Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

duh..euro stopped just below 1.45, missed my TP, there's also a fib extension at .97, might not make it up again.

Guppy is inching lower, but it has to go through a couple of resistances.

I'm back and reading through your posts, not seen so much woes since that reactor in Geneva was activated

one thing..about the market cycles and things that happen but are not so dramatic and surprising as they appear to be and when they happen you just realize that they are already priced in...remember that IMF official who said a while ago that another big US bank will fall?

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle4563171.ece

That was almost one month ago! and the guy didn't say maybe, or possibly.

My point is, things that we see happening are not so surprising or dramatic as they appear, and when they happen, the market is really moving towards the next point.

I am sure this Lehman demise will only have a positive effect on the financial markets, if only for the simple fact that big guys had enough time to think ahead.

Hi,

Just wondering anyone using FXCM Micro?
I just open an account with them as they advertised the spread of GJ is just 4 pips.
The bad news is most of the time the spread is around 11-14 pips, way above the spread provided by other broker (even there is no news release).
My previous broker offer very consistent 8pips spread for GJ.
Just reference, anyone have spread lower than this?

OANDA
20 pips weekend spread (allows trading during weekend)
7-8 pips consistent in Asian session
4.5-5.7 pips in Euro-US session
Only problem is, spread widens during news

I already warned you bro ..
Today looks like a good one to scalp short ..

Hi Malcolm

Is there somewhere i can get hold of the spreadsheet you talk of (not so good on the equations). I would find it quite a useful tool as will other beginners to show ourselves that we dont have to capture all the pips in the world to make it happen, just need consistent results over time.

I quite often find myself up 50-100 pips for the day then continue to trade to get those few more pips (greed). Most of the time I end up in negative or breakeven which is very frustrating. I know now that if i can stay focused on capturing a handfull of pips per day then shutting up shop regardless, then by the end of the year i will have a very nice return.


Cheers

Thanks for your answer, I don't get this every week though, but most weeks I do.
I guess patience and money management is the only way to come out as a millionaire some day far in the future.

Orca

With 250 pips a week and 2% as stop loss I will gain about 2.5 % ROI per week. At least that is my goal. I don't get it every week, but, in a great part thanks to you guys, slowly I'm getting better at this.

Orca

K, thanks...
The problem with Oanda is it does not accept credit card or liberty reserves.
I'm looking for company that accept credit card or LR and GJ spread is <8 pips, best if using metatrader.
My previous broker, Marketiva is a very basic platform, but the spread is very consistent 8 pips during non news period.
if no other alternative, maybe will just stick with the previous broker.

Try Interbank, 9 pip spread on GJ consistantly, they use MT4 but I don't know if they accept CC's.
I use MT4 Interbank for charting but my brooker is OANDA.

Orca

it is .. mentioned this earlier .. looking for sell opps 5 min .... closed last one on 190/20 ... 20 pips to early

majors have been way easier to trade tonight than the beast ... gbpusd and eurusd very straight forward

I do not have excell on this machine .. but will post it tomorrow

50 pips .. call it a day .. you have green ones

does not matter if markets moves another 300 .....

50 pips a day , no matter account size you trade will make you serious $$$

Lehman rescue fails, BofA buys Merrill for $50B
Monday September 15, 12:12 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, Christopher S. Rugaber and Martin Crutsinger, AP Business Writers As Lehman's future dims, Fed and banks offer cash lifeline to financial system

NEW YORK (AP) -- A failed plan to rescue Lehman Brothers was followed Sunday by more seismic shocks from Wall Street, including a government-brokered takeover of Merrill Lynch by the Bank of America for $50 billion.

