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NY Break Out

  • #121
  • Sep 13, 2008 10:54am Sep 13, 2008 10:54am
When placing the Limit orders, do you put a time-to-elapse period along with the order? Hopefully we will get 2 or 3 various answers. Thanks to all for the inputs, p.
  • #122
  • Sep 13, 2008 12:08pm Sep 13, 2008 12:08pm
Jeffng,
Many thanks for the EA. Will be testing Cable thoroughly first.
Any chance of having a setting for OCO on or off?
  • #123
  • Sep 13, 2008 12:12pm Sep 13, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting piprac
When placing the Limit orders, do you put a time-to-elapse period along with the order? Hopefully we will get 2 or 3 various answers. Thanks to all for the inputs, p.

Trading NY session, which is the intention of this thread.

In my opinion, holding a limit order after 2:00PM EST is not worth trying.

On Fridays, anything after 12M is not wotrh it either.
  • #124
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:21pm Sep 13, 2008 2:21pm
Quoting nomoretoxic
Trading NY session, which is the intention of this thread.

In my opinion, holding a limit order after 2:00PM EST is not worth trying.

On Fridays, anything after 12M is not wotrh it either.
Agree.
  • #125
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:23pm Sep 13, 2008 2:23pm
nomoretoxic,

Thank you for your input!

Your pullback method seems like it would prevent a lot of stop outs.

Could you tell us which pairs you trade?

Alexandra
  • #126
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:48pm Sep 13, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting pipping
nomoretoxic,

Thank you for your input!

Your pullback method seems like it would prevent a lot of stop outs.

Could you tell us which pairs you trade?

Alexandra
I normally trade GPB/USD at London Session but you can use it at any USD pair on NY session with no problem whatsoever. The least attractive of USD pairs for me is USD/JPY due lack of move. A/U is good too.

I have traded GPB/JPY with excellent results.

Breakouts happens everywhere and in my opinion there's no hard and fast rule, other than following simple steps I outlined before.

Remember this. on a pullback, you minimize risk of be stopped. Doesn't mean you won't get stopped out. I combine this method with another more aggressive method I have . I have my losing days but at the end of the month I always come in profit. By the way I live off trading exclusively.

I measure my results on a monthly basis despite I am a daytrader. I pay myself monthly as well. That way if I have some loses along the road, it doesn't affect me at all .

Box methods are simple. When you begin to throw indicators and stuff, it's exactly when you start losing money.



cheers
  • #127
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:52pm Sep 13, 2008 2:52pm
Thanks guess123 for re-starting this thread on a system which really seems to deserve it, and thanks Rialto for the fantastic indicator: BreakOut_PANCA_EAGLE_indicator, Posts #53 and #67.

This system reminds me of the "Daily Wealth Building Trading System" by tkimble whose threads had a large following. Unfortunately, was always siezed with fear and second-guessing when it came to trading tkimble's system, especially the weekly version, though - as a professional trader with something like thirty years' experience - tkimble alway made it a point in his posts that there was no predicting of price involved... Just set the stops and ignore it, somethin I was never able to do.

Having gaind 2 years experience in the meantime, and with the advantages of the BreakOut_PANCA_EAGLE_indicator - where it's possible to visually backtest your placement of the entrance stops - think i may be in for some profitable demo-ing.

Not wanting to be accused of doing anything half-assed, have selected for my first experiment with the Big Dog/NY Breakout System the GBP/JPY pair, which has been called the easiest and - because of it's uneaqualed-in-forex tendencey to "trend" - most profitable pair. (Though with experience trading this pair you will find that it is anythig but easy, and the trend is not necessarily your friend, esp. with those sudden fearful moves of 3- or 400 pips. It can go a long ways wrong, and fast.)

Have taken the liberty of adjusting the box in the PANCA indicator (2 hours, 14 minutes, and 60 **cking seconds ((A minute has 60 seconds, by the way, lest anyone become militaristically testy.)) to a location one hour later than prescribed above, i.e. 8:00-10:00 Eastern Time... since the NYSE actually opens at 9:30, although off-hours trading begins around 8:00 or 8:30 for the general public. (Usually forex starts any NY-session-impelled movement about 30 min. before the 9:30 opening.)

