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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #111,081
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:39pm Sep 7, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting anhxtanh
where do you see this level at 192.97?.market now still not open
193.50 already
  • #111,082
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:40pm Sep 7, 2008 2:40pm
Quoting karmostaji
who knew Mr. Paulson was going to do such a thing over the weekend, no one so if anyone who didn't use good money management, they probably will suffer and whoever did use a good money management, they'll take the loss and move on.

This is trading, not gambling.

you are a big advocate os look at your charts. The double bottom with the bullish divergence on the rsi gave the long situation away . I saw it , Lilmoe saw it ...

Others were married to the short and now they blame Paulson . The charts showed VERY clearly on Friday of an impending up move.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #111,083
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:42pm Sep 7, 2008 2:42pm
Quoting Pirin
193.50 already
wow! lot of action over the weekend. We need brokers that are open during weekend.
  • #111,084
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:43pm Sep 7, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting malcolmb14
According to my holy s**t indicator ..named so as the targets it gives are 99% spot on GJ is heading to 190.

Now 190 is an R5 level and could be a potential reversal level , HOWEVER is this is broken I hate to say this bears ... but 192 is on the cards

190 is ONLY a 50 % retracement of the move 194 to 186. With the risk aversion drop yesterday you have all seem to have gone a little nuts and forgotten the simple rules of trading ... what drops 800 pips WILL retrace to at least 38 % fib , but more likely 50% or 61.8 %.
We are above the 38.2% fib retracement , so the 50 % is the next logical choice at 190 ( also this is a level that was broken with NO retracement to it )

These are SIMPLE rules of trading and any newbies that have NOT taken profit on the drop down from 194 to 186 let this be a lesson NOT to be greedy.

Also If you know what you are doing nothing wrong with bottom picking as 186.47 now proves to be a double bottom on the 60 min for now and is the level to be broken before we see any more movement to the downside

Interesting how the market moved down so much on rumours of a bad NFP and today they are up.

Now i am NOT saying this is a reversal ... how remember a thing called elliot wave theory ...EVERYTHING moves in waves and as I kept on saying yesterday the RIGHT way to short the GBPJPY was to WAIT for a bear flag to form and trade the breakdown of this bear flag. This is currently starting to form .

Enough said ....

Attachment
Nothing to do with Paulson ... the charts showed this WAY before the news came out

In big down runs there HAS TO BE massive retracements
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #111,085
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:45pm Sep 7, 2008 2:45pm
Quoting pkimnyc
seems like we are going to fill the gap @ 197.5 area. what do you think it's going to do after it fills the gap? we have another gap to fill down to 189 area, don't you think so?
too early to speculate any upper line from the chart could be a level, but in order for the move to be perfect from last year high (251) it should have gone a little down further to 184 area, that's the whole 6765 fib number sequence, that would have been perfection in motion;

but, last Friday it just hit two important levels, the first retracement of the big swing move from 251 down, and, most important the last expansion from the current (last) down move;

161.8 expansion is the last resort - you cannot stretch it more than that, period. And it takes another bounce for another swing down - which will be for sure in the coming weeks or months.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_mouteki_0905e.gif Size: 15 KB
"Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money" - Danny De Vito
  • #111,086
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:48pm Sep 7, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting muzicmasti
price right now is at 192.97 huge gap.
Whattttt ..
The market doesn't wait for me to place long .. hiks .. hiks ..
Whoever has an open short since last Friday is in trouble .. I think many of you, isn't it? ;(
  • #111,087
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:49pm Sep 7, 2008 2:49pm
If 193 holds I hate to tell you this bear BUT we are going back to 197

193 is a very strong moving average resistance on 240 min (33sma ) upside from here could be 197.30. maybe even 50% at 201 zone .

Lilmoe went long 187 I think .I was there right with him

also those who say this is all Paulsons fault got to married to their short trade. Look at this 4 hour chart from Friday and this does not include the gap.....look at the double bottom , the dojis coming in the 2nd bottom etc etc .... loads of signs of a bear trap ... looks like it worked

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Click to Enlarge Name: gj.jpg Size: 220 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #111,088
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:52pm Sep 7, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting slide
too early to speculate any upper line from the chart could be a level, but in order for the move to be perfect from last year high (251) it should have gone a little down further to 184 area, that's the whole 6765 fib number sequence, that would have been perfection in motion;

but, last Friday it just hit two important levels, the first retracement of the big swing move from 251 down, and, most important the last expansion from the current (last) down move;

161.8 expansion is the last resort - you cannot stretch it more than that, period. And it takes another bounce for another swing down - which will be for sure in the coming weeks or months.