A forced restructuring of the world's largest insurance company, American International Group Inc., also weighed heavily on global markets as the effects of the 14-month-old credit crisis intensified.
A global consortium of banks, working with government officials in New York, announced late Sunday a $70 billion pool of funds to lend to troubled financial companies. The aim, according to participants who spoke to The Associated Press, was to prevent a worldwide panic on stock and other financial exchanges.
Ten banks -- Bank of America, Barclays, Citibank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS -- each agreed to provide $7 billion "to help enhance liquidity and mitigate the unprecedented volatility and other challenges affecting global equity and debt markets."
The Federal Reserve also chipped in with more largesse in its emergency lending program for investment banks. The central bank announced late Sunday that it was broadening the types of collateral that financial institutions can use to obtain loans from the Fed.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the discussions had been aimed at identifying "potential market vulnerabilities in the wake of an unwinding of a major financial institution and to consider appropriate official sector and private sector responses."
Futures pegged to the Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 300 points in electronic trading Sunday evening, pointing to a sharply lower open for the blue chip index Monday morning. Asian stock markets were also falling.
The stunning weekend developments took place as voters, who rank the economy as their top concern, prepare to elect a new president in seven weeks. It likely will spur a much greater focus by presidential candidates -- Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama -- and members of Congress on the need for stricter financial regulation.
Samuel Hayes, finance professor emeritus at Harvard Business School, said the Bush administration may get a lot of blame for the situation, which could benefit Obama.
"Just the psychological impact of this kind of failure is going to be significant," he said. "It will color people's feelings about their well-being and the integrity of the financial system."
Lehman Brothers may be forced to seek an orderly unwinding of its businesses. All potential buyers walked away after the U.S. Treasury refused to budge on its refusal to provide any takeover aid, as it had done six months ago when Bear Stearns faltered and earlier this month when it seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Expectations that the 158-year-old Lehman would survive dimmed after Barclays PLC withdrew its bid to buy the investment bank. Barclays and Bank of America were considered front-runners to buy Lehman, which is foundering under the weight of $60 billion in soured real estate holdings.
Employees emerging Sunday night from Lehman's headquarters near the heart of Times Square carried boxes, tote bags and duffel bags, rolling suitcases, framed artwork and spare umbrellas. Many were emblazoned with the Lehman Brothers name.
TV trucks lined Seventh Avenue opposite the building, while barricades at the building's main entrance attempted to keep workers and onlookers from gumming up the steady flow of pedestrians flowing in and out of Times Square.
Some workers had moist eyes while a few others wept and shared hugs. Most who left the building quietly declined interviews.
People snapped pictures with cameras and their phones. Observers pressed up against a police barricade drew the ire of one man who emerged from the building and shouted: "Are you enjoying watching this? You think this is funny?"
Merrill Lynch, another investment bank laid low by the crisis that was triggered by rising mortgage defaults and plunging home values in the U.S., agreed to be acquired by Bank of America for $29 a share, according to a person briefed on the deal who spoke on condition of anonymity because the agreement had not yet been finalized. That's a premium to its closing price on Friday of $17.05, but only a fraction of its price of almost $100 a share early in 2007.
Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America has the most deposits of any U.S. bank, while Merrill Lynch is the world's largest brokerage. A combination of the two would create a global financial giant to rival Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank in terms of assets.
Strategically, most industry analysts say it's a good fit. If the deal goes according to plan, Bank of America will be able to offer Merrill's retail brokerage services to its huge customer base. There is not a great deal of overlap between the two companies -- Bank of America does have an investment bank already, but it has never been terribly strong.
Where there is duplication, however, the combination of the two companies could result in more layoffs. Both Merrill and Bank of America have already cut thousands of investment banking jobs over the past year.
The deal would not come without risks, however. Merrill Lynch, like many of its Wall Street peers, has been struggling with tight credit markets and billions of dollars in assets tied to mortgages that have plunged in value. Merrill has reported four straight quarterly losses.
And Bank of America's own finances are far from robust. As consumer credit deteriorates, the bank has seen its profits decline, and the company is still in the midst of absorbing the embattled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial, which it acquired in January.
Insurer AIG, hit hard by deterioration in the credit markets, said Sunday it is reviewing its operations and discussing possible options with outside parties to improve its business after a week when its stock dropped 45 percent amid concerns about the company's financial underpinnings. It was working with New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo and a representative of the governor's office through the weekend to craft a solution that protects policyholders, according to Dinallo's spokesman David Neustadt.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was huddled through the weekend at the New York Federal Reserve's fortress-like building in downtown Manhattan with executives from major banks and investment houses to hash out the fate of Lehman Brothers and to staunch the bleeding on Wall Street that threatened to shatter investor confidence around the globe.
"It's clear we're one step away from a financial meltdown," said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of the consulting firm RGE Monitor.
The meetings that began Friday night were a who's who of financial heavyweights: Paulson, Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, and a host of CEOs, including Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc., Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co., John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co.'s John Thain.
For all their efforts, Lehman appeared ready to file for bankruptcy.
The end of Lehman may not stop the financial crisis that has gripped Wall Street for months, analysts said. More investment banks could disappear soon.
The independent broker-dealers "are going the way of the dodo bird," said Bert Ely, an Alexandria, Va.-based banking consultant.
That's partly because some of the firms, particularly Merrill, made bad bets on real estate. But several analysts said that investment companies will need the deep pockets of commercial banks to survive the next few years.
Roubini said with no deal for Lehman, Merrill and the other investment firms would have been hit with a "run on the bank," as hedge funds and other clients withdraw funds and banks become reluctant to lend to them. Many of the investment banks rely on short-term loans to finance their day-to-day operations.
The cost of insuring financial firms' debt from default has been soaring.
A rise in the cost of the insurance, known as credit default swaps, indicates debt holders believe there is a greater chance of default by the financial companies. Especially over the past week, those insurance costs have been increasing rapidly as more debt holders fear companies like Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual Inc. could collapse and not be able to repay their debt.
Swaps on most financial firms are likely to get even worse during the upcoming week, analysts said.
On Sunday, there was also an emergency trading session being held at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association to "reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy." The ISDA, which arranges trades for derivatives, said it was allowing customers to make trades and unwind positions linked to Lehman -- but that those trades would be
Roubini said it's difficult to accurately gauge the health of companies like Merrill because their financial health depends on how they value complex securities. As a result, their finances aren't very transparent, he said.
That can lead to a loss of confidence in the financial markets, he said, which can overwhelm an investment bank even if it is financially healthy by some measures.
"Once you lose confidence, the fundamentals matter less," he said.
Ely said similar shake-outs have happened in other parts of the financial industry, such as credit cards and thrifts. Bank of America acquired independent credit card issuer MBNA in 2005, for example, while credit card company Capital One Financial Corp. has diversified itself by purchasing regional banks in Louisiana, Texas and New York.
The common denominator of the financial crisis, analysts said, is the bursting of the housing bubble. Home prices have dropped on average 25 percent so far. Roubini predicted they could drop another 15 percent.
The crisis has begun to slow the broader economy as banks make fewer loans and consumers have begun cutting spending. Many economists are now forecasting that the economy could slip into recession by the end of this year and early next year.
That, in turn, could cause additional losses for commercial banks on credit cards, auto loans and student loans.
The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 2 percent, below inflation, when it meets Tuesday. It was possible, however, that the central bank might decide in coming weeks to cut rates if such a move is seen as needed to calm turbulent financial markets.
The International Monetary Fund predicted earlier this year that total losses from the credit crisis could reach almost $1 trillion. So far, banks have only taken about $350 billion in losses.
Commercial banks are also starting to feel the pinch. Eleven have closed so far this year, including Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac Bank, which had $32 billion in assets and $19 billion in deposits.
Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, a research firm, predicts that approximately 110 banks with $850 billion in assets could close by next July. That's out of 8,400 federally insured institutions, he said, which together hold $13 trillion in assets.
Individual customers are starting to get nervous about the financial health of their banks for the first time in generations, he said. Whalen's firm analyzes the safety and soundness of banks for business clients, but began receiving inquiries from individuals in the past two months for the first time, he said.
"If we don't get ahead of this, we are going to face a run on the retail banks by election day," he said.
AP Business Writers Madlen Read, Tim Paradis and Stephen Bernard in New York, Martin Crutsinger in Washington, Ieva Augstums in Charlotte and Michael Liedtke in San Francisco contributed to this report.