This is not to say that this positioning is best for the stops, but with the GBP/JPY pair it really seems to work well, though I havn't checked every single one of the @ 35 examples my MT4 is capable of producing at one time with the cross-hairs tool. Have not checked the EUR/USD or GBP/USD, though it looked like they might work better that way too.

The short sampling period (2-hours, 15-minutes) used in the Big Dog/NY Breakout system really seems to have major advantages over systems using a longer period. And provides major advantages for people like me whose psychical strength is pressed to the limit when holding trades more than a couple of hours, never mind over night.

Will see if am able to "set it and forget it" and hope to report back.
  • #128
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:54pm Sep 13, 2008 2:54pm
Nomoretoxic,

Thanks for your input. It's refreshing to be reminded that many of us make trading so much more complicated than it should be.
  • #129
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:59pm Sep 13, 2008 2:59pm
Confused here on your pullback entry method. Why wouldn't you have entered on the first blue candle when the price exceeded the box. Wasn't there a pullback, and then price went past the box. Looks like you waited for TWO pullbacks?
Quoting nomoretoxic
Well, finally managed to load the charts

see..... no wiggly lines, just price and common sense.

It's been said so many times that systems, strategies, etc. should be simple.

The market will tell you without any confused and twisted lines it's intentions.

Just follow the lead and you'll find consistency.

You're not looking to win every trade, just to be consistent....

Remember to use limit orders, always.
  • #130
  • Sep 13, 2008 3:03pm Sep 13, 2008 3:03pm
Quoting Rialto
Nomoretoxic,

Thanks for your input. It's refreshing to be reminded that many of us make trading so much more complicated than it should be.

Believe me, complicated stuff it's a big problem here at FF.

I started to be profitable in trading when I realized that trading is simple. I cleared off my charts and with just a couple of horizontal lines I was pulling off more money than any squiggly line ever invented. I am not a heavy poster here at FF but when I saw this thread I felt obligated to say something, as this is part of my everyday bread and butter.

Any questions don't hesitate to ask

Thanks by the way

cheers
  • #131
  • Sep 13, 2008 3:09pm Sep 13, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting paradoxical
Confused here on your pullback entry method. Why wouldn't you have entered on the first blue candle when the price exceeded the box. Wasn't there a pullback, and then price went past the box. Looks like you waited for TWO pullbacks?
the first blue candle is the actual breakout. As you see, there's a beige, yellowish horizontal line a top of the candle. None of the candles exceeded that one so no reason for me to get on a trade. Besides, I place a stop-limit (buy stop in this case) couple of pips away from that breakout candle. I have the charts loaded here again and notice the (entry) label, which is a long blue candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: breakout.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #132
  • Sep 13, 2008 3:17pm Sep 13, 2008 3:17pm
Quoting paradoxical
Confused here on your pullback entry method. Why wouldn't you have entered on the first blue candle when the price exceeded the box. Wasn't there a pullback, and then price went past the box. Looks like you waited for TWO pullbacks?
Ok here's another thing

Pullback is just an activity of the market in which it retraces or should I say, doesn't come back for a period of time to a particular price. Pullbacks could result in reversals. Well, we don't know so we need to play along . If the market comes back to that particular price and exceeds, there's a huge possibility that the market will keep going that way.

Pullbacks are all about price not about how many bars/candles. You could have a short one (1-2 bars/candles) or a long one .
  • #133
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:11pm Sep 13, 2008 4:11pm
Quoting brucewhain
Thanks guess123 for re-starting this thread on a system which really seems to deserve it, and thanks Rialto for the fantastic indicator: BreakOut_PANCA_EAGLE_indicator, Posts #53 and #67.

This system reminds me of the "Daily Wealth Building Trading System" by tkimble whose threads had a large following. Unfortunately, was always siezed with fear and second-guessing when it came to trading tkimble's system, especially the weekly version, though - as a professional trader with something like thirty years' experience - tkimble alway made it a point in his posts that there was no predicting of price involved... Just set the stops and ignore it, somethin I was never able to do.

Having gaind 2 years experience in the meantime, and with the advantages of the BreakOut_PANCA_EAGLE_indicator - where it's possible to visually backtest your placement of the entrance stops - think i may be in for some profitable demo-ing.

