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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #113,021
  • Sep 14, 2008 8:45am Sep 14, 2008 8:45am
Quoting Scrat
i guess this means a gap up on g-j.
That would be my guess. When this manipulation ends, which it must, we are going see complete financial market collapse.
  • #113,022
  • Sep 14, 2008 8:48am Sep 14, 2008 8:48am
So what your forecast for the opening guys? a gap up and after we going down? or a huge gap down and lower levels afterwards?
  • #113,023
  • Sep 14, 2008 9:04am Sep 14, 2008 9:04am
Quoting robrub
but when we use the calculator http://money.cnn.com/data/currencies...ter/index.html the values are different

1.00
British Pound
= 191.55
Japanese Yen
It is correct

1.794 x 107.92 = 193.60
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #113,024
  • Sep 14, 2008 9:17am Sep 14, 2008 9:17am
I can't see how this futures vs spot differential can possibly exist. The october gasoline contracts will be settled in just a couple of weeks. If spot prices are high as they are now, the people holding the october contracts are going to be destroyed.

I also don't see how gasoline supplies are going to be increased enough in the next 2 weeks to bring spot prices down to the futures price.

Something is going to have to give, and it ain't going to be pretty.
  • #113,025
  • Sep 14, 2008 9:53am Sep 14, 2008 9:53am
Quoting markam
I can't see how this futures vs spot differential can possibly exist. The october gasoline contracts will be settled in just a couple of weeks. If spot prices are high as they are now, the people holding the october contracts are going to be destroyed.

I also don't see how gasoline supplies are going to be increased enough in the next 2 weeks to bring spot prices down to the futures price.

Something is going to have to give, and it ain't going to be pretty.

It is crazy, CLV8 [crude oil futures] closed @ 101.04 on Friday Night..

Now they are below the Magic line 100, @ 98.65 (and still falling) that's a huge gap for a weekend... (yes you are right, someone will Burn..)

As for me is a good sign for a GOOD reversal from here !!!
  • #113,026
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:02am Sep 14, 2008 10:02am
Quoting markam
[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Mark/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]Attachment

How screwed up is this? Futures trading opened early, and oil, gasoline and natural gas are all down big. This is at at a time that all oil and gas production in the gulf is shut down, the southeast is out of gasoline, and texas refineries may be down for a month.

Sometimes I am amazed beyond belief at the things that happen. I am 100% sure the Lehman fix is in.
It is possible, crude oil demand is decreased. As because of some refineries shut-down, crude oil supply is more than demand as of now ..
  • #113,027
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:03am Sep 14, 2008 10:03am
Bloomberg is reporting that Barclays has pulled out of the talks for Lehman.
  • #113,028
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:06am Sep 14, 2008 10:06am
Quoting markam
[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Mark/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]Attachment

How screwed up is this? Futures trading opened early, and oil, gasoline and natural gas are all down big. This is at at a time that all oil and gas production in the gulf is shut down, the southeast is out of gasoline, and texas refineries may be down for a month.

Sometimes I am amazed beyond belief at the things that happen. I am 100% sure the Lehman fix is in.
Link: http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/14/mark...ex.htm?cnn=yes
  • #113,029
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:07am Sep 14, 2008 10:07am
Quoting mktjong
It is possible, crude oil demand is decreased. As because of some refineries shut-down, crude oil supply is more than demand as of now ..
that doesn't explain why gasoline futures are down, when a quarter of our gasoline supply is off-line.
  • #113,030
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:09am Sep 14, 2008 10:09am
Quoting mktjong
Link: http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/14/mark...ex.htm?cnn=yes

If that is the case, then why the hell did oil future go down on Friday??????

that is one bullshit article.
  • #113,031
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:10am Sep 14, 2008 10:10am
Quoting markam
that doesn't explain why gasoline futures are down, when a quarter of our gasoline supply is off-line.
unbelievable manipulation. Best to stay completely out of this madness until everything returns to normal.
  • #113,032
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:15am Sep 14, 2008 10:15am
Quoting markam
that doesn't explain why gasoline futures are down, when a quarter of our gasoline supply is off-line.
Well, there is plenty in our strategic reserve. Plus, the report of damage is mild and would not affect future production. This is only a temporary or very brief chaos and traders focus on longer term .. hehehe .. I can come up with any logical or illogical sense .. anyway, that's what the market is reacting right now ..