P.S
FXCM Micro do not provide MT4 too, just more advance than marketiva.
FXCM explanation of the widen of spread is;

Other platform have go back to normal spread right? theirs reason is not good enough for the widen of spread. Am i right?
Anyway will monitor the spread for whole day see is there any improvement first.

It is scary when you read all these news. I wonder what would happen when New York opens on Monday? I don't want to miss it .. might even stay awake in London session .. wait .. I have a day time job .. still have to go to bed

What is the mood for the London session? up or down? I must honestly say that I have no clue. And since I have to get some sleep exactly when London starts, I'm going to miss a lot of pips, that's for sure. No gambling this time.
Oh well. maybe NY will give nice trading opportunities.

Orca

UJ is falling thru the 105.40 level, and headed towards 104.50/60 and eventually 103 where I think we'll pause depending on what magic words the Fed whispers tomorrow.

its gonna be a crazy and tricky day. My tecnicals say long, fundamentals say be careful we may short

Exactly my thoughts Ephisi.

dunno which way the beast goona go depending on which moves fast- GBP or USDJPY.

But one thing that i am very sure is that USD JPY is gonna be bearish. so been scalping the USD JPY on most rallies.

Waitoing on london to show the monetum and just waiting to jump on the bandwagon.

Just trying to trade these channels thro the night.

Hope people had some nice green ones.




Attachment

Another scalp just taken



Closed at 1.8070 should have stayed longer but since aginst the trend got out early.