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  • #101
  • Sep 4, 2008 7:37am Sep 4, 2008 7:37am
I just looked at the numbers and it did look like a losing night last night. Seemed like the entries for long were at the point of exhaustion and it doubled back. Just one night though. It can be made up in later trades.

Blueace. I'll check my numbers again and include the pip fractions and see if that helps me with my numbers. Thanks for the advice
  • #102
  • Sep 4, 2008 8:05am Sep 4, 2008 8:05am
So, how did you guys end up on the week?
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #103
  • Sep 4, 2008 8:26am Sep 4, 2008 8:26am
Just had a quick question about entry. What if price is between pivot points? More specifically between R1/R2 and S1/S2.
eg.

Price is at 1.5000
R1 is 1.5050 and R2 1.4000

Would we put in a short order when price goes back up to R1? Or is it just too late to get into that trade?
  • #104
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:26am Sep 4, 2008 9:26am
Quoting fkforex
Just had a quick question about entry. What if price is between pivot points? More specifically between R1/R2 and S1/S2.
eg.

Price is at 1.5000
R1 is 1.5050 and R2 1.4000

Would we put in a short order when price goes back up to R1? Or is it just too late to get into that trade?
if you have already been stopped out on a trade don't try to make the same trade again. there is only so much movement available for each pair during the day and 'betting' that it will make it through the second time isn't worth it. risk small amounts and you'll live to trade another day. that's the goal. surviving losses.

while there were two losses last night (i'm in my third trade as I type with EJ) it also shows how strong R1 was. Both hit that point and turned around. The market typically says 'hello' to S1 and R1 in one way or another. Either by cruising right on by and waving or hitting it and retreating.

that is how this system goes. there are usually more wins than losses and our wins are greater than our losses. therefore the account should grow. very simple math.

If you are looking for a 100% hit rate on a system it does not exist. OR if you come across one it will work for a few months and then have a meltdown (as with no SL systems).

Once my last trade is completed I will post again and give you the system's results for the week.
  • #105
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:34am Sep 4, 2008 9:34am
Blueace,

Sage advice. I am just thankful for your teaching us about a pivot point system that works!

Your biggest "non-Misery" fan!
  • #106
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:41am Sep 4, 2008 9:41am
Blueace

I totally agree. There is no system, indicator or anything out there that is going to be right 100% of the time. Just want to understand a system that is right more often than not

In my example, I was just curious as to how to enter in that kind of situation. How would you go about entering if the market has already passed r1 or s1 on a fresh trading day? Would it be best to just leave something like that alone and check another pair? I think I saw that last night but I might have been looking at the wrong time frame (possibly 15min).
  • #107
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:43am Sep 4, 2008 9:43am
Blueace,

I am confused. You're in a "third trade" with EJ? I thought there were only two possible trades last night (GU and EJ) and that both were losses? Did you reenter EJ in the other direction or something? Once one of my positions is triggered, I cancel the one in the opposite direction. Do you not recommend this?

Thanks,
Scott

Quoting blueace
if you have already been stopped out on a trade don't try to make the same trade again. there is only so much movement available for each pair during the day and 'betting' that it will make it through the second time isn't worth it. risk small amounts and you'll live to trade another day. that's the goal. surviving losses.

while there were two losses last night (i'm in my third trade as I type with EJ) it also shows how strong R1 was. Both hit that point and turned around. The market typically says 'hello' to S1 and R1 in one way or another. Either by cruising right on by and waving or hitting it and retreating.

that is how this system goes. there are usually more wins than losses and our wins are greater than our losses. therefore the account should grow. very simple math.

If you are looking for a 100% hit rate on a system it does not exist. OR if you come across one it will work for a few months and then have a meltdown (as with no SL systems).

Once my last trade is completed I will post again and give you the system's results for the week.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #108
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:12am Sep 4, 2008 10:12am
Quoting Bobcat2
Blueace,

Sage advice. I am just thankful for your teaching us about a pivot point system that works!