Not wanting to be accused of doing anything half-assed, have selected for my first experiment with the Big Dog/NY Breakout System the GBP/JPY pair, which has been called the easiest and - because of it's uneaqualed-in-forex tendencey to "trend" - most profitable pair. (Though with experience trading this pair you will find that it is anythig but easy, and the trend is not necessarily your friend, esp. with those sudden fearful moves of 3- or 400 pips. It can go a long ways wrong, and fast.)

Have taken the liberty of adjusting the box in the PANCA indicator (2 hours, 14 minutes, and 60 **cking seconds ((A minute has 60 seconds, by the way, lest anyone become militaristically testy.)) to a location one hour later than prescribed above, i.e. 8:00-10:00 Eastern Time... since the NYSE actually opens at 9:30, although off-hours trading begins around 8:00 or 8:30 for the general public. (Usually forex starts any NY-session-impelled movement about 30 min. before the 9:30 opening.)

This is not to say that this positioning is best for the stops, but with the GBP/JPY pair it really seems to work well, though I havn't checked every single one of the @ 35 examples my MT4 is capable of producing at one time with the cross-hairs tool. Have not checked the EUR/USD or GBP/USD, though it looked like they might work better that way too.

The short sampling period (2-hours, 15-minutes) used in the Big Dog/NY Breakout system really seems to have major advantages over systems using a longer period. And provides major advantages for people like me whose psychical strength is pressed to the limit when holding trades more than a couple of hours, never mind over night.

Will see if am able to "set it and forget it" and hope to report back.

Hmmmmm.....very interesting concept on the time of day issue, Bruce!
  • #134
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:19pm Sep 13, 2008 4:19pm
Nomoretoxic,

Am looking at GBP/JPY on 15M chart and don't see much in the way of pull-backs. It looks like - though hear it can be different in reality - you would loose a couple of trades in this situation if you waited for pullbacks. Do you use 5M always for GBPJPY?
  • #135
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:27pm Sep 13, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting nomoretoxic
Ok here's another thing

Pullback is just an activity of the market in which it retraces or should I say, doesn't come back for a period of time to a particular price. Pullbacks could result in reversals. Well, we don't know so we need to play along . If the market comes back to that particular price and exceeds, there's a huge possibility that the market will keep going that way.

Pullbacks are all about price not about how many bars/candles. You could have a short one (1-2 bars/candles) or a long one .

Hi Nomoretoxic,

I totally agree with you on the simplicity aspect. This strategy did not originally include MA's (and people were making pips) and the like but then as time goes on people add all kinds off stuff only because they see it work once or twice and think it will work all the time until it flops and then the thread gets exhausted etc, etc..
The point is you must lose sometimes,but some want to avoid a loss by whatever means but it is impossible to not lose.

ANyhow, I have questions. Suppose there is no pullback, do you still enter a trade?

How is your win/loss ratio on this strategy?

Visually backtesting (to January) the AUD/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/USD seems consistent. If you want each person to take on maybe 2 months back testing then combine the results for a year or so we should be able to do that if everyone chips in.

Just a suggestion let me know what you think.
  • #136
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:36pm Sep 13, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting brucewhain
Nomoretoxic,

Am looking at GBP/JPY on 15M chart and don't see much in the way of pull-backs. It looks like - though hear it can be different in reality - you would loose a couple of trades in this situation if you waited for pullbacks. Do you use 5M always for GBPJPY?

I have to confess that 15 min charts has been more like a decorative thing than anything else.

I am using 5 minutes. That's it. You can get on the party earlier in my opinion

GPY/JPY is fast 'n wild so I usually give the trade more room go.

Take a peek on EUR/JPY it's not as wild and gives nice swings.

Still like GPB/USD and EUR/USD better

If you lose a trade even on 5 minutes, I assure you more will come your way. As I combine the box with another stuff I use, I'm constantly play on the market without overtrading.
  • #137
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:57pm Sep 13, 2008 4:57pm
Quoting Hwd
Hi Nomoretoxic,

I totally agree with you on the simplicity aspect. This strategy did not originally include MA's (and people were making pips) and the like but then as time goes on people add all kinds off stuff only because they see it work once or twice and think it will work all the time until it flops and then the thread gets exhausted etc, etc..
The point is you must lose sometimes,but some want to avoid a loss by whatever means but it is impossible to not lose.

