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Box Breakout indicator

  • #41
  • Feb 17, 2007 10:23am Feb 17, 2007 10:23am
High/Low of fixed period (four hours before Tokyo Open) with open/close lines.
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  • #42
  • Feb 17, 2007 10:26am Feb 17, 2007 10:26am
Open/Close box of same period as previous image.
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  • #43
  • Feb 17, 2007 10:42am Feb 17, 2007 10:42am
Detail of High/Low box with Open/Close lines
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  • #44
  • Feb 17, 2007 11:42am Feb 17, 2007 11:42am
Hapalkos, your indicator is gold! Hope you don't mind but i also posted the link back to your FF post here and the indicator over at the other site. Simply amazing Bro. I'm going to begin using it this week's open.

Humbled in your presence i did do the addition of two more boxes on the Time1 i'd been doodling on.

here is the screenshot of the $TrillionEntryBoxes.mq4 indicator which places the nice rectangles around whatever entry points/sessions you wish (up to six different chunks of chart time) :
http://www.accrete.com/fx-mirror/mt4...sionBoxes2.gif

Currently, the times are set as follows for my GMT+2 feed that shows daily close at 5pm New York. If you wish to change these times just go into the user data and tweak them as you need to, colors are changeable also.

extern string Session1start = "00:00";//Asian session
extern string Session1end = "08:59";
extern color Session1color = DimGray;
extern string Session2start = "09:00";//1 hour prior to L.O.
extern string Session2end = "09:59";
extern color Session2color = DarkBlue;
extern string Session3start = "10:00";//London Open
extern string Session3end = "11:59";
extern color Session3color = DarkBlue;
extern string Session4start = "14:00";//1 hour prior to N.Y.
extern string Session4end = "14:59";
extern color Session4color = Gray;
extern string Session5start = "15:00";//NY open to London Close
extern string Session5end = "18:59";
extern color Session5color = Gray;
extern string Session6start = "23:00";//last hour of NY session
extern string Session6end = "23:59";
extern color Session6color = DimGray;


Happy weekending,
Thom
  • #45
  • Feb 17, 2007 1:16pm Feb 17, 2007 1:16pm
Oh baby i'm ready for market open : ) got the GlennSessionBox thingy and the HapalkosDailyCandleBox thingy combined and ready to go. . . and a few tricks of my own. grin.

http://www.accrete.com/fx-atm/pix/atm2007-02-18ex.gif

Cheers,
Thom
  • #46
  • Feb 17, 2007 3:09pm Feb 17, 2007 3:09pm
hapalkos and Thom

WoW Iam in the presence of true genius, great work guys.

Now going to load it all and set it up for next week......


Well done.

Glenn
  • #47
  • Feb 17, 2007 9:09pm Feb 17, 2007 9:09pm
LOL : Glenn, you started me off on this silly (and worth while) tangent when you posted Time1...so who's the giant buddy?

Can you imagine any of this taking place (all the great minds and ideas freely being shared!) in any other "Home Based Business"?

No way. We'd be scrambling for our share of the market instead of helping each other bring home the bacon.

Gosh i luv this place.
: ) Thom
  • #48
  • Feb 17, 2007 9:23pm Feb 17, 2007 9:23pm
Thanks, hapalkos, glenn5t, and accrete.

This turns out to be a great manual backtest tool. I do look forward to let it work next week also.
  • #49
  • Feb 18, 2007 8:40am Feb 18, 2007 8:40am
Hey Guys,

Can anyone explain how these box breakouts work and when to trade them? I am new to this strategy and just want to learn.

Jim
  • #50
  • Feb 18, 2007 12:36pm Feb 18, 2007 12:36pm
Quoting Markj
Nice work Halpalkos,

I trade the box plays for early entries into my intraday strategies however I always keep an eye on the movement of price that has developed within the box, fundamentals for the day and Daily Range.

Looking at todays session, the price made a 100 pips gain from the close of the NY session Friday prior to any breakout. So a break of the box to the upside gives limited profit potential. The downside of the box is also 100 pips of range. Being that the average is approx 130 for the GBP/USD and we have already moved 100 pips with 105 - 110 for a breakout there is limited profit potential with limited fundamentals for the rest of the day.

A breakout of the box when price has already broken the previous high by 60 pips during the Asian session usually has limited profitability.

Some fo the rules I use for the breakout are price needs to be within previous H/L and has moved less than 60 pips within the box.

My target zones are normally 60 - 100 pips away from the breakout so the remaining average daily range needs to be able to reach the targets.