Your biggest "non-Misery" fan!
haha...I'm here to help. I hope that you find this system a tool that you can add to your trading style that you are confident in.

This weeks results. (This is the systems results not my personal results. I missed entering the Tuesday night EU trade because I was recalculating my risk. I know, I know it should have been the same all week and an easy entry, but I'll admit that doing that cost me a winning trade).

Okay again...This weeks results.
For clarity 1 set up = two potential trades

EU - 2 set ups = 2 wins
GU - 2 set ups = 1 win 1 loss
GJ - 1 set up = 1 win
EJ - 2 set ups = 1 win 1 loss 1 break even
UJ - 1 set up = 1 win

WINS 6
LOSSES 2
BE 1

If all risk was taken as recommended then our percentages would look like this for the week.

6 wins = +9%
2 losses = -2%
1 be = 0%

+7% for the week.
  • #109
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:18am Sep 4, 2008 10:18am
Quoting thehenryfam
Blueace,

I am confused. You're in a "third trade" with EJ? I thought there were only two possible trades last night (GU and EJ) and that both were losses? Did you reenter EJ in the other direction or something? Once one of my positions is triggered, I cancel the one in the opposite direction. Do you not recommend this?

Thanks,
Scott
On the third post of this thread I address this. I mention that sometimes I will suffer two losses on 1 set up and sometimes I've seen two TPs on one set up. I choose to let them both stay open until 11 EST. As you can see today that paid off as it offset the two earlier loses. So for the day I was only down .5% instead of 2%.

I'm sorry if that was not clear. I will add this point to the opening post of the thread. Thanks for pointing it out Scott.
  • #110
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:34am Sep 4, 2008 10:34am
Ok, no problem. I may have confused it with another strategy on the forum. Thanks for the clarification. All in all, a super week for the system. Nice job.

Scott
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #111
  • Sep 4, 2008 11:12am Sep 4, 2008 11:12am
Quoting fkforex
Blueace

I totally agree. There is no system, indicator or anything out there that is going to be right 100% of the time. Just want to understand a system that is right more often than not

In my example, I was just curious as to how to enter in that kind of situation. How would you go about entering if the market has already passed r1 or s1 on a fresh trading day? Would it be best to just leave something like that alone and check another pair? I think I saw that last night but I might have been looking at the wrong time frame (possibly 15min).
Well the EU on tuesday night was a good example. I did not try to catch the trade. i am all about the market coming to me. I don't buy at market price ever. I've found that if I buy at market price it's more of an emotional decision than anything. Emotions and Forex are like intentionally slamming your hand in a car door. They both have great results.

And as far as last night. You must have been looking at another time frame. For our two trades you had at least 3 hours to enter your orders before they were triggered.
  • #112
  • Sep 4, 2008 11:25am Sep 4, 2008 11:25am
Quoting blueace
Well the EU on tuesday night was a good example. I did not try to catch the trade. i am all about the market coming to me. I don't buy at market price ever. I've found that if I buy at market price it's more of an emotional decision than anything. Emotions and Forex are like intentionally slamming your hand in a car door. They both have great results.

And as far as last night. You must have been looking at another time frame. For our two trades you had at least 3 hours to enter your orders before they were triggered.
Perfect. Thank you Blue. I figured it would be a bad idea jumping in if it's already within the zone but I just wanted to make sure. I think I'm going to give this another week or two of demo trading before funding an account and mini trading the system.

Thanks for all your help Blueace.
  • #113
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:12pm Sep 4, 2008 4:12pm
Days like today make a lot of systems look good. I just wanted to say be careful. The reason being today's move was not a hard one to jump on board. Any system that had 'sell' as part of it along with JPY should have banked some nice profits.

Make sure you stick to your rules on any system that you are using. And just 'tap the breaks' if you are thinking about jumping in at the market price anywhere. The recent USD corrections have made trading the US open a popular thing to do. I'm not claiming to know the future, but in the past those systems tend to fizzle a bit. Once the London session closes the market tends to get very quiet and barring a big news announcement or an unexpected one; trading that time period is not something I recommend.

