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University of Trading- BEAT THE BROKER

  • #41
  • Sep 8, 2008 11:09am Sep 8, 2008 11:09am
Quoting tenantro
lol at tdion and ronald raygun. i just love it when someone completely misses the point.

they do mean the same thing actually, no matter which one is used.it means the system is quite profitable and that it could be made more/less profitable depending on how much appetite for risk someone has.
you're both on my ignore list now btw.
Sorry to be a bit off topic but I cannot this one let go like that (sorry hms for the disruption)
Pips are not equal to percents except in some specific cases.
There are interesting cases where you are positive in percent and negative in pips or the opposite. So not quite equivalent isn't it.
If these kind of cases are not obvious for some people they really need to go back of the basics about what is a currency pair, how it moves and what is a value of a pip.

And by the way if you put in your ignore list all people who have understood that pips and percents are different you will only have left the people who started Forex last week.
  • #42
  • Sep 8, 2008 10:45pm Sep 8, 2008 10:45pm
Giraia,

A dear friend of HMS has been discussing this strategy for the last month or so on another forum.
  • #43
  • Sep 9, 2008 1:58am Sep 9, 2008 1:58am
Quoting hms
Good morning everyone,

I'd like to start by talking about Moving Averages (MAs).

When our various MAs are close together, in a relaxed state is what I'm looking for. I want to enter a position on the the breakout of this. This should then align the MAs it the correct numerical order. Lets take the cable 1 hour chart as an example. The same principle applies on a longer/shorter time frame.

Note how throughout July, cable was oscillating within a range. As it broke to the downside the red and blue line (our 4hr 20 & 4hr 50) were setup
for a short at 1.9700. I will discuss the CCI separately, but just using the MAs this could have been held until the break of the red line at 1.8680. A single 1000 pip trade without even using the CCI.

Another example of using the MAs with the powerful 1-2-3 move...

Here we let the initial break happen (1), let it retrace (2) then if it finds support or resistance against a MA, starts to move (3) the entry.

An example of this would be on EURUSD. Top left of the chart is a small range. Price fell through, made a lower low (1), but we don't know if it is a false move as this point. It then retraced back to the 1 hour 20MA (red line) (move 2) and found resistance. On the first red heiken would be the entry (3) at around 1.4480. I actually missed this one, I'll show you the one I took.

On the same chart, the same moved started at the 1.4480 level. As I missed it, I let it run down to 1.4210 (1), then let it retrace to the thick red line/1 hour 20 (2), I placed a trend line, on the break of that at 1.4270 I entered a short with a target of the previous low.

Moving forward, note what happened to the 21 CCI when I entered the trade. It went from positive to negative. We'll discuss this in more detail.

I hope that makes sense.

Regards
H
Many years ago I was more successful trader than I am today; having no knowlege what this indictor is about I just simply put an ADX indicator on my H4 chart giving it the various values I could think about; when all of them were aligned I would take a trade; - it worked so well - I thought I am a new genius trader in forex! Unfortunately I abandoned this simple principle thinking that more experienced traders do more money than me, so why don't follow them? I even didn't bother to save a template (who needs 400% increase every month when others most probably do 10000's % increse) and never ever I was able to repeat that magnificent performance in my account based just on a common sense.
Of all your recommended charts I did just one, H4 chart, and from what I saw - that's it; the simple allignment of indicators I can relay on, otherwise just skip the trade and wait.
So now I am all ears, please, speak more.
  • #44
  • Sep 9, 2008 2:14am Sep 9, 2008 2:14am


Quoting jlpi
And by the way if you put in your ignore list all people who have understood that pips and percents are different you will only have left the people who started Forex last week.
  • #45
  • Sep 9, 2008 11:00am Sep 9, 2008 11:00am
Quoting Rialto
Giraia,

A dear friend of HMS has been discussing this strategy for the last month or so on another forum.
ok, Thanks.
  • #46
  • Sep 9, 2008 11:55am Sep 9, 2008 11:55am
Another powerful indicator id the CCI.

This is a momentum indicator which shows the trend and provides some great entry points.

The important levels to be aware of are the 00. The top CCI always represents the 21CCI on all time frames. The middle shows the next time frame above (apart from 30 min), and the bottom being a trigger indicator. Lets take an example. On a 15 min chart the top CCI is the 21. The top one being the 1 hour 21 CCI and the bottom is the 5 min 21 CCI.

EURUSD- In an overall longer term down trend, 15 min chart shows lower lows. The 5 min 63 CCI is example of when to enter when the 252 cci is already in the direction. So if the 252 is in negative, the 15 min trend is down. As the 63 CCI pops up above 0, goes green and which shows a retracement within a down trend then as it breaks through
0, is this not an example of a great entry?

