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  • #113,161
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:21pm Sep 14, 2008 4:21pm
Quoting markam
glad I have that coin that says short on both sides.
Hahaha

Whichever way it goes, we will ride it

I like shorts better and that Monthly trendline around 176 is still waiting to be touched
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #113,162
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:25pm Sep 14, 2008 4:25pm
AIG To Announce Asset Sale or Capital Injection (More details to come)
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #113,163
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:25pm Sep 14, 2008 4:25pm
Quoting markam
As if things weren't already interesting enough

Bank of America, Merrill Lynch In Merger Talks


By Matthew Karnitschnig,

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122142278543033525.html
may god help us all.
  • #113,164
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:26pm Sep 14, 2008 4:26pm
I just love how they are all getting scared now that Lehman has been left all alone in the dark
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #113,165
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:26pm Sep 14, 2008 4:26pm
Quoting malcolmb14
simple .. because we like traders in this forum. and there are some new ones in here that should not take these ridiculous risks. It is like saying ' hey every trade I am going to make i am going to flip a coin ..tails long and heads short' . There are no ways you can guess what gaps are going to do .... none at all and trying to guess them is not managing your account well. I have seen a stop not filled on a gap till 250 pips under the stop price .. your 100 pip (2% risk) is now 7.5 % of your account gone
I was very specific in my post. In the UK some spread bet firms (IG Index for instance) allow you to place guaranteed stops. Regardless of how bad the swing goes against you, your trade is closed at the stop not 300 pips away from it. The extra risk is taken on by the spread betting firm. You can control the risk to your account precisely. For this you pay an extra spread of a few pips. This is how you control your risk. If you cannot place an order with a guaranteed stop, then I agree with you.

In the case of USD/JPY the minimum guaranteed stop distance on IG Index is normally 18 pips. That's right...18 (which is smaller than any stop I would put in anyway.) For this you pay an extra 3 pip spread. Okay, in certain circumstances this is changed, but once you have placed the bet your stop is locked in. You cannot lose more than that. This allows you to place highly asymmetric gap trades. The minimum stopping distance is sometimes changed just before big news...but if you place your order before that the original stopping distance holds.

Edited to add: You are coming to this from a day trading perspective. I see little difference between trading currency over long time scales and trading shares over long time scales. I had shorts on various UK shares over the past year because I knew at some stage each of them would be hit by really bad news. I had to sit through all sorts of volatility because, provided there was no information to dissuade me from my belief about the state of the markets, I would not be closing the trades...that is the rule I laid down to myself when I placed them to stop me being shaken out by noise...i.e. it is a similar situation to being locked in over a weekend currency trade with a guaranteed stop. (Btw, they've all turned out well.)
  • #113,166
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:27pm Sep 14, 2008 4:27pm
this is scalpers paradise .. 100 tick chart moving 100 pip ranges in 400 ticks

spreads keeping me out of market for now ,, I will trade asia ... going to be hundred of pips to be made this week ... why rush in ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #113,167
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:28pm Sep 14, 2008 4:28pm
Quoting malcolmb14

I think you have been trading for less than a year , please correct me if I am wrong ... you , like me , are still a new trader and have lots to learn in this market,. by the way I have been trading for 6 years and consider my self new still ...lol
I traded equities/options for 4 years, forex, this is my 8th month live trading.
Quote
in this game it is not about making 100's of pips a week or trying to guess gaps .,... it is about managing risk. Once a trader understands this then they will become successful

But I think he has explained many times over that he IS managing risk, maybe he doesn't trade exactly as you do but he is managing his risk and trading in a way that works for him. And he is providing good information as to why he is doing what he does.

I agree with karmo .. if you're earning pips, bless you, if you're losing, then better luck next time!

The newbies will find their way .. they can go just as broke following dr. geppy, you, me (especially me!) or even karmo as they can following spectator because they should not be following anyone .. just learning, managing theier own risk and developing their own trading style which I believe is unique to every trader.
  • #113,168
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:29pm Sep 14, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting Spectator
I was very specific in my post. In the UK some spread bet firms (IG Index for instance) allow you to place guaranteed stops. Regardless of how bad the swing goes against you, your trade is closed at the stop not 300 pips away from it. The extra risk is taken on by the spread betting firm. You can control the risk to your account precisely. For this you pay an extra spread of a few pips. This is how you control your risk. If you cannot place an order with a guaranteed stop, then I agree with you.