I don't mean to be preachy; just sharing some of my perspective. I've had to learn most of my lessons the hard way.
  • #114
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:26pm Sep 4, 2008 4:26pm
Here is a spreadsheet i just came up with. it combines the first spread sheet( weekly pip avg ) and also PP calculator.

just type in high low and close and it spits out entry and exit. sl is on your own ( depends on your risk )

if there is some math wrong let me know and ill fix it
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Pivot Point weekly range.xls   30 KB | 483 downloads
  • #115
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:00pm Sep 4, 2008 6:00pm
blueace,

Do you have any entry today? I am using GMT+3 instead of GMT+4, personally I think a good system should work regardless of which time is used. According to your rules there shouldn't be any trades.

Besides, I am having ambiguity about the EJ trade last night that you have posted, as Scott pointed out. It seems to me that it occurred after 11 EST, even though it was profitable. Shouldn't you have cancelled all pending orders at 11 EST?
  • #116
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:41pm Sep 4, 2008 6:41pm
No trades tomorrow. It is Friday - plus non-farm payroll.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #117
  • Sep 4, 2008 7:00pm Sep 4, 2008 7:00pm
Quoting jlryan87
blueace,

Do you have any entry today? I am using GMT+3 instead of GMT+4, personally I think a good system should work regardless of which time is used. According to your rules there shouldn't be any trades.

Besides, I am having ambiguity about the EJ trade last night that you have posted, as Scott pointed out. It seems to me that it occurred after 11 EST, even though it was profitable. Shouldn't you have cancelled all pending orders at 11 EST?
Correct there are no trades for tonight. Friday's are inconsistent. Plus having the NFP tomorrow there will probably some big head fakes. My rules state: no trading.

If you want to get picky about my EJ trade from this morning; I'm game.
It took place at 10:05 EST. I was sitting here responding to a post when it was triggered. I'm pretty strict about keeping to my canceling orders rule. This order did not violate my system.

As for using another time period for this system feel free; though it's no longer the same system. I know you said "personally I think a good system should work regardless of which time is used." I have to respectfully disagree. Timing is everything in Forex. Timing is one of the few variables that traders have control over in the market. We decide when to enter and when to exit. By changing the time of setting up this system you are in fact invalidating all of the testing I have done for it. It is based on PPs at a certain time. If the time is changed the whole system breaks down.
  • #118
  • Sep 4, 2008 11:20pm Sep 4, 2008 11:20pm
Since today was such a big movement day I was curious to know what kind of overall movement everyone received from their brokers. (from the HH to the LL)

Here is what I got:
EU - 332.2
GU - 323.3
GJ - 740.5
EJ - 720.3
UJ - 287.3

We had a great week! Thanks.
  • #119
  • Sep 5, 2008 8:56am Sep 5, 2008 8:56am
Mine are very close to what you got, BA:

EU - 332.6
GU - 323.3
GJ - 740.5
EJ - 720.3
UJ - 287.6

Scott

Quoting blueace
Since today was such a big movement day I was curious to know what kind of overall movement everyone received from their brokers. (from the HH to the LL)

Here is what I got:
EU - 332.2
GU - 323.3
GJ - 740.5
EJ - 720.3
UJ - 287.3

We had a great week! Thanks.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #120
  • Sep 5, 2008 9:05am Sep 5, 2008 9:05am
Quoting thehenryfam
Mine are very close to what you got, BA:

EU - 332.6
GU - 323.3
GJ - 740.5
EJ - 720.3
UJ - 287.6

Scott
Thanks Scott for posting.

With such small discrepancies as that I'm fine. Are those Oanda numbers too?

I hope everyone walked away a winner from this week. Next week will be interesting for use because with such a high averages we'll have more signals for trades. It's important to make sure to keep your RR in check when we have a week like this one coming up.
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