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the Set and Forget Pivot Net system

  • #141
  • Sep 8, 2008 12:44am Sep 8, 2008 12:44am
Quoting jlryan87
How about the effect of daylight savings? Does the system have any modifications to the trading time when daylight saving ends?
Great question. As a matter of fact it does. We will go to 10:00 PM CST once daylight savings time is over. As that is the time when Oanda ends their daily candles. Of course when we get to that date we'll discuss it again just to make sure everyone is on the same page.
  • #142
  • Sep 8, 2008 12:54am Sep 8, 2008 12:54am
Quoting blueace
Great question. As a matter of fact it does. We will go to 10:00 PM CST once daylight savings time is over. As that is the time when Oanda ends their daily candles. Of course when we get to that date we'll discuss it again just to make sure everyone is on the same page.
That was quick, blueace
  • #143
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:24am Sep 8, 2008 8:24am
Quoting blueace
Hey Gnllr I'm a pilot too. Glad you joined the thread.
Cool. Do you fly professionally? If so, who do you fly for? I'm on the E170/175 for Shuttle America (United and Delta). As fun as it is, I'd rather be a full time trader, working out of the house...maybe one day .

Glen
  • #144
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:35am Sep 8, 2008 8:35am
I read somewhere that there are a lot of pilots in Forex trading, presumably because in their profession they have to be good at following rules to the letter. I found that interesting. Makes sense, I guess.

Scott

Quoting gnllr
Cool. Do you fly professionally? If so, who do you fly for? I'm on the E170/175 for Shuttle America (United and Delta). As fun as it is, I'd rather be a full time trader, working out of the house...maybe one day .

Glen
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #145
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:38am Sep 8, 2008 8:38am
Hey guys. Looks like the only opportunity we may have so far for a trade tonight is the UJ. Will check in later tonight to see where it ends up, but it will probably end up greater than last week's average.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #146
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:18am Sep 8, 2008 9:18am
Just found this thread and wondered how much success you have with your other set and forget strategies.
  • #147
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:38am Sep 8, 2008 9:38am
Quoting thehenryfam
I read somewhere that there are a lot of pilots in Forex trading, presumably because in their profession they have to be good at following rules to the letter. I found that interesting. Makes sense, I guess.

Scott
Or that the airline industry is in such shambles.... We do have a good amount of time off, so that helps too.
  • #148
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:51am Sep 8, 2008 9:51am
Quoting gnllr
Cool. Do you fly professionally? If so, who do you fly for? I'm on the E170/175 for Shuttle America (United and Delta). As fun as it is, I'd rather be a full time trader, working out of the house...maybe one day .

Glen
Actually I had a small charter service for local businessmen in a C-182. When I got married I needed insurance and a steady paycheck. So I had to take a 'real' job. I'm using forex to get back in the air. Fuel prices aren't helping my cause.
  • #149
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:59am Sep 8, 2008 9:59am
Can anyone tell me how I find more info on The Real Thing's First Strike and One Night Stand? I did a search on FF and come up empty.
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Guys,
I like the idea of this system and wanted to backtest it, without it taking too long. So I modified the Pivot Lines indicator by Jason Normandin - taking out the S3 and R3 and putting in the TP lines for the long and the short trade. I also fixed it so it does not calculate using any Sunday data. If it backtests good enough, then you can trade on a Monday using the Pivots calculated from Friday's data.
Since it is a pain to have to calculate the avearge daily range for the week, I modifuied the indicator to calculate the average daily range for the last 5 days (excluding Sunday again) and only display the TP lines if the previous day's range was less than that of the last 5 days. This was easier than working it out for the last calendar week and I think it should be good enough.

Check it out and let me know if you find any errors in the code.

I did some backtested which was disappointing, but i have just realised that I was using the wrong pivot calculation time. I had thought that BlueAce was calculating the pivots at 17:00 EST but just not entering the orders until 00:00 EST. |I have modified my default Dailystart time now and the values for my pivots seem to be close to those reported by BlueAce but I am using FxPro which is on GMT+3.

I have not had time to re-do my backtest, so I am still not sure yet if I will use this system with real money. (I have been using The Real Thing's 'First Strike' and 'One Night Stand' systems live with some success).