I have attached a chart with EURUSD showing three possible entries marked with a vertical red line. I'd like you to note where the longer term 252 CCI is and where the top 63 CCI at each entry point.

Entry 1 (02.09.08)- 252 cci is in minus. As the 63 cci breaks through 00 and through the support line. A nice entry for a short position at 1.4565


Entry 2 (03.09.08)- 252 cci is in minus. As the 63 cci breaks through 00 and through the support line. A nice entry for a short position at 1.4500

NO ENTRY- (04.09.08) Although the 63 cci broke through 00 the 252 was now in postive and therefore this was NOT a valid entry.

I hope this makes sense.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcci.gif Size: 53 KB
  • #47
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:32am Sep 10, 2008 3:32am
Quoting hms
Another powerful indicator id the CCI.

This is a momentum indicator which shows the trend and provides some great entry points.

The important levels to be aware of are the 00. The top CCI always represents the 21CCI on all time frames. The middle shows the next time frame above (apart from 30 min), and the bottom being a trigger indicator. Lets take an example. On a 15 min chart the top CCI is the 21. The top one being the 1 hour 21 CCI and the bottom is the 5 min 21 CCI.

EURUSD- In an overall longer term down trend, 15 min chart shows lower lows. The 5 min 63 CCI is example of when to enter when the 252 cci is already in the direction. So if the 252 is in negative, the 15 min trend is down. As the 63 CCI pops up above 0, goes green and which shows a retracement within a down trend then as it breaks through
0, is this not an example of a great entry?

I have attached a chart with EURUSD showing three possible entries marked with a vertical red line. I'd like you to note where the longer term 252 CCI is and where the top 63 CCI at each entry point.

Entry 1 (02.09.08)- 252 cci is in minus. As the 63 cci breaks through 00 and through the support line. A nice entry for a short position at 1.4565


Entry 2 (03.09.08)- 252 cci is in minus. As the 63 cci breaks through 00 and through the support line. A nice entry for a short position at 1.4500

NO ENTRY- (04.09.08) Although the 63 cci broke through 00 the 252 was now in postive and therefore this was NOT a valid entry.

I hope this makes sense.

I hope this will give you idea of what is CCI and how we get fool with giving different names to foolish indicatores.
check attached chart.
i just put SMA21 and CCI 21. CCI cross above 0...... price cross above SMA21.
What's use of CCI ? it dose not show anything. just SMA is sufficient.

Same way check RSI 21 and Smooth moving average 21. and then
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sma21 and cci 21.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #48
  • Sep 12, 2008 2:04am Sep 12, 2008 2:04am
If oil can break 101.70 area, there could be a play north for 40 odd points.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil12sept.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #49
  • Sep 12, 2008 2:25am Sep 12, 2008 2:25am
EURUSD has broken its four hour 20 and the cci 84 has just broken through 00. If it can find support around the 4060 level a play north towards 1.4200 may be on the cards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd12sept.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #50
  • Sep 12, 2008 2:29am Sep 12, 2008 2:29am
A nice morning to end the week to..

Banked 45 in EURUSD and 40 in Cable... holding gold and crude.

Regards

H
  • #51
  • Sep 12, 2008 2:32am Sep 12, 2008 2:32am
Closed gold for +40 pips. :-)
  • #52
  • Sep 12, 2008 2:38am Sep 12, 2008 2:38am
Quoting hms
If oil can break 101.70 area, there could be a play north for 40 odd points.

There it is, another 40 in the bag.
  • #53
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:57am Sep 15, 2008 12:57am
Good morning everyone,

Crude is still falling with it reaching below $100. The trend will continue lower until the 60min 20 ma finds support. Further USD weakness should continue on the back of this after some big gains in the last 4 weeks.

The 4 hr 20ma is key, always trade with this. If my candles are below then trade as a short.

Gold is finding resistance at the 4hr 50ma and could fall back to the 60 min 20ma. The 84 CCI has crosses positively so be aware. Crude will pull this around so be aware.

EURUSD & Cable have retraced with USD weakness but the daily 20ma (480) will show a small amount of resistance here. Look for retracements 1st back to the 4hr 20 (80ma) or the daily pivots before building a position.