ANyhow, I have questions. Suppose there is no pullback, do you still enter a trade?

How is your win/loss ratio on this strategy?



Visually backtesting (to January) the AUD/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/USD seems consistent. If you want each person to take on maybe 2 months back testing then combine the results for a year or so we should be able to do that if everyone chips in.

Just a suggestion let me know what you think.

I enter a trade with another method I use if there's no pullback. But that is totally another concept not related with the box. Just in case, no squiggly lines whatsoever. All about price

I play both inside and outside the box.

My win/loss ratio is high on the wining side but I do lose even using both systems.


This is a game of probabilities

I am not a believer of backtesting. Balance/unbalance is constantly present on every market available. A powerful reason that invalidates any backtesting. Better to go with the flow.

Balance = price moving within a range

unbalance = price moving outside the range

the box will only tell you when the market goes off balance. I personally want to make sure the market has intentions to keep going that route hence the pullback.


Anything that makes you second guessing (too much analisys, indicators, test and re-test etc.) will take money out of your wallet, talking form personal experience.


My trading is profitable due three things

1) Money management - I play the market up to one limit. After that, I close the charts and watch a movie or something. Either if I win or lose.

2) Play the market - once conditions are met, entry (limit) stop loss/profit target WITHOUT SECOND GUESSING.

3) Stop listening to others and start listening to yourself -

Believe me, it works

cheers
  • #138
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:51pm Sep 13, 2008 5:51pm
Here are two 2-hour-&-15-minute (9 candles) Box indicators on two GBPJPY charts, starting 1-1/2 hours before the official opening of each exchange: London & NY (Complete - admittedly - with little squiglies! The long ones show the trend; short are relic from another system.) London is first.

The London open works a lot worse, especially where trend is starting to reverse. For opening of an exchange where GBP is important, signal is a lot less clear than US open.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: british open.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: us open.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #139
  • Sep 13, 2008 6:39pm Sep 13, 2008 6:39pm
Quoting brucewhain
Here are two 2-hour-&-15-minute (9 candles) Box indicators on two GBPJPY charts, starting 1-1/2 hours before the official opening of each exchange: London & NY (Complete - admittedly - with little squiglies! The long ones show the trend; short are relic from another system.) London is first.

The London open works a lot worse, especially where trend is starting to reverse. For opening of an exchange where GBP is important, signal is a lot less clear than US open.

need to clear your charts and start looking at the market as it is - price

this whole thing about counting candles and stuff is another way to get you up to the land of confusion.


Play the box as it is!!!

Here we go

1)Pull up 5 minutes charts in your favorite -flavored pair.

2) observe the market INSIDE THE BOX - screw the trend. You need to pay attention on where the market is heading inside the box. Stay tight to your system.

3) Once the box period is over, check 'n see if there's a breakout

4) if breakout occurs, wait for a pullback. Meanwhile, take a note(or draw an horizontal line as I show on the charts) of the PRICE at the last higher/high - lower low before the breakout - let's say the last high/low happened @ 1.3950 and then the market began to retrace form there, take a note of that and place a limit around 1.3953(if long) or 1.3947(if short)

5). Place a stop-loss at the other side of the breakout candle or at a reasonable distance to let the trade works its way - 20 pips is reasonable in my opinion.

6)Place a Take Profit at least 1:1 risk /reward (assuming 20 pips stop loss/20 pips profit target)

7)sit back and let the market do it's thing

8) wash, rinse and repeat everyday

If you get stopped out, look for the other side of the box and play the market. If nothing happens...I have a secret...come closer...shhhh don't tell anyone but

tomorrow is another day~~~~



This is how I do every day.

Make your life easy and get down to 5 minutes.


Again all markets are just price. I could even trade with no charts knowing how the market reacts on certain levels AKA price

There's so many variables on the market...I mean, momentum, trend, sentiment averages, etc . They're only made up to pull money out of your pocket my friend. You don't need any of that to make money in this business.


Stick to simple rules and you'll see what I am talking about

cheers
  • #140
  • Sep 13, 2008 7:46pm Sep 13, 2008 7:46pm
Quoting plind
On sonic's chart (post 113) what is the name of the indicator to place the red and blue dots on chart? Where can you download it? Thanks
It is called "Fractual",,,

HERE and HERE

this is all u need...

Sonic
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