In the case of USD/JPY the minimum guaranteed stop distance on IG Index is normally 18 pips. That's right...18 (which is smaller than any stop I would put in anyway.) For this you pay an extra 3 pip spread. Okay, in certain circumstances this is changed, but once you have placed the bet your stop is locked in. You cannot lose more than that. This allows you to place highly asymmetric gap trades. The minimum stopping distance is sometimes changed just before big news...but if you place your order before that the original stopping distance holds.
tired of arguing ... you have to watch what you post ... alot of new traders in here and they will just follow

you can manage risk and have a good handle on it ... most do not . But they see what you are doing and will blindly follow. I am an experienced trader and I would not take the risk you took as I consider it flipping a coin . Now if you bought at 187 and was holding over the weekend that would be ok as you had profit , and could move stop up . In addition the chances of it gapping down 650 pips is unliekly. There were a couple of posts that said buying at end of day Friday .... ask them if their stops were intact .....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #113,169
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:30pm Sep 14, 2008 4:30pm
You guys talking thrash about the times we live and economy like the old people when they have nothing to do

So we have no Lehman deal, a devastating storm, $5 gallon gas, and all that guppy can make is a 300 points drop? lol..that's nothing

I have no position, but just wait for open to add a few to fill that gap; or, if it doesn't will still buy on dips as long as it stays above 188.80;

I expect the week to be bullish, the volumes have been thrown in already, and all they need to do now is to add on their longs;

And Lehman game is not over you'll see, it will be sold piece by piece.

Good luck with your businesses!

"Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money" - Danny De Vito
  • #113,170
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:34pm Sep 14, 2008 4:34pm
Quoting TraderStar
I traded equities/options for 4 years, forex, this is my 8th month live trading.


But I think he has explained many times over that he IS managing risk, maybe he doesn't trade exactly as you do but he is managing his risk and trading in a way that works for him. And he is providing good information as to why he is doing what he does.

I agree with karmo .. if you're earning pips, bless you, if you're losing, then better luck next time!

The newbies will find their way .. they can go just as broke following dr. geppy, you, me (especially me!) or even karmo as they can following spectator because they should not be following anyone .. just learning, managing theier own risk and developing their own trading style which I believe is unique to every trader.
true and on that note NO ONE FOLLOW ME either ... lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #113,171
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:35pm Sep 14, 2008 4:35pm
Lehman Inches Toward Bankruptcy After Potential Buyers Drop Out

