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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #110,981
  • Sep 6, 2008 9:33am Sep 6, 2008 9:33am
as GU already broke the last weekly sing high's any FT level,i studyed the last weekly swing high,see how the peak was match at 0.381 extension.
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  • #110,982
  • Sep 6, 2008 9:52am Sep 6, 2008 9:52am
Quoting PipChick
Technically speaking.....if price truely did spike to 190.26, then price is still under the 61.8 fib and also the 4 hr gann.If that fib holds then it is VERY possible we will break fri lo but if the 61.8 does not hold, shorts could be in trouble. I suspect that if it DOESNT hold then the 1hr chart will form a right shoulder somewhere above the 78.6 fib for an inverse hs.
Hi PC,

just had a wild thought.
I'm also looking @ the 61.8 fib and the gann on 4hr chart, but if the level fails to hold then guppy might shoot north to fill the gap. Here's what I'm looking @ daily, another 61.8 fib. Any thought guys?
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  • #110,983
  • Sep 6, 2008 1:29pm Sep 6, 2008 1:29pm
Just another way to track prices over the weekend.

http://www.forexrealm.com/forex-charts/
  • #110,984
  • Sep 6, 2008 1:32pm Sep 6, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting pkimnyc
Hi PC,

just had a wild thought.
I'm also looking @ the 61.8 fib and the gann on 4hr chart, but if the level fails to hold then guppy might shoot north to fill the gap. Here's what I'm looking @ daily, another 61.8 fib. Any thought guys?
hmmmmmmm nice possibility. Either way we should have some nice trading opportunities next week.
  • #110,985
  • Sep 6, 2008 1:42pm Sep 6, 2008 1:42pm
Quoting bigcoupe
Just another way to track prices over the weekend.

http://www.forexrealm.com/forex-charts/
the chart updates the weekend prices too?
  • #110,986
  • Sep 6, 2008 2:09pm Sep 6, 2008 2:09pm
Quoting evilglory
i also short UJ, at 106.63 ....... the 2 web site given just now seems wrong ( or i'm wrong ) if GU at 1.7678 and GJ at 108.06, then UJ should be at 106.95 right? or i got it totally mixed up? anyone can help?

anyone can check?
loss 100k in Forex, up 1k, still have 99% to go!!
  • #110,987
  • Sep 6, 2008 2:53pm Sep 6, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting seesaw
Help!!!! I got stopped out at 5:00pm EST and my broker is showing the px at 190.26. I've lost a ton of money and am so upset. Other charts are showing 189.06. WTF is going on?

Please tell me if I can fix this because I'm freakin bleeding!
you are stopped out .... Friday with bear flag forming and total market manipulation

I just hope you did not have to much of your account at risk ,.... I NEVER have more than 3% at risk on any trade

time like this it is VERY tempting to go all in .... and that is what kills accounts. I trade and you are wrong your account is gone.

The very BEST traders in this game are not ones that makes 100's of pips in one move ( karmo is a hero right now but I have also seen his postings where he has been drawn down 500 pips). The best traders are those that manage risk the best and man have I seen some bad risk management in this forum over the last few days

talk of treble digit returns on an account on a 600 pip move is NOT 3% max at risk

just my 2 cents
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #110,988
  • Sep 6, 2008 2:55pm Sep 6, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting pkimnyc
be careful. don't rule out 78.6% at 191.78 also.
see my posting about HSI ... 190 was target 01 , 192 target 02.. that is 78.6

those are swing trade targets ,,,, and been scalping along the way

already moved stop up on swing trade to +200 ....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #110,989
  • Sep 6, 2008 3:08pm Sep 6, 2008 3:08pm
188 may be a safe place to take a short position next week if the ascending triangle breaks.

187 1st target (bottom of bear flag ) and then 186

now if we do get a real break out of 190 in real market hours and not some BS late Friday market manipulation stop hunting move then we may well go to 192 zone.


