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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #113,101
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:06pm Sep 14, 2008 3:06pm
Dollar will fall further, more rate cuts will hjappen and GBP will rise. Mark my words. This is going to be ugly.
  • #113,102
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:07pm Sep 14, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting pipsy_2
bye bye world

A man after my own heart
  • #113,103
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:07pm Sep 14, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
not sure how long you have been trading ... but that trade was high high risk and not even trading it was gambling.

flip a coin ....with gaps sometimes stops are not hit. .... so even though you had a 100 pip you could have in fact taken a hit of more than that

I do not understand why gj moves hundred of pips in a regular market and there are all kinds of awesome trade to be made , when there is volume, and everyone is trying to make 100 - 200 pip during the weekend when there is no volume and Lehman issues are on the table ,.

If traders in this forum keep up this type of gambling they will not be here this time next year
Hmm...this is a bit harsh. If you bet your account on it sure...but otherwise this was a well judged gamble just like any other currency trade, especially if you have an account with guaranteed stops (such as the UK spread betting firms), where the fools are the spread betting company offering you this feature for a couple of points.

So far this year there have been a number of similar opportunities. The news is out there and if you have been following the parties involved for the past year, you must have a much better than 50/50 chance of guessing the outcome over the weekend. Add to this the asymmetry of a guaranteed stop distance relative to the size of the gap, and it is a trade with a high expected return. How exactly is that unprofessional?
  • #113,104
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:08pm Sep 14, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting markam
A man after my own heart
hmm why is he after your heart?
  • #113,105
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:16pm Sep 14, 2008 3:16pm
Friday Close:

GJ 193.49
EJ 153.42
UJ 107.93

Current prices per CNNFN:

GJ 189.79
EJ 150.81
UJ 105.53
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #113,106
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:22pm Sep 14, 2008 3:22pm
[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Mark/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-1.jpg[/IMG]Todays DOE numbers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: doe.jpg Size: 38 KB


Also 23% of Texas is without Electricity.
  • #113,107
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:22pm Sep 14, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting Spectator
Hmm...this is a bit harsh. If you bet your account on it sure...but otherwise this was a well judged gamble just like any other currency trade, especially if you have an account with guaranteed stops (such as the UK spread betting firms), where the fools are the spread betting company offering you this feature for a couple of points.

So far this year there have been a number of similar opportunities. The news is out there and if you have been following the parties involved for the past year, you must have a much better than 50/50 chance of guessing the outcome over the weekend. Add to this the asymmetry of a guaranteed stop distance relative to the size of the gap, and it is a trade with a high expected return. How exactly is that unprofessional?

harsh maybe .... but losing an account is even harsher. i do not consider chasing gaps and trying to guess them is good risk management. Just my thoughts ..... and those that do not manage risk will not be here next year. Simple as that
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #113,108
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:23pm Sep 14, 2008 3:23pm
Quoting sasi4ever
I have a live Bloomberg newsfeed..
Bank of America Corp. abandoned talks to buy Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., according to a person with knowledge of the matter, less than three hours after Barclays Plc said it wouldn't buy the faltering investment bank.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...qJ0&refer=home
Success has a Thousand Fathers.
  • #113,109
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:25pm Sep 14, 2008 3:25pm
The gap seems to be a 50% retrace of last weeks up trend, anyone think it will fill and continue to 198 to fill old gap and complete 50% retrace of big down trend or am i just crazy?
  • #113,110
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:25pm Sep 14, 2008 3:25pm
Bank of America, Merrill Lynch in merger discussions: WSJ (More details to come)
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #113,111
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:25pm Sep 14, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting Spectator
Hmm...this is a bit harsh. If you bet your account on it sure...but otherwise this was a well judged gamble just like any other currency trade, especially if you have an account with guaranteed stops (such as the UK spread betting firms), where the fools are the spread betting company offering you this feature for a couple of points.