By Yalman Onaran and Craig Torres
Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. moved closer to filing for bankruptcy after Barclays Plc and Bank of America Corp. abandoned talks to buy the U.S. securities firm and Wall Street prepared for its possible liquidation.
Barclays, which had emerged as a leading candidate to acquire Lehman, pulled out first, contending it couldn't obtain guarantees from the government or other Wall Street firms to protect against potential losses on Lehman's assets. Bank of America withdrew about three hours later, according to a person with knowledge of the talks. Banks and brokers began consolidating trades in which Lehman is involved to minimize the impact of a possible bankruptcy filing tonight.
The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve have struggled for three days to prevent the investment bank from failing before markets open tomorrow, people familiar with the situation said. With the two most serious bidders out of the picture, Lehman's options are few.
``The best case is that the Fed offers a 48-hour standstill by backing Lehman's liquidity directly to win time for other bidders to come forth or the previously interested parties to reconsider,'' said Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Haverford, Pennsylvania. ``The worst case is bankruptcy, and Lehman goes down the tube.''
Barclays walked away because it couldn't get guarantees from the government or agree on a private-sector deal to mitigate what it called Lehman's ``open-ended'' trading obligations, Leigh Bruce, a spokesman for the London-based bank, said in a phone interview today. Bank of America spokesman Scott Silvestri declined to comment. The Wall Street Journal reported that the bank had entered into merger talks with Merrill Lynch & Co., citing unidentified people.
Swaps and Derivatives
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, which has 218 banks as members, said in a statement today that it held a so-called netting session on Lehman trades to prepare for the New York-based firm's bankruptcy. The trades during the session will be annulled if there's no bankruptcy filing as of 11:59 p.m. in New York today, ISDA said.
Wall Street executives arrived at the New York Fed building in lower Manhattan this morning for a third day of discussions about a rescue plan. Among those present were Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit and Robert Wolf, chairman for the Americas at UBS AG. JPMorgan Chase & Co. sent CEO Jamie Dimon, Investment Bank Co-CEO Steven Black and General Counsel Stephen Cutler.
Lehman's bankruptcy wouldn't have as big an impact as the bankruptcy of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns Cos. or Countrywide Financial Corp., Egan Jones's Egan said.
``What the market has been telling us is that Lehman's equity and assets don't cover its liabilities, so the debt isn't worth 100 cents on the dollar,'' said Egan. ``That means credit default swaps on Lehman's debt will be triggered.''
Sealing Off Losses
Barclays's takeover approach depended on sealing off losses from Lehman's mortgage-related holdings, according to people familiar with the talks. New York-based Lehman has lost 94 percent of its market value this year after record losses from investments tied to mortgages.
``Barclays has its own problems,'' said Bruce Foerster, president of South Beach Capital Markets in Miami. ``So it's possible they realized they can't do this without government aid.''
The U.K. bank, which has taken $7.6 billion of writedowns on its mortgage positions in the past four quarters, raised 4.5 billion pounds ($6.4 billion) in a share sale in July. The bank's 5 billion pounds of buyout loans and 12 billion pounds of commercial mortgages may spur further markdowns, Collins Stewart analyst Alex Potter said last week.
`Wasn't Willing'
Barclays said it was approached by the U.S. Treasury at the end of last week and saw in Lehman ``a potential opportunity to significantly enhance our investment banking and investment management franchise in key areas.''
``The proposed transaction required a guarantee for the trading obligations of Lehman Brothers which was potentially open-ended,'' Barclays said in a statement. ``Barclays wasn't willing to assume such an open-ended obligation.''
New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, 47, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, 62, were pushing Wall Street to contribute money to a so-called bad bank that would assume at least some of Lehman's $50 billion of devalued real estate assets. That would have made it easier for a buyer to take over the rest of the company while the assets were sold off.
The approach was similar to one Lehman presented to investors last week, which the company said would cost $5 billion to $7 billion. The firm's mortgage-related assets have a face-value of about $74 billion before writedowns, based on figures the firm has reported. About another $10 billion of high-yield leveraged loans have been marked down to $7 billion during the past year, as market prices for the debt sank.
Fuld Forced
Led by Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, Lehman may be forced to liquidate unless buyers step up for all or part of the 158-year-old company, Paulson and Geithner told the heads of Wall Street's biggest firms at a meeting Sept. 12. Paulson has said he's reluctant to use government money to rescue Lehman.
Fuld, who built Lehman into the biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage securities during his four decades at the investment bank, was forced to consider a sale this past week after talks about a cash infusion from Korea Development Bank ended, eroding investor confidence and the company's market value.
Unlike when the Fed committed $29 billion to help JPMorgan take over Bear Stearns Cos. in March, Lehman has access to a lending facility for brokers that would permit an orderly process for unwinding the firm, the person said.
Paulson stepped in last week to guarantee the debt and mortgage-backed securities of home-loan financing companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Weil Gotshal
Lehman hired the New York law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges LLP to advise the company on a potential bankruptcy filing, the Journal reported yesterday, without saying where it got the information.
The government is probably concerned that panic may spread to other financial institutions, Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. analyst Richard Bove said. American International Group Inc., the largest U.S. insurer, and Seattle-based lender Washington Mutual Inc. each plummeted in New York trading last week on speculation about their financial health.
AIG may move up plans to raise capital or sell assets after the shares plunged 46 percent, according to a person familiar with the company. WaMu, which fell 36 percent, may sell parts of its nationwide bank-branch network to raise cash, according to L. William Seidman, a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
To contact the reporters on this story: Yalman Onaran in New York at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]; Craig Torres in Washington at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]
[
  • #113,172
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:35pm Sep 14, 2008 4:35pm
Unless there's a Lehman deal the bulls are turned into salami.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #113,173
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:40pm Sep 14, 2008 4:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
tired of arguing ... you have to watch what you post ... alot of new traders in here and they will just follow
and those new traders will be safer following your trades on the 100 tick chart???

This is my last post on this subject as well .. back to trading, to each his own and may we all win
  • #113,174
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:42pm Sep 14, 2008 4:42pm
Quoting slide
You guys talking thrash about the times we live and economy like the old people when they have nothing to do

So we have no Lehman deal, a devastating storm, $5 gallon gas, and all that guppy can make is a 300 points drop? lol..that's nothing

I have no position, but just wait for open to add a few to fill that gap; or, if it doesn't will still buy on dips as long as it stays above 188.80;

I expect the week to be bullish, the volumes have been thrown in already, and all they need to do now is to add on their longs;

And Lehman game is not over you'll see, it will be sold piece by piece.

Good luck with your businesses!