  • #113,033
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:25am Sep 14, 2008 10:25am
Quoting mktjong
Well, there is plenty in our strategic reserve. Plus, the report of damage is mild and would not affect future production. This is only a temporary or very brief chaos and traders focus on longer term .. hehehe .. I can come up with any logical or illogical sense .. anyway, that's what the market is reacting right now ..

My other explanation why crude oil is sliding: Since early this year, we have seen crude oil is at peak. Consumers are screaming, economy is in collapsing mode. Government has been pressured to look for alternative energy. It has almost reached a consensus that "Green Energy" is the alternative and future energy resource. (Propaganda works )
Since then, we have started to see less and less crude oil in demand because of this change and it will keep going that way until another peak is reached where the green energy is not an alternative anymore ..
  • #113,034
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:34am Sep 14, 2008 10:34am
Just back from a long vacation to forex in view of limited time to concertrate on forex and inability to follow the markets due to limited internet connectivity . But now back again in full swing.

Looks like i choose a nice week to start with , given the fact that there might be immense volatility in asian session.

Hello markam,MalcolmB,Lilmoe and karmo.

I am looking at tenfore feeds . cannot understand its cross rates where it says USDJPY at 106.0 and GBPUSD at 1.789 but GJ at 192.23

Lots of accounts will be wiped out on open. those who are over leveraged. Good thing i didnt start trading last week .

Good luck to all this week.
  • #113,035
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:50am Sep 14, 2008 10:50am
yes, i read it too. but i can't find it on the first page @ bloomberg anymore... i'm posting the complete news here for who's interested:

"Barclays Withdraws From Lehman Talks Over Credit Guarantees
By Ben Livesey
Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third- biggest bank, pulled out of talks to buy Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. because it could not agree on terms to ring fence troubled assets at the U.S. investment bank.
Barclays dropped out of discussions to buy all or parts of New York-based Lehman because it could not secure guarantees from the U.S. government or agree on terms to mitigate potential losses in the firm's investment banking division, a London-based spokesman for Barclays said in a telephone interview today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Livesey in London [email protected]
Last Updated: September 14, 2008 13:11 EDT"

Quoting bigcoupe
Bloomberg is reporting that Barclays has pulled out of the talks for Lehman.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #113,036
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:09am Sep 14, 2008 11:09am
Quoting Scrat
yes, i read it too. but i can't find it on the first page @ bloomberg anymore... i'm posting the complete news here for who's interested:

"Barclays Withdraws From Lehman Talks Over Credit Guarantees
By Ben Livesey
Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third- biggest bank, pulled out of talks to buy Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. because it could not agree on terms to ring fence troubled assets at the U.S. investment bank.
Barclays dropped out of discussions to buy all or parts of New York-based Lehman because it could not secure guarantees from the U.S. government or agree on terms to mitigate potential losses in the firm's investment banking division, a London-based spokesman for Barclays said in a telephone interview today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Livesey in London [email protected]
Last Updated: September 14, 2008 13:11 EDT"
So scrat if nothing new happend in few hour then this mean for Short dollar ? or no ?
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #113,037
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:12am Sep 14, 2008 11:12am
I am sure things will get back to normal in no time in Texas

before

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After

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  • #113,038
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:14am Sep 14, 2008 11:14am
Quoting notme32
So scrat if nothing new happend in few hour then this mean for Short dollar ? or no ?
GJ down about 200 pips from fridays close.
  • #113,039
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:14am Sep 14, 2008 11:14am
Also keep in mind that Fed meeting soon, and sentiment is for more rate cuts.
  • #113,040
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:23am Sep 14, 2008 11:23am
Quoting markam
GJ down about 200 pips from fridays close.

now almost 300 pips
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