Cheers

@Markj,

You have presented some rules above:
1. Daily Range for GBPUSD is about 130 pips and therefore, to attain maximum profitability, box should not be more than 60 pips (or perhaps, half of the daily ATR?) And I assume that the Limit would be the other half of the Range?

2. box should be within the H/L of the previous day; I dont seem to understand this rule; is it to assume that you want to trade only when there is a retrace/consolidation?

3. In Post #6 of this thread, it appears that your box starts at 19:00 EST and ends at 5:00 EST; seems like a very long box; from my observation, GBPUSD doesnt move much during Asia sessions, it either moves during the London Session OR NY Session - seldom both.

Putting these RULES together, you seldom get to trade GBPUSD; you only get to trade this pair when it is quiet in Asia and London Sessions (or movement is limited to 60 pips). And you only trade this if the box is within the Previous H/L...

I assume that your last trades for GBPUSD could have been last Feb 6 or perhaps last Feb 2 and Feb 1? These are when the box is within 60 pips or so... BTW those were winners all. But Jan 29 was a looser.

Other BOX systems play NY Session (aparsai's PipBoxer) but having short boxes (15 to 30 minutes long)... Another box (flexbox) seems like a pure "breakout" strategy based on a consolidation regardless of session time. Halpalkos seems to suggest monitoring a 30 minutes before London Session and this apparently play the London + NY session (up to 12:00PM EST)..

Need more time and info to digest all these....
  • #51
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:19pm Feb 18, 2007 4:19pm
Thom

I agree this is a great Forum.

Iam concerned that we are making this to complicated, K.I.S.S is my moto.

The time zones are a great idea and to have them on the charts helps to establish opening time's but we are looking to trade the breakout therefore should we not be looking at two facts.

GBP pairs trade volume is low during Tokoyo therefore Frankfurt/London opening and the following two hours are always times of high volatility.
I do not see the reason for the 30mins before as this would put it right in the middle of Frankfurt opening and London, change it to a Hour before maybe...and i would agree on the 7.00gmt for a pair like GBP/JPY.

therefore a time zone 00.00gmt-08.00gmt is all thats required for the GBP/USD. Anytime with in that 8 hours the whipsaw will kill you..

After that a simple box based on H/L with a minimum three point contact is all thats require.

I also belive that a line on the chart set at the opening price and then add the fib nos 34,89 etc are a great guide for the strength of the move.

If it goes passed 34 then you have a trade.

I agree with Bk on the second item, and thats why I use the Fib No's.

Just my thoughts.

Glenn
  • #52
  • Edited 6:49pm Feb 18, 2007 6:33pm | Edited 6:49pm
It appears to me that the success of Box Play falls mainly on the choice of the box periods.

I tried longer duration as markj suggested and gets less trade with some loosers.
i tried short durations as halpakos suggested and gets whipsaws too.
I tried focusing only on the NY session and still get whipsaws as well.

Fundamentals released at 4:30AM EST (UK news), and 8:30AM EST (US News) should not be discounted.

Perhaps, dont trade if there are fundamentals to be released within the day. Yet sometimes these fundamentals agree with the earlier breakouts...



I assume that the height of the box (H/L) is the Stop Loss level. And using Mark's rules (trading only if the box height is less than 60 pips), at worst I get a 60 pip loss in case of "whipsaws".. Last Feb 15, it broke upward only to reverse when UK data was released. Umm.. on box plays, what must be the TP? Box height also?
  • #53
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:10pm Feb 18, 2007 7:10pm
thom.

i have just found your site, great job my friend.

One Question I downloaded the T3 indicator, have you revised it as the one I found on a MT4 site was a bit wacked.

have you done any work with Donchian channels....I have a indicator but not sure if its right.


Glenn
  • #54
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:50pm Feb 18, 2007 7:50pm
1
Quoting BurgerKing
@Markj,

You have presented some rules above:
1. Daily Range for GBPUSD is about 130 pips and therefore, to attain maximum profitability, box should not be more than 60 pips (or perhaps, half of the daily ATR?) And I assume that the Limit would be the other half of the Range?

I use this to set a max profit target for the breakout. So my Limit would be whats left in the Average Daily Range for the day.

2. box should be within the H/L of the previous day; I dont seem to understand this rule; is it to assume that you want to trade only when there is a retrace/consolidation?