Ian
  • #150
  • Sep 8, 2008 11:09am Sep 8, 2008 11:09am
I sent you a PM.

Scott

Quoting paradoxical
Can anyone tell me how I find more info on The Real Thing's First Strike and One Night Stand? I did a search on FF and come up empty.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #151
  • Sep 8, 2008 12:10pm Sep 8, 2008 12:10pm
Quoting thehenryfam
Hello there. I don't put a lot of stock into backtesting. Blueace has been trading this system live for 8 months, and he's confident enough to now share it with the FF community; I think that speaks volumes.

This system has such a good risk:reward ratio, you only need to win more than 40% of your trades to be profitable. I'm going live with it on Tuesday.

Scott
Hi Scott,
Most systems are not 100% objective, so i have to forward test in demo before committing any funds to trading them. For those few which are objective, backesting saves me several months.
Even with this system, I do not take it as granted that I could achieve similar results to BlueAce - differant time-zones, brokers quotes, spreads etc.
No disrespect to BlueAce, but just because somebody on FF says they have traded a system for 6 months or a year and achieved 85% winners (and plenty of people have claimed figures like this) - is it safe to put your money on it that they are right and that you will also get a good result? That is the way that many newbies lose much money!
The only reason I went live with The Real Thing's systems so fast was that he had already been running the challenge for over 4 months ( with logged weekly results) when I came accross it.

Take care yorself, you can't count on anybody doing it for you,
Ian
  • #152
  • Sep 8, 2008 12:22pm Sep 8, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting Spice Girl
Just found this thread and wondered how much success you have with your other set and forget strategies.
Hi Spice,
If you look up in FF the profile of 'The Real Thing' and go to his blog, you will find the Forex Challenge. You can sign up for free for the details of his 2 free systems and regular emails on entries for them. They are set and forget, but they take real guts to trade with any serious capital - he claims he has had up to 19 losses in a row for one system - but says it is still one of the best out there (and I think he may be correct).

Quite a few people here at FF are/have been trading his systems. He is a long time pro trader and almost certainly the person who taught the DIBS system ( see the 'No Free Lunch' thread) to Peter Crowns.

Good luck in your search,
Ian
  • #153
  • Sep 8, 2008 12:31pm Sep 8, 2008 12:31pm
Hi, Ian.

No problem. I was just saying that personally I think it's preferable to forward test in demo or live (with small amounts) than to do backtesting on old data. But to each his own...

Take care,
Scott

Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Scott,
Most systems are not 100% objective, so i have to forward test in demo before committing any funds to trading them. For those few which are objective, backesting saves me several months.
Even with this system, I do not take it as granted that I could achieve similar results to BlueAce - differant time-zones, brokers quotes, spreads etc.
No disrespect to BlueAce, but just because somebody on FF says they have traded a system for 6 months or a year and achieved 85% winners (and plenty of people have claimed figures like this) - is it safe to put your money on it that they are right and that you will also get a good result? That is the way that many newbies lose much money!
The only reason I went live with The Real Thing's systems so fast was that he had already been running the challenge for over 4 months ( with logged weekly results) when I came accross it.

Take care yorself, you can't count on anybody doing it for you,
Ian
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #154
  • Sep 8, 2008 1:44pm Sep 8, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Scott,
Most systems are not 100% objective, so i have to forward test in demo before committing any funds to trading them. For those few which are objective, backesting saves me several months.
Even with this system, I do not take it as granted that I could achieve similar results to BlueAce - differant time-zones, brokers quotes, spreads etc.
No disrespect to BlueAce, but just because somebody on FF says they have traded a system for 6 months or a year and achieved 85% winners (and plenty of people have claimed figures like this) - is it safe to put your money on it that they are right and that you will also get a good result? That is the way that many newbies lose much money!
The only reason I went live with The Real Thing's systems so fast was that he had already been running the challenge for over 4 months ( with logged weekly results) when I came accross it.

Take care yorself, you can't count on anybody doing it for you,
Ian
Ian,

Thanks for joining the thread. I don't quite remember claiming to have a 85% win rate and I'll openly admit that I don't wish someone to trade my system unless they have done their own homework with it. I only claim results for my system working for me and my methods on Oanda. I also want to thank you for testing my system on another broker. The more brokers that are run up against this system will show if it will last the long haul.

