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Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

  • #181
  • Sep 12, 2008 9:53am Sep 12, 2008 9:53am
September 12, US Close

The USD sell off hastens as the US close nears; its better to have the move during market times, rather than a gap. I guess traders know what a weekend gap would do. Looks like this week provided a nice bottom. We need to follow for couple more weeks, to confirm that indeed a bottom is in place.

Last quotes:


EUR/USD 1.4170s
GBP/USD 1.7840s
GBP/JPY 191.50s
  • #182
  • Sep 12, 2008 11:55pm Sep 12, 2008 11:55pm
Quoting preneur
September 12, US Close

The USD sell off hastens as the US close nears; its better to have the move during market times, rather than a gap. I guess traders know what a weekend gap would do. Looks like this week provided a nice bottom. We need to follow for couple more weeks, to confirm that indeed a bottom is in place.

Last quotes:


EUR/USD 1.4170s
GBP/USD 1.7840s
GBP/JPY 191.50s
any direction bias for the comming week?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #183
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:02pm Sep 13, 2008 5:02pm
whats wrong with Lehman? and what its effect on the currencies?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #184
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:29pm Sep 14, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting Obaidah
any direction bias for the comming week?
I think the bias is USD negative. Last week, we supposedly placed a top in USD buying; this week there is rate decision, and there is a chance that Fed will decrease; they may have to.

Let's see if indeed a bottom is in place for Gold, Euro, Oil, etc...
  • #185
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:30pm Sep 14, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting Obaidah
whats wrong with Lehman? and what its effect on the currencies?
Lehman is in big trouble, and has got no saviors. It will certainly cause volatility.
  • #186
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:39pm Sep 14, 2008 4:39pm
Fed funds rate expected to go down to 1.5% by election time, November

As the 2nd wave, the mid-size one, before a probable melt down and crisis, is starting, lighted by the Fannie/Freddie bailout last week, the interest rate is expected to fall another by another 25% to 1.5% during the next 2-3 Fed sit downs.

If the financial markets deteriorate aggressively during Monday trading, Fed is likely to drop by 25 basis points on Tuesday meeting.

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...ncapture18.jpg
  • #187
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:42pm Sep 14, 2008 4:42pm
sorry, just 2 cents of info. Also the drop because the deal that Lehman had worked out to save there *****, fell through. the feds are now rushing to see what they can do about it.
  • #188
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:44pm Sep 14, 2008 11:44pm
EU market open

Yet another 100+ points gap in majors; let's see if/when it will be filled. Last week it was the Fannie/Freddie gap, this week it's the Lehman. These gaps show how on thin ice is the confidence in the markets. Maybe 3rd one will be the Merill Gap?
  • #189
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:21am Sep 15, 2008 12:21am
FORMER US FED CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN SAYS VERY BAD IDEA TO GET RID OF SHORT SELLING

what the hell does that mean?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #190
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:31am Sep 15, 2008 12:31am
I think its a great idea.. He's referring to the US equity markets.

Big funds can naked short a stock without being required to cover the shares.Here in 4x land we buy pairs and sell them. We short pairs and cover. In US equity markets big funds can short a stock and are able to get away with not covering by using pre-existing loopholes. The retail investor does not have this luxury.

I can't think of any effect on the 4x though.
  • #191
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:39am Sep 15, 2008 2:39am
Quoting akirax
I think its a great idea.. He's referring to the US equity markets.

Big funds can naked short a stock without being required to cover the shares.Here in 4x land we buy pairs and sell them. We short pairs and cover. In US equity markets big funds can short a stock and are able to get away with not covering by using pre-existing loopholes. The retail investor does not have this luxury.

I can't think of any effect on the 4x though.
soo, just confusing?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #192
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:43am Sep 15, 2008 2:43am
Quoting preneur
Fed funds rate expected to go down to 1.5% by election time, November

As the 2nd wave, the mid-size one, before a probable melt down and crisis, is starting, lighted by the Fannie/Freddie bailout last week, the interest rate is expected to fall another by another 25% to 1.5% during the next 2-3 Fed sit downs.

If the financial markets deteriorate aggressively during Monday trading, Fed is likely to drop by 25 basis points on Tuesday meeting.
man they already have done this to stimulate the economy and it didnt work, i dont know why but somehow i feel that their plan now is to give up and change some market players...
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #193
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:46am Sep 15, 2008 4:46am
Quoting Obaidah
FORMER US FED CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN SAYS VERY BAD IDEA TO GET RID OF SHORT SELLING

what the hell does that mean?

It would be bad idea to get rid of short selling, because thats an important part of market efficiency; both longs + shorts act as counterparties, and banning side will cause abrupt moves. Look at Chinese stock market, gain of 500%+ in 18 months, than a collapse of almost 70% + in 12 months. Thats kind of what will happen.
  • #194
  • Sep 15, 2008 5:16am Sep 15, 2008 5:16am
Who's in danger?

Bear is down, Lehman is down. So who's in danger? I'll let the market speak for itself:

1) Brokerage

After Lehman's demise, and Merill's submission, all eyes will turn to Morgan Stanley

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/ima..._june%2708.gif

The data above is from June '08, when Lehman cds spread was around 300 basis points. Please note that Lehman's basis points was above 750 when it went bankrupt; thats more than double. I'll try to update the data later.
  • #195
  • Sep 15, 2008 5:24am Sep 15, 2008 5:24am
2) Insurance

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/ima..._june%2708.gif
  • #196
  • Sep 15, 2008 5:31am Sep 15, 2008 5:31am
3) Banks

This is very interesting in my opinion. After BoA's acquisition of Merrill Lynch, it would be interesting if this move benefits Merrill or harm BoA, which is significant, because its one of the largest retail banks in the world. BoA weakening would have a substantial impact in financial markets, and highly decrease public confidence in retail banks.

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/ima..._june%2708.gif
  • #197
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:37am Sep 15, 2008 6:37am
Lehman Gap mimics Freddie/Fannie Gap

Last Monday's move got mimicked today in almost all majors, including USD and JPY crosses. EUR/USD started the session above 1.44, climbing as high as 1.45, then facing a huge sell off, to fall below 1.41 right before the US session.

Another week, once again, the gap gets filled.
  • #198
  • Sep 15, 2008 7:22am Sep 15, 2008 7:22am
Fed announces that it will start to accept stocks for credit

In a first time move since its inception 90 years ago, Fed announced that it will begin to accept stocks for credit. In a similar move six months ago, Fed began to accept failing mortgages in exchange for credit first time in its history.

A sign that no body else but Fed wants to buy any stake of failing financial system? Probably, yes.
  • #199
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:03am Sep 15, 2008 8:03am
Quoting preneur
Lehman Gap mimics Freddie/Fannie Gap

Last Monday's move got mimicked today in almost all majors, including USD and JPY crosses. EUR/USD started the session above 1.44, climbing as high as 1.45, then facing a huge sell off, to fall below 1.41 right before the US session.

Another week, once again, the gap gets filled.
GBP/USD is at 1.7890 now.
Are we still in strong bullish or ...?
  • #200
  • Sep 15, 2008 8:45am Sep 15, 2008 8:45am
Quoting trader8686
GBP/USD is at 1.7890 now.
Are we still in strong bullish or ...?
I believe we are in a period of establishing a top in USD index; hence a bottom in most majors, including EUR and GBP. If there indeed is a bottom during next days/weeks, expect all-time highs to be exceeded.

Its kinda early to say that, but thats i think what will happen
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