If the box high forms outside the previous days high I consider how much movement may be left and if it's worth the trade. from my experience most of the time 80 pips is the most movement your get from a high or low of the previous day. So if the box high forms 30 pips outside the previous days high may be best to sit on the sidelines.

3. In Post #6 of this thread, it appears that your box starts at 19:00 EST and ends at 5:00 EST; seems like a very long box; from my observation, GBPUSD doesnt move much during Asia sessions, it either moves during the London Session OR NY Session - seldom both.

The box I use starts at the NY close to the Europe open and takes the high and low in this period. I would take the London open breakout for the trade.

Putting these RULES together, you seldom get to trade GBPUSD; you only get to trade this pair when it is quiet in Asia and London Sessions (or movement is limited to 60 pips). And you only trade this if the box is within the Previous H/L...

Mostly the box falls within the Previous H/L but when it does form outside then I consider by how much and what range is left in the day. I don't need to be in the trade. If I don't think there is enough range left for a good target or the price has already made a good move above a previous H/L then I won't take a trade.

I assume that your last trades for GBPUSD could have been last Feb 6 or perhaps last Feb 2 and Feb 1? These are when the box is within 60 pips or so... BTW those were winners all. But Jan 29 was a looser.

1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 9th, 13th and 14th were trades in Feb.

I also trade only with 50 period trend, CCI.

Other BOX systems play NY Session (aparsai's PipBoxer) but having short boxes (15 to 30 minutes long)... Another box (flexbox) seems like a pure "breakout" strategy based on a consolidation regardless of session time. Halpalkos seems to suggest monitoring a 30 minutes before London Session and this apparently play the London + NY session (up to 12:00PM EST)..

Need more time and info to digest all these....
  • #55
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:02pm Feb 18, 2007 9:02pm
Hi Glenn, thx for the kudos. Every indicator that has atm as part of the name has been tweaked by me, some are original...all are free to anyone to doodle except the atm_dobro.ex4 (it's the one with the lime-price data on the horizontal lines) that is a work in progress and labor of luv.

The T3 indicator you mention is the one that works in real time without crazy movements as the current candle is forming.

On the break out trading, the best one's i've seen have been breaking out of the Asian session when the box was fairly small (30 to 60 pips) and broke within the hour before and not more than 1 hour into, the London open.

On keeping things simple, i totaly agree. That is why i'm slowly removing lagging indicators off my charts one by one, week by week. As i recently posted in one of these break out related threads how much the BO trade suits my persoanlity and I'm reading them each concurrenlty (they are beginning to meld together in my mind...I expect an "Aha" moment at any time!). So what might happen from time to time, post to post is a bit of unintentional mix of the threads/strategies. I apologize in advance...but maybe something good will come out of it for us?

Mark i appreciate your observations and the post just before this one with your clarifying statements is a great read.

Cheers,
Thom
  • #56
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:39pm Feb 18, 2007 9:39pm
I have been doodling, trying filter out the false breakouts.....

I just said keep it simple and look at me...lol

first chart....time zones with a channel.

second chart....same with fib no indicator for TPs....

iam just demonstrating that i have no life outside Forex...


Glenn
Attached Images
  • #57
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:51pm Feb 18, 2007 9:51pm
Quoting glenn5t
I have been doodling...
...demonstrating that i have no life outside Forex...

What's mine is mine, What's yours is mine... (my exwife)
Well Glenn you can then honestly state that although your siggy file may be true, the ex can no longer tell you to get off your butt and out of that lounge chair at the trade station!

grin.
Thom

...proving that i'd don't have much of a life outside fx either...but my wife is sitting next to me, maybe neither of us have a life? haha.
  • #58
  • Feb 18, 2007 9:53pm Feb 18, 2007 9:53pm
Thom

Very True...lol
  • #59
  • Feb 18, 2007 10:00pm Feb 18, 2007 10:00pm
I did a little back testing on the asian box breakout.
simple rules, 20 profit target, 30 stoploss, entry at box break +5 (covers myspread). If up by 15 move stop to B/E.
worst month I had so far is +80 pips
best month was +222
I was very strick with my backtest keeping the rules
ONly about 6 months of backtest so far.
Im gonna try it again with a 20 pips stop and see how it turns out.

222 dont sound like much, but its better then Ive done on a lot of months real trading.
  • #60
  • Feb 19, 2007 4:21am Feb 19, 2007 4:21am
Oh crap. Just when I was getting ready to place some breakout buy/sell stops on a live account BOE announced the need to depreciate GBP.. true enough, gbpusd dropped 50+ pips!
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