So far this year there have been a number of similar opportunities. The news is out there and if you have been following the parties involved for the past year, you must have a much better than 50/50 chance of guessing the outcome over the weekend. Add to this the asymmetry of a guaranteed stop distance relative to the size of the gap, and it is a trade with a high expected return. How exactly is that unprofessional?
attention, i am harsh

BS... supported by your expressions that any other trade is a gamble... and that you think you know how the news will impact. you read it and judge it like everybody and so it should be. but i have reflected to that topic often enough. so please don't post such things in here, because newbies might note it and also think about trading this! and yes, it was TOTAL unprofessional and GAMBLING. if you had known the outcome of lehmanipulation and traded based on that- ok, but i am sure you misinterpret the news and take them like they should be taken.
  • #113,112
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:26pm Sep 14, 2008 3:26pm
i guess its true bank of a is out of lehman and might come to the rescue of merrill .. AIG and wamu might be introuble this week if lehman is let to fail ..
  • #113,113
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:28pm Sep 14, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting karmostaji
Bank of America, Merrill Lynch in merger discussions: WSJ (More details to come)
Wall Street readied for a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy after Bank of America Corp. and Barclays Plc pulled out of talks to buy it and the government indicated it wouldn't provide funds to prevent a collapse.
Banks and brokers today held a session for netting derivatives transactions with Lehman, or canceling trades that offset each other, in case the New York-based firm files for bankruptcy before midnight.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...6QM&refer=home
Success has a Thousand Fathers.
  • #113,114
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:30pm Sep 14, 2008 3:30pm
Quoting kayman
Wall Street readied for a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy after Bank of America Corp. and Barclays Plc pulled out of talks to buy it and the government indicated it wouldn't provide funds to prevent a collapse.
Banks and brokers today held a session for netting derivatives transactions with Lehman, or canceling trades that offset each other, in case the New York-based firm files for bankruptcy before midnight.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...6QM&refer=home

Guess I'll have to step in now.
  • #113,115
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:32pm Sep 14, 2008 3:32pm
But, last week when the qqe 4H crossed above 50 the 1H qqe was way above 50, so according to the rules we need a retrace of 1h and 1h crosses 50 again before we enter trade long, right?
  • #113,116
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:33pm Sep 14, 2008 3:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
mmm ... looks like cup has formed on cup and handle on 4 hour

now if the rumors of the Lehman deal not going that great are true we could see a $2 Lehman Monday morning , and a gap down

Looking forward and trying to put an education guess on this one ..... this looks like the formation of a cup and handle

The handle could retrace to 189.85 or even 188.75...

just an educated analysis....

or as I know you all miss my buddy 4x trader

JUST AN INFO NOT A RECO ....lol

Attachment
now does 190 hold ? or do we go straight down
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #113,117
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:38pm Sep 14, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting shiva
Guess I'll have to step in now.
yea go ahead Shiva.....I need to 'step in' the Men's Room .... brb ..
Success has a Thousand Fathers.
  • #113,118
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:38pm Sep 14, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting malcolmb14
harsh maybe .... but losing an account is even harsher. i do not consider chasing gaps and trying to guess them is good risk management. Just my thoughts ..... and those that do not manage risk will not be here next year. Simple as that
Hmm...if you risk only a few percent of your account I really don't see what the problem is. At the end of last week it was pretty clear that a deal was going to be difficult and anything done to get it through would also be reasonably bad new too. I've bet on weekend gaps 4 times this year when the conditions have been right...and they have all turned out...not enough to be statistically significant of course, but very profitable, considering the ratio of potential loss to potential gain...you only have to be right 50% of the time if the upside is significantly greater than the downside, and with proper risk management even such calculated gambles should lead to an account growing over time rather than blowing up...that is why you only risk 2%...it means you can screw up 50 times in a row before going bust...you have enough rolls of the dice for it to average out.

Just another perspective I suppose. Another advantage of a well calculated gap trade is that you cannot get panicked out of a position or close in profit too early. How many people do you know who close trades too early when in profit, or similar? Personally, I trade much better over a period of a few days rather than day trading. Too much noise within a day for my liking. Some people are good at it, but I am not.
  • #113,119
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:41pm Sep 14, 2008 3:41pm
pls i need the current price value of Gbp/usd and nzd/usd pleasss
  • #113,120
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:42pm Sep 14, 2008 3:42pm
Quoting malcolmb14
now does 190 hold ? or do we go straight down
I hope it holds for 20 more minutes so I can get in on the coming fall.
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