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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #110,990
  • Sep 6, 2008 3:09pm Sep 6, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting seesaw
Help!!!! I got stopped out at 5:00pm EST and my broker is showing the px at 190.26. I've lost a ton of money and am so upset. Other charts are showing 189.06. WTF is going on?

Please tell me if I can fix this because I'm freakin bleeding!
unfortunately your money is gone.
always plan your trades ahead.
do not chase the price next time you trade.
remember to set stop loss and use proper money management.
when in profit, always protect your positions, such as moving your sl @ the entry +1 pip or more. better luck next time.

ps. please do not think you can become a millionair over a night.

hope this helps.
  • #110,991
  • Sep 6, 2008 3:10pm Sep 6, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting malcolmb14
see my posting about HSI ... 190 was target 01 , 192 target 02.. that is 78.6

those are swing trade targets ,,,, and been scalping along the way

already moved stop up on swing trade to +200 ....
  • #110,992
  • Sep 6, 2008 3:12pm Sep 6, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting malcolmb14
188 may be a safe place to take a short position next week if the ascending triangle breaks.

187 1st target (bottom of bear flag ) and then 186

now if we do get a real break out of 190 in real market hours and not some BS late Friday market manipulation stop hunting move then we may well go to 192 zone.


Attachment
thinking the same.
  • #110,993
  • Sep 6, 2008 3:25pm Sep 6, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting pkimnyc
unfortunately your money is gone.
always plan your trades ahead.
do not chase the price next time you trade.
remember to set stop loss and use proper money management.
when in profit, always protect your positions, such as moving your sl @ the entry +1 pip or more. better luck next time.

ps. please do not think you can become a millionair over a night.
hope this helps.

most traders that lose loads of money in this game break all of these rules.

I know forex traders that have been up 80% of their account , watched all of the profits swept away in one move , thinking that it will come back again

the secret of being in this game is to chip away at it

If you miss one move ( big down move) do not chase it , instead wait for the bear flag to form then trade it correctly , with the right risk management in place ( in a downtrend we will get several bear flags forming on the way down... nothing goes from point A to point B in one line). As a day trader I understand this and can make the most of both sides of the market.

I mean look at gbpchf for 5 min for Friday it was ranging but that range made 240 pips ... this is not uncommon for the gbp chf as historically it moves 140 pips in us session and 140 pips in London session .... and that is high to lows let alone all those lovely 30 - 50 pip moves in between

IF you have the right strategy you can pick up 50 - 100 pips a day EVERY day with little effort IF and only IF you wait for the right trade set up according to your plan.

Not only that but as i have said before ... essentially any swing traders who chased the price down under 190 and did not take the 350 pips profit on the big move down Thursday have now effectively lost 300 pips + 300 pips on move up and another 300 pips if price drops again to 187 zone. so in reality it is 900 pip loss not 300 ....although 600 of it is not real loss perse

In big down runs there are big retracements.

New traders have to realize this and protect profits when they are there. If you had 350 pips profit and did not stop to +150 then shame on you ....

I hate to be hard , but this is something that I have to drive home time and time again with new traders when they ask me for tips.

My biggest tip in trading futures , stocks or forex is learn about risk management .. it seems that some in this forum are lacking this
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #110,994
  • Sep 6, 2008 3:30pm Sep 6, 2008 3:30pm
Quoting malcolmb14
most traders that lose loads of money in this game break all of these rules.

I know forex traders that have been up 80% of their account , watched all of the profits swept away in one move , thinking that it will come back again

the secret of being in this game is to chip away at it

If you miss one move ( big down move) do not chase it , instead wait for the bear flag to form then trade it correctly , with the right risk management in place ( in a downtrend we will get several bear flags forming on the way down... nothing goes from point A to point B in one line). As a day trader I understand this and can make the most of both sides of the market.

I mean look at gbpchf for 5 min for Friday it was ranging but that range made 240 pips ... this is not uncommon for the gbp chf as historically it moves 140 pips in us session and 140 pips in London session .... and that is high to lows let alone all those lovely 30 - 50 pip moves in between

IF you have the right strategy you can pick up 50 - 100 pips a day EVERY day with little effort IF and only IF you wait for the right trade set up according to your plan.