Attachment
we will have to see about that. if any of those levels, mentioned in earlier post, do not hold and breaks the weekly tl then i'll switch my mind about short. until then, shorts are still in the play. IMHO.
  • #111,089
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:53pm Sep 7, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting Pirin
193.50 already
already reach my stoploss
  • #111,090
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:55pm Sep 7, 2008 2:55pm
I hate it when new traders blindly follow things and get burnt like this

hands up how many were short at 190 to 186.5 .. did not take profit ...did not even move stops down to lock in some profit and are now -300 pips ?

how many over leveraged their accounts and now have margin calls ?

look back at your weekly charts of gj ...was there ever a 3000 pip drop with out a 1500 pip retracement ???? NO NEVER ... easy to understand that things do not go for ever

point in case housing market here in Vancouver has gone nuts in l;ast 4 years ..... 1 years ago I sold my place at peak making a ton of cash and moving into a much smaller and alot cheaper townhome till the markets come down 35 - 40%. Everyone here thinks I am nuts .... and they think the market will go for ever and are still moving up form condos and paying TOP dollar for houses . In my mind a 40 % LOSS ON 300 K IS MUCH BETTER THAN A 40% LOSS ON 700 K .... difference between house and condo
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #111,091
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:56pm Sep 7, 2008 2:56pm
Quoting malcolmb14
If 193 holds I hate to tell you this bear BUT we are going back to 197

193 is a very strong moving average resistance on 240 min (33sma ) upside from here could be 197.30. maybe even 50% at 201 zone .

Lilmoe went long 187 I think .I was there right with him

also those who say this is all Paulsons fault got to married to their short trade. Look at this 4 hour chart from Friday and this does not include the gap.....look at the double bottom , the dojis coming in the 2nd bottom etc etc .... loads of signs of a bear trap ... looks like it worked

Attachment
Well, I saw it long as well but didn't know it came out pretty quick .. didn't want to hold a position over the week-end. My original plan is to place a buy when the market open ..oh well .. may need to tweak the plan again ..
  • #111,092
  • Sep 7, 2008 2:59pm Sep 7, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting pkimnyc
we will have to see about that. if any of those levels, mentioned in earlier post, do not hold and breaks the weekly tl then i'll switch my mind about short. until then, shorts are still in the play. IMHO.

seriously pk .... are you not watching what is going on here ....

this is not a shorts in play scenario.

maybe now it is time to think go long on the pull backs

I am not an elliot wave guy but I think that last run down may have been a truncated wave 3 ... those elliot wave guys amongst us may be able to help me on this one

put it this way I am moving stops up on swing trade long and day trading the snot out of this both sides of the market loving this crazy volatility along the way
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #111,093
  • Sep 7, 2008 3:05pm Sep 7, 2008 3:05pm
Oh I don't know .... I just cashed out 550 pips and am considering short already ... :> But ranging market is more likely now.

P.S. But if I short it will be aud/jpy instead of gbp/jpy
  • #111,094
  • Sep 7, 2008 3:10pm Sep 7, 2008 3:10pm
the gap may be tested .. it is massive .. the big players may push it down to test for new sellers as they know that there are likely alot of bears lurking around trying to sell at higher levels once more.

however draw fibs on the weekly . If price manages to hold above 193 at the end of this daily coming up then think 38.2 % fib retracement... that is 197.30

that simple

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  • #111,095
  • Sep 7, 2008 3:10pm Sep 7, 2008 3:10pm
This gap up is great news for me and NO I'm not crazy enough to hold a long position over the weekend....

Within a week at the most, these will just be better levels to short at. Let the price action and indicators of your choice be your guide. The weekly 5sma should be a rough target to start with.

I guess shorts learned a tough lesson about holding positions over the weekend. Remember it only costs the spread to avoid situations such as this.

Happy trading!
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #111,096
  • Sep 7, 2008 3:11pm Sep 7, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting Pirin
Oh I don't know .... I just cashed out 550 pips and am considering short already ... :> But ranging market is more likely now.

P.S. But if I short it will be aud/jpy instead of gbp/jpy
you may be out to early

I just moved stop up to +300 and let her run

If price drops under 192.24 then maybe short .... but as long as that holds I am long
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #111,097
  • Sep 7, 2008 3:14pm Sep 7, 2008 3:14pm
well some people are happy like me! wining 550 pips, i think it can go a little bit more to the north so i will keep it
  • #111,098
  • Sep 7, 2008 3:18pm Sep 7, 2008 3:18pm
Quoting surtrader
well some people are happy like me! wining 550 pips, i think it can go a little bit more to the north so i will keep it

do not forget to move stop up to lock in some profits .. mine right now is at +300

this gives it loads of breathing room to retrace a little and if it reverses all together then I still make 300 pips

I am thinking 196 , but need to see how this daily closes
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #111,099
  • Sep 7, 2008 3:23pm Sep 7, 2008 3:23pm
yeah i also moved the stop to +350
  • #111,100
  • Sep 7, 2008 3:27pm Sep 7, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting malcolmb14
seriously pk .... are you not watching what is going on here ....

this is not a shorts in play scenario.

maybe now it is time to think go long on the pull backs

I am not an elliot wave guy but I think that last run down may have been a truncated wave 3 ... those elliot wave guys amongst us may be able to help me on this one

put it this way I am moving stops up on swing trade long and day trading the snot out of this both sides of the market loving this crazy volatility along the way
i agree with you and understand what you are saying. and yes, i see the bull power. all i'm saying is that i am staying away from gj until it is right time for me to go short again since i've missed this train already. if the short set up doesn't come into play when we reach 207.50 area then i'll know i missed the good entry for bull train, and stay away for a while. besides I have other pairs to trade with. gives me a nice break from the beast. it's been a nice ride down.
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