a trade.

Eagle you are flat out wrong again with your statement.
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