I completely agree with you that newbies that jump on free signals are very good at making their brokers rich. I have just been a lurker so long on this forum that I felt I finally had something of worth (and worth is relative to the trader) to give back.
  • #155
  • Sep 8, 2008 4:41pm Sep 8, 2008 4:41pm
Quoting hoss
Hey guys. Looks like the only opportunity we may have so far for a trade tonight is the UJ. Will check in later tonight to see where it ends up, but it will probably end up greater than last week's average.
You're right Hoss it looks like we might only have 1 signal valid for tonight on UJ. We still have 6 hours or so to go. It might be tight.

That's just part of this system. For those of you wanting to trade please be patient. Looking for reasons NOT to trade are equally as important as reasons to trade. I've found that forex is a tight rope walk of looking between reasons to get into a trade and reasons to not get into one.
  • #156
  • Sep 8, 2008 5:47pm Sep 8, 2008 5:47pm
Quoting blueace
You're right Hoss it looks like we might only have 1 signal valid for tonight on UJ. We still have 6 hours or so to go. It might be tight.

That's just part of this system. For those of you wanting to trade please be patient. Looking for reasons NOT to trade are equally as important as reasons to trade. I've found that forex is a tight rope walk of looking between reasons to get into a trade and reasons to not get into one.
Well said.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #157
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:23pm Sep 8, 2008 9:23pm
Quoting blueace
You're right Hoss it looks like we might only have 1 signal valid for tonight on UJ. We still have 6 hours or so to go. It might be tight.
Would I be wrong if I say the UJ has fallen out of the trade possibility also? As of right now, 10:20pm EST, it is below R1 on the hourly chart. Everything has been nose diving canceling any chance of trades for today.
  • #158
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:52pm Sep 8, 2008 9:52pm
Quoting fkforex
Would I be wrong if I say the UJ has fallen out of the trade possibility also? As of right now, 10:20pm EST, it is below R1 on the hourly chart. Everything has been nose diving canceling any chance of trades for today.
You are absolutely correct. We are off the hook for this evening as far as the 'Pivot Net' goes. Today's movement just surpassed last weeks daily average.

That's the nature of this system. A no trade day builds character. It's all about what the market gives us. Not what we want to take.
  • #159
  • Edited 6:50am Sep 9, 2008 6:27am | Edited 6:50am
Quoting blueace
You are absolutely correct. We are off the hook for this evening as far as the 'Pivot Net' goes. Today's movement just surpassed last weeks daily average.

That's the nature of this system. A no trade day builds character. It's all about what the market gives us. Not what we want to take.
Hi, Using my indicator, I still had a setup for UJ last night/today.

I now see that there can be quitre large differances in the week's average range depending upon how you calculate it.
Strangely though, I have not been able to replicate either the OANDA or the IBFX values you guys are quoting for U/J.

At first I just added up the ranges of the 5 daily bars from my broker ( FXPro who is GMT+3). This gave an average of 142.

Then I tried using the hourly bars and taking each day's range from 00:00 EST to 00:00 EST and I got an average of 138.6, thus I would still have got a setup even if my indicator had just calculated the average for last week rather than for the last 5 working days, since I get a daily range of 134 for yeterday.

I don't understand why my last figures are so far away from the Oanda ones.
Edit - I found my mistake easy to miss a bar when its accross from my broker's day close - which is why I nees an indicator. I now get an ONDA equivalent of 167.8 for the Mon to Fri average daily range for last week.

Ian
  • #160
  • Sep 9, 2008 6:31am Sep 9, 2008 6:31am
Quoting blueace
Ian,

Thanks for joining the thread. I don't quite remember claiming to have a 85% win rate and I'll openly admit that I don't wish someone to trade my system unless they have done their own homework with it. I only claim results for my system working for me and my methods on Oanda. I also want to thank you for testing my system on another broker. The more brokers that are run up against this system will show if it will last the long haul.

I completely agree with you that newbies that jump on free signals are very good at making their brokers rich. I have just been a lurker so long on this forum that I felt I finally had something of worth (and worth is relative to the trader) to give back.
Hi BlueAce,
I know that you did not claim 85% wins, i appologise if i gave the impression that you did. My point was that there have been many people on FF who have claimed very high % win rates fro their systems - usually without any justification.

Ian
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