Not only that but as i have said before ... essentially any swing traders who chased the price down under 190 and did not take the 350 pips profit on the big move down Thursday have now effectively lost 300 pips + 300 pips on move up and another 300 pips if price drops again to 187 zone. so in reality it is 900 pip loss not 300 ....although 600 of it is not real loss perse

In big down runs there are big retracements.

New traders have to realize this and protect profits when they are there. If you had 350 pips profit and did not stop to +150 then shame on you ....

I hate to be hard , but this is something that I have to drive home time and time again with new traders when they ask me for tips.

My biggest tip in trading futures , stocks or forex is learn about risk management .. it seems that some in this forum are lacking this
well spoken bro. i'm with you 110% on this.
  • #110,995
  • Sep 6, 2008 4:58pm Sep 6, 2008 4:58pm
Question about the fundimentals and how they wil affect G/Y.


Unemployment report aside, how does the Govt takeover of Fanny/Freddie affect the dollar? I assume it will hurt the USD. So what we *should* see it G/U going up and U/Y going down. Is this correct?

Now, let me take this further. Since the Yen is stronger than the Pound, I expect U/Y to move down at a greater rate than G/U going up. This equates to G/Y still heading south.

Do I have this analysis correct?

At writing, I show G/Y at 189.06 (bid). Is this a result of the plan from the Govt to take over Fanny/Freddie. I know this was talked about for some time but now that it has happened, I assume it is affecting the market.

Am I on the right track? I have been trading for 2 years and still learning.

B
  • #110,996
  • Sep 6, 2008 5:00pm Sep 6, 2008 5:00pm
Thanks for your post and all the good info,
Keep posting
  • #110,997
  • Sep 6, 2008 5:03pm Sep 6, 2008 5:03pm
Quoting pkimnyc
Hi PC,

just had a wild thought.
I'm also looking @ the 61.8 fib and the gann on 4hr chart, but if the level fails to hold then guppy might shoot north to fill the gap. Here's what I'm looking @ daily, another 61.8 fib. Any thought guys?
... Interesting, we did bounce of the gbp/usd monthly support and this Fannie/Freddie business will help to weaken the dollar. If a fib is drawn from the swing high to low, gbp/usd would close the gap at 50%. But that looks like it would take more than a couple of bars to reach. Well we'll see how the new week turns out.
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  • #110,998
  • Sep 6, 2008 5:14pm Sep 6, 2008 5:14pm
last day, i thought UJ is in downtrend..

as i see in daily chart, UJ break the neckline of head 'n shoulder.. even break up-trendline on H4..

but i doubt about my thought lately, last day movement which drag UJ up to 107.80 made me doubt about downtrend.. then there's anouncement on fennie 'n freddie this weekend, what do you think guys if the treasury inject billion$ as their promise?

"Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's biggest bond fund, and other large investors may put in their own money once the Treasury decides to inject government funds, Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer at Newport Beach, California- based Pimco, said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview."

imho, as long 108.30-40 hold, downtrend is still in play..

your comment please

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/1...818x477th5.jpg

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/8231/h4818x477gz7.jpg
  • #110,999
  • Sep 6, 2008 5:25pm Sep 6, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting GodfreyH
... Interesting, we did bounce of the gbp/usd monthly support and this Fannie/Freddie business will help to weaken the dollar. If a fib is drawn from the swing high to low, gbp/usd would close the gap at 50%. But that looks like it would take more than a couple of bars to reach. Well we'll see how the new week turns out.
it was just a thought guys.
  • #111,000
  • Sep 6, 2008 5:37pm Sep 6, 2008 5:37pm
Incidentally,on an off-topic note, I have been kicking the tires of Google's new "chrome" browser. Where it apparently excels at is speed and memory leakage. In other words you can open 80 tabs, and the browser will perform as if only one was open, no slowing down of your computer at all, that's really great (so far)
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