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NZDUSD Discussion

  • #281
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:20pm Sep 10, 2008 2:20pm
Pirin,

Good to have you around bro, not a lot of Kiwi traders.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #282
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:32pm Sep 10, 2008 2:32pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Pirin,

Good to have you around bro, not a lot of Kiwi traders.
Agreed.


So support at 0,6450 is out of play then?
  • #283
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:35pm Sep 10, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Pirin,

Good to have you around bro, not a lot of Kiwi traders.
Thanks man, glad to have found the place where we could share ideas. There is something about NZD ... ever since I began trading it I had nothing but good experience with it.
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  • #284
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:38pm Sep 10, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting Lenart
Agreed.


So support at 0,6450 is out of play then?
Thanks. Yup, I think so, but I haven't read the statement yet. The way that Oanda brought the news to me, yes. If they have really said that there are going to be further rate cuts, and begin with 0,5 before saying it, this means they mean business. It would be the best possible scenario.
  • #285
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:40pm Sep 10, 2008 2:40pm
Here's news release from RBNZ home page:
The Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points from 8.0 percent to 7.5 percent. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: “The New Zealand economy is experiencing a marked slowdown, led primarily by the household sector. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further in the wake of continued financial market turmoil. In addition, the New Zealand business sector is coming under pressure from both rising costs and falling demand. While domestic activity is likely to pick up late this year as a result of personal tax cuts, increased government spending and rising rural incomes, we expect a prolonged period of household sector adjustment and below-average growth.
“The weakness in economic activity is expected to translate into lower inflation pressures in the medium term. Headline inflation is expected to peak around 5 percent in the current September quarter before trending down thereafter. However, food price inflation, exchange rate depreciation and higher wage costs will tend to keep headline inflation at elevated levels through 2009.
“With medium-term inflation pressures expected to ease, it is appropriate to move towards a less restrictive monetary policy stance. Compared to the June Monetary Policy Statement, we have brought forward some of the projected interest rate reduction, but have not altered the expected overall decline. We believe this response is warranted in light of the tightness of current credit conditions and the time it will take to affect the actual interest rates faced by households and businesses.
“Looking ahead, the scale and timing of further official cash rate reductions will depend on signs of declining inflation pressures and on exchange rate adjustments.”

Source: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2008/3416797.html
  • #286
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:42pm Sep 10, 2008 2:42pm
FWIW I see some people thinking long. I'm not thinking about long till we hit at least 6000
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #287
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:43pm Sep 10, 2008 2:43pm
USD weakness could cause some retrace though ... I don't expect any big ones, but 4 consecutive red bars on the monthly chart make me nervous.
  • #288
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:51pm Sep 10, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting DutchTrader
FWIW I see some people thinking long. I'm not thinking about long till we hit at least 6000
May I ask what does FWIW mean?
  • #289
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:53pm Sep 10, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting DutchTrader
FWIW I see some people thinking long. I'm not thinking about long till we hit at least 6000
for What its worth imvho
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #290
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:54pm Sep 10, 2008 2:54pm
Quoting Lenart
May I ask what does FWIW mean?
For what it's worth.

Pirin,

The speed of the decline's been impressive. I'll be looking to book profits and perhaps short on a retrace provided we break through long term support at 6400ish tonight. If not I expect some consolidation btw 6600/6400 and then bukkake towards 5900 and then we go bulliish again. Not till 09 though.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #291
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:55pm Sep 10, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting Lenart
“Looking ahead, the scale and timing of further official cash rate reductions will depend on signs of declining inflation pressures and on exchange rate adjustments.”
Thanks, Lenart. The RBNZ has an even more offensive monetary policy against inflation than the ECB. But "scale and timing" are definitely better than "probable rate reductions" or something like that which could bring uncertainty about the future monetary policy. So ... let's just hope that the drawings of our friend,5ysfx, doesn't cause the expected effect on the currency market. peace 5ysfx, i hope the market didn't hit you too hard.
  • #292
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:59pm Sep 10, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting DutchTrader
and then bukkake towards 5900


I can't wait to use the nzd as a carry either, ... once they bring the rate to 6,5 or 6,25 % I'm going in with the long nzd/jpy
  • #293
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:00pm Sep 10, 2008 3:00pm
Pirin, Duch Trader, Toyboy tramp: thanks for explanation.
I'm not up to date with achronims...
  • #294
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:04pm Sep 10, 2008 3:04pm
But damn, I knew they were going to cut with 0,5 ... I just knew it ... The price action was definitely indicating 0,5 .... I'm so stupid, won't be able to sleep tonight
  • #295
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:11pm Sep 10, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting Pirin
I'm so stupid, won't be able to sleep tonight
Why is that?
You predicted correctly. I thought/hoped for ,5 cut too, felt strong about it, but couldn't open new shorts at 0,6680. Fear I guess...
  • #296
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:15pm Sep 10, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting Lenart
Why is that?
You predicted correctly. I thought/hoped for ,5 cut too, felt strong about it, but couldn't open new shorts at 0,6680. Fear I guess...
I just added more shorts at .653....probably an impatient trigger finger to blame for that...
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #297
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:19pm Sep 10, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting Lenart
Why is that?
You predicted correctly. I thought/hoped for ,5 cut too, felt strong about it, but couldn't open new shorts at 0,6680. Fear I guess...
Yes but I was thinking about adding more shorts from 6750, but I said to myself that I don't want to put too much margin on a single currency pair ... now I have the add ons from 6570 ... Could of make 200 extra pips if I was following the price action. Actually in the moment we broke through 6820 I began thinking about 0,5 cut ... but ok, it's in the past now, opportunity costs as people say I'll get a cold shower and go straight to bed. Good night folks
  • #298
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:21pm Sep 10, 2008 3:21pm
Quoting Pirin
Yes but I was thinking about adding more shorts from 6750, but I said to myself that I don't want to put too much margin on a single currency pair ... now I have the add ons from 6570 ... Could of make 200 extra pips if I was following the price action. Actually in the moment we broke through 6820 I began thinking about 0,5 cut ... but ok, it's in the past now, opportunity costs as people say I'll get a cold shower and go straight to bed. Good night folks
Make sure you wash that funny smelling area
  • #299
  • Sep 11, 2008 1:59am Sep 11, 2008 1:59am
Quoting Pirin
Yes but I was thinking about adding more shorts from 6750, but I said to myself that I don't want to put too much margin on a single currency pair ... now I have the add ons from 6570 ... C
Just to make clear. I have few short allright. From 6770, 6670 and 6560.
If it wasn't for fear I'd own short from 6680 (had order open, could'n click OK button) and 6740 (same here).
OK don't be greedy Lenart... Greed is as harmful as fear. Let's just celebrate pips.
  • #300
  • Sep 11, 2008 2:51am Sep 11, 2008 2:51am
Quoting NuckingFuts
Make sure you wash that funny smelling area
Almost forgot it, thanks for reminding me

Quoting Lenart
Just to make clear. I have few short allright. From 6770, 6670 and 6560.
If it wasn't for fear I'd own short from 6680 (had order open, could'n click OK button) and 6740 (same here).
OK don't be greedy Lenart... Greed is as harmful as fear. Let's just celebrate pips.
I always watch out to do not get too involved in a single pair. As soon as I have more than 3 % of my account as margin in a single currency pair I start to chew my nails.
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