If we are to see USD weakness then crude will need to find support first.
  • #54
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:13am Sep 15, 2008 1:13am
looking at a short on gold to the 1 hr 20 as it is finding resistance at the 1hr 50ma
  • #55
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:54am Sep 15, 2008 1:54am
just closed eurusd for 50 points and gold for 20
  • #56
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:56am Sep 15, 2008 1:56am
If crude can break the 15min 20 and find support of it, we may see an attempt to close the gap to the 1hr 20.
  • #57
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:06am Sep 15, 2008 2:06am
Cable is looking very week, targeting 1.7950!
  • #58
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:17pm Sep 15, 2008 12:17pm
Hi, was anyone is any of the trades discussed earlier?
  • #59
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:21pm Sep 15, 2008 12:21pm
I've been asked by a few people to discuss the strategy in more detail so I have complied a few points.

The three step trade.

Many people have asked me how to get the longer, often more profitable trades. It happens to many us; we get caught in trading small time frames that we miss the bigger opportunities. I have devised a set of objective rules that many successful traders follow and would like to take the opportunity to share it with you. It is based on three steps, alert, confirm and enter.

If you have any constructive criticisms, suggestions or questions, I’d love to hear from you. You can email me at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color].

SETUP

As the name suggests, this strategy only requires the 1hr chart. I am using same template that I have discussed in my thread. However, you can set it up with the following settings:

Moving Averages (MA):
Simple 80
Simple 200

CCIs: 21 & 84 with 0 as a level.

Step 1- Alert
Look for the cross of the two moving averages. When they cross, you are only looking to take a position in the direction of the 80ma. So if the cross has happened and the 80 is above the 200, you are only looking for a long.

Step 2- Confirmation
The 84 CCI must be in positive if you are looking for a long and in negative if you are looking for a short.

Step 3- Enter
Wait for the 21 CCI to break the 0 level in the opposite direction that you intend to take a position. Then as it breaks the 0 level again in the direction you are looking to take a position, you enter.


Stop Loss Level:

Your stop loss should be above/below the significant high/low on the same 1 hour chart. Ideally, this should be above/below the cross of the moving averages.

Exit:

Exiting a trade is a more personal matter. Based on this strategy you would exit the trade when three candles close above/below the 80 ma.

Examples 1

May I suggest opening the “threestep-no trade” chart which is attached.

1 Alert- You can see that we had the cross of the moving averages, so you would be looking for a long position. (1st vertical line)

2 Confirmation- Please note that the 84 CCI has broken down below the 0 line (2nd vertical line). Therefore you would not be looking to continue. The 84 CCI MUST be positive for a long trade.

3 Entry- Hopefully you will be thinking “what entry”, precisely, there’s no entry here. Start again.

Example 2
Kindly open the 2nd chart “threesteptrade”.

1 Alert. You can see that we have had the cross of the moving averages (1st vertical line). What way are you looking to trade? I trust you’ll be shouting “short”. Good stuff.

2. Confirmation- the 84 CCI remains negative.

3. Entry – The 2nd vertical line shows where the 21 CCI breaks into positive and then falls bellow the 0 line and that’s your entry at 108.70. (break of the support line was a possible entry if you were quick)

Stop Loss- At 112

Exit- you would still be holding this trade as three candles have not closed above your 80 ma.


Back test it and let me know what you think.

Regards,

Hemal
.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: threestep-notrade.gif Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: threesteptrade.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #60
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:24pm Sep 15, 2008 12:24pm
Something to watch-

(sorry there has been a slight delay in uploading this due to some technical issues with my internet)

GBPUSD-
Look at the 60 point gap between the 80 & 200 ma. Also the angle of the 80 ma, it’s curving off and ready to attack the 200ma. If it crosses, that’s your Alert, if the 84 CCI remains positive and the 21CCI retraces I’ll be looking for a long position. There is some turbulence around the 1.8100 level, but if it can break this the next target would be 1.8700.

GOLD- This is more risky as the 1hr moving averages are not setup as yet.
However, with lower lows and highs, the 84CCI has been in negative for some time. On Friday, gold broke above the daily pivot, retraced and found support on the same pivot level. Potentially, this is worth a cheeky play for a long, with a stop below the pivot. Also the 1 hour 20 may cross the 1 hour 50 which would be a positive sign. I’d suggest waiting for this cross to occur first and apply the same, “three step” procedure.

USDJPY- I’ve just come across something which caught my attention. Have a look at the attached USDJPY daily chart. For a longer term short position I’d be looking for the 84 CCI to drop into negative, the 21 to go into positive then drop down again. I’d be looking for the price to retrace slightly towards 110, making a double top before entering. Although I prefer the downside potential with this, alternatively, if the 100MA crosses the 250MA and the CCI’s confirm an entry a possible long play may be in sight
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