Martingale Baggio Method

18% up this month.

Regards

Hello everybody,

up to now I only read the thread, and I found it very impressive.
The EA is very impressive to me, not only for the system but also for the coding. Congratulation, especially to rama and thanks to Xaron for the good setups.

I let the system run since last friday morning (with rest over the weekend), and I have a performance of about 17%, which is of course very good.

Well, if you like i would like to discuss a possible improvement of the system to handle the "death trade", margin call or whatever you like to say.

The ideas are influenced by other threads on ff which are dealing with martingale systems as well.

The idea is to "manage" the margin call and not to fear the margin call and to look at it like the rabbit to the snake.

If I understand the thread correctly (reports from xaron)as well as some backtests show, it is reasonable to get 30% performance per month with a probalitity of one margin call per year (please correct me if I'm wrong).

Thus, what about to look for maybe ten currency pairs, mostly not correlated, run them separatly and give them explicitly stop loss in order to avoid a margin call. The stop loss is calculated that the risk is 10% of the equity (which should be equivalent to a margin call with an account which is 1/10 of the original).
I will say to this death trade "margin call" with brackets beacause it is not any longer a margin call. You will lost about 10% of your equity.

Thus, in a month without a dead thread you make your 30%. In a month with a "margin call" in one currency pair you would make about (30% - the lost due to the "margin call" = 10%) 20%.
You should suffer from about 12 "margin calls" per year, but you have managed it.

I hope you got the idea, and I do not have made an error.

With regards, GuHu

anyone trade live with oanda using this sytem?

You can't do this manually - you have to sleep. You could code this into the API of course...

Regards - Xaron

GuHu: Welcome.

Good points, maybe there is a solution...

30% per month might be a little bit too high - 10-20% in average are possible, 1 MC per year might be true as well but one could get of course 3 margin calls in a month one after each other - noone knows.

The problem with a stop of 10% is just that I'm more than once per month in the red (net asset value) more than these 10%...

Will have to check this...

Regards - Xaron

Hello Xaron,
thank you for the welcome !
30% per month is not necessary, necessary is a positive expectancy overall and that should be there. Then it doesn't matter wether there are 3 mc in a month or none. The suggested improvement smoothes out the equity curve.

The stop loss should not be 10% but calculated as follows:

Let's have a look at your setup. As I understand you correctly, you trade with 2.000 Euros and a initiallotsize of 0.02.
If you start a martingale cycle in your current setup with an equity of 2000 euros with for an example 9 Maxtrades, you can immediatly calculate the price where your account blow up. This price will be the stop loss prize.

Then you can increase your account to 20.000 Euros and trade 10 currency pairs together. (it will be impossible to find 10 pairs, 5 will be better as well).

The impact of such a "margin call" in one currency pair will be reduced significantly.

GuHu

Ah now I got it. That way you would make about 2-3% per month (not that bad with 20k) but will lose 10% in case of a "simulated margin call".

You could create 5-10 subaccounts (no problem with most MT4 market makers) and deposit 2k in each and just let it go... Should be the same.

BTW: I use 0.01 lot for every 2k €. But I trade 2 pairs in my (3k) account, with 0.02 lot starting size each (I should use only 0.01, but I've increased my risk, I'll raise to 0.03 lots if I reach 6k in my account, so 0.01 for every 2k).

Regards - Xaron

Hi all,

Sorry for my bad English, i'm french.

My challenge : start with 250€ (min) in ActivTrades because i like this Martingale


So, i have backtesting Martin during 6 month and optimized 3 pairs : EUR-USD / USD-JPY and GBP-USD.
After it, i have added a send mail function and add the excellent automatic order management Swiss Army (http://www.forex-tsd.com/expert-advi...anagement.html).

I have started Martin the 06 August in real mode with these 3 pairs + SwissArmy.

Thank to Rama and Xaron for the big work !!

Please find my report.

http://www-ht-npdc.com/Report_Martin...ement_1209.gifhttp://www.ht-npdc.com/Report_Martin...ement_1209.gif

http://www.ht-npdc.com/Report_Martin...ement_1209.htm

Great results, keep it up and keep us updated ....

hi, i ve been using something similar on my demo to hedge the trades in the case the sereies climb to much (floating pl >20%, for example), but i am not sure which are the best settings to set the Swiss Army EA. Wich parameters are you using? i could not see orders managed by Swiss Army EA in your report.
Thanks

Hi pstrader,

I just use the MaxLoss_Dollar parameter.

Hello Straasha,
Those are impressve results, can you tell us what are your settings in the martingale Baggio andd the swiss army . I would like try testing it.
Tks

Ok Thanks for your answer.
And how are you managing the tradees .... hedging?, closing?

Swiss army is use just for close all open orders when MaxLossDollar = xxx $

Please find my settings :

Straasha,
Thank you for the settings, but tell me what your setting is for Swiss Army for max losses?
Also what version are you using, some of the settings in VS3.3 don't include some options that you have in your set file.

Tks :-)

Hi Straasha,

thank you very much for sharing your work. I do not understand your backtest. Do you have backtested a period of 6 months or do you have worked 6 months on your backtest?
A period of 6 months for backtesting is much too short for a martingale system! It is dangerous. I have backtested your parameters sincd 01/2004 and not all of them showed a profit. If you do not see a death trade in your backtest the period is too short.

I do not see the general advantage of the swiss army in comparison with the external parameters already implemented in the system (up to a stop loss). If you limit the drawdown it is a little bit similar to reduce maxtrades.

But maybe I misunderstand your approach totally.

GuHu

Hai,
If you get about 5$ per week, it means 250$ per year, not 1,200$. Isn't it?

Hello,

I am French and I have read this discussion for several months, cheer with Rama and Xaron for their work and their division.

Straasha I also followed your tests on Mataf, thank you for the division, I do not include/understand “Swiss army is uses just open for closed Al orders when MaxLossDollar = xxx $” I do not find a Maxdollar parameter
regards

My friend use a hedged Martingale. It trade only in one direction at a time. the result link: http://globalagencydirect.net/Forex_EA/

All Martingale systems do not work and the type of hedging that most use in forex is also a loser, combining the above two you might as well just make a donation to your broker because that is basically what you are doing.

Martingale does not work stay away from that system.