Slide, I'm not so sure. I respect your opinion and trading strategy, but for the short term, I don't see much life in the guppy.
  • #113,175
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:51pm Sep 14, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting lilmoe
before i go, i want add one thing...

i said there might be a gap next week..... No. but there will be, then it's down, but not a big one.


have a nice weekend everyone!!!
my prediction was based solely on charts, not lehman news.... but i did NOT expect it to go down that much!!! talk about super bullshit...
  • #113,176
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:53pm Sep 14, 2008 4:53pm
Quoting malcolmb14
tired of arguing ... you have to watch what you post ... alot of new traders in here and they will just follow
I really don't want to lead anyone astray. The point that I wanted to make is that "not trading over the weekend" is often stated dogmatically as a rule, and nothing is ever so simple.

I would add to any newbie that I spend 3 or 4 hours each day taking in information from all sources, and I often don't trade for weeks on end when I don't feel I understand what is going on. I also try to isolate myself from too much "noise"...i.e. unfiltered opinion such as the very brief unjustified predictions that appear on msg boards such as this. I found that when I first started reading these bulletin boards my trading got much, much worse. I found that the information I was reading, from unknown sources that I could not put a value too, was affecting my decision making.

I've missed a couple of huge drops/rises this year because I just haven't been able to understand them so have left well alone whilst people have been publishing pictures of WCs. I don't quite buy/feel comfortable about the arguments that have been put forward for the recent US strengthening. If I don't think I understand something, I leave it alone. Like many people, when I started trading I over traded. Learning when not to trade is probably one of the best things one can learn. (I've probably gone a little too far on the cautious side of things...though you probably wouldn't believe that given my opinion on gap trades.)

Hope that clarifies my position a little.

Edited to add: I also write down predictions in a diary. I give as much detail as I can. It helps a lot to be able to go back over what you actually thought and not what you remember you thought. Keeps you honest with yourself about your ability to gauge how things will turn out in the future. I tend not to make short term predictions either on msg boards...as I would never want anyone to trade based on my beliefs.
  • #113,177
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:54pm Sep 14, 2008 4:54pm
Quoting slide
You guys talking thrash about the times we live and economy like the old people when they have nothing to do

So we have no Lehman deal, a devastating storm, $5 gallon gas, and all that guppy can make is a 300 points drop? lol..that's nothing

I have no position, but just wait for open to add a few to fill that gap; or, if it doesn't will still buy on dips as long as it stays above 188.80;

I expect the week to be bullish, the volumes have been thrown in already, and all they need to do now is to add on their longs;

And Lehman game is not over you'll see, it will be sold piece by piece.

Good luck with your businesses!

lehman is declaring bankruptcy tonight ..
  • #113,178
  • Sep 14, 2008 5:01pm Sep 14, 2008 5:01pm
Quoting malcolmb14
this is scalpers paradise .. 100 tick chart moving 100 pip ranges in 400 ticks

spreads keeping me out of market for now ,, I will trade asia ... going to be hundred of pips to be made this week ... why rush in ?
What are the spreads on your dealer and what are they "normally"?
  • #113,179
  • Sep 14, 2008 5:04pm Sep 14, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting Spectator
I really don't want to lead anyone astray. The point that I wanted to make is that "not trading over the weekend" is often stated dogmatically as a rule, and nothing is ever so simple.

I would add to any newbie that I spend 3 or 4 hours each day taking in information from all sources, and I often don't trade for weeks on end when I don't feel I understand what is going on. I also try to isolate myself from too much "noise"...i.e. unfiltered opinion such as the very brief unjustified predictions that appear on msg boards such as this. I found that when I first started reading these bulletin boards my trading got much, much worse. I found that the information I was reading, from unknown sources that I could not put a value too, was affecting my decision making.

I've missed a couple of huge drops/rises this year because I just haven't been able to understand them so have left well alone whilst people have been publishing pictures of WCs. I don't quite buy/feel comfortable about the arguments that have been put forward for the recent US strengthening. If I don't think I understand something, I leave it alone. Like many people, when I started trading I over traded. Learning when not to trade is probably one of the best things one can learn. (I've probably gone a little too far on the cautious side of things...though you probably wouldn't believe that given my opinion on gap trades.)

Hope that clarifies my position a little.

Edited to add: I also write down predictions in a diary. I give as much detail as I can. It helps a lot to be able to go back over what you actually thought and not what you remember you thought. Keeps you honest with yourself about your ability to gauge how things will turn out in the future. I tend not to make short term predictions either on msg boards...as I would never want anyone to trade based on my beliefs.
new traders ... here is one trader that seems to understand risk management. There are some great points in this post that should be taken note of

you do not have to be in the market 100% of the time .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #113,180
  • Sep 14, 2008 5:05pm Sep 14, 2008 5:05pm
Spreads on IBFX is crazy right now 25 pips! on GJ WTF!
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